Archive for Chase Utley

They got it right. Hideki Matsui was unequivocally the right choice for World Series MVP. His raw numbers were incredible. In 15 plate appearances, the Phillies only managed to get Matsui out 5 times. His 8 hits, 2 doubles, and 2 HRs add up to a .761 wOBA.

Of course, context neutral numbers don’t tell the whole story. in the clinching game 6, Matsui’s grand night tallied a .339 WPA, effectively single-handedly winning the game for New York. Matsui also led Yankee hitters in game 2, where Matsui’s go-ahead home run led to a .223 WPA and a 3-1 Yankee victory. Overall, Matsui totalled .639 WPA, good for the best in the series.

As such, he was a no-brainer. The more interesting discussion, in my mind, stems from discussions from Wednesday afternoon, prior to game 6, regarding Chase Utley‘s validity as an MVP candidate. As everybody knows, Utley had an impressive series, tying Reggie Jackson’s record with 5 home runs in a World Series. Thanks to an 0-3 dud in game 6, Utley’s line fell to 6-21 with 3 walks, but all 6 of hits went for extra bases, resulting in a .555 wOBA.

Again, we need to give these numbers context. Utley’s two home run games in games 1 and 5 combined for a .455 WPA and his game 4 (2-4, 2B) was worth another .131. Unfortunately for Utley and the Phillies, that accounts for all of his hits in this World Series. His hitless games in games 2, 3, and 6 (all won by the Yankees) combined for a -.377 WPA, essentially cancelling out games 1 and 4.

Utley’s power performance was impressive. Still, we can’t forget about the bad games. Although Alex Rodriguez and Johnny Damon didn’t have any games, in terms of raw hitting, that compared to Utley. A-Rod, however, put up .269 WPA in game 4 with his game winning double, and Johnny Damon put up .250 in the same game with an RBI single, a hit in the 9th inning, and the legendary double steal that led to the game winning run. Both A-Rod (.330 WPA) and Damon (.421 WPA) had better overall series than Utley, by this measure.

For the Phillies, the best candidate is Cliff Lee. No Phillies hitter consistently put up solid games. Lee more than singlehandedly won game 1 with his memorable complete game (.519 WPA), and pitched well enough in game 5 to lead Philadelphia to their only other series win (.085 WPA). That leaves Lee with .604 WPA for the series, nearly as much as Matsui.

Mariano Rivera, fittingly, finished the game for the Yankees. He did pitch well this series, as he didn’t allow a run, but he only saw one high leverage situation (game 2, +.166 WPA). His contribution was important (total of +.259 WPA), but pales in comparison to Matsui’s and Lee’s, and is still less than Rodriguez and Damon.

The fans got this one right. Hideki Matsui had the game of his MLB career tonight, and he completely deserves this honor.

In all likelihood, the National League MVP is going to Albert Pujols for the second consecutive season, and probably rightly so. He’s at or near the top in many of the traditional and non-traditional stats and is 2nd behind Tim Lincecum in wins above replacement with 7.5.

But right there with Pujols and Lincecum is Chase Utley, with 7.2 WAR. Last year, Utley was 2nd in WAR with 8.1 and yet somehow managed to finish just 14th in the MVP voting. What will the voters do with Chase this year?

I knew Chase Utley has been underrated by the mainstream media, but I’m not sure I realized by how much. Consider this: In the past five years (including this season), Utley has been worth 37.5 wins above replacement, 2nd only to Albert Pujols, who has 39.5. That’s just freakishly impressive, and yet Utley has never finished above 7th in the MVP voting in his career. It is also worth noting that Utley has been good for a whopping 72.2 runs in UZR in the last five years, and yet has never won a Gold Glove.

While I know it’s too premature to start lumping Utley together with Hall of Famers, writers and fans have no qualms about doing the same with Pujols, so please just indulge me for a moment. Utley clearly is playing at his peak right now, and will certainly face some decline later on in his career. But if Utley were to retire after this season, he would have about 40 WAR. It took Hall of Famer second baseman Red Schoendienst 19 seasons to get to do the same. Utley has done it in eight. Alright, so that’s a little cherry-picking on my part, as we know Red was helped into the Hall by his managerial record, but Tom Tango recently looked at all position players born between 1874 and 1958 and found that 34% of players with a career WAR in the 40’s made it into the Hall of Fame. Those are some fair odds.

