Archive for Diamondbacks

When scouting, the first instinct is to comp. You fight the urge, knowing every player is an individual, but the desire to quantify the unknown inevitably creeps into your thoughts. Who has a similar body type? A similar swing? Approach? Range and athleticism? Background? Instinctively, you formulate a first impression by answering one question: Who does he remind me of?

Then there are prospects like Stryker Trahan. The attributes packed into his dense 5-foot-10 frame are anything but ordinary:

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The Arizona Diamondbacks had a disappointing 2012 season and the front office has identified key areas in which the team must improve. The outfield isn’t one of these areas, as the Diamondbacks now boast five players who could all stake a claim for a starting role, whether in Arizona or on another team.

They could conceivably make things work if everyone was retained, but that seems like a sub-optimal use of valuable resources. With platoons — both traditional and non-traditional — and injury risk, carrying four or five competent outfielders is often necessary. However, trading one or two of these players could solve issues elsewhere on the diamond. The team would still boast a solid outfield while improving in other key areas. But determining who to trade isn’t as straightforward, as non-performance factors must be taken into consideration.

The Diamondbacks currently have Justin Upton, Chris Young, Adam Eaton, Jason Kubel and Gerardo Parra under contract. Upton is the most talented of the group as well as the most expensive. Eaton is a top prospect under team control that played well in a small sample of September plate appearances. Kubel is a strong hitter who can’t run or field who is signed to a team-friendly contract. Parra is an average hitter under team control with excellent fielding marks. Young is a terrific defensive centerfielder capable of 20/20 production under team-friendly contractual terms.

The team is likely to retain Upton and play him in right field. The team also seems intent on playing Eaton in center field, which means that Young seems like the odd man out. He could shift to left field, but part of what makes him valuable would get eliminated in the process. Given his age, fielding skills, offensive pop and contract status, as well as the free agent market developing at the position, Young would instantly become a very attractive trade target if he were made available. Dealing him makes the most sense for the Diamondbacks, as he has become expendable with Eaton’s presence on the roster, and could extract the most value in return.

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Every year it happens in spring training: A previously unknown (by the general fan population and mainstream media) minor league player posts dazzling statistics in spring training and everyone starts singing the praises of said player.

This year it happens to be catcher Yan Gomes, 24, in the Toronto Blue Jays’ spring camp. After Tuesday’s game he was hitting .474 with a slugging percentage of .842 in 19 at-bats. A very impressive performance but this is also a very small-sample size. Check out the Twitter love for Gomes as fans interact with Toronto sports radio personality Mike Wilner.

You’re kidding, right? @CharliePride78: @julianmktr The Jays would be STUPID if they don’t at least put Gomes on roster, as bench plyr!!!

Sample size, please. @CharliePride78: @Wilnerness590 @julianmktr The guy can play 3-4 different positions, he seems 2 be a gr8 hitter!!!

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The Diamondbacks traded Kelly Johnson to the Blue Jays on Tuesday, getting Aaron Hill and John McDonald in return. Arizona’s motives for the trade are questionable, as the deal could actually hurt their playoff odds.

Eno Sarris covered the deal from the Jays point of view, noting that free-agent-to-be Johnson will likely be used to extract compensatory draft picks this offseason. Johnson is mere percentage points from attaining Type A status — and prior to the trade, he was the highest-ranked non-Type A middle infielder. The Jays employed this tactic last season when it traded for Miguel Olivo on the day before free agency started and allowed him to walk. The Jays again are shrewdly exploiting the compensation system.

Add to that the idea that Johnson is a better player than Hill and the deal makes plenty of sense for Toronto. But does it make any sense for the Diamondbacks, who are in the thick of a divisional race?

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Last week, Dave previewed the important Dodgers-Diamondbacks series by discussing the three great pitching matchups on tap. Dan Haren vs. Derek Lowe, Brandon Webb vs. Chad Billingsley, and Randy Johnson vs. Clayton Kershaw. Well, the Big Unit was scratched from yesterday’s start, paving the way for rookie Max Scherzer to step in. Scherzer, the 24-yr old flamethrowing prospect, had success earlier in the season, however, the return of Doug Davis relegated him to the bullpen, before he was eventually sent back to AAA when the Snakes needed a more durable reliever.

Johnson used to be a flamethrower, as well, arguably staking claim as the best left-handed power pitcher of all time, but it seems the torch of heat may be passing to Scherzer. Now, I’m not saying Max is a hall of famer or anything along those lines, but he definitely deserves a spot in this Diamondbacks rotation. Personal affinities aside—Max and I speak routinely through e-mail as he is very into sabermetrics—his mere 13 appearances this year, 4 of which were starts, have produced a WPA/LI of 0.44. Mark Buehrle’s is 0.50, as is John Lannan’s. Joe Blanton, the supposed answer to the Phillies rotation troubles, has been worth just 0.37 wins above an average pitcher.

