Archive for chris heisey

At 39-33, the Cincinnati Reds currently sit one game back of the St. Louis Cardinals for the division lead in the National League Central. Cincy’s starting pitchers (12th in the NL in xFIP) and ‘pen arms (11th) haven’t really stood out, and the defense has been middle-of-the-pack (eighth in UZR). The offense is the only unit to rate in the top half of the Senior Circuit, as Reds hitters rank second in Park-Adjusted Batting Runs.

Jonny Gomes is doing his part at the plate, slugging .285/.342/.491 with a .352 wOBA in 243 plate appearances. The erstwhile Ray has contributed +4.3 runs with the bat so far, drawing the vast majority of starts in left field for the Reds. During the interleague portion of Cincinnati’s schedule, Gomes has mostly DH’d. Unfortunately, that’s not an option the rest of the year. Once you consider Gomes’ lumbering defense, the Reds might be costing themselves runs by playing him over rookie Chris Heisey.

During his big league career, the 6-1, 225 pound Gomes has a -24.7 UZR/150 in left field and a -16.2 UZR/150 in right field. Pro-rated to 150 defensive games, Total Zone has him at -15.9 runs in left and -24.3 runs in right. Few players in the game punt as much value with the leather — despite Gomes’ quality hitting, he has contributed just 0.1 Wins Above Replacement this season.

Heisey, meanwhile, is considered a much more well-rounded prospect. A 17th-round pick out of Division III Messiah (Pa.), Heisey hit a combined .296/.367/.459 in the minors while rating very well in center and the outfield corners per Total Zone. Prior to 2010, Baseball America called the 25-year-old a “plus defender in the outfield corners.” Heisey projects as an above-average defender in a corner spot, and he reminds me of a David DeJesus-type.

So, how do the two match up? Let’s take a look at Gomes’ and Heisey’s rest-of-season CHONE projections. Offensively, Gomes projects as about +.014 runs above average per plate appearance. Heisey has just 56 plate appearances at the MLB level, with a .413 wOBA. His rest-of-season CHONE forecasts him as -.012 runs below average per plate appearance. If each receives, say, 300 PA from here on out, Gomes would add a little more than four runs above average with the bat while Heisey would be about four runs below average.

Offensively, advantage Gomes. But it’s extremely difficult to envision a scenario in which Heisey doesn’t make up that eight run difference in offensive value with the leather. CHONE thinks that Heisey would actually rate as an above-average center fielder. Let’s say that Heisey rates as a +10 run defender in left per 150 games and Gomes a negative 15 (which is probably generous). If each plays something like 80 more defensive games this season, Heisey would add roughly five runs in value, while Gomes would surrender about eight runs.

Admittedly, the numbers I use are presented as a speculative exercise, but the Reds could be punting a half-win in value for the rest of 2010, perhaps more, by preferring Gomes over Heisey. The NL Central race is close at the moment, but CoolStandings gives the Reds a mild 32% chance of clinching a playoff berth. They’ll need to optimize the talent on hand to stay in the race, and it doesn’t appear as though the team is doing that in left field.

What you’re reading when you’re reading these words is Carson Cistulli’s most recent submission to the All-Joy Team. If you’re unfamiliar with the project, then you’ll want to read the introductory posts (yes, plural!) some time before you shuffle off this mortal coil.

In the meantime, you’ll be fine knowing that this is an attempt to compile a 25-man roster of current players most capable of providing joy to the sabermetrically inclined.

After reaching some pretty frenzied heights in our most recent episode of All-Joy Team — i.e. the hit show that everyone’s talking about — today we take a more conservative, but no less legitimate tact.

For each of the five players below (1B, CF/LF, SP, RPx2), I’ve used leaderboards to some end. Of course, as a new season unfolds, this sort of search will produce different results, will identify new players as All-Joy worthy. Is that a problem? maybe you’re asking. To which I reply: absolutely not. Like with the seasons — that, or NBC’s late-night programming — change is the rule and not the exception for the All-Joy Team.

Regard:

1B, Brian Myrow, Pittsburgh (1,3)

One Method:

1. Go to the CHONE projections here at FanGraphs.
2. Sort all hitters by wOBA.
3. Find the first player to’ve recorded exactly zero MLB plate appearances last year.
4. Ta-da!