Looking at it from a different angle, Utley is averaging 6.9 WAR per 150 games. For a frame of reference, Jackie Robinson averaged 6.8 WAR per 150 games, the second highest among 2nd baseman in the Hall of Fame behind Rogers Hornsby, who was worth an astonishing 8.5. The great Eddie Collins is next with 6.7.

I’m not nuts enough to say that Utley is going to go on and have a career anything quite like Robinson’s or Collins’; my point is that casual fans have failed to realize just how good Utley really has been. He has been consistently brilliant now for quite a stretch.

Watch him and appreciate him, folks. I believe he’s the type of player you’ll one day be telling your grandchildren about.

Yesterday, we took a look at the first basemen in baseball this past season, looking at the good, the bad, and the Konerko. Today, our attention turns to second base, one of those pesky middle infield positions to see which bright spots housed the most shine, and where some of that light needs to be directed moving forward. Ultimately, though, there were really only two standouts at second base this year, when you factor in offense, defense, and baserunning: Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia. Utley is both a fan favorite and a saber-darling, as many analysts cannot wrap their heads around how the Phillies won the MVP award in 2006 and 2007 and neither of them went to former UCLA star. Pedroia may very well walk home with the AL MVP this year in a very open race.

When looking solely at offense, there were actually quite a few solid performers at the position this year. Outside of Utley and Pedroia, Dan Uggla smacked 32 more home runs, Ian Kinsler helped spearhead a scary Rangers offense, and Mark DeRosa emerged as a legitimate offensive threat–he may have played all over the place this season but the majority was at second base.

Via WPA/LI, Chase Utley was close to one and a half wins better than anyone else at the position:

Chase Utley, 3.63
Dan Uggla, 2.27
Dustin Pedroia, 2.03
Mark DeRosa, 1.89
Ian Kinsler, 1.62

When we use VORP, we get a slightly different story:

Dustin Pedroia, 62.3
Chase Utley, 62.2
Ian Kinsler, 54.6
Brian Roberts, 50.6
Dan Uggla, 42.5

This is strictly offense, though, so what happens when the defensive element is introduced:

Chase Utley, +47
Mark Ellis, +26
Adam Kennedy, +19
Brandon Phillips, +17
Dustin Pedroia, +15

Only Utley and Petey remain, further establishing my assertion that this position belonged purely to the two of them this season. Based on the fact that Utley made over three times more plays than Pedroia relative to the average second basemen and that he either leads by a large margin, or is essentially tied to Pedroia in several offensive categories, it is in no way a stretch to conclude he had the best season for a keystone cornerman. Pedroia may walk home with some hardware, but Utley performed better, and I’m not just saying that as a fan of the Phillies.

In the baserunning department, Ian Kinsler scored a +41 based on his stolen base success and ability to advance to bases or take the next base. This put him seventh in the sport, ahead of all other second basemen. Placido Polanco‘s 43 strikeouts were the least, and Brian Roberts‘ 82 walks were the most amongst these players. Utley hit the most home runs, 33, and produced the highest OPS, .915. Pedroia came within four doubles of Todd Helton’s “record” of 58, as he hit 54 two-baggers. Helton isn’t the record holder, but in recent history, nobody has more than his 58 from several years ago. Akinori Iwamura led the way with 9 triples in that department.

On the flipside, Freddy Sanchez and Robinson Cano had abysmal offensive seasons, finishing with a -1.44 and -1.31 WPA/LI, respectively. This does not mean either is a poor player, but rather that they had poor seasons. Factor in defense and it becomes clear that Cano had the worst season of any second basemen. Sanchez’s +2 at the position put him 11th, while Cano’s -16 placed him 34th, as he made sixteen less plays than an average second basemen. Entering the season, the thought existed that Cano might be able to challenge Utley in some way for second base supremacy. I don’t think anybody anticipated they would find themselves as polar opposites on both offense and defense. Tomorrow, we turn to Shortstops and Third Basemen, before finishing off the infield with Catchers on Friday.

If you’ve taken an introductory math class, you’ve probably seen the bell curve graph that explains how the distribution of things are grouped around the average and thinner at the extremes. National League second baseman have decided to band together and disprove normal distribution in 2008, however.

As a group, they are hitting .267/.335/.415 for a .750 OPS. Normal distribution would suggest that we’d find a cluster of players with an OPS between .700 and .800, but in reality, only one of the 13 qualified second baseman falls in that range – Luis Castillo. The other twelve are split into two distinct groups – tremendous and terrible. This morning, we look at the guys excelling, and tonight, we’ll look at those who are dragging the average down.

