Archive for Dan Haren

During the winter meetings this past December, we heard about Dan Haren’s fierce desire to stay in Los Angeles as a member of the Dodgers, with the right-hander even going so far as to say he would retire if he were traded. Dodgers’ GM Andrew Friedman called Haren’s bluff, shipping him to Miami with Dee Gordon in what turned out to be a chain of events resulting in the Dodgers nabbing Howie Kendrick from the Angels. With this trade deadline, there was no such threat of retirement from Haren: he’s now moving to Chicago to add depth to the Cubs’ rotation.

Though the Cubs kicked the tires on some of the better pitching help on the trading block, there was never really the sense that they needed to pull that particular trigger, as their rotation currently sits in the top five in baseball for ERA, FIP, and xFIP. With a starting four of Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Jason Hammel, and Kyle Hendricks — each of whom have made at least 20 starts this season while contributing at least 2.0 WAR — the Haren deal represents a depth move to fill innings in that fifth starting slot down the stretch. Given Haren’s impending free agency this winter, the move is also purely about 2015.

Haren should be an upgrade 0ver the Cubs’ current weak options for their fifth starting spot. Even though he’s dealt with a continued velocity decline (his average fastball velocity has fallen 4 MPH since 2011, down to 86 MPH this season), he’s found a way to make it work, relying on his curveball and cutter more to post numbers that, on the surface, look good (namely a 3.42 ERA in 2015).

The ominous news comes when we dig a little deeper: he currently owns the highest strand rate of his career (82.5%), the lowest BABIP (.248) and is showing extreme fly ball tendencies this season (he’s second-highest among qualified starters in fly ball rate, at 49.1%). That final issue could become a problem with the move to Wrigley, as he’s going from a very pitcher-friendly home park in terms of home runs to a more neutral home run setting. Giving up home runs has always been an issue for Haren, and they could pose a serious problem should that high fly ball rate mix poorly with a less forgiving environment.

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Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com is reporting the Los Angeles Dodgers have signed Dan Haren to a one-year, $10 million deal that has a vesting 2015 option if Haren works at least 180 innings next season. Last month, when we did our crowdsourcing for Haren, Carson Cistulli presented the following Haren facts:
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The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have until Friday to decide what they’re going to do with Dan Haren. The team has a $15.5 million dollar option for 2013 or it can choose a $3.5 million buyout, which would make Haren a free agent. There’s no doubt there will be suitors for Haren — should he hit the free-agent market — but the question the Angels are probably trying to figure out is if there’s a market for him at $12 million.

If the Angels can find a trade partner, it’s likely they’d pick up the $15.5 million option and send $3.5 million in cash with Haren for whatever parts would be acceptable in return. This is obviously preferable than absolutely nothing for $3.5 million, and it’s not out of the question that the Angels might find a middling prospect or perhaps a useful bullpen piece. Or, another option would be to simply pay the man with the hope he can regain the form that saw him average better than 5 WAR in the past seven seasons. Given their recent dangling of Haren on the trade front seems to suggest the team thinks such a hope is foolhardy.

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Coming into the season, the Angels picking up Dan Haren’s $15.5M option for the 2013 was a foregone conclusion. He had been a workhorse in recent years, throwing 1581.1 innings between 2005 and 2011 and compiling an 81 ERA- and 82 FIP- over that stretch. A $15.5M option was a no-brainer for a five-or-six win player.

Now, sitting with a disappointing 4.82 ERA in late August and concerns lingering about his health, Angels GM Jerry Dipoto and his staff must determine whether Haren is a smart investment for the organization.

The questions about his health started in early July, when Haren spent 19 days on the disabled list with a back injury — one that has reportedly been an issue since spring training. It marked his first stint on the disabled list as a professional. It also helped explain his uncharacteristic struggles on the mound.

More specifically, the injury accounted for his significant velocity decrease from 2011 to 2012. Our own Wendy Thurm examined the effects of less velocity on every one of his pitches this year. The real problem, however, reared its head when Haren’s velocity didn’t improve after his stint on the disabled list. If anything, his velocity decreased even more:

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The Diamondbacks have capitalized on the Giants’ offensive ineptitude and slew of injuries, winning eight of their last 11 games and taking a two-and-a-half game lead in the National League West. A year after losing 97 games, the team is primed for a playoff push. Arizona hasn’t missed a beat, despite issues that might have taken down a lesser team. Losing Stephen Drew and lacking an everyday first baseman might push other teams out of the race, but the Diamondbacks are playing some of their best baseball right now.

Their success is a testament to an improved bullpen, potent offense and a young, effective starting rotation. But the rotation would be even more potent these days had the team not made a questionable trade last season — a trade that seems even stranger by the month and is still without reasonable justification. It’s a trade that — if avoided and all else were held constant — would likely have the D-backs with a firm handle on a playoff berth. It’s a trade that sent one of the best starters in baseball, Dan Haren, to the Angels for Joe Saunders, Tyler Skaggs, Rafael Rodriguez and Pat Corbin.