Alternatively:

1. Go to BP’s Minor League Equivalent Average page.
2. Painstakingly, copy and paste the Peak Translation hitting leaders for each league into your off-brand spreadsheet program.
3. Sort by EqA.
4. Find the first hitter over 27.
5. Hint: It’s also the only hitter over 27.
6. Ta-da!

The player upon whom you’ll settle in either case is Brian Myrow.

True Fact: If you confront Sean Smith about Myrow’s optimistic CHONE projection, he will stab you in the eye.

***

LF/CF*, Chris Heisey, Cincinnati (1,4)

The Method:

1. Go to the CHONE projections here at FanGraphs.
2. Sort all hitters by WAR.
3. Find the first player to’ve recorded exactly zero MLB plate appearances last year.
4. If he’s also a former 18th round draft pick, that’s even better.
5. Ta-da!

True Fact: Heisey is currently towards the bottom of a pretty crowded outfield depth chart in Cincinnati. His fate is also largely, tragically in the hands of Dusty Baker. Translation: Pray for him.

Note: Exact position TBD.

***

SP, Billy Buckner, Arizona (2,4)

The Method:

1. Go to the Pitcher Leaderboards for 2009 here at FanGraphs.
2. Set the Min IP to 50 and sort by name.
3. Export both the Advanced and Basic pages to CSV.
4. Attempt to open both documents by means of your off-brand spreadsheet program.
5. Wait like eleventy minutes for said documents to open.
6. Copy the data from the Basic stats over into the Advanced one.
7. Subtract xFIP from ERA for all players.
8. Sort by difference.
9. Find the first pitcher with an xFIP under 4.00.
10. Also, he can’t have won a Cy Young before.
11. Ta-da!

Quick Quiz: Can you guess the former Cy Young-er just above Buckner in ERA-xFIP?

True Fact: Billy Buckner once played for the Royals but escaped by means of an elaborate, Shawshank Redemption-type plan.

***

RP, Brandon League, Toronto (2,4,5)
RP, Kevin Jepsen, LA Angels (2,4)

The Method:

1. Actually, it’s identical to the Buckner method until Step 9. You just find the first relief pitcher instead.
2. Actually, Jepsen and League have basically the same difference (around 1.40).
3. Ta-da?

True Facts: League’s splitter was the toughest pitch to hit in 2009. Also, he was hand-picked by Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik, who is never wrong. Kevin Jepsen, for his part, throws what I’m prepared to call a “dazzling” cut fastball. Also, he made Jeter look silly in last year’s ALCS.

General Manager: Walt Jocketty
Farm Director: Terry Reynolds
Scouting Director: Chris Buckley

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The organization’s strength is certainly on the offensive side of things. However, the club addressed the lack of pitching depth by focusing on the area early on during the 2009 draft. Five of its first seven picks were pitchers; four out of those five were college arms, who will hopefully ascend through the system quickly to provide depth in the upper minors, as well as the Majors.

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:

1. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Double-A
DOB: April 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – University of Miami
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

A 2008 first rounder, Alonso has appeared in just 90 regular season pro games after signing late in ’08 and then missing time due to injury in ’09. Even so, the first baseman has risen to double-A, where he hit .295/.372/.457 in 105 at-bats. Prior to that, he hit .303/.382/.497 in 175 high-A at-bats. Alonso has shown a solid eye throughout his career, and his walk rate was 11.8% in double-A. He’s considered a threat to hit .300 at the MLB level, but it may come at the expense of some power. Alonso posted a .162 ISO in double-A but he hit just two homers in 29 games (a total of nine on the year). On the plus side, he doesn’t strike out much, either, and whiffed at a rate of 14.3%. To be a true, everyday threat, Alonso is going to have to improve against southpaws after hitting just .222/.329/.317, albeit in a small sample size with a .260 BABIP. It be nice to see him get through 2010 without suffering a significant injury.

2. Todd Frazier, OF, Double-A
DOB: February 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 supplemental first round – Rutgers University
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Where’s Frazier? Many fans may be asking that very question, as the prospect has played almost every position in the field over the span of his short, three-year pro career. In ’09, the 23 year old spent time in left field (79 games), second base (37), first base (15), and third base (four). He spent much of his early career at shortstop, and does not project to be much more than average at any position. He could end up with a Chone Figgins or Tony Phillips type of career, where he plays everyday and simply moves around each season based on team need at the time. Offensively, he had a solid year in double-A, where he hit .290/.350/.481 in 451 at-bats. He posted a .191 ISO but had some trouble on the base paths and was caught stealing eight times in 15 attempts. He earned a late-season promotion to triple-A, where he posted an .839 OPS in 16 games.

