Archive for Casey Blake

A couple of years ago, Sky Andrecheck used the power of hindsight to see if an MLB team could have built a 2009 playoff contender using only players who were available on the free-agent market that previous off-season. The only caveat was that this team had to have a league-average budget. Using actual WAR and salaries, Andrecheck pieced together the perfect 25-man roster — actually 18, since he left his bullpen to fend for itself with replacement-level players — and on Aug. 24, his hypothetical team was on pace to win 96 games. And it all happened for the bargain price of $78.6 million.

While this is an interesting exercise, and one I replicated for the 2008 season, I don’t need to tell you that a pretty strong team could have been built on the backs of 2011 free-agent steals such as Bartolo Colon, Brandon McCarthy, Jhonny Peralta and Ryan Vogelsong. Instead, Mr. Dave Cameron, in his infinite generosity, has given me a budget of $80 million FanGraphs Pesos to piece together a free-agent team for next season, without the benefit of hindsight. In case you’re wondering, the ratio of FanGraphs Pesos to Schrute Bucks is 3:1.

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Jayson Stark at ESPN.com recently reported that the Dodgers and Casey Blake reached an agreement for 3 yrs and around $17.1 million. The exact details of the contracts are not known as of this juncture, though I will update when they become available. Blake, a third baseman who has dabbled at several other positions throughout his career, joined the Dodgers towards the end of July last season. In 58 games wearing Dodger blue, he posted a .251/.313/.460 line with 10 home runs. This resulted in a slightly below average .327 wOBA.

All told, his -3 runs on offense, +1.4 runs on defense, and positional adjustment for playing third base pegged him as a league average player over the final two months of the season. With injuries to Jeff Kent and Nomar Garciaparra, acquiring Blake allowed Joe Torre to shift Blake DeWitt to second base, stabilizing the defense and lineup, in a sense.

The average annual value of Blake’s supposed contract with the Dodgers is $5.7 mil, meaning that they would essentially be paying him to add about 1.15 wins above replacement per season. How does his 2009 projection look in this regard?

Marcel says Blake will hit .265/.336/.440, with 18 HR, and a .335 wOBA. His wOBA would basically represent the league average, and based on his projected playing time, he would be worth +1 run above average with the bat. He was -3.7 runs below average via UZR in 2007, and -4.7 in 2008. Let’s say, at worst, he is -5 runs at third base next season. Add in his +2.5 positional adjustment and +20 runs to represent value above replacement level, not average, and Blake is projected to be worth +18.5 runs in 2009. This easily converts to +1.85 WAR.

Assuming the going rate is around $5 mil/win this year, Blake’s fair market value for a one year deal is $9.25 mil. Factoring in a 10% discount rate for a multi-year deal, and an appropriate contract would be 3-yr/$25 mil. The Dodgers supposedly signed him for around $8 mil less than his projection calls for. Now, granted, Blake will be 36 by the end of the 2009 season, and when this contract ends, he will either become a utility bench player or retiree. Even with aging curves, though, there is little reason to think he will only be worth 3.45 WAR (the 1.15 WAR per year based don his $5.7 mil AAV) over the duration of this deal.

Having traded Andy LaRoche to acquire Manny Ramirez, it isn’t as if Blake’s signing will prevent a top-tiered prospect from earning playing time. He isn’t going to put the team over the top, or make up for Manny’s lost production if he signs elsewhere, but based on the committed money and his projected production, this looks like a very solid deal for the Dodgers.

The Cleveland Indians organization has a way of making some excellent trades. The club recently traded Casey Blake, basically a league-average third baseman, to the Los Angeles Dodgers for two intriguing prospects, one of whom could immediately step into the big league bullpen.

Blake, 34, was originally selected by the Toronto Blue Jays in the seventh round of 1996 draft out of Wichita State University. He also spent time with Baltimore and Minnesota before moving on to Cleveland as a free agent. Blake was in his sixth season with the Indians and was hitting .288/.365/.466 with 11 homers in 320 at-bats. It is an interesting trade because Los Angeles already had two interesting third base prospects playing at the Major League level (Andy LaRoche and Blake Dewitt).

Reliever Jonathan Meloan spent the bulk of 2008 in the starting rotation for Triple-A Las Vegas, which is a difficult environment to hit in. He was lights-out in the bullpen the previous three seasons in the minors. He was originally selected in the fifth round of the 2005 draft out of the University of Arizona. Meloan could be one of the more effective relievers in the Tribe’s bullpen right now with his low- to mid-90s fastball and slider.

Catcher Carlos Santana is possibly the steal of the trade deadline to this point. The converted outfielder is still learning the catch (He has caught just 22 of 97 base runners, with 16 errors and 10 passed balls) but you cannot argue with the potential in his bat. Only 22, Santana is currently hitting .323/.431/.563 with 14 homers and seven stolen bases in 350 at-bats. He has also walked 69 times with 59 strikeouts. Any time you get a young player with more walks than strikeouts you have to be impressed. The switch hitter is currently batting .341 against southpaws and .317 against right-handers. Santana is also hitting .411 with runners in scoring position.

There have been some talented prospects trade uniforms already during the 2008 trade deadline countdown but the Indians may have received the best value to date.