Archive for adeiny hechavarria

Over the last calendar year, there are 139 qualified major-league hitters. Prorating their plate appearances to 600 per person, one finds that Mike Trout has the highest WAR at 7.2, followed by Russell Martin, Buster Posey, and Anthony Rizzo. None of that should come as much of a surprise, but the hitter right behind that group and just ahead of Josh Donaldson, Andrew McCutchen and Bryce Harper could provide a bit of shock. Over the last calendar year, Kevin Kiermaier has been worth six wins per 600 plate appearances.

Kiermaier, who has worked to improve his offense, is incredibly reliant on his fantastic defense for his great WAR numbers. While Kiermaier is a valuable player, it is possible that his WAR total is inflated by defensive numbers that are likely to come down over time. Kiermaier has logged roughly 1200 innings in the outfield and has a UZR/150 of 42.1, but only six active outfielders with at least 2,500 innings have a UZR/150 greater than 15, with Lorenzo Cain, Ben Zobrist, Peter Bourjos, Brett Gardner, Josh Reddick, and Jason Heyward falling between 16 and 22 — that is, roughly half Kiermaier’s current rate. Although he’s been good, Kiermaier is probably not the fifth-best player in baseball over the last year, and his defensive numbers should serve as a reminder that defensive statistics take some time before they become reliable.

Yesterday, I covered some players whose current WAR was potentially undervalued due to lower than normal defensive numbers in an article titled Heyward, Pedroia, and Your Annual Reminder About Defense. The present article renders yesterday’s title false as the articles together are now daily reminders, but this post should be the final one in this series with few, if any, more reminders coming in the near future. The caveat regarding small sample size from Mitchel Lichtman and our FanGraphs library is quoted more fully in yesterday’s piece, but to summarize: use three seasons of UZR when being conclusory about the defensive talent of any given player.

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The Marlins Top 15 list has a little bit of everything and the organization boasts some impressive arms. There are three left-handed starters on the list that have the potential to develop into No. 3 starters, if not better. The overall depth of the system is improving but it’s still not quite where I’d like it to be.

#1 Jose Fernandez (P)

Fernandez, just 20, dominated two levels of A-ball in 2012. The 14th overall pick during the 2011 amateur draft, the right-hander was considered an advanced high school arm but he’s been even better than advertised. He struck out 158 batters with just 35 walks in 134 combined innings last season. He has a four-pitch repertoire that includes a mid-to-high-90s fastball, plus changeup and two very good breaking balls in a curveball and slider.

Although he’s very advanced for his age, a contact I spoke with says Fernandez still has some work to do, including, “Learning how to pitch, reading hitters swings, and a better understanding of pitch sequences,” the talent evaluator said. The young hurler also has so many weapons at his disposal that he needs to learn when it’s appropriate to use each one for maximum effectiveness. Fernandez has a durable frame and should be able to provide 200+ innings with ease at the big league level. He will, though, have to watch his conditioning to prevent getting too big around the middle. Read the rest of this entry »

The mega-deal between the Toronto Blue Jays and Miami Marlins saw a number of prospects change hands Tuesday night. While Toronto loaded up on veteran talent in an effort to challenge for the American League East title in 2013, Miami looked to get younger — yet again — and acquired four interesting prospects. You’ll read more about each of them below, and three of them appeared on the recent Blue Jays Top 15 prospects list here at FanGraphs.

The potential key to this deal for Miami is Justin Nicolino. He was part of the “Lansing trio,” a name given to a group of three high-ceiling pitchers in the Jays system that also included Aaron Sanchez (the club’s second-overall prospect) and Noah Syndergaard (who is ranked third). I ranked Nicolino as the fifth-best prospect in the system prior to the trade.

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The Toronto Blue Jays organization boasts some impressive depth that stretches well beyond the 15 best prospects listed below. There were at least another 10-12 prospects legitimately in the running for the 10-15 spots on this list.

#1 Travis D’Arnaud (C)

Opening Day Age: 24
2012 Level: AAA
Acquired: Trade (2009)
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

The young catcher entered 2012 as the Jays’ top prospect and he did nothing to change the lofty status, although a knee injury ended his season prematurely in June. Had he not been injured d’Arnaud likely would have made his big league debut when MLB incumbent J.P. Arencibia suffered a fracture in his hand. d’Arnaud has the potential to be both an above-average hitter and fielder. One talent evaluator said the prospect was likely ready for the big leagues but stressed his value was behind plate and that it wasn’t overly likely that he would see time at other positions in an effort to get his bat into the lineup.

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Pitching is quite often ahead of hitting early on in the season but as you’ll see below there are still quite a few position prospects who are off to strong starts to the year.

C.J. Cron, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
Current Level: A+
2012 Top 15 Prospect Ranking: 3rd
Current Value: Holding Steady

Despite having his pro debut in 2011 cut short due to injury, Cron has come out swinging in 2012, taking full advantage of the friendly confines of the California League. The right-handed hitter currently has a 1.022 OPS in seven games, including a .556 batting average against left-handed pitchers. Perhaps because he’s seeing the ball so well he has yet to take a walk. Although his stats will no doubt be inflated by the league, Cron could very well hit his way to double-A by mid-year.

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