Archive for buster posey

What type of contract would Mike Trout have commanded this offseason had he been a free agent? Coming off an MVP-award-winning campaign in which he compiled 9.4 WAR and about to enter just his age-25 season, Trout would have easily been one of the most sought after players ever to hit the open market. And given the state of this year’s historically weak free-agent class, the bidding for Trout may very likely have ended up in the $400-500 million range over eight to ten years.

Considering that Trout signed a six-year, $144.5 million contract extension back in 2014 – an agreement that runs through 2020 – this is just an interesting, but hypothetical, thought experiment, right?

Not necessarily. A relatively obscure provision under California law — specifically, Section 2855 of the California Labor Code — limits all personal services contracts (i.e., employment contracts) in the state to a maximum length of seven years. In other words, this means that if an individual were to sign an employment contract in California lasting eight or more years, then at the conclusion of the seventh year the employee would be free to choose to either continue to honor the agreement, or else opt out and seek employment elsewhere.

Although the California legislature has previously considered eliminating this protection for certain professional athletes – including Major League Baseball players – no such amendment has passed to date. Consequently, Section 2855 would presumptively apply to any player employed by one of the five major-league teams residing in California.

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Prior to playing on the biggest stage in professional baseball almost all ball players must take the long bus rides, live off late-night fast food runs and toil in the near obscurity that can be minor league baseball. For some players on the 2012 playoff clubs those memories are a little fresher than for others. With work well underway on the 2012-13 Top 15 Prospects lists at FanGraphs – due to begin in early November – I thought it might be fun to look back and see what I wrote about those players during the previous three annual prospect reviews. Below are excerpts from what was originally written.

The San Francisco Giants organization has received some key contributions from its system at key positions over the past three years, including catcher, shortstop and starting pitching. The club probably could have benefited even more if a little faith and commitment had been shown to some of its young players, such as Brandon Belt.

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There was a handful of crucially important series over this past weekend, and among them was Dodgers vs. Giants in San Francisco. The Dodgers came in four and a half games behind the Giants for first place in the NL West, and they were looking to make up ground in a hurry. They emerged five and a half games behind the Giants for first place, and according to Cool Standings, the Dodgers’ playoff odds dropped from about 23 percent to about 22 percent. That isn’t a very powerful sentence, let’s try again. According to Cool Standings, the Dodgers’ odds of winning the division dropped from about 12 percent to about four percent. Yes, that’s much better.

Plenty of things happened in the three-game series between rivals, as tends to be the case when you’re talking about three games. Some of them were a lot more significant than others. At one point, on Sunday, Buster Posey hit a home run off of Joe Blanton. The home run meant little at the time, and it meant next to nothing in hindsight. Posey batted with the Giants up 3-0 in the sixth, and he put the Giants up 4-0. The Giants won 4-0, and Posey’s dinger had a win probability added of about three percent. In many of the game recaps, Posey’s homer was given just a passing mention.

Yet what I want to talk about here is Posey’s homer. It wasn’t the homer itself that was the most impressive homer, although it did fly out to straightaway center field. It was more about the process that led up to the homer. I’ll let Joe Blanton explain before I start to explain.

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June is just around the corner and Super-2 arbitration eligibility is going to expire shortly for a number of top prospects. As a result, you could see a few big names in the Majors within the first two weeks of the month. Let’s see how they’re currently doing in the minors.

Stephen Strasburg | RHP | Washington: You know you’re good when people start off a sentence with: “Strasburg actually allowed a run in triple-A…” In nine starts this season split between double-A and triple-A, the right-hander has allowed 22 hits and 10 walks in 45.1 innings of work. He has a 10.42 K/9 rate, as well as a 69% ground-ball rate, which gives a pretty good idea of why he’s been so dominant. The club could definitely use his help, as its best starter (Scott Olsen) is on the DL and Livan Hernandez is not going to keep pitching with a golden horseshoe shoved up his…

Jeremy Hellickson | RHP | Tampa Bay: Brian Joura is looking at the Hellickson situation in a little more depth over at RotoGraphs today. The 23-year-old right-hander has been dealing in triple-A all season long. He’s given up 53 hits and just 12 walks in 58.0 innings. He also has a strikeout rate of 9.64 K/9. A fly-ball pitcher with a 31.5% ground-ball rate, Hellickson has done a nice job avoiding the home-run ball (Just two have left the yard all season). The problem for Hellickson – which is great news for Rays fans – is that there is nowhere to pitch him. The starting rotation is probably the deepest and most talented in Major League Baseball.

