Archive for danny duffy

Perhaps lost a bit in the trade-deadline shuffle, Kansas City left-hander Danny Duffy pitched one of the very best games of the year this past Monday. On the road against Tampa Bay, he had a no-hitter going until the eighth inning. By the time that inning had ended, Duffy had recorded 16 strikeouts against just one hit and one walk. After a fairly mediocre 2015 season spent mostly in the rotation, Duffy looked to be the next in line to become a very good reliever on a Royals team that has had its fair share. For the first month of the season Duffy pitched quite well out of the pen, but since the middle of May, he’s been a part of the rotation. Jeff Sullivan chronicled Duffy’s rise in the middle of June, noting in particular the lefty’s ability to throw for strikes, and hitters’ general inability to hit those strikes.

The numbers Sullivan cited in his post six weeks ago have remained good since then. Danny Duffy is generally a strike-thrower, keeping the ball in the zone 53% of the time this season, a figure which ranks sixth out of 95 qualified pitchers. Nor is he necessarily pitching to contact, however: his 78% Z-Contact rate is third in baseball behind only knuckleballer Steven Wright and Max Scherzer. Hitters haven’t fared too much better outside of the zone: his 56.6% O-Contact rate is 13th among qualifiers. His overall contact percentage (72%) and swinging-strike percentage (14.3%) sit behind only the figures produced by Jose Fernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Michael Pineda, Max Scherzer, and Noah Syndergaard. His 62% first-strike rate is good, but closer to the middle of the pack.

In Duffy’s brilliant game against he Rays, his first-strike percentage was actually a tad lower than normal at 53.9%, and his zone percentage was just a bit under 50%. Where Duffy excelled was getting the Rays to chase the ball outside the strike zone. Of the pitches outside of the strike zone, Rays batters swung at 44% of them and made contact on just 20% of swings.

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General Manager: Dayton Moore
Farm Director: Mike Arbuckle
Scouting Director: J.J. Picollo

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The system certainly has some talent brewing, but most of it lies below the double-A level, so fans are going to have to be patient. A renewed emphasis on the draft should definitely help turn the organization around. For more on the ’09 draft picks, see yesterday’s post.

1. Mike Montgomery, LHP, high-A
DOB: July 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

If the organization can find a way to keep its current ace, then it could have a nasty one-two punch at the MLB level with Zack Greinke and Montgomery. The left-hander has flown through the system and will likely open ’10 in double-A. Montgomery, 20, posted a 2.30 FIP in 52.0 innings in high-A in ’09. He allowed just 38 hits and posted a walk rate of 2.08 BB/9. He also showed that he can miss some bats with a strikeout rate of 7.96 K/9. In his career, Montgomery has allowed just three homers in 152.2 innings of work, thanks in part to his solid ground-ball rates. His rate averaged out at 50% for the ’09 season.

2. Mike Moustakas, 3B, high-A
DOB: September 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Still just 21 years of age, Moustakas has been hurt by some low BABIPs over the past two seasons: .291 in ’08 and .277 in ’09. As a result, this former No. 1 draft pick’s triple-slash numbers have plummeted each of his three pro seasons. Moustakas is going to have to improve his patience at the plate (6.1 BB% in ’09) but he does flash some raw power (.171 ISO in ’09). A .319 wOBA is not going to make him an impact third baseman.

3. Eric Hosmer, 1B, high-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Big things were expected of Hosmer in ’09, but he struggled with his vision and hit just .254/.352/.382 in 280 low-A at-bats. Curiously, the organization chose to promote the first baseman despite the lackluster numbers. He then hit .206/.280/.299 in 97 high-A at-bats. On the plus side, Hosmer posted a walk rate of 13.6% in low-A, which is extra impressive considering he was not seeing the ball very well.

4. Danny Duffy, LHP, high-A
DOB: December 1988 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 3rd round – California HS
MLB ETA: mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curveball, slider, change-up

He’s certainly not the hardest thrower in the system, but Duffy knows how to pitch, as witnessed by his 2.84 FIP in high-A ball in ’09. Duffy allowed 108 hits in 126.2 innings of work. He gave up just six homers (0.43 HR/9) and showed solid control with a walk rate of 2.91 BB/9. His strikeout rate dropped from 11.24 in low-A in ’08 to 8.88 K/9 in ’09, but it’s still an encouraging number. A word of caution: Despite his low homers-allowed totals, Duffy is a fly-ball pitcher. He posted a ground-ball rate of just 42.2% in ’09 and 36.6% in ’08, so that suggests he’s going to have to work down in the zone a little more.

5. Tim Melville, RHP, low-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 4th round – Missouri HS
MLB ETA: early-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Melville entered the ’08 draft more highly regarded than organization-mate Montgomery, who has now passed him. Melville had a solid debut year (unlike Montgomery, he did not pitch in ’08) and allowed just 89 hits in 97.1 innings. The right-hander pitches up in the zone more than Montgomery, and he was hurt by a 0.92 HR/9 rate. He also showed less control with a walk rate of 3.98 BB/9. Melville did, however, show the ability to strike out batters with a K-rate of 8.88 K/9.