3. Chris Heisey, OF, Triple-A
DOB: December 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 17th round – Messiah College
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

Heisey’s popularity continues to rise, but he may be in danger of falling into the over-hyped category now (says someone listing him as the third overall prospect in the system). However, Heisey – who projects to be a corner outfielder – has yet to post consistent impact power numbers in the minors. With that said, 2009 was a nice start and it will be interesting to see if he can repeat his 20+ homer season. The soon-to-be 25-year-old outfielder is not going to knock Drew Stubbs out of center, or Jay Bruce out of right, so that leaves left field (which could end up being patrolled by Joey Votto, once Alonso is ready). Heisey does the majority of his damage against left-handed pitching, with an OPS of .929, compared to .801 against right-handers. In truth, Heisey’s ceiling may be that of a platoon outfielder, who may also provide a few average-to-above-average MLB seasons.

4. Travis Wood, LHP, Triple-A
DOB: February 1987 Bats: R Throws: L
Signed: 2005 2nd round – Arkansas high school
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 87-91 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up, cutter

The 22-year-old Wood rebounded after a horrible half-season in double-A in ’08. He posted an ugly 7.09 ERA (5.43 FIP) in 80.0 innings. Challenged to improve at the same level in ’09, the left-hander responded with a league-leading 1.21 ERA (2.75 FIP) in 119.0 innings He allowed just 78 hits and posted a walk rate of 2.80. Move up to triple-A, Wood allowed 43 hits in 48.2 innings and posted a walk rate of 2.96 BB/9. His strikeout rate dropped from 7.79 K/9 in double-A to 5.92 in triple-A. He did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park by allowing just six homers all season. Although he doesn’t have a blazing fastball, Wood should settle in nicely as a No. 3 or 4 starter in the National League.

5. Zack Cozart, SS, Double-A
DOB: August 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 2nd round – University of Mississippi
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Cozart’s batting average and slugging percentage both dropped in ’09, but his OPS did not fall too far (.787 to .758), thanks to a 7.0% increase in walk rate. He also broke double-digit steals for the first time in his career with 10 in 12 attempts. The infielder should – at the very least – develop into a MLB utility player, but he could also see some time as a regular middle infielder. The right-handed hitter batted .262/.360/.398 on the season in double-A. Last season he showed some power with an ISO of .177, but that dipped to .136 in ’09. Cozart needs to have more success against right-handed pitchers after hitting just .243/.336/.384 against them. He also had a poor second half of the year despite hitting almost .300 in the first half. The former Mississippi grad should begin 2010 in triple-A.

6. Juan Francisco, 3B, Majors
DOB: June 1987 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2004 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

After beginning the year in double-A, Francisco reached the Majors for the first time at the end of the season. The third baseman hit .281/.317/.501 in 437 double-A at-bats. He posted a .220 ISO in double-A and slammed a total of 28 homers on the year. He hit .359 in a 22-game stint in triple-A, before hitting .429 in 14 big-league games. However, Francisco took just 27 walks on the entire season, and has a walk rate of 4.3% in the minors, which was (sadly) a career high. With that lack of patience, as well as a strikeout rate of +22.0%, it will be difficult for Francisco to hit for average in the Majors… even with a high BABIP. He’s not a star glove man at third, but he’s an improvement over former third baseman Edwin Encarnacion. Scott Rolen will likely keep the position warm for one more season until Francisco is fully ready.

7. Matt Maloney, LHP, Majors
DOB: January 1984 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 3rd round – University of Mississippi (Philadelphia)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 87-91 mph fastball, slider, plus change-up

Maloney was acquired from the Phillies during the ’07 season and he’s had his ups and downs since joining the system, which is not surprising for a young pitcher that relies on control and changing speeds to be successful. The left-hander finally made his MLB debut in ’09 after a solid triple-A campaign where he allowed 143 hits in 143.0 innings, while also posting a walk rate of just 1.51 BB/9. He also struck out his fair share batters with a strikeout rate of 7.87 K/9. At the MLB level, Maloney struggled with a 5.41 FIP, but his walk rate remained solid at 1.77 BB/9; he may have actually been in the strike zone a bit too much (at least over the heart of the plate). He’ll need to improve the 34.4% ground-ball rate if he’s going to stick in the rotation, especially with a fastball that averages out at 87 mph.

