Archive for Cole Hamels

Game One of the National League Championship Series (NLCS) begins in Los Angeles tonight. Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels will take to the mound against the Dodgers’ young lefty Clayton Kershaw.

Hamels will look to throw the ball better than he did in his one NLDS start against Colorado. In that game, Hamels took the loss after allowing four runs on seven hits in five innings of work. If confidence plays into his success at all, Hamels should be brimming with it when facing the Dodgers. He dominated the team a year ago in the ’08 NLCS.

The offense was pretty darn successful against Colorado in the National League Division Series. Entering the ’09 NLCS, the hot hitters include the big names like Shane Victorino, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Chase Utley, and Raul Ibanez. Even Carlos Ruiz got in on the act. The one player we have yet to see break out in post-season play is shortstop Jimmy Rollins. He scored just one run in the NLDS, and posted an on-base average of just .263. Rollins did not drive in any runs, either, although, to be fair, that is not his job.

The bench – Miguel Cairo, Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, and Ben Francisco – was also quiet. Collectively, the quartet went 0-for-8 with one walk. That lack of production from the veterans could very easily have a much larger impact in the NLCS than it did in the NLDS.

As mentioned, these two teams faced off in the ’08 NLCS… With few major subtractions on either team, let’s have a look at the key additions for each club from one year ago.

Key Additions for Philadelphia:
Chan Ho Park, RHP
Pedro Martinez, RHP
Cliff Lee, LHP
Raul Ibanez, LF

Key Additions for Los Angeles:
Ronald Belisario, RHP
Vicente Padilla, RHP
George Sherrill, LHP
Randy Wolf, LHP
Jeff Weaver, RHP
Ronnie Belliard, 2B
Orlando Hudson, 2B
Jim Thome, 1B

Los Angeles has certainly had the bigger of the two face-lifts. Overall, though, you have to like the value of Philadelphia’s four additions over the eight players that LA added, based on what they collectively provided during the regular season: 12.3 vs 9.2 WAR.

On paper, it’s hard to pick a favorite to win the NLCS. Both teams have good pitching and good hitting. For the fans, this could end up being a very entertaining series. I’m also willing to bet that the bullpens and benches will play much larger roles than they did in the two division series.

The defending World Champions came away with a win against the Colorado Rockies in Game 1 of the National League Division Series on Wednesday. Starter Cliff Lee, obtained from Cleveland at mid-season, threw a complete game and allowed just six hits. He did not walk a batter and he struck out five Colorado hitters.

Lee threw 70% of his pitches for strikes against the Colorado batters. The opposing hitters who had the most luck against him were outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, both of whom had two hits.

Lee’s strategy was clear in the game: Pitch off of the fastball. The Colorado batters were unable to handle his combination of velocity, movement and location. In the first inning of the game, 11 of Lee’s 14 pitches were fastballs. Fast-forward to the ninth inning and 15 of Lee’s 17 pitches were four-seam fastballs (the other two pitches were a curveball and a changeup). In the final frame, Lee’s fastball ranged from 88-94 mph – including the last pitch of the inning, which was a 94 mph heater that third baseman Garrett Atkins swung through. Lee’s best pitch all year has been his fastball (18.1 wFB) so he stuck to his strengths and he had success.

Today, the Phillies will send Cole Hamels to the mound against Colorado’s veteran hurler Aaron Cook. Hamels will likely look to set up the Rockies hitters with his fastball before going to his changeup for outs (11.7 wCH). The Rockies that have had the most success hitting changeups include first baseman Todd Helton, right-fielder Brad Hawpe, and center-fielder Dexter Fowler.

Cook is predominantly a sinker-ball pitcher (56.7 GB%), who also utilizes a slider mostly to throw off hitters’ timings. The key for the Phillies hitters will be to concentrate on driving the ball hard, and to not worry about trying to lift the ball or hit the long ball. Career-wise, a number of Phillies hitters have had success against Cook, including Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Jayson Werth. Pinch-hitter Matt Stairs is a perfect 3-for-3 against Cook in his career, including a homer.

Entering spring training, the Phillies were set in four of their five starting pitching slots, with Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton. The fifth spot would be up for grabs between Kyle Kendrick, J.A. Happ, newly acquired Chan Ho Park, and prospect Carlos Carrasco. Kendrick and Carrasco have both struggled in limited action thus far, while Happ and Park have done nothing but impress. In fact, their duel might be making more headlines in Philadelphia if it weren’t for the fact that Hamels recently took a plane ride back home to get a tight left elbow examined.

Hamels insists that the “injury” is nothing serious and that he should be okay for his opening day start on April 5th against the Braves. Apparently, he feels fine while pitching and does not experience any soreness, tightness, or tenderness following an outing, but has slight discomfort in between innings. Many will be quick to point out his elevated workload and its role in this situation, but let’s not get too ahead of ourselves.

In 2006, Hamels logged 181.1, 73% of which occurred at the major league level. The following season, Cole pitched a total of 190 innings including his lone postseason start against the Rockies. This past year, however, he combined 227.1 regular season innings with 35 more in the playoffs to surpass his 2007 total by just over 72 frames. In the process, his name found its way into several columns discussing the Verducci Effect, which theorizes that young pitchers experiencing a significant increase in workload are more vulnerable to injuries.

Despite Hamels’ insistence that the issue might be overblown, he is not going to risk his entire season in order to toe the rubber on opening day. If, for whatever reason, his left elbow has more damage than meets the eye, both Park and Happ will end up in the rotation to start the season, rendering their current competition moot. Unfortunately, this would not be a consolation for anyone outside of either Park or Happ, as the Phillies will need a healthy Hamels to have any shot of making the playoffs, let alone repeating.