We’ve talked about the amazing years Chase Utley and Dan Uggla are having. Both are having historically tremendous seasons for a second baseman, and they’re mortal locks to represent the NL at the all-star game. But behind those two MVP candidates are four pretty good players in their own right.

Orlando Hudson: .303/.372/.503, 0.82 WPA/LI
Brandon Phillips: .287/.336/.529, 0.55 WPA/LI
Kelly Johnson: .299/.362/.495, 0.34 WPA/LI
Mark DeRosa: .297/.384/.449, 0.66 WPA/LI

All of these guys are having seasons that would create a strong case for an all-star bid in any other year. Hudson and Phillips both add terrific defense to their offensive value, while Johnson and DeRosa continue to be the under the radar stars for their respective teams. You really can’t go wrong with any of these six guys, as all of them are having tremendously valuable seasons.

While most of the attention directed towards second basemen is deservedly paid to Chase Utley, another NL East player of the same position, who also happens to have a five-lettered last name beginning with “U” has been posting some pretty solid numbers of his own. Clearly, the title of this post indicates I am speaking about Dan Uggla, who has helped the Marlins to a 23-14 record; believe it or not… that is the highest winning percentage in baseball. Yes, folks, the Marlins, as of right now, are “the best team in baseball.”

Uggla has posted some pretty drastic splits in his numbers this year but let’s first examine everything on the whole:

2006: .282/.339/.480, 112 OPS+, 27 HR, 33 2B-3B, 154 GP
2007: .245/.326/.479, 108 OPS+, 31 HR, 52 2B-3B, 159 GP
2008: .279/.359/.618, 155 OPS+, 11 HR, 12 2B-3B, 36 GP

Taking batting average out of the equation, Uggla essentially performed the same last year as in his rookie season. Many thought he fell into the sophomore slump due to his .245 BA and big jump in strikeouts (123 to 167), but his OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, HR and RBI all remained relatively similar. Additionally, his BABIP was a tad lucky in 2006 whereas it was right on par last year. This year, however, everything has jumped and were he to keep pace, he would finish the season with close to 50 home runs. This is not very likely to happen, though, so instead of focusing on what he could do this year, let’s look at what is contributing to these numbers, starting with his splits vs. pitchers:

vs. RHP: .307/.383/.733, 11 HR, 24 RBI (115 PA)
vs. LHP: .200/.293/.286, 0 HR, 3 RBI (41 PA)

Here are his home/road splits:

Home: .213/.306/.533, .839 OPS, 6 HR, 12 RBI (85 PA)
Away: .361/.423/.721, 1.142 OPS, 5 HR, 15 RBI (71 PA)

And here are splits between April and May:

April: 26 GP, .255/.330/.471, .801 OPS, .306 BABIP, 4 HR, 12 RBI
May: 10 GP, .353/.439/1.059, 1.498 OPS, .313 BABIP, 7 HR, 15 RBI

He has homered in seven of his ten games this month and has an absolutely ridiculous SLG and OPS. Additionally, looking at his career splits, May has always been his best month. In May, over the last three years, he has an OPS of 1.026; next closest is June’s .903.

To sum everything up, this year Uggla likes facing righties and hitting on the road, and in his career, REALLY likes this month.

It’s an old bar argument that we’ve all had – who is the best player in baseball right now? It’s generally been a two horse race for the last couple of years, but we’ve got a new candidate thrusting himself into the discussion:

The best hitter alive is Albert Pujols, and no one really has any chance to claim otherwise. Alex Rodriguez is an inner circle hall of famer, but at 33, he’s a tick behind Prince Albert at the plate and the defensive difference isn’t large enough to close the gap. But now, entering his prime at age 28, Chase Utley is throwing his hat into the ring and demanding to be noticed. He’s absolutely destroying the ball right now, adding tremendous power to a package that already made him the best second baseman in the game.

That kind of offense from a guy who can really play defense at an up-the-middle position is just unbelievably valuable. While most teams are happy to have their second baseman avoid being a black hole at the plate, Utley gives the Phillies a middle of the order star, and that kind of comparative advantage is the main reason that Philadelphia is a playoff contender. Utley may have two teammates with NL MVP awards, but they’re playing in his shadow now.