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Note: The title of this post makes almost no sense in the context of what follows — and, yet, it feels so right.

If you’re the sort of person who has to “work tomorrow,” then maybe tonight’s game isn’t for you.

If that’s the case, however, you might wanna ask your doctor if you’re suffering from a really serious condition known as Being a Giant Puss.

I’m just saying.

Atlanta at Arizona | Monday, June 07 | 9:40pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Braves: Derek Lowe (NERD: 5)
71.0 IP, 5.32 K/9, 3.80 BB/9, .288 BABIP, 59.1% GB, 9.8% HR/FB, 4.21 xFIP

D-Backs: Dan Haren (NERD: 10)
82.0 IP, 9.11 K/9, 1.65 BB/9, .342 BABIP, 43.9% GB, 17.0% HR/FB, 3.22 xFIP

A Question You’re Asking, Stat
Carson, fess up: did you just pick this game because it came first alphabetically?

The Answer I’m Answering
That’s ridiculous. I don’t even know the alphabet.

Watch For
• Dan Haren. Haren is of supreme interest to the baseball nerd at the moment. While posting an xFIP (3.22) completely in line with his performances of the previous two seasons, the righty currently sports his highest ERA (4.83) since 2003. If you like to watch regression in action — and because you’re a nerd, you almost definitely do like to watch regression in action — you can watch it tonight in Phoenix.
• Jason Heyward. I says to my friend Danny the other day, I says: “Danny, would you watch an Atlanta Braves game just to see Jason Heyward?” As he was currently drinking like his 17th beer, his answer was mostly a kinda frightening combination of grunts and snarls, but what I gathered from him is that, yes, he would do that kind of thing.
• Kelly Johnson. True or false: He’s better than Bad News Bear Kelly Leak. You decide, America!

Did You Know That
Dan Haren’s strikeout rate has increased literally every year he’s been in the league? Check it, 2003-10: 5.33, 6.26, 6.76, 7.10, 7.76, 8.58, 8.75, and this year’s 9.11. If my calculations are correct, Dan Haren will strike out more batters than is even possible to face in the year 2017.

Also, Did You Know That
Jason Heyward is like 60 or a hundred feet tall? At least that’s how big he looks from the comfort of my own living room.

If I Had My Druthers
• Dan Haren would strike out all 27 Braves in order.
• Jason Heyward would still somehow manage four homers.
• My wife wouldn’t make us (i.e. me and her) shop at Whole Foods all the time. (No, not relevant at all to the present game, but still a druther I’d really like to have.)

Commenter Derek mentioned last week that neither Dan Haren nor Brandon Webb had crossed our 30-ballot threshold, so this edition of our Fan Projection Targets goes out to him. Today’s targets, in no particular order, are: Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, and Billy Buckner. Now go project the hell out of them.

Haren cemented his place among the majors’ best starters last year, posting a 3.08 xFIP while topping 200 IP for the fifth consecutive year.

Webb, after having also having topped 200 IP for five consecutive years, pitched all of four innings last year while dealing with shoulder problems.

Though he had a 6.40 ERA last year, Buckner’s 3.95 xFIP suggests that he has the skill to succeed. He’s tentatively slated as Arizona’s fifth starter.

The Sacramento River Cats repeated as Pacific Coast League (Triple-A) champions on the weekend after defeating Oklahoma (Texas) in the fourth game of a best-of-five series.

It was the left-handed arm of one of Oakland’s top pitching prospects that helped to lead the team to victory, as Brett Anderson snared two victories in the series despite having never pitched in a Triple-A game before the playoffs began.

In fact, Anderson, 20, opened the season in High-A ball where he made 14 appearances (13 starts) and allowed 68 hits in 74 innings. He walked 18 and struck out 80 with an average fastball, three pitches that can be plus at times: curve ball, slider, change-up, as well as excellent command.

Anderson was then promoted to Double-A where he made six starts and allowed 27 hits in 31 innings. He walked nine and stuck out 38. Obviously impressed by the 20-year-old, who was acquired from Arizona last off-season in the Dan Haren trade, the Oakland decision makers promoted Anderson to Triple-A for the playoffs.

He made his first appearance in relief during the first-round series against Salt Lake (Los Angeles AL). He pitched four innings of relief and allowed three runs on six hits and two walks. He also struck out three and pitched well enough to earn his first career save.

With his feet wet, Anderson was then inserted into the starting rotation for the PCL championship series and he started Game 1. He worked five innings and allowed two runs on six hits and a walk. He added three strikeouts and took the victory against a lineup that included a number of minor league veterans, including Ryan Roberts, and Chris Shelton, as well as prospects like Max Ramirez, and John Mayberry.

In Game 4, Anderson was even better as he pitched seven strong innings and allowed just two runs on five hits and three walks. He added three more strikeouts and induced 11 groundball outs, compared to six flyball outs.