8. Yorman Rodriguez, OF, Rookie
DOB: August 1992 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2014 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Rodriguez spent his first season in North America playing at two rookie ball levels and he did not turn 17 until mid-August. The right-handed hitting outfielder struggled in his first taste of pro ball and posted a strikeout rate of about 30.0% in 265 at-bats. Rodriguez showed flashes of both power and speed, but the base running skill is a little more advanced at this point and he nabbed 10 bases in 12 attempts. On the plus side, Rodriguez was showing improvements as the season progressed. He’ll likely repeat rookie ball in 2010.

9. Neftali Soto, 3B, High-A
DOB: February 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 3rd round – Puerto Rico high school
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It was a bit of an off-year for Soto, but he’s still just 20 years old and he spent the year as one of the youngest players in high-A ball. The third baseman hit .248/.282/.362 in 505 at-bats and it’s clear that he needs to show some patience at the plate after posting a walk rate of 4.4%. His power dropped from an ISO of .174 in low-A ball in ’08 to .115 in ’09, but his strikeout rate remained respectable at 18.8%. After hitting well in ’07 and ’08 despite holes in his game, the ’09 struggles may have been humbling for Soto, who may now be more willing to make some adjustments to his approach.

8. Devin Mesoraco, C, High-A
DOB: June 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Pennsylvania HS
MLB ETA: mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A resident of Punxsotawney, Mesoraco’s offense has taken after Phil, the famous ground hog, by disappearing at the first sign of spring. The catcher has been under a spotlight because of his draft status, but his offense has not been quite as terrible as it might seem on the surface after he hit .228/.311/.381 in 312 high-A at-bats. At just 21, he’s still young for the level and he did see his walk rate increase by 4%. He also saw his ISO increase over the past three seasons from .051 to .137 to .154. The BABIP of .278 definitely hurt his batting average. On the downside, his strikeout rate has risen from 19.0 to 20.9 to 24.4%. In his first two pro seasons, Mesoraco hit right-handed pitchers well, but his numbers dropped to .222/.294/.374 (.270 BABIP) in ’09. Defensively, his throwing improved significantly over ’08: from 17% to 30%. He has work to do, but don’t give up on Mesoraco just yet.

Up Next: The Cleveland Indians

The Arizona Fall League rosters were announced by Major League Baseball last week. The league allows up-and-coming prospects (usually from high-A and double-A levels, as well as recent high draft picks) to continue honing their skills away from the fall instructional leagues held by each organization. Play will begin in early October and run until late November with the six teams – each one made up of five organizations’ players – continually facing each other.

Over the next couple of weeks, we’ll take a look at some of the more interesting names on each team. The rosters that were recently released are preliminary rosters and some players will be added, while others could be removed. Last Monday, we took a look at the Phoenix Desert Dogs. Tuesday, we had a gander at the Scottsdale Scorpions roster and on Wednesday we viewed the Mesa Solar Sox roster. Yesterday, we looked at the Peoria Javelinas roster and today we’re viewing the Peoria Saguaros.

The Peoria Saguaros (Click HERE for the entire roster)
Atlanta, San Diego, Houston, Cleveland, Cincinnati

Craig Kimbrel | RHP | Atlanta
Kimbrel was a busy man in 2009, making stops at four levels for Atlanta, so the AFL will be his fifth of the year. Combined in 2009, the reliever allowed 30 hits in 60 innings pitched. He also struck out 103 batters and walked 45. Despite his minor-league dominance, the lack of control is going to be an issue in the Majors so he has some work to do.

Chia-Jen Lo | RHP | Houston
Lo had a similar season to Kimbrel, although he pitched at just two levels. He allowed 40 hits in 64.1 innings of work with 75 strikeouts and 33 walks. His walk rate of 4.62 in double-A is too high but this was just his first year in North America after signing out of Taiwan last year.

