Archive for Cleveland Indians

Jason Kipnis has had a memorable start to his big-league career. Called up on July 21, Cleveland’s top prospect delivered a bases-loaded walk-off single for his first hit — and he’s been making history ever since. The 24-year-old second baseman hit home runs in four consecutive games, a feat never before achieved in a rookie’s first two weeks.

Kipnis talked on Wednesday about his never-to-be-forgotten 14 days just hours before hitting home run No. 4, at Fenway Park.

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Kipnis, on his first two weeks in the big leagues: “It’s been hectic and it’s been crazy. At the same time it hasn’t been anything out of the ordinary. I think I’ve done a good job of slowing the game down as fast as I could, to the point where it’s just baseball. I haven’t over-hyped anything. I haven’t been overwhelmed by the fact that I’m in Fenway Park. That said, with the ballparks I’m playing in — and the fans — it’s unbelievable.

“The first game was a blur. It went by really fast and it didn’t feel like a real baseball game to me. Now things have slowed down and I’m starting to get my swing back a little bit. Things are starting to get better.”

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Justin Masterson and Chris Perez are having success against American League hitters — Masterson is 5-2, 2.52; Perez has 10 saves — but what would happen if they went up against a lineup of Indians legends? How would they pitch to the likes of Napoleon Lajoie and Rocky Colavito? The Cleveland right-handers tackled that question head on, often with tongues firmly in cheek, prior to a recent game.

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David Laurila: Shoeless Joe Jackson is playing left field and leading off. How do you go after him?

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There is something serendipitous about Austin Kearns being signed to a a minor-league deal by Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro. Both have long been admired for their potential, but both are widely perceived (at least in certain circles) as disappointments. Despite that perception (which is surely at least somewhat grounded in reality), both have had their moments — Cleveland’s 2007 ALCS run, Kearns’ 2002, 2006, and 2007 seasons. By signing Kearns and Shelley Duncan to virtually no-risk, minor-league contracts, is Shapiro showing he’s still capable of smart moves? Let’s see what Kearns and Duncan have to offer.

Austin Kearns is now 30 and and the apparent potential of the early 00s and the “rebound” of 2006-07 are a long way away. But the public emergence of superior defensive metrics shows that he was even more valuable in his good years than originally thought, and not totally worthless even in some of his bad years. Offensively, Kearns isn’t much. CHONE projects Kearns for a context-neutral .237/.338/.375, or 6 runs below average per 150 games. ZiPS is similar, projecting .237/.341/.377, which I translate to about -6/150. My own projection is right there: .247/.346/.376, -4/150.

That’s not good, but it’s also enough to justify a minor-league deal — even with CHONE’s average defensive projection for the corner outfield, that adds up to 0.7 WAR in only 452 PA. But UZR likes Kearns is much more than that, and Jeff Zimmerman projects Kearns’ RF UZR/150 for +10 in 2010. Putting it all together, per 150 games Kearns is probably around a 1.5 WAR player once we account for position. That’s excellent for a minor-league deal.

Shelley Duncan is an ex-Yankee International League superstar who is a pretty bad outfielder — CHONE’s TotalZone has him at -6 (there’s too little major league sample size to use UZR), and is probably more of a 1B/LF/DH type. One might dismiss his CHONE projection — .244/.329/.462, +12/150 — as overly optimistic given its reliance on MLEs, but ZiPS is also impressed with Duncan, projecting him for .252/.328/.460, about +8/150. Even if you don’t regard him as an above-average player as does CHONE, again, he’s a very valuable piece to have on a minor league deal.

Mark Shapiro’s team had a disastrous 2009 after a disappointing 2008. The team has revenue problems, as well. On the field, two spots in the outfield are set, with CF Grady Sizemore likely to be one of the better players in the league again after a inujry-plagued down year in 2009, and Shin-Soo Choo is a likely 3.5-4 WAR impact hitter in right field. But there are other holes that need to be filled and not much money with which to do so. Matt LaPorta is a good young hitter, but he might be needed to fill the hole in 1B (unless Andy Marte works out there). Left field was slated for the likes of Michael Brantley and Trevor Crowe — bench fodder at best. Perhaps they’d work out, but for next to nothing, players like Kearns and Duncan provide likely improvement as well much-needed right-handed bats (Sizemore, Choo, and Travis Hafner are all left-handed hitters) while adding practically nothing to the payroll. Moreover, Duncan can fill in at DH or 1B “just in case” Hafner gets hurt.

