Archive for Braves

After a dominant spring, many hoped Julio Teheran had turned a corner. His disappointing 2012 campaign was attributed to a variety of mechanical changes, but offseason reports suggested Teheran had corrected those flaws. His tour of the Grapefruit League appeared to validate winter reports, as he struck out 35 batters in 26 innings and posted 1.04 ERA. While Teheran’s spring was cause for optimism, his first start of the regular season didn’t go so well, and the performance suggests there’s still more work to be done.

Last season, we discussed Teheran’s inconsistencies. Entering 2012, Teheran was ranked FanGraphs’ fifth best prospect in baseball, but he struggled to live up to the hype. To pinpoint the cause of his problems, I watched a random start from the 2011 season. On July 26 against the Durham Bulls, Teheran’s fastball velocity sat 93-95 MPH and frequently neared triple digits. His curveball, while erratic, showed promise. It featured a tight 11-5 break and, when thrown well, caused the Triple-A Rays to flail. His changeup was his best offering. After he established his fastball, hitters were helpless against his low to mid 80s changeup. His three pitch arsenal was electric and justified Marc Hulet’s ranking. Here are a couple of GIFs of Teheran pitching against the Mets in September of 2011, so you can see the movement for yourself.

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We know we’re going to strike out. That’s just a given with guys who have power. And we have a lot of guys who can hit the ball out of the park. And that kind of goes hand in hand. But you look at some of the studies — and our guys have looked at them — and there’s not a direct correlation with strikeouts and offense.

— Atlanta general manager Frank Wren, interviewed by Jayson Stark on 2/18/13

Through their first two games, Braves hitters have 24 Ks in 75 PAs. But they also hit six HRs, they scored 16 runs in two games, and they’re 2-0. They’re living up to expectations. Unfortunately, so are the Astros. They have 43 Ks in 97 PAs through their first three games, becoming just the fifth team in history to strike out at least 10 times in the first three games of the season. The team is 1-2 with just 8 total runs scored. So how relevant are strikeouts to a team’s success?
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Chipper Jones announced in March that he would retire at the season’s end. He cited various reasons for ending his hall-of-fame career and admitted that he was tired of living the baseball lifestyle. Always one to answer questions honestly in an era of generalities, he said that his decision was firm; no matter what, he was done once the Braves’ season ended.

As expected, his steadfastness to that decision has been tested, and reporters frequently ask whether he’s changed his mind. Maybe there’s a point to those questions. After all, Jones has a .379 wOBA and 2.9 WAR right now. And he’s on pace for his best season in four years. He projects to finish the season with a .372 wOBA and 4 WAR, and players don’t generally retire after posting numbers like that.

So where does his final season rank among career-concluding seasons throughout history. Is he truly going out on top?

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Craig Kimbrel is really freakin’ good. While his blown save in the final game of the 2011 season gave him a bit more fame for the wrong reasons, Kimbrel has been downright tremendous in his young career. He has only gotten better this season, and at just 24 years old, still stands to improve a bit. Improvements beyond his current performance would make for one scary closer against whom almost nobody would reach base.

Kimbrel has now logged 126.2 innings in his career, and has the following marks: 1.71 ERA, 1.46 FIP, 15.3 K/9, 42.7% K/PA, 45.4% groundball rate. He has an 83.5% strand rate, a .157 opponents average and a 1.01 WHIP, even with a relatively high walk rate. But he’s getting better in that area as well, as his walk rate has decreased each year: from 18.2% to 10.5% down to his current 9.1% mark.

Whether we’re looking at the career numbers of all relievers in the history of baseball, or pitchers through their first three or four seasons, Kimbrel ranks ahead of everyone in most important categories. This is only his third season — and second full year — in the majors, but he is off to a historic start. It wouldn’t be out of line to suggest that, through three years and 120+ innings, Kimbrel has the best numbers of anyone ever.

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Roy Oswalt is getting closer to signing a contract, and while his reported preference is to pitch for one of the Rangers, Cardinals or Braves, the surprising first-place Orioles are quickly emerging as a dark horse candidate for his services. The Orioles may have lost a recent waiver claim to the Rangers based on their better record — which is still strange to type — but an aggressive pursuit of Oswalt, with a relatively lofty salary for three months, may pry him away from the Rangers, the current favorites in his sweepstakes.

The Orioles have been diligent in their pursuit to date, with Dan Duquette avoiding the topic or speaking in generalities when Oswalt is mentioned. Though he may not want to reveal his hand, the club has to have interest in Oswalt on some level.

Pitching is one of their biggest needs — despite relatively strong performance early on — and he is the perfect type of pitcher for the Orioles to pursue: he won’t cost a ton for half of a season, won’t require a commitment beyond this season, and is frankly better than some currently staffed rotation members.

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Derek Lowe hasn’t lived up to his four-year, $60 million contract so far, but his steady contributions have been valuable to a deep Braves rotation.

Lowe is one of the more predictably effective pitchers. His walk and strikeout rates tend to hover around the league average, while he doesn’t allow many home runs and induces grounders at a phenomenal rate. From 2007 through this season, Lowe’s 60% groundball rate ranks second in the majors to teammate Tim Hudson’s 61.5%.

