Archive for Derek Lowe

Derek Lowe hasn’t lived up to his four-year, $60 million contract so far, but his steady contributions have been valuable to a deep Braves rotation.

Lowe is one of the more predictably effective pitchers. His walk and strikeout rates tend to hover around the league average, while he doesn’t allow many home runs and induces grounders at a phenomenal rate. From 2007 through this season, Lowe’s 60% groundball rate ranks second in the majors to teammate Tim Hudson’s 61.5%.

Despite being 38 years old and having about $21 million remaining on his contract through 2012, Lowe is reportedly on a couple of contending teams’ radars. The idea of Atlanta trading Lowe while itself being a legitimate playoff contender is interesting. Rare are the times when arguably the best starting pitcher available comes from a team thick in the playoff hunt. But for a team deep with starting pitching, a potential deal also hits on the notion of trading from depth and maximizing returns to fix deficiencies elsewhere.

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Tim Hudson made his long awaited return from Tommy John surgery late Monday night. While he showed some rust, he performed OK over all — allowing two earned runs over 5.1 innings with 6 hits allowed and three walks, while striking out five.

Here’s his movement graph. Pitch F/x apparently forgot the scouting report on Huddy, so rather than then taking the time to manually reclassify his pitches, I just broke them down by velocity.

Still a very nice sinker, splitter, cutter and curve for Hudson. He averaged about 89 MPH with his fastball and hit up to 92, so the early returns are encouraging. Thank goodness for Dr. Jobe’s miraculous invention. But now what do the Braves do with their rotation? With Hudson’s return, the Braves now have six good starting pitchers in their rotation, an embarrassment of riches. Something has to give.

Javier Vazquez 181.1 IP – 3.18 ERA – 2.83 FIP – 48.4 RAR – 5.4 WAR
Jair Jurrjens 171 IP – 2.89 ERA – 3.75 FIP – 29.3 RAR – 3.1 WAR
Derek Lowe 164.1 IP – 4.38 ERA – 3.73 FIP – 28.6 RAR – 3 WAR
Thomas Hanson 89.2 IP – 3.15 ERA – 3.98 FIP – 13.1 RAR – 1.4 WAR
Kenshin Kawakami 142.2 IP – 3.97 ERA – 4.30 FIP – 16.3 RAR – 1.7 WAR

The odd man out is reportedly Kenshin Kawakami, who was signed as a free agent from Japan over the winter and has proven to be about what the Braves had hoped: a little better than league average. Teams would be blessed to have him as their 4th starter, he’s now the Braves’ 6th starter, making him the best swing-man in the biz.

So what do the Braves do with this wonderful problem that they have in the offseason? I know the saying goes that you never have too much pitching, but Hudson has a $12M option for next season. While that’s somewhat tempting given the fact that Huddy may now be as good as new, if the Braves decide to pick it up, that would mean they would be allocating $45M to four pitchers in their rotation. Lowe is guaranteed $15M next year. Vasquez, $11.5M. Kawakami, around $7M. With the presence of two terrific cost-controlled options of Thomas Hanson and Jair Jurrjens and the Braves in desperate need of some offense, Hudson is probably headed for free agency this year. Millions of dollars are on the line for Hudson, with just a few starts remaining.

Players classified with the Type A tag are generally the big boys, the cream of the crop. These players are all amongst the top of their respective positions and tend to command larger and more lucrative contracts. The team signing a Type A free agent loses a draft pick, depending on its slot in the draft, which goes to the team losing the newly-signed player. Yesterday, we took a look at the three remaining Type A relief pitchers on the market. Naturally, the next step is to look at the available Type A starting pitchers.

CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett signed with the Yankees, removing them from this post. Both project nicely though Burnett has had an unhealthy injury history. With both of these pitchers off the market, just four Type A starting pitchers remain free agents: Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, Andy Pettitte, and Ben Sheets.

Lowe has been discussed here time and time again. He will be 36 years old halfway through the 2009 season but has been the most durable and consistent of this bunch. The Mets have a 3-yr/$36 mil offer on the table that he and agent Scott Boras all but scoffed at. Lowe is seeking closer to $16 mil/yr which may be unrealistic given the current market heavily favoring the buyers. With a projection calling for a 3.67 FIP in 185 innings, Lowe would be worth +3.5 wins in 2009.

Assuming a dropoff of -0.6 wins each season, then Lowe would be worth near +8.7 wins over the life of a 3-yr deal. If the current dollars per win rate is $4.8 mil/win, and 10% inflation occurs over the next few seasons, then Lowe would be worth +3.5 wins at $16.8 mil in 2009; +2.9 wins at $15.4 mil in 2010; and +2.3 wins at $13.4 mil in 2011. All told, that is $45.5 mil, and he is seeking somewhere closer to a 3-yr/$48 mil deal. As was mentioned in earlier posts, once negotiations are ended, I fully expect Lowe to sign for about 3-yr/$45 mil, which would properly value his projected contributions.