Mike Minor | LHP | Atlanta
A 2009 first round draft pick, Minor was a bit of a reach for Atlanta’s first selection, but the club needs some upper-level pitching depth and the lefty should move quickly. He made four brief starts in pro ball after signing, allowing 10 hits and no walks in 14 innings of work. He also struck out 17 batters.

Jason Castro | C | Houston
It would not be shocking to see Castro behind the dish for Houston by mid-2010. The 2008 first-round pick had a very nice first full season in the minors and spent the last half of the year in double-A. He hit with good power in high-A ball but his ISO dropped from .208 to .092 after his promotion out of the extremely good hitter’s league and park.

Matt McBride | C | Cleveland
The Indians organization is not 100% sure what it has with McBride, who missed most of 2008 with an injury. He creamed high-A pitching but was old for the league. Upon a promotion to double-A, his batting average and on-base percentage plummeted but he still showed good power potential and struck out just 11.8% of the time. His BABIP can be partially blamed for his average.

Yonder Alonso | 1B | Cincinnati
Alonso struggled with injuries in 2009 but still played 28 games in double-A with a triple-slash line of .287/.368/.446. He doesn’t show as much in-game power as some of the other big-time first base prospects, but he’s a better overall hitter than most.

Freddie Freeman | 1B | Atlanta
Freeman, like Alonso, is a not a legit 30 home run hitter, but he has a chance to play good defense and hit .300 a few times with 20 homers. He was too advanced for high-A ball, where he began the year at the age of just 19. He finished up by hitting .248/.308/.342 in 149 double-A at-bats and should head back to Mississippi in 2010.

Lance Zawadzki | SS | San Diego
A fourth-round pick out of a smaller NAIA college in 2007, Zawadzki was selected higher than many expected but he rewarded the organization with a solid 2009 season. He split the year between high-A and double-A and showed more power at the lower level. Overall, he hit 15 homers in just under 500 at-bats. He won’t be a star, but he could be an average regular with 10-12 homers and 10-15 steals.

Jonathan Gaston | OF | Houston
Houston pulled the short straw last winter and ended up with Lancaster as its high-A affiliate. The park is perhaps the best hitter’s park in all of pro ball and Gaston enjoyed his time there immensely. He hit .280/.368/.602 with 35 homers and 119 RBI. His ISO was an incredible .322 but he struck out 31.7% of the time.

Chris Heisey | OF | Cincinnati
Heisey, 24, had a solid season in 2009 and split the year between double-A and triple-A. He has an outside shot of being the Reds’ fourth outfielder in 2010. Combined, Heisey hit 22 homers and stole 20 bases, while hitting more than .300. He is not a surefire bet to keep hitting for that kind of power in the Majors.

Jason Heyward | OF | Atlanta
Heyward could very well end up as the Minor League Baseball Player of the Year. The outfielder spent most of the year as a 19 year old and he started out in high-A and ended the year in triple-A. In between, he smoked double-A pitching and put up a line of .352/.446/.611 with more walks than strikeouts in 162 at-bats. He could be playing regularly in the Majors before his 21st birthday.

This week we’re taking a look at some of the leader boards in double-A and high-A ball. Today, we’ll take a look at the leaders in batting average and home runs among the three double-A leagues: the Eastern League, the Southern League and the Texas League. You’ve probably heard a lot of these names before, but some of them are fairly new, so let’s see if they’re prospects or suspects.

The Eastern League
Batting Average
(.342) – Brock Bond | 2B | San Francisco

A former 24th round selection out of the University of Missouri, Bond doesn’t really hit with enough power to play everyday, especially with his poor instincts on the base paths; He’s been success stealing bases just 11 times in 24 attempts. With that said, the 23-year-old second base is leading the league in hitting and has a career batting average of .326. San Francisco should be proactive and begin getting him experience at other positions because he has the makings of an offensive-minded utility player.

(.338) – Josh Thole | C | New York (NL)

A converted catcher, Thole has improved enough behind the plate to be an average defensive catcher. Offensively, the left-handed prospect is a gifted hitter who walks more than he strikes out (1.32 BB/K) and hits for a high average. Thole does lack power in his bat, which limits his ceiling a little bit. However, you won’t find many left-handed hitting catchers in the Majors that can hit .300.