Buster Posey | C | San Francisco: The Giants organization and General Manager Brian Sabean clearly don’t think a catcher can improve his defense while playing in the Major Leagues. Either that or it really is about Super-2. This line of thought just might cost the club a playoff berth. Posey’s defense definitely still needs some work behind the plate but he’s not useless back there and he’s hitting .344/.435/.525 with a in 160 at-bats. He’s also creaming lefties to the tune of a 1.222 OPS. Veteran MLB catcher Bengie Molina currently has a wOBA of .332 on the year, which is 14th in the Majors amongst catchers with 100 or more plate appearances (Or in other words, he’s been OK but not great). Why not let Molina catch 60% of the games with Posey handling the other 40%, while also seeing time at first base and/or third base?

Carlos Santana | C | Cleveland: Santana continues to challenge Posey for the title of Best Offensive Catcher in the minors. The Indians prospect is currently hitting .306/.440/.551 with nine homers and five steals in 147 at-bats. He also has 34 walks compared to 28 strikeouts. The switch-hitter swings well from the left side and has a .324 average against right-handed pitching. Santana has also been excellent with runners in scoring position, as his OPS jumps from .875 with the bases empty to 1.269 with men on second and/or third base. Current MLB catcher (and fellow rookie) Lou Marson has a wOBA of .255. Enough said.

Pedro Alvarez | 3B | Pittsburgh: The third baseman caught everyone’s attention early in the season with a power burst but he’s been pretty quiet since that time. Overall, he’s hitting just .248/.333/.497 with 10 homers in 165 at-bats. The left-handed hitter has struggled against southpaws with a .205 average (compared to .264 versus RHPs). Currently third baseman Andy LaRoche hasn’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut. His wOBA is just .311 through 35 games, which is one of the worst rates in the Majors at his position. However, Alvarez’ struggles could keep him in the minors until September.

General Manager: Brian Sabean
Farm Director: Fred Stanley
Scouting Director: John Barr

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The system has a couple monster prospects at the top of the list but the middle tier is pretty impressive too. Things drop off a bit after the seventh man on the list but all 10 prospects have a good chance of contributing to a big league team before too long.

1. Buster Posey, C, Majors
DOB: March 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Florida State University
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

If all goes as expected, Posey’s minor-league stay was a short one. The catcher really has little left to prove in the minors after just one full season. The former college star hit .326/.428/.540 in 291 high-A at-bats in ’09 before skipping double-A and moving up to triple-A where he hit .321/.391/.511 in another 131 at-bats. Posey also received 17 big league at-bats at the end of the year. His hope of playing everyday in 2010 as the Giants’ primary catcher was dealt a blow this past off-season when the club re-signed veteran backstop Bengie Molina, but there is talk that he’ll see playing time all over the diamond, thanks to his solid athleticism. I’ve said it before, but count me down as someone who doesn’t like the idea. As a college convert to the position, Posey needs experience behind the dish to help iron out his receiving- and game-calling skills; his throwing was solid in ’09 (46% caught stealing).

2. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Majors
DOB: August 1989 Bats: R Throws: L
Signed: 2007 1st round – North Carolina HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, slider, change-up

In two seasons, Bumgarner has yet to post an ERA above 1.93. His FIP, though, has not been quite as sterling, and it’s actually risen with each promotion: from 1.71 to 2.05 to 3.56 to 4.60 in a brief MLB trial in ’09. The lefty has lost some velocity from his prep days, but it hasn’t bothered him much in pro ball. He held his own in double-A last season by allowing just 80 hits in 107.0 innings of work. His walk rate of 2.52 was solid but his strikeout rate of 5.80 K/9 was low and he’s a borderline fly-ball pitcher. The lefty has a good shot at the No. 5 job in the Giants rotation in 2010 with his biggest competition being Todd Wellemeyer. At the age of just 20, Bumgarner is probably not ready to be an impact pitcher at the MLB level just yet. However, don’t be too concerned about the lesser velocity unless it keeps leaking; it’s possible that he’s sacrificing miles per hour for movement and/or control.

3. Thomas Neal, OF, Double-A
DOB: August 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 36th round – Riverside Community College
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Neal just keeps getting better. In fairness, his ’09 numbers may have been helped by a good hitting environment. Even so, the 22-year-old outfielder hit .337/.431/.579 in 475 at-bats. His ISO rate jumped from .168 in low-A in ’08 to .242 in high-A in ’09. Neal has also shown solid patience at the plate over the past three seasons, topping out at 11.6 BB% this past year. He did a nice job of trimming his strikeout rate by 4% over ’08’s 24.1%. It will be hard for Neal to improve upon his .444 wOBA from ’09 but he has the talent to be a star corner outfielder for the Giants. Defensively, his range is better suited for left field but he has the arm strength to play right field without embarrassing himself.