In 39 innings this season, he has surrendered just 32 hits, only two of which are home runs. His controllable skills only get better, as his 45 strikeouts and 15 walks translate to a 10.38 K/9 and a 3.00 K/BB ratio. Of balls put in play, an exorbitant 31.2% have been line drives, which means his .316 BABIP is much lower perhaps than what should be expected, but this will not persist and can be expected to even out at some point.

Looking at his Pitch F/X data, he throws his 94.4 mph fastball 72.3% of the time, with 7.01 horizontal inches of movement and 8.76 vertical inches. His slider is thrown 15% of the time, with the changeup accounting for most of the leftover. His changeup looks particularly effective, too, as it comes in almost a full 10 mph slower, at 84.8 mph. Additionally, he has essentially sustained the horizontal movement from his fastball, but lessened the vertical movement, meaning it will not “rise” as much as his heater. Whether in the rotation or temporarily working out of the bullpen, Scherzer needs to be in the big leagues. If he has the capability to miss bats like he does at the major league level, being in AAA serves no purpose.

To read my interview with Max, in which he explains his relationship with sabermetrics and analysis, and how it pertains to him as a pitcher, click here.

Between a few errands yesterday, I happened to catch one of those ESPN baseball analysis segments in which a series of supposedly interesting questions are analyzed from all angles until the viewer walks away with an extreme understanding of the subject. Or maybe the opposite. I can’t remember. Anyways, the analyst was Chris Singleton, whom I actually feel has the best presence on-screen and is the smoothest of the bunch, generally offering good insights. Something he mentioned on this particular segment, however, made me cringe.

They were showing a highlight of the DBacks-Rockies game in which Adam Dunn grounded out to end the game in a clutch spot. Singleton started by mentioning how tough of a plate appearance it was with so much at stake and Brian Fuentes—who hides the ball very well—on the mound. So far so good. But when Chris got into his overall evaluation of Dunn, despite presenting the information in a smooth manner, it came off as nothing more than generic announcer-talk that exhibited next to no knowledge of what he was discussing.

To paraphrase, he essentially said that while Dunn will hit homers he will also strike out quite a bit… and because of the strikeouts he’ll post low on base and slugging percentages.

What!? Seriously?

So, does that mean that Hanley Ramirez is posting low on base and slugging percentages? As Dave showed a couple of days ago, these players have virtually identical OBP and SLG numbers over the last two years. Why would Singleton say this? If he meant to say that, because Dunn strikes out so much it prevents him from getting more extra base hits and more opportunities at reaching base, then it would make at least some sense… except that would mean Dunn would be a completely different player. Basically, there really is no justifiable reason to make this comment other than having no idea what you are talking about.

His OBP is virtually the same as Chase Utley, who by all accounts gets on base at a very decent clip. His SLG is higher than David Wright’s and virtually the same as the aforementioned Ramirez as well as Prince Fielder. In fact, Dunn and Fielder have very similar OBP and SLG numbers despite Prince’s forty point advantage in batting average. If Dunn was striking out a ton and producing a .230/.320/.430 slash line I might be able to understand Singleton’s point of view, but his actual line is .234/.373/.525.

His OBP and SLG may be lower than his counts last year or a few years ago, but they are not low.

We’ve discussed here as well as at Statistically Speaking with regards to Pedro Martinez’s pitching in 1999-2000 as perhaps the best we have ever seen, but another peak for a different pitcher in a similar span should not be overlooked. Though the numbers compiled in this peak may not be as impressive in the grand scheme of things they point to a domination of hitters. I’m speaking of Randy Johnson and his performance from 1999-2002.

For starters, here are some of his peripheral numbers in each of these seasons:

1999: 35 GS, 271.2 IP, 207 H, 75 ER, 70 BB, 364 K, 1.02 WHIP, 2.48 ERA, 2.75 FIP
2000: 35 GS, 248.2 IP, 202 H, 73 ER, 76 BB, 347 K, 1.12 WHIP, 2.64 ERA, 2.53 FIP
2001: 34 GS, 249.2 IP, 181 H, 69 ER, 71 BB, 372 K, 1.01 WHIP, 2.49 ERA, 2.12 FIP
2002: 35 GS, 260.0 IP, 197 H, 67 ER, 71 BB, 334 K, 1.03 WHIP, 2.32 ERA, 2.66 FIP

Let those babies sink in. Those are four absolutely ridiculous seasons. His 2000 campaign “looks” worse than the other three seasons yet his FIP of 2.53 comes in as the second lowest. In 1999 he led the NL in ERA, CG, IP, and Strikeouts. In fact, his 364 K outranked everyone by a very wide margin; second place was Kevin Brown and his measly-in-comparison 221 punchouts. He also finished second in WHIP by two-hundredths of a point.

The following season he again ranked in the top three in just about every category, finishing first in CG and K (347 to Chan Ho Park’s 217); he also finished 2nd in ERA and 3rd in IP and WHIP. In 2001, he led the league in ERA, Strikeouts, and WHIP while finishing 2nd in IP to teammate Curt Schilling. And in 2002, he led in ERA, CG, IP, and Strikeouts while finishing 3rd in WHIP. Those are just the peripheral numbers.