Despite being 38 years old and having about $21 million remaining on his contract through 2012, Lowe is reportedly on a couple of contending teams’ radars. The idea of Atlanta trading Lowe while itself being a legitimate playoff contender is interesting. Rare are the times when arguably the best starting pitcher available comes from a team thick in the playoff hunt. But for a team deep with starting pitching, a potential deal also hits on the notion of trading from depth and maximizing returns to fix deficiencies elsewhere.

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In 2008, the Atlanta Braves had a very disappointing season. I know, thanks Captain Obvious, but still, many analysts pegged them to at least be competitive and they essentially fell short in that regard. Granted, they lost John Smoltz after five starts, saw 13 replacement level starts from Tom Glavine before losing him for the rest of the season, made up that difference with slightly above replacement level performance from Mike Hampton, and saw Tim Hudson fall prey to Tommy John Surgery. Whew. By the end of the season, the rotation was headlined by Jair Jurrjens and accompanied by Jorge Campillo, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Hampton.

Here are the values of the primary Braves starters from 2008. Keep in mind that this only includes their numbers as starters, not bullpen appearances:

NAME               IP       FIP      WAR
Jair Jurrjens     188.1     3.59     +3.6
Tim Hudson        141.0     3.83     +2.6
Jorge Campillo    137.0     4.27     +1.9
John Smoltz        27.0     2.32     +1.0
Jo-Jo Reyes       110.1     5.04     +0.5
Mike Hampton       78.0     4.94     +0.5
Tom Glavine        63.1     6.02     -0.3

Put together, these seven pitchers combined for +9.8 wins above replacement. Glavine is not very likely to return in 2009. Hudson will miss most, if not all, of the season recovering from his surgery. Hampton just signed with the Astros. Jo-Jo Reyes was initially rumored as part of the Javier Vazquez-deal, and though his moving did not come to fruition, I think it’s safe to say he is not necessarily part of the Braves 2009 rotation hopes.

That leaves Jurrjens and Campillo. Smoltz will likely return as long as he can physically throw a baseball, leaving two rotation spots open. One of them was filled the other day, as Frank Wren traded a package of prospects for Javier Vazquez. And, if the reports I have been reading are true, and the Braves are offering that guaranteed fifth year, it seems A.J. Burnett will soon round out that rotation. What would this rotation look like compared to last year?

NAME              IP     FIP      WAR
A.J. Burnett     190     3.90     +3.3
Javier Vazquez   200     3.92     +3.3
Jair Jurrjens    160     3.84     +2.9
Jorge Campillo   160     4.12     +2.4
John Smoltz       94     3.57     +2.0

Campillo’s projection was a tad skewed due to Jorge pitching out of the pen and lacking much major league tenure entering this year, as well as the fact that it does not slot him as a full-time starter in 2009. I adjusted it to something in between what the systems are calling for, taking his rotation spot into account. For Smoltz, this assumes he only pitches 2/5 of the season or so. Still, even with 40% of Smoltz, this rotation would be worth 13.9 wins above replacement, a four-win improvement from last season.

What happens if Smoltz comes back and pitches more than these 94 innings though? What if he logs 165 innings at a 3.45 FIP, which would actually be his highest such mark since 1994? In that scenario, Smoltz would be worth +36 runs, or +3.6 wins as opposed to two wins. In that scenario, the Braves would be getting a steal with Smoltz, because there is no way he will sign a 1-yr deal for his fair market value of $18 mil. It would also add another 1.6 wins to the projected 13.9, bringing the Braves potential rotation to +15.5 WAR, an improvement of almost six wins.

We don’t know if Campillo can build on his 2008 performance; if Jurrjens can avoid the sophomore slump; if Smoltz will return and/or stay healthy; or even if Burnett will end up as a Brave. If all of this comes to fruition, however, the Braves could realistically put out an extremely potent rotation.

The 2008 season is officially in the books, capping my first full season covering baseball everyday. What a season it was, as well, with all sorts of events and storylines making for one extremely entertaining seven months. With that in mind, all of us here at Fangraphs are going to discuss some of our favorite moments of this past season. For me, one of the best parts of this season occurred in the early stages, and it involved following Chipper Jones and his quest for a .400+ batting average.

Nobody has posted a batting average of .400+ since 1941, when Ted Williams hit .406. Granted, batting averageis a relatively meaningless stat from a pure evaluative standpoint, but the idea of someone posting one of .400 or higher resonates in the minds of fans whenever somebody comes close. Rod Carew hit .388 in 1977; George Brett hit .390 in 1980; Tony Gwynn hit .394 in 1994; but nobody was able to reach Williams’ mark of .406 since then.

Through 20 games, Chipper Jones had 34 hits in 79 at bats, en route to a .430/.466/.709 line. After 40 games, he was 64-156, for a .410/.475/.679 line. And after 60 games, which took us past the halfway point of June, Chipper had recorded 93 hits in 222 at bats, producing a line of .419/.504/.676. From June 12 to July 9, Jones struggled, going 15-66, for a .227/.370/.424 line, ultimately ending his quest for the gaudy .400 batting average.