(.333) – Michael Taylor | OF | (Philadelphia)

Taylor has really turned himself into a prospect over the past two seasons. The Stanford grad is 6’6′ 250 pounds but he stolen 18 bases in 22 attempts, to go along with his excellent batting average and 15 home runs. Perhaps in an effort to showcase Taylor, Philadelphia promoted him to triple-A, where he’s now played four games. There are questions about how much of his power is usable, in-game power.

Home Runs
(19) – Brian Dopirak | 1B | Toronto

Rescued off the Cubs’ scrap heap, Dopirak has blossomed with a new swing and approach at the plate. He slugged 29 homers last season for the Toronto organization, while playing mainly in high-A. This season in double-A, Dopirak, 25, continued hitting well with the league lead in homers, as well as a .308 batting average. He’s now been promoted to triple-A, where he should enjoy hitting in the Pacific Coast League.

(17) – Ryan Strieby | 1B/LF | Detroit

Strieby may have hit the quietest 29 home runs in 2008. Taken in the fourth round in 2006 out of the University of Kentucky, the 23-year-old has slowly made himself into a top prospect with his combination of power and ability to hit for a respectable average (.310 in 2009).

(17) – Brennan Boesch | OF | Detroit

Taken a round earlier than Strieby and out of the University of California, Boesch’s first two full seasons in the minors were underwhelming. He’s having a breakout season in terms of power this year, although the batting average is suspect (.260) and he rarely walks (.300 OBP).

The Southern League
Batting Average
(.347) – Chris Heisey | OF | Cincinnati

Heisey has received a fair bit of attention this season for really turning himself into a legitimate big-league prospect. Drafted out of a small college in 2006, the 24-year-old outfielder showed an ability to hit for average and power, while also stealing 13 bases in 14 attempts. Heisey is now hitting .314 in 18 triple-A games.

(.328) – Desmond Jennings | OF | Tampa Bay

Despite missing almost all of 2008 due to an injury, Jennings is one of the hottest hitters in the minors. He’s screaming for a promotion to triple-A with a .485 batting average, 12 walks and seven stolen bases in his last 10 games. For the season, he’s nabbed 36 bases in 41 attempts.

(.317) – Darwin Barney | SS | Chicago (NL)

Selected in the fourth round of the 2007 draft out of the Oregon State University, Barney had a modest first full season in the Majors in 2008. Aggressively promoted to double-A in 2009, the infielder responded with a solid batting average. He doesn’t hit for power or steal bases, so Barney is probably a long-term utility player. He’s currently hitting .170 in 14 triple-A games.

Home Runs
(20) – Greg Halman | OF | Seattle

Halman has troubles hitting the broadside of a barn with the barrel of his bat (He has a strikeout rate of 41.8%), but when he makes contact that barn will have some serious hurt. Halman is loaded with athletic ability and tons of potential but it’s disappointing that Seattle has let him get to double-A with this approach at the plate (0.14 BB/K). He makes Russell Branyan look like Ichiro.

(17) – Stefan Gartrell | OF | Chicago (AL)

Three of the Top 7 home run hitters in the Southern League come from the same Birmingham squad but only catcher Tyler Flowers is a legitimate prospect. Gartrell, 25, has come a long way since being drafted out of the University of San Francisco in the 31st round as a senior in 2006. He’s repeating double-A after spending all of 2008 in Birmingham, as well.

(17) – David Cook | OF | Chicago (AL)

Cook has been kicking around the system since being drafted out of the University of Miami (Ohio) in 2003. Now 28, the outfielder is having a nice season while providing veteran leadership to the organization’s young prospects. He was recently promoted to triple-A.

The Texas League
Batting Average
(.358) – Jordan Parraz | OF | Royals

An astute pick-up out of the Astros system prior to the 2009 season, Parraz has broken out with the bat, especially in terms of average. The 24-year-old moved very slowly through the Astros system, despite being a former third-round pick with a lot of promise. His base running (33 steals in ’07) seems to have dried up with just four in 12 attempts this season. He’s probably a long-term fourth outfielder with a powerful arm, but he should be challenged with a promotion to triple-A.

(.353) – Adrian Cardenas | IF | Oakland

Cardenas’ season has had a fair number of ups and downs. The infielder had a nice beginning to his season in double-A before a quick promotion to triple-A. His struggles in the senior league led to a demotion back to double-A where he’s dominated the competition. The organization is obviously hesitant to send him back up, but he has little left to prove in double-A with the bat (defense is another story).

