Archive for Dellin Betances

The New York Yankees aren’t completely out of the 2016 postseason race, but they’re also not trending up. The team has done little this season to make anyone think they’re playoff-bound or anything more than a .500 team. Masahiro Tanaka has been good and CC Sabathia is having a nice bounce-back season, but Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino and Ivan Nova haven’t been able to keep the ball in the park, giving up 52 homers in 274.1 innings. On offense, the only above-average hitter is a 39-year-old Carlos Beltran, and he’s having trouble staying on the field. The strength of the team is an historically great bullpen, and if the team is willing to give up on this season, they could get quite a return over the next month by dealing Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and maybe even Dellin Betances.

The Yankees are currently 37-39 with a negative-34 run differential*. They’re nine games back in the division and six games out of the last wild-card spot, needing to pass six teams to get there. Our projections have them going 44-42 the rest of the way, thereby ending the year at exactly .500. BaseRuns says the Yankees have played like a team that should be 33-43. While the team’s peripheral pitching stats suggest the team has outperformed their results a little bit (4.43 ERA and 4.00 FIP), we’re still talking about a team that might be .500 if things had worked out better, not a team that looks like a contender. The team’s best playoff odds are likely behind them and the team has a roughly 6% chance at the postseason right now.

*Numbers before play on Wednesday.

So in all likelihood, the team should be sellers. That said, a team of veterans with long-term contracts doesn’t generally make for the most appealing trade partner. If he’s still healthy, Carlos Beltran should be in demand, and it’s possible that Nathan Eovaldi might bring something back, but the strength of the Yankees has been the bullpen, and if they’re going to sell, that’s where they’ll get the greatest return.

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I don’t have to be talked into writing posts about Dellin Betances. If I just supplied 10 consecutive GIFs of his fastball followed by his breaking ball, we’d probably all walk away happy (don’t worry, there will be plenty of GIFs). It’s special when a pitcher comes along and dominates major league hitters with just two pitches. It’s something to be celebrated. Yes, Betances has had a tough spring so far compared to his 2014 performance (a four inning sample size will do that), but there’s no denying the leap he took last year in regard to control that elevated his game to an elite level.

Our 2015 projections have him regressing a bit in terms of that control, but that’s bound to happen when a player shows such vast improvement in one year over past chronic issues. However, this isn’t an article discussing his projections for this coming year, though they are stellar. Today, we’re going to go over Betances’ repertoire, then try to find contemporary comparisons for one of his pitches. That’s hard to do given the quality of the offerings he has and the numbers he puts up, but we’re going to try anyway. Why are Betances’ two pitches so successful, and who has a curveball that moves like his? Let’s find out.

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Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Brett Gardner, OF
Gardner wasn’t a star during his rookie season in New York but he showed that he can – at the very least – be a useful fourth outfielder on a good team. The 26-year-old outfielder hit .270/.345/.379 with a .109 ISO in 248 at-bats. Gardner was a force on the base paths and stole 26 bases in 31 attempts. Overall, he posted a 2.1 WAR on the year and the majority of his value came from his defensive prowess (15.4 UZR/150 in center field).

The Riser: D.J. Mitchell, RHP
A 10th round draft pick out of Clemson University in ’08, Mitchell did not make his pro debut until ’09. The right-hander began the year in low-A ball and posted a 1.85 FIP in six starts. He then moved up to high-A where he allowed 93 hits in 103.1 innings of work. Mitchell showed good control with a walk rate of 3.31 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was solid at 7.23 K/9. He allowed just two home runs all year. His repertoire includes an 88-92 mph fastball, curveball and change-up. Right-handed batters hit just .197 against Mitchell, while left-handers hit .290.

The Tumbler: Dellin Betances, RHP
Betances’ numbers were OK in ’09 (3.76 FIP), but he gets tagged with the “tumbler” status because he was yet again unable to stay healthy for a full season. The right-hander made 24 starts in ’08, but he struggled with injuries in both ’07 and ’09, making just 11 appearances this past year. The time off could certainly be affecting his control and he posted a walk rate of 5.48 BB/9. Throughout all the injury woes, Betances has done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park (0.41 HR/9 in ’09).

The ’10 Sleeper: Brett Marshall, RHP
Drafted in ’08 along with Mitchell, the pair is looking to make New Yorkers forget about Gerrit Cole. Marshall, 19, had a bit of a rough year in 2009 with a 5.56 ERA and 98 hits allowed in 87.1 innings, but his FIP was just 4.45 and he showed OK control (3.81 BB/9) given his age and experience level. His fastball velocity ranges from 89-94 mph and he also has three other pitches that he dabbles with: slider, curveball, and change-up. Look for the right-hander to take another step forward in ’10.

Bonus: Austin Romine, C
During the ’08 series, the Yankees catching prospect was highlighted as a potential breakout candidate for ’09, Romine did just that. I won’t go into too much detail because he’s going to show up on the Top 10 list for the organization. Romine has a very good chance of being the Yankees’ starting catcher of the future… if Jorge Posada’s age ever catches up to him. (And yes, I am assuming Jesus Montero will move to 1B or DH).

Money may not buy happiness, but it does allow you the flexibility to take some risks. The New York Yankees have taken a few gambles in recent years during the annual amateur draft. The most-publicized risk was drafting North Carolina State right-hander Andrew Brackman (and paying him $3.35 million), who needed Tommy John surgery before he would even throw one professional pitch.

Another move one year earlier, though, that flew under the radar was drafting college reliever Mark Melancon out of the University of Arizona. Melancon was widely considered the best – and most advanced – college reliever in the draft. But he was suffering from a strained elbow ligament, and whispers of Tommy John surgery persisted.

Melancon fell out of the first round of the draft and was snapped up by the Yankees with the 284th selection in the ninth round. The Yankees gave him third round money ($600,000) and sent him to the New York Penn League. Melancon had not pitched since April due to the elbow injury and he lasted just 6.2 innings in pro ball before being shut down to go under the knife.

The 2007 season was a year of rehab for the right-hander but he came back strong in 2008. Melancon began the season in High-A ball and allowed 26 hits and six walks in 25.1 innings of work. He also struck out 20. Melancon was then promoted to Double-A where he worked 49.2 innings and allowed 32 hits and 12 walks. He also struck out 47 and induced two groundball outs for every flyball out. Melancon then finished out the regular season in Triple-A. He allowed just 11 hits and four walks in 20 innings. He struck out 22 batters.

Overall, in his first season back from surgery, Melancon was 8-1 with a 2.27 ERA in 95 innings. He allowed 69 hits and just 22 walks, which is impressive considering command is supposed to be the last thing that returns after Tommy John surgery. It’s clear Melancon is close to being a large part of the future of the Yankees’ bullpen.

*The 2006 draft was a huge help to the Yankees’ pitching depth, as the organization also scooped up Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Zach McAllister, George Kontos, Dellin Betances and Daniel McCutchen.