6. Kila Ka’aihue, 1B, triple-A
DOB: March 1984 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2002 15th round – Hawaii HS
MLB ETA: early-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 1

Ka’aihue was the forgotten man in the organization while Mike Jacobs played everyday and provided below average production (-0.7 WAR). Despite slugging 38 homers in ’08, the 25-year-old spent the entire year in triple-A where he hit .252/.392/.433 with an ISO of .181 in 441 at-bats. Ka’aihue walked 102 times on the year… or six fewer times than Jacobs has in the last three years combined. If Kansas City is not going to take him seriously as a cheap source of power, it should do the slugger a favor by trading him.

7. David Lough, OF, double-A
DOB: January 1986 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 11th round – Mercyhurst College
MLB ETA: mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The 23-year-old Lough had a breakout ’09 season and could be the best in-house option to eventually replace David DeJesus or Coco Crisp (when they are deemed too expensive). Lough, though, is probably still a year away from being ready to play everyday at the MLB level. In ’09, he began the year in high-A and hit .320/.370/.473 in 222 at-bats. He then moved up to double-A where he hit .331/.371/.517 with a .186 ISO in 236 at-bats. Lough stole 19 bases but was caught eight times, and he needs to get on base more frequently (4.8 BB% in double-A) to take advantage of his speed.

8. Jeff Bianchi, SS, double-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 2nd round – Pennsylvania HS
MLB ETA: late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Finally healthy, Bianchi showed consistency in ’09 and reached double-A. In high-A ball, the shortstop hit .300/.360/.427 in 220 at-bats. Moved up to double-A, Bianchi responded with a triple-slash line of .315/.356/.441 in 270 at-bats. He also stole 22 bases on the year and was caught just six times. The 23-year-old infielder strikes out too much (21.5 K%) for his modest power.

9. John Lamb, LHP, rookie
DOB: July 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 5th round – California HS
MLB ETA: late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 87-91 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Lamb did not pitch after signing in ’08, so he made his pro debut in ’09 and pitched well at two rookie ball levels. Overall, he allowed 57 hits in 68.2 innings and showed good control with a walk rate around 2.70 BB/9. Despite an average fastball, Lamb used his control and deception to strike out almost one batter per inning. He should jump to low-A in 2010, and he still has a long way to climb before reaching Kansas City.

10. Tyler Sample, RHP, rookie
DOB: June 1989 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Colorado HS
MLB ETA: mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

This ’08 draft pick gets lost in the shuffle behind some of the bigger names, but Sample had an impressive year in ’09. The right-hander allowed 41 hits in 54.2 innings of work while posting a strikeout rate around 8.00 K/9. His control is still a work in progress, but it was right around 3.60 BB/9. Sample posted a modest 43.4% ground-ball rate, but he allowed just two home runs (0.16 HR/9).

Up Next: The St. Louis Cardinals

This week we’re taking a look at some of the leader boards in double-A and high-A ball. Today, we’ll take a look at the leaders in Strikeouts Per 9 Innings (K/9) and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) among the three high-A leagues: the California League, the Carolina League and the Florida State League.

As with the high-A hitters, I want to add a caution with this league. The California League, is an extreme hitter’s league, so many of the pitchers’ numbers are more impressive than they appear. The Carolina League is also a difficult league to pitch in, although not quite as bad as the Cal League. The Florida State League is widely considered a pitcher’s league.

11.20- Chris Withrow, RHP, Los Angeles NL

Elbow soreness limited this former first-round pick to just four innings in 2008. His control has been off in 2009 (4.93 BB/9) but Withrow is still racking up the Ks. The 20-year-old has a 4.82 ERA, but his FIP is just 3.03. In 80.1 innings, he’s allowed 73 hits and just three homers.

10.24- Corey Kluber, RHP, San Diego

Kluber, 23, had a rough introduction to high-A in 2008 when he posted a 6.01 ERA (4.08 FIP) with 93 hits allowed in 85.1 innings of work. The right-hander was still a little too hittable in 2009 at the same level when he allowed 110 hits in 109 innings. Kluber did, though, post a strikeout rate of 10.24 K/9, as well as a walk rate of 2.97 BB/9. He’s now pitching in double-A, where he’s made just one start.

9.75- Connor Graham, RHP, Colorado

Graham has posted some good ERAs (and FIPs) in his first three minor-league seasons but his control has been less than impressive (5.07 BB/9 in ’08, 4.59 in ’09). This season he’s allowed just 68 hits in 80.1 innings of work, while also posting a strikeout rate of 9.75 K/9. With a mid-90s fastball and good slider (and not much else), Graham is probably a late-game reliever in the long run (a role he held in college).