4. Dan Runzler, LHP, Majors
DOB: March 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 9th round – UC Riverside
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, slider, curveball

A former ninth-round (under the radar) pick, Runzler has found a lot of success as of late thanks to his solid fastball – especially for a lefty – and his outstanding ground-ball rates. Playing at four minor league levels in ’09, the southpaw produced an eye-popping 64.7% ground-ball rate, as well as an incredibly-low 5% line-drive rate. After all that traveling in the minors, Runzler was rewarded with a trip to the Majors where he posted a 1.04 ERA (but 4.14 FIP) in 8.2 big league innings. He struck out 11 batters but showed that he still has some work to do with his control by walking five batters. The former UC Riverside hurler has gone from little-known middle reliever to a potential MLB closer down the road.

5. Roger Kieschnick, OF, High-A
DOB: January 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Texas Tech University
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

After not getting into game action in ’08, Kieschnick made up for lost time with a solid pro debut in high-A ball. He hit .296/.345/.532 and showed the plus power that he was known for in college (.236 ISO). The outfielder did have some troubling plate rates, though, with a low walk rate of 6.4% and a high strikeout rate of 25.1%. On the plus side, he has little pro experience so he has room (and time) to improve. The left-handed hitter did a nice job of handling southpaws by posting a .933 OPS on the heels of a .400 BABIP. His OPS against right-handers was .832. Kieschnick is a hustler on the base paths and in the field despite average speed. He also has the arm strength for right field.

6. Brandon Crawford, SS, Double-A
DOB: January 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 4th round – UCLA
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Crawford is an interesting prospect because people either love him (and see him as a regular big league contributor) or they hate him (and see him as a big league utility player at best). Not really known for his bat in college, Crawford had a lot of success in the lower minors and hit .371/.445/.600 in 105 high-A at-bats to being the ’09 season. The shortstop had a more difficult time in double-A, though, and hit .258/.294/.365 in 392 at-bats in a much more difficult league to hit in than the high-A California League. At the heart of Crawford’s problems at the dish are his plate rates. His walk rate dipped to 4.7% in double-A and his strikeout rate was 25.5% (while his power dipped from .229 to .107 after his promotion). Crawford may not hit for a high average in the Majors, but he could slug 15-20 homers and play above-average defense. At worst, I see him developing into former Blue Jay and Cub Alex Gonzalez.

7. Ehire Adrianza, SS, Low-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A gifted fielder, Adrianza can take his time developing his raw skills thanks to the presence of Crawford ahead of him. The slick Venezuelan showed some improvements at the plate in ’09 at low-A ball by hitting .258/.333/.327 in 388 at-bats. He clearly does not have much power right now (.070 ISO) and he also does not steal many bases (seven successes in eight tries) so Adrianza is currently a singles-hitter. As such, he currently projects as a possible Gold Glove infielder who will hit eighth in a National League lineup. He clearly tired late in ’09 and hit below .220 in August and September.

8. Clayton Tanner, LHP, High-A
DOB: December 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 3rd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 86-89 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Tanner isn’t flashy and he doesn’t have a great fastball, but the southpaw has been very successful in the minors. He posted a career-high 4.15 FIP in ’09 but he was pitching in the hitter-friendly California League (for the second straight year). Tanner showed improvements by reducing his hits allowed (132 in 139.1 IP) and he improved his strikeout rate to 7.82 K/9 while also showing solid control (2.71 BB/9). He was, though, hurt by the long-ball with a HR/9 rate of 1.16. With his narrow margin for error, it would be nice to see him improve upon his 46.5% ground-ball rate. He certainly performs better again left-handed hitters (0.96 vs 1.28 WHIP) so he should have a career in the bullpen at the very least.

9. Francisco Peguero, OF, Low-A
DOB: June 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

First the good: Peguero, 21, has hit like a mad man in North America, including a .340 average in low-A in ’09. Now the bad news: His walk rate was 2.0 BB% and his BABIP was .396. Moving back to positives, the outfielder also stole 22 bases in 27 tries in ’09. A solid defensive outfielder, Peguero is goes all out in the field and at the plate, which helps to explain his low walk rate. His arm strength is also off the charts. Along with his over-aggressive approach, Peguero needs to learn to drive the ball more consistently.