Overall, he finished with a slash line of .364/.470/.574, still fantastic numbers. With a batting average of .364, he fell just shy of Mickey Mantle’s .365 batting average record for a switch-hitter in a single season. Chipper won the batting title in the senior circuit, becoming the first switch-hitter to do so since 1991, when fellow Brave Terry Pendleton led the league. Chipper finished strong as well, hitting .408/.561/.612 in September to close out the season. And in medium leverage situations, Chipper did hit .408, so he managed to surpass .400 in one aspect of the season, but regardless, his quest for .400 well into June is my third highlight of the 2008 season.

The other night, while watching the Braves/Phillies game, I could not help but notice that, with Chipper Jones and Brian McCann getting a day off, Bobby Cox’s lineup looked terrible, registering a zero on the intimidation-ometer. Granted, McCann is still a regular even though Chipper’s days off are becoming the norm rather than the exception, but on September 22, this is the lineup Cox put out there, followed by their WPA/LI and OPS:

Josh Anderson, CF, -0.41, .649
Martin Prado, 3B, 1.10, .849
Kelly Johnson, 2B, 0.97, .799
Omar Infante, LF, -0.06, .762
Jeff Franceour, RF, -2.42, .653
Casey Kotchman, 1B, -0.17, .641
Clint Sammons, C, -0.56, .426
Brent Lillibridge, SS, -0.50, .515

Now, Kotchman’s numbers are with Atlanta only, Sammons and Lillibridge have yet to rack up 80 plate appearances, and these guys are not considered top prospects for nothing, but as a pitcher, wouldn’t you salivate over facing this batting order? Omar Infante batting cleanup? Seriously? Is that supposed to scare pitchers?

Interestingly enough, when Dave and I were discussing this, he mentioned that the Mariners recent lineups could give this one a run for its money. On the same day, September 22, against the Angels, the Mariners had this lineup:

Ichiro Suzuki, RF, 0.09, .753
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS, -2.16, .661
Raul Ibanez, LF, 1.37, .856
Jose Lopez, 1B, -0.27, .752
Jeremy Reed, CF, -0.70, .673
Timothy Hulett, DH, -0.18, .624
Matthew Tuiasosopo, 3B, -0.56, .395
Luis Valbuena, 2B, -0.29, .583
Rob Johnson, C, -0.41, .190

Again, Johjima is the regular catcher over Johnson, but it isn’t as if you would be inserting someone like McCann back into the lineup. Although, compared to Johnson’s .190 OPS, Johjima’s numbers likely would look like McCann’s. The Mariners lineup has Ichiro, Ibanez, and perhaps Jose Lopez as somewhat of a threat, while the rest do not look so good. The Braves have Johnson, a surprising Prado, a Kotchman just waiting to “bust out” and an about league average Infante. So, the question is, even though these might not be the exact everyday lineups of these teams, as an opposing pitcher, which of these September 22 lineups would you rather face, and why?

One of the issues of analysis Dave and I have discussed here numerous times is that defensive value must also be taken into account when evaluating a player. Without understanding what a player does for his team in the field, it is impossible to accurately evaluate him. Defense might not be as sexy as offense in the traditional evaluative sense, but it is very important. Which brings us to Yunel Escobar, the 25-yr old shortstop of the Atlanta Braves, who looked so good offensively in his rookie campaign last season, that Edgar Renteria suddenly became expendable.

In 94 games during that 2007 season, Escobar splashed onto the scene with a .326/.385/.451 slash line, and a 1.45 WPA/LI. He didn’t strike out or walk a ton, but posted a .367 BABIP that aided his line. Not to say he couldn’t continue to post higher BABIPs but we really knew nothing about his capabilities. In the field, the +- system had him at 0, meaning he was essentially the average fielding shortstop last year. Granted, he did not have a full season’s worth of chances, but last year’s numbers suggested he was a very solid hitter who would not necessarily hurt the team defensively, but would merely get the job done.

This year, things have seemingly reversed. In 128 games, he appears to be in a sophomore slump of sorts, hitting .286/.363/.395. His walk rate has risen from 7.8% to 10.2%, and he is striking out less as well, but the BABIP has dipped significantly to .312. His percentage of line drives has decreased, with an increase in the already very high groundball rate and the flyball rate. Primarily a groundball hitter, his 2.44 GB/FB last year has become a 2.37 rate this year. All of this has resulted in a -0.04 WPA/LI, which is extremely close to 0.00, making it safe to say he has been about an average hitter this year.

His defense, however, has been anything but average, as the +- system pegs him at +25, making him statistically the best fielding shortstop in baseball this year, nine plays ahead of second-place JJ Hardy. Last year, Escobar was a well-above average hitter and the average fielder. This year, he is the average hitter and a well-above average fielder. The problem is that next to nobody pays attention to the defensive side of evaluation, so he just appears to be in a sophomore slump or a decline. If he can sustain the solid defense, or at least some semblance of it, even if just half of the +25, and contribute at the pace he did offensively last year, the Braves will have one heck of a shortstop moving forward. Next year will be important for him as we’ll understand more about his true talent level both offensively and defensively.