Andy Pettitte has a similar projection to that of Lowe’s, calling for a 3.75 FIP in 187 innings. Pettitte recently rejected the 1-yr/$10 mil offer from the Yankees, as he does not want to receive a salary lower than the $16 mil he made in 2008. Perhaps the Yanks will up their offer but Pettitte has flirted with retirement before, and it would not be terribly shocking to see him call it quits if he cannot receive the “right” offer.

Anyways, a 3.75 FIP in 187 innings would place him around +3.3 wins. Properly valuing his contributions would result in a 1-yr/$15.8 mil deal. Basically, Pettitte deserves the same salary relative to his projected production. Given the Yankees payroll and the fact that he would be a significant upgrade over someone like Ian Kennedy, it just makes sense to sign him to this deal. Will it happen, though? Who knows. Probably not.

Oliver Perez seems to be the odd man out of this group, not just because he is the only pitcher of the four under 30 years old, but also because he projects to be worth under three wins. Using FIP, Perez looks like a 4.60 pitcher in 180 innings. This would deem him +1.6 wins. Even if we amend the FIP to be closer to his projected ERA of 4.30, he is merely average, at +2.1 wins. Perez is not anywhere in the vicinity of Sandy Koufax, as Scott Boras has claimed, but he does have value. A 3-yr/$28 mil deal would make sense for Ollie, though I can see that deal upping itself to 3-yr/$36 mil when Lowe inevitably signs his 3-yr/$45 mil contract.

Lastly, that leaves Ben Sheets, arguably the most talented of the group albeit the most oft-injured. At 30 years old, Sheets is still relatively young, but he has proven to be very brittle. When healthy, he is a dominant force, but the caveat beginning this sentence should speak volumes towards his durability. In any regard, his projection calls for a 3.60 FIP in 180 innings, placing him around +3.4 wins. While Pettitte and Lowe are durable enough to garner 3-yr deals and Perez is young enough to merit a similarly lengthed deal, a more responsibly GM would offer Sheets a 2-yr deal with options that automatically vest due to playing time.

I could see a team like the Rangers signing him to a 2-yr/$28 mil deal with a third and even fourth year option. Again, he might be the most talented, but his resume does not necessarily make decision makers eager to dish out large sums of money over extended periods of time. Later on, we will look at the Type A free agent hitters available.

Omar Minaya made one of the first big offseason splashes when he signed Francisco Rodriguez to a 3-yr deal. K-Rod may be showing signs of decline, but with Billy Wagner on the shelf for most, if not all, of the season, the new single-season saves recordholder is a definite improvement over the likes of Luis Ayala and Aaron Heilman. Minaya then sent the aforementioned Heilman to the Mariners in a three team traded that netted the Mets two solid relievers: Sean Green and J.J. Putz.

His focus to date has been spent on the bullpen, which makes sense, given their struggles last season. Their starting rotation still has a spot or two to fill, though, and several players have been linked to the team.

Johan Santana, John Maine, and Mike Pelfrey will all be returning. After these three, several Mets bloggers believe that Jonathan Niese will win the final rotation spot. If not Niese, the Mets still have options in the forms of Brandon Knight and Nelson Figueroa. With 140 innings out of Niese, the current fearsome foursome may look like this next season:

Johan Santana     3.45 FIP     220 IP     +4.5 WAR
John Maine        4.35 FIP     180 IP     +2.1 WAR
Mike Pelfrey      4.08 FIP     185 IP     +2.8 WAR
Jonathan Niese    4.55 FIP     140 IP     +1.4 WAR

Before even adding the final piece to the puzzle that is their starting rotation, these four project to +10.8 wins. The four pitchers heavily linked to the Mets are: Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, Randy Wolf, and Tim Redding. Here are the projections for these four:

Derek Lowe       3.67 FIP     185 IP     +3.7 WAR
Randy Wolf       4.35 FIP     175 IP     +2.0 WAR
Oliver Perez     4.60 FIP     180 IP     +1.7 WAR
Tim Redding      4.77 FIP     159 IP     +1.3 WAR

With Lowe added to the mix, which may come to fruition very soon, the Mets rotation jumps from +10.8 wins to +14.5 wins. If you recall the post yesterday on the Giants’ chances of contending, their solid starting rotation projects to +15.4 wins. Adding Lowe places the Mets right in the thick of perhaps sporting the best rotation in the senior circuit.

Adding Wolf bumps them up to a respectable +12.8 wins; Perez shifts the rotation from +10.8 to +12.5; and Redding adds +1.3 wins to put the starters at +12.1 wins. If they were to sign Lowe and then resign Perez, Niese theoretically gets bumped and the rotation would project to +14.8 wins.