2.58- Cory Luebke, LHP, San Diego

Luebke joins teammate Kluber on this list. Whereas Kluber was borderline old for the league, Luebke was certainly an over-ager at 24. The left-hander also struggled during his first taste of the California League in 2008 with a 6.84 ERA (3.93 FIP) and 97 hits allowed in 72.1 innings of work. This year, he allowed 73 hits in 88.1 innings, while also posting a walk rate of 1.73 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.15 K/9. He’s now pitching in double-A with Kluber and has made three starts.

2.84- Jake Wild, RHP, Seattle

A senior sign out of college in 2007, Wild will be 25 in August so he’s definitely old for the league. He’s bounced between the starting rotation and the bullpen in 2009, while showing good control (2.23 BB/9) and modest strikeout numbers (7.92 K/9). He’s been hittable with 104 hits allowed in 88.2 innings of work.

2.96- Joshua Collmenter, RHP, Arizona

The Diamondbacks organization really needs some prospects, so Arizona has to be encouraged with Collmenter’s season, even if he is 23 and pitching in high-A. The right-hander has allowed 87 hits in 104.1 innings, while also posting a walk rate of 2.85 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.06 K/9. The 6’4” 235 pound Collmenter has a big, strong pitcher’s frame and he has an outside shot of developing into a No. 4 starter.

9.92- Eammon Portice, RHP, Boston

The Boston organization is flush with prospects and Portice is one name that does not get a ton of attention, in part because he’s pitching in high-A at the age of 24. The right-hander has made 17 starts but he projects as a reliever in the Majors due to a his violent delivery and lack of a third reliable pitch. Portice has shown improved control and he induces a lot of groundballs when he’s sharp.

8.70- Danny Duffy, LHP, Kansas City

One of the most promising pitchers in the entire league, Duffy is just 20 years old. He’s allowed 83 hits in 90 innings, while posting a walk rate of 2.90 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.70 K/9. On the downside, his K rate has dropped each year of his three-year pro career, while his ERA (and FIP) has risen each season.

8.53- Zach Britton, LHP, Baltimore

Like Boston, Baltimore is another organization that is rich in pitching depth and Britton often gets lost behind the likes of Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and Jake Arrieta. The southpaw, though, is extremely talented and has allowed just 87 hits in 101.1 innings of work. The 21-year-old hurler has allowed four homers. He has, though, struggled with his control a little bit (3.74 BB/9).

2.72- Bradley Meyers, RHP, Washington

Meyers was considered a possible supplemental first-round draft pick (in both high school and college) before his poor showing in his draft year of college. The Nationals got him in the fifth round and it’s taken him a little while to get acclimatized to professional baseball. Things have clicked for Meyers, 23, in 2009, and he allowed 71 hits in 88.1 innings, while also posting a walk rate of 2.14 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.62 K/9. He also had a 1.43 ERA (but 2.72 FIP) before his promotion to double-A, where he’s made just one start. He has a fastball that can touch 93 mph, a slider, and a changeup.

2.96- Danny Duffy, LHP, Kansas City

See Above.

3.06- Eammon Portice, RHP, Boston

See Above.

8.87- Evan Anundsen, RHP, Milwaukee

Anundsen has had one of the biggest jumps in value among any pitcher in high-A ball in 2009. The right-hander has seen his K rate jump by about 2 Ks per nine innings over his career norm, while also maintaining a solid walk rate (2.60). He’s also allowed just 67 hits in 93.1 innings of work. The right-hander is just 21 years of age.

8.75- David Newmann, LHP, Tampa Bay

Newmann was a fourth round pick coming out of college, but he did not get into game action after signing in 2007 and then he blew out his knee in the spring of 2008 and missed the entire season. As a result, the southpaw made his pro debut in 2009 at high-A ball. Considering the amount of time that he’s missed, you have to be impressed with his numbers, including his control at 3.67 K/9.

8.50- Darin Downs, LHP, Tampa Bay

A former Cubs prospect, Downs has seen his walk rate improve significantly (1.77 BB/9) over his 2008 season, when he posted a rate of 6.17 BB/9 in 22 double-A games. The left-hander has been too hittable with 104 hits allowed in 101.2 innings and he’s also 24 years old.

2.39- Evan Anundsen, RHP, Milwaukee

See Above.

2.57- Jose Rosario, RHP, Florida

Rosario is 23 years of age and he’s having his first successful season in pro ball since coming over to North America from the Dominican Republic. The right-hander has shown excellent control with a walk rate of 1.59 BB/9. He also has a strikeout rate of 7.75 K/9 and has allowed just two homers on the year. Rosario, though, is an extreme fly-ball pitcher who has been aided by the big parks.

2.76- Lance Pendleton, RHP, New York AL

Pendleton was a fourth round pick out of Rice University in 2005, but he missed almost all of the 2006 and 2007 seasons with injuries (surprise, surprise). The right-hander has looked good this season, but he’s also turning 26 in September. He has walk rate of 2.76 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.65 K/9. At best, he profiles as a middle reliever in the Majors.