This is not the first time Hamels has had to battle with the injury bug and CHONE seems to recognize this, suggesting that the World Series MVP will make just 29 starts. Despite the dropoff in playing time, his forecast calls for a higher strikeout rate while sustaining the walk rate, FIP, and strand percentage. Hamels is a true ace in every sense of the term, and despite both his and Amaro’s subtle hints at annoyance that this story is making plenty of headlines, even the slightest talk of ailments to the lefty is going to set the Phanbase into a frenzy of speculation.

If everything that has been said is 100% accurate, then Hamels will not miss any time to start the season, will kick off the entire major league baseball schedule, and cause a logjam in that final rotation spot, causing either Park or Happ to start the season in the bullpen. More updates as they come.

Entering yesterday’s Game Five between the Phillies and Rays, Cole Hamels had pitched brilliantly in four straight post-season starts, and could have become the first pitcher in the Wild Card era to win all five of his playoff starts. Due to the nasty weather conditions, it is unlikely for him to reach this feat, but he could still pull it off if the Phillies take the lead in the bottom of the sixth inning and hold on for the victory. Sure, it would be quite the odd win, but regardless of whether or not he records a decision, his post-season has been extremely stellar.

In five starts, he scattered 23 hits over 35 innings, walking 9, striking out 30, and surrendering just two home runs. All told, he produced a 1.80 ERA, 3.33 K/BB, 0.91 WHIP, and a 2.92 FIP. While he has pitched beautifully and basically provided a guarantee that the Phillies would win or, at the very least, stay in the ballgame, he is not alone in post-season dominance this decade. From 2000-2007, I found five other post-seasons that either matched or surpassed Hamels in 2008.

In 2001, we saw a pair of amazing performances from the Diamondbacks dynamic duo of Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson. In six starts, Schilling posted the following: 48.1 IP, 25 H, 3 HR, 6 BB, 56 K. Those numbers resulted in a miniscule 1.12 ERA, a 0.64 WHIP, a 9.33 K/BB, and a 1.98 FIP. Teammate Johnson appeared in six games, five of which were starts, putting together the following line: 41.1 IP, 25 H, 2 HR, 8 BB, 47 K. His 5.88 K/BB is fantastic but actually pales in comparison to Schilling’s, as do his 1.52 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. His FIP of 2.06 comes strikingly close, however. It is no wonder the Diamondbacks were able to win the World Series.

In 2003, Andy Pettitte put together a tremendous line, even though the Yankees ended up losing the World Series to the Florida Marlins. Pettitte, in five starts, produced a 2.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 3.09 K/BB, and 3.24 FIP. Josh Beckett, then a member of the series winning Marlins, put together even better post-season numbers: a 2.11 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 3.92 K/BB, and 2.67 FIP in 42.2 innings assembled over five starts.

Beckett further cemented himself as arguably the best playoff pitcher in recent history, if not ever, with his line in 2007 as a member of the Red Sox: 4 GS, 30 IP, 19 H, 4 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 35 K. Yes, Beckett produced a K/BB of 17.50, almost doubling Schilling’s overly impressive ratio from 2001. Beckett posted a 1.20 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, and an astounding 1.42 FIP, which is actually lower than that of others before adding the 3-3.20 ERA normalizing number. Hamels may have just put the finishing touches on a brilliant post-season, but let’s not forget that there have been other absolutely tremendous performances. Which do you think was the best? Beckett in 2007, or Schilling in 2001?

When the Mets traded for Johan Santana and promptly signed him to a six year contract extension, I was one of few Phillies fans actually excited that their rivals had just acquired arguably the best pitcher in the game. My sentiment was that, come September, I could not wait for a Santana vs. Cole Hamels matchup with the division potentially on the line; two of the league’s best lefties, with the best two changeups in baseball, squaring off with the collective fanbase of each team hanging onto every pitch. You can imagine that when Sunday’s game was moved to 8 pm EST, to be the ESPN national Sunday Night Game, everything I looked forward to before the season had gone to that next level.

What occurred, however, was a pretty one-sided beating in which the score did not tell the whole story. The Mets may have won 6-3, but the deficit seemed much larger than that, as the Phillies failed to do anything against Johan Santana for virtually the entire game. Hamels pitched poorly, giving Carlos Delgado’s much-publicized book some great notes to add, and the Phillies failed to put the finishing touches on a sweep that would have put them in a tie for first place.

With 19 games to play, the Mets are in the driver’s seat with a two game lead. Last year, with 17 games remaining, the Mets led by 7 games and managed to lose the division. One of the primary reasons for that collapse was a sweep at the hands of the Phillies, which directly loosened their divisional grip by three games. Unlike then, the Phillies and Mets are now finished playing each other for the season, which means the division will be decided by how they fare against their remaining opponents.

The Phillies start a three game set with the Marlins tonight, before playing the Brewers for four. Following that seven game homestand, they go to Atlanta and then Florida for three games each, before returning home to finish the year out against the Braves and Nationals. All told, they have 3 against the Nationals, 4 against the Brewers, 6 against the Marlins, and 6 against the Braves. The Mets, on the other hand, have 3 against the Marlins, 4 against the Cubs, 6 against the Nationals, and 6 against the Braves. It seems that the division will be decided by which team fares the best against potential NL East spoilers and the top-tier NL Central teams. Or, the Marlins could win all six against the Phillies and all three against the Mets and win the division.

This September might not have the exact makings of 2007, but it still has the potential to be a very fun and intense stretch of 19 games. Throw in the close proximity between the DBacks-Dodgers and Twins-White Sox and there are three potential divisions that could be decided over the last few games.