Archive for Cardinals

Scorching starts from unexpected players are great for the game of baseball as they remind us anything can happen. Who expected Edinson Volquez to jump out of the gate like this? Similarly, insane starts from usually great players often hog the media spotlight as well (See: Lance Berkman, Chipper Jones, Chase Utley). One thing in common for both of these groups is that they obstruct our knowledge or view of great players off to great—albeit not insane—starts.

That’s where Albert Pujols comes in. Arguably the best offensive player in the game today, Pujols has seemingly been lost in the shuffle this season. Perhaps I’ve been watching too many House MD reruns instead of ESPN but, if I recall correctly, the only times Pujols has really been seen in-depth on the channel are when he almost fought Brandon Backe and when he single-handedly took out the Padres battery.

If he was posting average or below average numbers this might make more sense, but, as of right now, Pujols currently has a .366/.486/.644 slash line, a 1.130 OPS, and 14 HR-39 RBI. Could the problem be that consistency is boring? We know Pujols will perform at a high level so it isn’t as meaningful as it would be if, say, Ryan Ludwick was off to a really hot start? As odd as it may be, the consistency=boring aspect of fandom is very true. Not to say fans don’t appreciate the performance but the unexpected players performing great seem to bring the spontaneity that sparks excitement.

So, in honor of the still-just-28 yrs old Pujols, here are his current ranks:

5th in WPA, 2.49
3rd in BA, .366
2nd in OBP, .486
4th in SLG, .644
3rd in OPS, 1.130
3rd in BRAA, 27.72
2nd in REW, 2.75
2nd in WPA/LI, 2.82
1st in BB, 47

Pujols ranks in the top five, in all of baseball, in these categories and, not surprisingly, those in front of him in many of them are: Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, Chase Utley, and Josh Hamilton. It’s human nature to like the other stories better than Pujols’s hot start but do not mistake him not being featured in magazines and television shows as often with a decline in performance. He’s still Albert Pujols and, if his BB and K rates are any type of indicator, he’s still improving.

In order to quell the somewhat heated Tony La Russa and Scott Rolen situation in St. Louis, the Cardinals shipped the disgruntled third baseman to the Blue Jays in exchange for Troy Glaus. The move catalyzed a frenzy of “this should benefit both teams” reactions, primarily due to both players experiencing recent downward trends in success. Rolen has been very injury prone in recent years while some speculate Glaus’s struggles are a direct result of no longer “allegedly” taking steroids. Approximately one-fourth of the way through the season, how is this exchange looking?

Glaus Facts
.230/.357/.357 Slash Line
1 HR, 21 RBI
16.6 BB%, 22.2 K%
.289 BABIP, .284 Career BABIP
18.0/36.0/46.0 LD/GB/FB, 19.2/35.6/45.2 Career LD/GB/FB
-3.21 BRAA, -0.32 REW
-0.50 WPA, 5.12 Games Advanced

Glaus’s SLG has struggled in the early going primarily due to hitting just one home run. His BABIP and BIP rates are all very similar to his career rates. Despite this, he clearly is not producing at his standard level. His struggles have cost the Cardinals about 1/3 of a game via Run Expectancy and 1/2 of a game via Win Probability. Games Advanced can be found by +WPA minus -WPA, and shows how many games a players efforts have effected; whether positive or negative, Glaus has had an effect on five of the Cardinals games.

His swing data shows an increase above his career rates in swings both inside and outside of the strike zone. His contact rate in the zone is four percent higher than his career averages while his contact rate outside of the zone is about five percent less. Overall, though, he is making more contact in the early going… he just must not be doing much with that contact.

Rolen Facts
In just 65 PA through 16 GP
.316/.385/.561 Slash Line
9.5 BB%, 12.3 K%
.333 BABIP, .314 Career BABIP
27.5/29.4/43.1 LD/GB/FB, 21.8/33.7/44.6 Career LD/GB/FB
1.45 BRAA, 0.14 REW
0.17 WPA, 2.81 Games Advanced

The first area that jumps out is his high line drive rate. Rolen may end up in future conversations about very high LD% but it is more likely he will regress closer to the 21-23% range. He seems to be swinging less at pitches in the zone while making more contact with those pitches, relative to his career totals. He has also maintained his career swing rate at pitches out of the zone while increasing his contact by seven percent.

Overall
It’s too early to discuss anything significant with regards to Rolen’s numbers but Glaus simply has not done too well in the first quarter of the season. Rolen, as Dave mentioned earlier tonight, has been one of just two players with positive BRAAs on the anemic Blue Jays offense, and he has only played in 16 games. If the season were to end today, for whatever reason, this trade would appear to be in the Blue Jays favor. In another month, who knows?

If Rolen continues to get hurt, and Glaus doesn’t improve, this won’t be a trade that benefits both teams but rather one that provides equal and mediocre production to the Cardinals and Blue Jays.