This isn’t to say that adding 30-year-old minor league outfielders like Kearns and Duncan makes Cleveland a contender (although it doesn’t take much in a weak AL Central), especially given the pitching situation by the lake. But smart, no-risk moves like this show that Mark Shapiro is paying attention and that he has something left in the tank.

Francisco Rodriguez inked a three-year deal (with a fourth year option) with the Mets earlier today, but he is not the only closer that will wear a new uniform in 2009. Kerry Wood, who will likely forever be linked to the Cubs, reportedly signed a two-year deal with the Indians. The deal should be announced tomorrow, and once it is, just about everyone from the Bartman era will be gone. Wood will take over the closer’s role, which should offer some stability in the least. Last year, Joe Borowski struggled and was eventually released. Jensen Lewis then filled in for the remainder of a disappointing season for the Indians.

The exact details of the deal are not yet known, so this analysis will essentially be a work-in-progress, but we can definitely see what Wood should earn — his fair market value. In many ways, this signing is the opposite of K-Rod’s, in the sense that we have to adjust Wood’s projected FIP to be slightly higher, given the offensive superiority of the American League.

Marcel projects Wood at a 3.51 FIP over 61 innings. Moving to the junior circuit, though, a bit more should be tacked on. Let’s call him a 3.65 FIP pitcher in 61 innings. If a replacement level AL reliever is a 4.75 pitcher, than Wood is going to save a little over one run per nine innings. Extrapolated over the full 61 innings, Wood would be about eight runs above replacement level. The high leverage of his innings pitched then needs to be taken into account. Eight runs multiplied by an average LI of 1.8 comes out to +14 runs. According to these calculations, Wood would be worth a little less than one and a half wins next season.

1.4 wins * $5 mil/win equates to $7 mil. Wood’s fair market value would roughly call for a 2-yr/$14 mil deal. Last season, his base salary was $4.2 mil, though with incentives taken into account he earned just under $8 mil. We will have to wait and see what exactly Kerry signed for, but my initial inclination is that it will be more lucrative than an average annual value of $7 mil. As more details become available, we can determine just how much he was under- or over-valued, or if he was valued properly.

Then again, if he gets hurt, as has been customary for Mr. Wood, this all goes down the drain.

The Graduate: Ben Francisco | Born: October 1981 | Outfielder

Despite going the college route before signing his first pro contract, Ben Francisco took seven years to solidify a spot in the Majors and was a 26-year-old rookie in 2008. He had a solid, but unspectacular, season in Cleveland and hit .266/.332/.438 with 15 homers in 447 at-bats. Francisco also posted rates of 8.2 BB% and 19.2 K%. His power potential is average for a corner outfielder. Francisco hit right-handers and southpaws equally well in 2008.

The Riser: Carlos Santana | Born: April 1986 | Catcher

Stolen from the Dodgers in mid-season for aging Casey Blake, Carlos Santana adds to the glut of catchers in the Cleveland system. That said, his defence behind the plate is very much a work in progress as he began his pro career as an outfielder/third baseman. Santana, who has been catching for just two seasons, made 19 errors in 2008 and caught 34 of 126 base stealers. On the positive side, he is athletic enough to play other positions if he does not improve quickly enough for his defence to catch up to his bat. Offensively in 2008, Santana hit .323/.431/.563 in High-A ball for the Dodgers and .352/.452/.590 at the same level for the Indians. In total, he scored 125 runs, drove in 117 and hit 21 homers. He also walked more than he struck out (89-85).