To the Sacramento Bee newspaper, manager Todd Steverson said of Anderson, “He stepped up. Throwing in the series-clinching game and being able to keep his poise the way he did, he’s got a bright future.”

Not even old enough to drink, Anderson recorded two wins and a save in his first three Triple-A games against two of the top teams in the league. He has a bright future, indeed.

It’s not often that a player with Chris Carter’s talent spends time with three clubs in the span of two weeks. With 39 dingers, the hulking infielder tied for second overall in minor league home runs in 2008 while playing for Oakland’s High-A ball affiliate in Stockton.

Carter, now 21, was originally drafted in the 15th round of the 2005 draft out of a Las Vegas high school. He spent three seasons in the White Sox organization before being sent to Arizona on Dec. 3, 2007 for fellow slugger Carlos Quentin. Eleven days later, Carter was part of the bounty that netted Arizona pitcher Dan Haren from the Oakland Athletics.

In his first full season in the minors in 2007, after two Rookie ball campaigns, Carter slugged 25 homers, drove in 93 runs and hit .291/.383/.522. His power numbers took another step forward this season with the Oakland organization, including an ISO increase from .231 to .310, while some of his other numbers took a step back. Carter hit .259/.361/.569 with 156 strikeouts and 77 walks in 506 at-bats. His strikeout rate rose from 24% in 2007 to 30.8% in 2008, while his walk rate remained roughly the same. Carter’s batting average was a bit of a disappointment but his BABIP was .296, compared to .336 in 2007.

Oakland has another first base prospect, Sean Doolittle, who played most of the season on the same squad as Carter, before a late-season promotion to Double-A. Carter spent time at third base to accommodate his teammate but his defence is below average at both third base (41 games, 14 errors) and first base.

Doolittle, a slick fielder, is not a classic slugger like Carter and is more of a hitter in the mold of John Olerud or Lyle Overbay. The two players should open 2009 on the same team again and it will be interesting to see which player takes the next big step needed to secure a future role on the big league club.

The Diamondbacks have been a disappointment so far this season, failing to distance themselves from their NL West rivals on several occasions. Now, with a month and a half remaining, they face the serious possibility of losing the division and missing the post-season. None of these woes can really be attributed to Brandon Webb or Dan Haren, however, as both pitchers have been fantastic this year.

A couple months ago that I would take Webb over Haren in a crucial situation but that there weren’t any other twosomes I would want to headline my rotation. Granted, a CC Sabathia/Ben Sheets twosome may give them a run for their money now that Sabathia is in the senior circuit, but Webb/Haren have both put together great seasons. Which one is having the better year right now, though? Even though we know and understand that W-L records are terrible evaluative barometers, it’s pretty hard to look at Webb’s 18-4 mark and completely disregard it. That’s what we need to do, however, to get a clear picture of everything. Here are some comparisons:

Webb: 2.85 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
Haren: 2.96 ERA, 1.03 WHIP

Webb: 177 IP, 154 H, 9 HR
Haren: 167 IP, 143 H, 14 HR

Webb: 7.37 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, 3.45 K/BB
Haren: 8.41 K/9, 1.56 BB/9, 5.38 K/BB

Webb: 2.96 FIP, .291 BABIP, 72.8% LOB
Haren: 2.91 FIP, .291 BABIP, 74.3% LOB

Webb: 2.12 WPA/LI, 2.66 REW, 26.73 BRAA
Haren: 3.23 WPA/LI, 3.14 REW, 31.68 BRAA

The first two comparisons may lean towards Webb, but after that it is pretty tough to argue that Haren has not been the better pitcher to date. He doesn’t walk anyone, has a great strikeout rate, isn’t posting an unsustainably high strand rate, and his BABIP isn’t abnormally low either. On top of that, his context-neutral contributions are over one full win better than Webb, while his wins based on shifts in run expectancy are almost a half-win better.

One of the aspects I touched on last time dealt with Webb having better numbers in high leverage situations. That has not changed:

Webb: .200/.260/.264, .524 OPS
Haren: .289/.317/.447, .764 OPS

The caveat to this, however, is that Webb has 126 PA in these situations and Haren only has 84. Haren doesn’t seem to be as good under the pressure but he has been good enough this season to avoid these pressure situations. Granted, some of this is also contingent upon the defense and game state but you may be inclined to think that the better a pitcher is, the less high leverage situations he would find himself in. It won’t be true in all cases, but if a pitcher is constantly in the midst of high leverage situations—and he isn’t a late inning reliever—that means runners are constantly reaching base and posing legitimate run-scoring threats.

Just 12.6% of Haren’s PAs this year have been of this nature whereas Webb is under pressure 17.4% of the time. Take from that what you will, or take away nothing from it. If nothing else, it is interesting to note. It looks like Haren has performed better than his sinker-balling teammate this year even though most people are going to be swayed by Webb’s impressive W-L record and slightly lower ERA. Don’t be fooled, though… Haren has been just as effective, if not better. If they do manage to make the playoffs this twosome could prove huge in their World Series chances.