In his inaugural post here Dave Cameron wrote about Gabe Kapler’s return to the major leagues and how his production had more than made up for slow starts from Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. Last night, Kapler again came through as his 12th inning heroics propelled the Brewers to a walk-off victory against the Cardinals. With one out and the score tied at eight, Gabe Gross walked and promptly stole second off of Jason Isringhausen. Kapler lined a single to centerfield allowing Gross to race home with the winning run. Thrilled with Gross’s efforts to get into scoring position the Brewers quickly traded him to the Rays following the game. “Some day,” Gross remarked.

In a game where both managers utilize the pitcher batting eighth strategy, convention goes by the wayside before the first pitch is even thrown; however, this game had a number of odd occurrences. For starters, Albert Pujols made his first-ever major league appearance at second base when Cesar Izturis left the game. Apparently, Pujols lobbied Tony LaRussa to let him play shortstop but had to settle for second base. He made two plays in the field: a forceout at second as well as catching the throw on Gross’s stolen base in the 12th.

As mentioned in the opening, two guys named Gabe won the game for the Brewers. This brought Gabe White to his feet.

A few days ago I wrote about Brian Shouse and his success in stranding runners. Well, Shouse entered the seventh inning last night with the bases loaded and allowed all three inherited runners to score as well as a run of his own. Thanks, Brian. Combine that with Corey Patterson’s results following Dave’s article and we might be in the midst of a Fangraphs Jinx.

Eric Gagne blew his fourth save in ten chances. This might not seem too odd to many people, though. This particular blown save could have been avoided if Rickie Weeks makes a better throw or Prince Fielder scoops up a ball in the dirt to complete a tailor-made double play.

Three starting pitchers pinch hit in this game: Adam Wainwright hit a sac fly, Braden Looper laid down a nice sac bunt, and Jeff Suppan popped up a bunt attempt. Additionally, reliever David Riske batted for himself, fouling out to the catcher with a runner on second in the sixth inning.

Seth McClung recorded the win after pitching in the 12th inning. The win is his first since September 20, 2006, when he was a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. To see how topsy-turvy this game was check out the game graph:

The sixth and seventh innings are fun to look at in the graph; after the Brewers scored four runs in the bottom of the sixth the Cardinals responded with four of their own in the top of the seventh. In terms of WPA, Guillermo Mota and Kapler led the Brewers while Skip Schumaker and Ryan Franklin contributed the most to the Cardinals. Rick Ankiel and Isringhausen each finished at -.358.

From here, the Cardinals head to Pittsburgh to face Ian Snell while the Brewers host Cole Hamels and the Phillies. Based on the last two games for the Phillies and last night’s Brewers affair this has the makings for one wild series.

This is the fourth installment in a series of articles detailing Matt Cain’s starts. Based on the quality of his games pitched and his decisions or no-decisions earned, Cain’s 2007 was the unluckiest season of at least this decade. Seeing as the Giants have a bleak outlook this trend should continue.

His first three starts followed an extremely simple pattern of: good, bad, good. In pure Cain fashion, he did not receive a decision in either good game but earned the loss in his poorly pitched game. To get caught up on his season visit any of the following links:

• Cain Watch #1
• WPA, 4/1/08
• Cain Watch #2
• WPA, 4/7/08
• Cain Watch #3
• WPA, 4/12/08

He made his fourth start on April 18th, a game in which bad luck never had a chance to interfere due to Cain’s poor performance. His line of 3.2 IP, 8 H, 9 ER, 3 BB, 4 K led to the following lopsided game graph:

For the season, Cain is averaging the following rounded numbers per start: 5 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 5 K. There has been quality as he has had two very good starts; however, his bad starts have had much more of an effect on his season to date. Let’s compare this to last April, when, through four starts, Cain had the following averages: 7.1 IP, 2.8 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K. The only stagnant number is the strikeouts; everything else is worse now than a year ago. So what’s the difference?

He is throwing 57% first-pitch strikes, which is the same as last year and higher than his previous two years, but his overall percentage of strikes has dipped from 63% to 60%. Batters are swinging at 73% of his pitches, down from the 75% last year, however they are making contact 84% of the time; last year the contact rate was at 81%. Putting this together, Cain is throwing a lower percentage of strikes while maintaining his rate of first-pitch strikes, but batters are swinging less and making more contact. This helps to explain why his baserunners allowed have increased.

I’m currently building my own Pitch FX database and will begin to incorporate his data in that area into future looks at his starts. His next start is scheduled for April 23rd, when he will face-off against Greg Maddux for the second time this season, this time at the spacious Petco Park. His flyball and groundball percentages have lowered this year while his line drive percentage has risen. Though he has not given up a ton of home runs in his career, three in his first four starts shows some susceptibility; limiting his walks will help reduce two-run and three-run home runs to those of the solo variety. If he cannot rebound from this start and get onto some type of consistency track then luck will not be a factor in what will amount to a poorly pitched season.