The Tumbler: Adam Miller | Born: November 1984 | Right-Handed Pitcher

It’s now at the point where you wonder if Adam Miller will ever be healthy enough to pitch a full season. Coming out of high school in 2003, there were two very talented prepsters with the last name Miller: Adam and Andrew. Adam signed with the Indians as the 31st overall selection and Andrew, who made it widely known he planned to go to UNC, snubbed the Rays. Despite going the college route, and beginning his pro career three years later than Adam, Andrew has already played parts of three Major League seasons. Adam has yet to make an appearance in the Majors. Since 2003, Adam has managed just one health season – 2006 – when he went 15-6 at Double-A and allowed just 128 hits in 153.2 innings. He had a potentially solid 2008 season going at Triple-A in 2008 before injuries struck again. Adam had a 1.88 ERA in six starts. After pitching just 94 innings in the last two seasons, it is about time the Indians tried Adam as a late-game reliever.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Cord Phelps | Born: January 1987 | Second Baseman

Cord Phelps is an offensive-minded second baseman who features and advanced bat and could make it to Cleveland in a hurry. The switch-hitter batted .312/.378/.454 in 141 short season at-bats. He posted rates of 9.6 BB% and 15.6 K%. His .142 ISO was respectable for a middle infielder but some expect him to move to third base at some point in his career.

The ’09 Sleeper: Hector Rondon | Born: February 1988 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Hector Rondon has shown steady improvements over the past three seasons since coming over to North America. The Venezuela native allowed just 130 hits in 145 High-A ball innings in 2008. He also posted rates of 2.61 BB/9 and 9.00 K/9. Impressively, his strikeout rates have improved each year as the level of competition gets stronger. Rondon can hit the mid-90s with his fastball and also features a curveball and change-up.

Up Next: The Milwaukee Brewers

Michael Aubrey is a name you may have forgotten, unless you’re a Cleveland Indians fan. The first baseman is a former No. 1 draft pick (11th overall in 2003) out of Tulane University. Now 26, Aubrey is finally in the Major Leagues for the first time – a September cup of coffee.

Aubrey was considered the second-best, draft-eligible college hitter prior to the draft (Rickie Weeks was the top choice), according to Baseball America. The is what BA said at the time:

…Aubrey is a better pure hitter than any other college player in the nation. He projects as a .300-plus hitter with lots of doubles and 15-20 homers in the majors. He has a great approach at the plate and rarely gets fooled.

So, what took so long? What caused Aubrey to take six seasons to get to the Majors? And does he still have something in the tank, or is he a shadow of his former self.

The answer to the first question is: Injuries. In his debut season, after signing for more than $2 million, Aubrey played 38 games in A-ball. The next season he played 98 games between High-A ball and Double-A. Then in 2005 he managed just 28 Double-A games. The 2006 season was even worse, injury-wise, as Aubrey appeared in 14 games. The next year, though, he managed a whopping 65 games despite ongoing injuries. This season, Aubrey was able to appear 97 times during the minor league’s 130-game schedule.

The numbers for Aubrey this season do not inspire a lot of confidence, especially given his position at first base… and this leads us to the answer for the second question above. At Double-A, he hit .282/.333/.456 with two homers in 103 at-bats. He walked 7.2 percent of the time, and struck out at a rate of 11.7 percent. After a promotion to Triple-A, Aubrey hit .281/.328/.418 with seven homers in 285 at-bats. He walked just 5.3 percent of the time, with a strikeout rate of 14 percent.

At Double-A, Aubrey’s OPS was .790 and at Triple-A it was .736. His ISO at Double-A was .175 and .137 at Triple-A. An average ISO is considered to be .120, with most “power hitters” exceeding .200. So it’s clear, Aubrey is not a power hitter. And he doesn’t walk much. And he’s never hit above .283 at Double-A or Triple-A.

That said, Aubrey does have value. A .280 average isn’t bad for a bench player. He also swings from the left side, which gives him more value off the pine. Aubrey was also considered an excellent defender coming out of college so he could be a solid late-game option in the field. A part-time role might also help lessen the injuries that have plagued Aubrey’s career to this point.

All this suggests that Aubrey might be better suited for a career in the National League where bench players have more opportunities for regular playing time. In Cleveland, the first base/DH slots are pretty much filled with the likes of Travis Hafner (albeit apparently in a downward spiral) and Ryan Garko on the Major League roster. Cleveland also has first base prospects hot on Aubrey’s heels, such as Beau Mills, Matt LaPorta (currently playing the outfield), Jordan Brown, and Nick Weglarz (also seeing time in the outfield).

There is no question Aubrey still has value to a Major League club, but that team is most likely not Cleveland.