(.331) – Tyler Henley | OF | St. Louis

An eighth round selection out of Rice University in 2007, Henley has flown under the radar throughout his entire pro career. The left-handed hitter has a career line of .296/.362/.474 but he doesn’t hit for enough power to be a Major League regular.

Home Runs
(16) – Collin DeLome | OF | Houston

DeLome, a fifth round pick out of Lamar University, has exceeded expectations but he’s probably not going to make enough contact to be a regular big-league outfielder. His career batting average is .266 and he’s taken just 22 walks in 2009, compared to 86 Ks. Teams can always use left-handed power, though, so the 23-year-old could eventually work his way into a platoon situation in Houston.

(16) – Chad Tracy | 1B | Texas

Selected out of Pepperdine University in the third round of the 2006 draft, Tracy had a lot more value before moving from catcher to first base (and left field). Now, he projects to be a quad-A slugger, who could eek out a Ross Gload type of career.

(16) – Corey Smith | 1B | Kansas City

A former top prospect (and former first-round pick) of the Cleveland Indians, Smith just keeps plugging along in hopes of realizing his big-league dream. After hitting 26 homers in double-A for the Angels organization in 2008, Smith is tied for the league lead at the same level in 2009. He still doesn’t hit for average and he still doesn’t have much patience at the plate… but you have to applaud his perseverance.

2008 Draft Slot: 7th overall
Top Pick: Yonder Alonso, 1B, University of Miami
Best Pick: Yonder Alonso
Keep an Eye On: Zach Stewart, RHP, Texas Tech (3rd round)
Notes: Zach Stewart is absolutely flying through the minors even though he’s been moved into the starting rotation. He began the year in high-A and has now made two starts in double-A – and has yet to allow a run at that level. Stewart was a little too hittable in high-A, but he throws an excellent sinker, and should benefit more as the defenses behind him improve (as he moves to higher levels). Stewart has also shown exceptional control by walking fewer than two batters per nine innings in nine starts. Yonder Alonso is having a solid, albeit not-so-flashy, season in high-A. He’s showing a good eye at the plate, he’s batting for a solid average and he’s showing some power. Alonso, though, has yet to quiet concerns that he cannot hit southpaws.

2007 Draft Slot: 15th overall
Top Pick: Devin Mesoraco, C, Pennsylvania high school
Best Pick: Todd Frazier, OF, Rutgers University (Supplemental 1st round)
Worst Pick: Devin Mesoraco
Notes: Devin Mesoraco showed a ton of improvement in his senior year of high school and was the fastest moving draft prospect right before the draft. It looks like scouts got a little ahead of themselves and Mesoraco was simply having a hot stretch. Only 20, though, he has plenty of time to turn things around. Despite not walking much, Todd Frazier is having a good season in double-A as he adjusts to life as an outfielder. Neftali Soto (3rd round) is finding high-A to be a challenge, especially with his aggressive approach at the plate, but don’t forget about him.

2006 Draft Slot: 8th overall
Top Pick: Drew Stubbs, OF, University of Texas
Best Pick: Drew Stubbs
Worst Pick: Sean Watson, RHP, University of Tennessee (2nd round)
Notes: When you take a college player with the eighth-overall pick, you’d hope he’d be in the Majors within two seasons. Drew Stubbs, though, is still in the minors and no one is really that surprised. He was a very toolsy and athletic, but raw, collegian and the Reds knew that when the organization selected him. Stubbs is playing well in triple-A, so his arrival in Cincinnati is not far off. Outfielder Chris Heisey was a nice find in the 17th round. He’s hitting .360 in double-A and has shown improved power development throughout his minor league career.

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2009 Draft Slot: 8th overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): College, but will not shy away from good prep prospects
MLB Club Need: Starting pitching, Outfield, Shortstop
Organizational Need: Left-handed pitching, Right field, Left field, Second base
Organizational Strength: Center field, Third base
Notes: The Reds have a nice spot to pick in the first round and should be able to nab a very talented pitcher – either college or prep. The club also has an extra selection in the supplemental first round. With the 2007 selection of prep catcher Devin Mesoraco (15th overall) not looking so good (.180/.281/.311 in high-A), maybe the club will look for another catcher-of-the-future, with some of the many young backstops available.