10. Waldis Joaquin, RHP, Majors
DOB: December 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2003 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 91-95 mph fastball, plus slider, change-up

The 10th man was a difficult decision and I went with a good arm, but one that projects as a reliever. Joaquin has been kicking around the system for more than seven seasons but he’s still just 23 years old. The right-hander still struggles with his control but he did a nice job of missing bats in both triple-A and the Majors in ’09. He also did not give up a homer last year until he reached the big leagues (zero in 64.0 innings), in part due to solid ground-ball rates (50% in ’09). The fastball-slider pitcher averaged 96 mph with his heater in the Majors. Despite relying on the slider and showing questionable control against them (5.86 BB/9), Joaquin dominated left-handed batters by holding them to a .140 batting average.

Up Next: The Texas Rangers

The Arizona Fall League rosters were announced by Major League Baseball last week. The league allows up-and-coming prospects (usually from high-A and double-A levels, as well as recent high draft picks) to continue honing their skills away from the fall instructional leagues held by each organization. Play will begin in early October and run until late November with the six teams – each one made up of five organizations’ players – continually facing each other.

Over the next week, we’ll take a look at some of the more interesting names on each team. The rosters that were recently released are preliminary rosters and some players will be added, while others could be removed. Yesterday, we took a look at the Phoenix Desert Dogs. Today, we’ll have a peek at the Scottsdale Scorpions roster.

The Scottsdale Scorpions (Click HERE for the entire roster)
Arizona, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Colorado

Daniel Moskos | LHP | Pittsburgh
The Scottsdale squad does not feature many truly interesting pitching names, although Moskos does stand out as a former No. 1 draft pick of the Pirates. The left-hander has had a disappointing pro career to this point, although you may enjoy the 3.84 ERA in double-A… but the ground-ball rate of 54.3% is more impressive. Moskos has been too hittable but with a better defense behind him, he should have a little better luck. The strikeout rate in the past three years has plummeted, which is troubling (9.24 to 6.36 to 4.20 K/9).

Buster Posey | C | San Francisco
Teams have become very conscious of service time, so it would not be a surprise to see Posey begin 2010 in triple-A. With that said, the bat and glove are both ready for the Majors. If possible, the best scenario would be for San Francisco to resign veteran Bengie Molina to split the catching duties with Posey next year. Whether Molina would accept that type of playing time remains to be seen. The Giants prospect should eventually become a very real (and much-needed) threat in the heart of the club’s lineup.

Wilin Rosario | C | Colorado
The Rockies organization was extremely aggressive with Rosario after his breakout 2008 season in short-season ball. He was jumped over low-A ball and the 20 year old spent the season in high-A. Not surprisingly, Rosario struggles in April and May before finding his footing over the next two months. Injuries then wiped out August so the Dominican native will be fresher than most of the catchers in the league.

Brandon Allen | 1B | Arizona
A busy year for Allen is only going to get busier. The first-base prospect has played for four teams already this year – including making his MLB debut with Arizona – and he’ll join his fifth club in the AFL. Currently in the Majors, Allen is holding his own and the 23 year old has a shot at being the Diamondbacks’ opening day first baseman in 2010.

Hector Gomez | SS | Colorado
Gomez is a very promising prospect, but the Rockies organization would no doubt like to see him spend a little more time on the field. After missing all but one game in 2008, the shortstop missed significant time in April and June of this year. Gomez is a good defensive player but he needs a lot more work on his approach at the plate, including his walk rate which was at 4.3% this year at high-A ball.

Domonic Brown | OF | Philadelphia
A two-sport prep star, Brown has quickly become quite the baseball player ever since he began focusing on the sport on a full-time basis. He has made himself into a five-tool player with the increase in power this season; his ISO increased from .126 in 2008 to .212 in ’09. Brown also has the ability to hit .300 and steal 20-30 bases in a full season.

Jose Tabata | OF | Pittsburgh
On the plus side, Tabata has shown the ability to hit for a consistently-high average despite playing at double-A and triple-A in 2009. On the downside, his power has yet to develop and he’s had trouble staying on the field due to injuries. His off-the-field lifestyle is also questionable, as is his actual age. Tabata, though, is showing signs of being ready to contribute in Pittsburgh by mid-2010 at the latest.

It’s great when things work out as planned. The San Francisco Giants management no doubt has its collective fingers crossed that catching prospect Buster Posey’s promotion from high-A to triple-A goes smoothly. If it does, the organization can bid farewell to incumbent MLB catcher Bengie Molina, whose contract is set to expire at the end of the 2009 season. The changing of the guard could save the club about $5.5 million per year, at least until Posey hits arbitration.