Essentially, if Niese can manage 140 innings with a 4.55 FIP, his value will be incredibly similar to that of Oliver Perez. Of course, nobody knows if Niese can produce these numbers, but adding Lowe while keeping him in the mix produces +14.5 wins; spending plenty of money on Perez, while signing Lowe, adds a mere +0.3 wins. Given that Perez will likely command a salary upwards of 20 times that of Niese, it makes more sense to give the kid a shot.

Regardless, signing Lowe to an average annual value of $15-16 mil makes sense. If he declines by a 0.7 wins each year, given his age, then he goes from +3.7 to +3.0 to +2.3 wins. If we assume a conservative 7.5% inflation rate, his fair market values in these years would be $18.5 mil, $16.5 mil, and $13.8 mil, respectively. Added together, that equates to 3-yrs/$49 mil. The contract reportedly on the table is for 3-yrs/$45-$48 mil.

The next question is: How does this rotation compare to the Phillies? The defending champs will bring back Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton. The fifth spot will be up for grabs between J.A. Happ, Kyle Kendrick, Carlos Carrasco, Chan Ho Park, and Adam Eaton. My pick is Happ to win that contest, which would peg their rotation to be worth +11.8 wins.

If these projections hold true, and Niese can manage the aforementioned workload/production, then the Mets could realistically sign Redding and still have an equal rotation to the Phillies. Bringing aboard Perez and Wolf elevates them. Signing Lowe gives the Mets approximately a +2.5 win advantage in this department.

Minaya has done a good job in strengthening the ‘pen with the additions of K-Rod, Putz, and Green. Bringing Lowe to The Big Apple will further strengthen their rotation and, in my eyes, make them the team to beat in the NL East next season. It hurts me to say that, as a Phillies fan, but it will sure feel that way if Lowe signs.

Earlier today, we took a look at the potential super-rotation the New York Yankees may feature next year. They already signed CC Sabathia to a monster deal and are considered the front-runners for both A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe. With Mike Mussina retiring, and Andy Pettitte’s uncertainty, the aforementioned three would join forces with Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain to improve the rotation by approximately six full wins above replacement.

Brian Cashman left the Winter Meetings today to fly to Texas, in order to make a final offer to Andy Pettitte. The one-year offer is believed to be worth $10 mil, a paycut from Pettitte’s $16 mil salary in 2008. While Andy has not discussed wanting more than his fee last season, he has made it clear that he does not want to take a paycut. Cashman said that the offer for Pettitte would be to claim the final spot in the starting rotation. Assuming that the decision here is between Lowe and Pettitte, let’s weigh the pros and cons.

First off, what are their true talent level projections for 2009? Marcel forecasts Lowe to produce a 3.67 FIP in 185 IP. I would bump that up to around 3.80 given that he is going from the NL to the AL, so we can call him a 3.80 FIP pitcher in 185 IP. Compared to the replacement level, with a slight reward for pitching all those innings himself, and not allowing a poor reliever to enter, those numbers translate to +35 runs, +3.5 WAR.

Pettitte is projected to log 182 innings, with a 3.98 FIP. To make the comparison a bit easier, let’s bump him up to 185 IP, the same figure as Lowe, with a 4.00 FIP. Factoring in the same replacement level and slight reward, Pettitte in 2009 comes out to +31 runs, +3.1 WAR.

Therefore, Lowe is worth a bit under a half-win better than Pettitte based on their true talent levels. The fair market value for each, assuming $4.8 mil/win, would be $16.8 mil for Lowe and $14.9 mil for Pettitte. Replacing Lowe with Pettitte in the super-rotation will cost them 0.4 wins, meaning they would be worth +19.4 wins as opposed to +13.8 in 2008. This is still a substantial improvement, meaning the differences between Pettitte and Lowe are not that significant.

In terms of salary, however, it isn’t likely that either will earn their fair market value. As I mentioned earlier, Pettitte is being offered a take-it-or-leave-it, 1-yr/$10 mil deal. With a 10% discount rate factored in for the security of a long-term deal, Lowe would sign for 3-yrs/45 mil, or 4-yrs/60 mil. Therefore, that extra half-win of Lowe’s value would cost around $5 mil.

As commenter Steve Sanders pointed out, though, signing Pettitte instead of Lowe would give Cashman greater flexibility in the future. Pettitte would sign for a 1-yr deal, be an above average pitcher less than a half of a win worse than Lowe, and after this season, come off the books, freeing up more money to be spent elsewhere. In the past, Cashman would sign a plethora of players to multi-year deals, hamstringing himself in the process.

With Lowe, if we assume a dropoff of 0.35 wins per year, over the course of a 3-yr deal, he would go from 3.50 to 3.15 in 2010, to 2.80 in 2011. Perhaps the contention of those fans in favor of bringing back Pettitte for the 1-yr deal as opposed to signing Lowe is that they will get similar value in 2009, and be able to avoid paying $15 mil to a 2.80 win player in 2011, when some of their prospects may be ready for full-time rotation duty.

What say you, Yanks fans? Do you want Pettitte back for one year, or Lowe for a few years?