The club’s first-round selection (fifth overall) from the 2008 draft out of Florida State University, Posey was originally a high school shortstop, who moved behind the dish in his sophomore season of college. The right-handed hitter took to the position immediately and is well on his way to becoming an above-average backstop and future Gold Glove candidate. Despite having a few rough edges behind the plate, Posey has made just four errors in his pro career (70 games) and he’s thrown out 47% of the runners attempting to steal against him. He’s also made huge strides in his game calling and receiving.

At the plate, the Georgia native swings a potent bat. Prior to his promotion, Posey was hitting .326/.428/.540 with 13 homers in 291 at-bats. He also had as many walks as strikeouts (45) and was perfect running the bases (six steals in as many attempts). Posey was hitting .280 against right-handed pitchers and .440 versus southpaws. He hit more than .357 in each month except May, when he slumped to a line of .245/.319/.382.

Posey’s promotion to triple-A was actually supposed to have happened a few weeks ago but a mild concussion slowed the transaction. After he hit .405 with 10 RBI in the previous 10 games, though, the Giants organization pulled the trigger. The 22-year-old backstop appeared in just 10 games in 2008 after signing his $6.2 million contract, which makes his quick ascent through the minors in 2009 all the more impressive.

Molina has been a solid and consistent performer at the plate and behind the dish for the Giants over the past three seasons. However, he’s turning 35 next week and his body type does not age well. If he’s open to the suggestion, the Giants could bring him back on a one-year deal to serve as Posey’s mentor.

2008 Draft Slot: Fifth overall
Top Pick: Buster Posey, C, Florida State University
Best Pick: Buster Posey
Keep an Eye On: Brandon Crawford, SS, UCLA (4th round)
Notes: I’ve been on the Brandon Crawford bandwagon for a couple months now, and the reputation for having a good glove but no bat is starting to be shed. After a very good performance in A-ball, Crawford is already in double-A, although the strikeouts are starting to catch up to him. LHP Scott Barnes (St. John’s University) is another quality sleeper to keep an eye on. Supplemental first round pick Conor Gillaspie has already been in the Majors, but it was a contract stipulation, and it was not based on his production (He’s having a respectable, but unspectacular, season in ’09). Buster Posey, on the other hand, is knocking on the door for a promotion to double-A.

2007 Draft Slot: 10th overall
Top Pick: Madison Bumgarner, LHP, North Carolina high school
Best Pick: Madison Bumgarner
Worst Pick: Wendell Fairley, OF, Mississippi high school (Supplemental first round)
Notes: What is in the water in North Carolina…? Prospects just seem to come out of the woodwork, whether it’s through the prep or the college ranks. Madison Bumgarner, in less than two full years, has risen to double-A and is one of the Top 3 pitching prospects in all of baseball. The club’s other first-round pick, Tim Alderson, is another excellent pitching prospect, who was also taken out of high school and is also in double-A. With six choices before the second round, the club made a number of overdrafts to save money, rather than really reap the benefits of the once-in-a-decade (or more) opportunity to restock the system. Picks such as Wendell Fairley (29th overall), Jackson Williams (43rd) and Charlie Culberson (51st) were all picked well ahead of where many teams had them ranked going into the draft.

2006 Draft Slot: 10th overall
Top Pick: Tim Lincecum, RHP, University of Washington
Best Pick: Um, Tim Lincecum
Worst Pick: Mike McBryde, OF, Florida Atlantic (5th round)
Notes: Tim Lincecum is, as you likely know, already one of the best pitchers in the National League. The club lacked a second round pick thanks to its foray into the free agent market. Supplemental first round draft pick Emmanuel Burriss is contributing in the Majors right now. California prep pick Clayton Tanner (3rd round) is moving slowly, but the southpaw is having some solid pro results. Mike McBryde has not been a terrible pick, but he’s a tweener and is looking at a career as a triple-A outfielder and occasional injury fill-in at the MLB level… Not bad work if you can get it.

2009 Draft Slot: Sixth overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): They take the best player available and do a great job of it
MLB Club Need: First base, Relief pitching
Organizational Need: Depth just about everywhere on the diamond
Organizational Strength: Pitching, although the depth is not there, Shortstop
Notes: The Giants organization has a very straight forward draft this season with no extra picks and no lost selections. The club will have the opportunity to take an impact player at No. 6, should it choose to. Everyone knows the organization needs quality hitting prospects but the best draftees available in this spot project to be pitchers. Prep right-hander Tyler Matzek is a name being associated with the Giants by most reputable mock drafts (Baseball America, ESPN, Baseball Prospectus).