In terms of Win Probability, here are his WPA/LI and REW numbers, as well as their ranks in each of these seasons:

1999: 5.04 WPA/LI (1st), 5.93 REW (1st)
2000: 4.41 WPA/LI (2nd), 4.82 REW (1st)
2001: 5.84 WPA/LI (1st), 6.25 REW (1st)
2002: 4.43 WPA/LI (2nd), 5.91 REW (1st)

We all know RJ as a strikeout machine, and his K/9 counts in these four seasons did not disappoint. 12.06 in ’99, 12.56 in ’00, 13.41 in ’01, and 11.56 in ’02. He of course led the league in each of these seasons. Equally impressive are his K/BB ratios; it isn’t as if he struck out a ton of batters but walked many as well. No, Johnson’s lowest K/BB in this span was 4.57 in 2000. In 1999 he clocked in at 5.20; a 5.24 in 2001, and a 4.70 in 2002. These ratios placed him either second or third in each season.

All told, Johnson led the league or finished no lower than third in all of these categories for four straight seasons. He is without a doubt a Hall of Fame pitcher and the kind of guy whose starts used to be considered “events.” While it usually takes a few years after a player retires to detach ourselves from the most recent performance—for instance, it’s tough to really remember every facet of Johnson’s peak when we see his most recent seasons on the Yankees and again DBacks—let’s not forget that the man who induced a Lou Collins flyout in the film Little Big League had arguably the second best peak in baseball history.

On May 25th, the San Francisco Giants stood at 20-31, a full 10.5 games behind the first place Diamondbacks. Brandon Webb and his DBacks were cruising and the division was theirs for the taking. The Dodgers had been slumping but appeared to be the only real threat to the Snakes. Arizona was 30-20; LA sat just 3.5 games back at 26-23; and the Rockies, Giants, and Padres respectively had played to the melancholy tunes of 20-30, 20-31, and 19-33.

Since that fateful day the Boche Bunch has gone 19-23, “improving” to 39-54. While a stretch like that may appear to have put the Giants further out of the playoff race they have actually gained three and a half games on Arizona. Yes, since May 25, the best team in the NL West has been the 19-23 Giants. The others? Well, the Padres have been second best, going 18-23 for a .439 winning percentage. After them comes a two-way tie between the Dodgers and Rockies, who have both gone 19-25. The worst team in this stretch is the Diamondbacks, at a measly 16-27.

With the DBacks starting off ten games above .500 and then proceeding to go eleven games below they now lead the division with a 46-47 record. Something remarkable to note is that, even though the non-Dodgers teams have played at a better clip in this span, while the DBacks played significantly worse, Arizona maintained their lead in the division. The Dodgers are currently one game back; the Giants and Rockies are seven and seven and a half back; and even the Padres are within ten games reach.

Okay, the title is a bit facetious given how poorly each team has played recently, but despite all five currently posting below .500 records, rewind back to the 1994 strike-shortened season and take a look at the AL West standings. At the time of the strike, the Rangers held a slim one game lead despite just a 52-62 record. The Athletics were 51-63, Mariners at 49-63, and the Angels at 47-68. Yes, this division has been bad so far, but not on the same embarrassing level as the 1994 AL West. I doubt it will stay like this for the remainder of the season but right now this division really does seem to be up for grabs. I’ve seen analysts say and write that it would just take a nice 5-8 game winning streak from a team to put the division away or make it a legitimate race; the way these teams are currently playing, “just” being able to do anything that positive seems completely out of character.

By acquiring Dan Haren the Diamondbacks front office made it clear that this team could legitimately contend for a world series title as soon as this year. Placing a clear cut AL ace in Haren alongside one of the game’s best and most consistent in Brandon Webb would provide quite the formidable 1-2 punch.

Almost two months into the season, Webb and Haren have been more than a 1-2 punch; they have been a 1-1A punch, with Webb pitching out of this world and Haren performing like a true ace. In fact, some of their stats are pretty similar too. Take a look.

Brandon Webb
9-0, 2.56 ERA, 2.70 FIP, 0.99 WHIP, 2.88 K/BB
9 GS, 63.1 IP, 46 H, 17 BB, 49 K
70.3% LOB, .253 BABIP, .293 xBABIP
17.3/65.4/17.3 LD/GB/FB (Career: 18.2/64.3/17.5)

Dan Haren
5-2, 3.14 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 0.98 WHIP, 4.50 K/BB
9 GS, 57.1 IP, 46 H, 10 BB, 45 K
68.0% LOB, .260 BABIP, .303 xBABIP
18.3/47.6/34.1 LD/GB/FB (Career: 19.5/45.0/35.5)

Both prevent runners from reaching base but are slightly below average in stranding them. They are also each about forty percentage points better in the BABIP department than their line drive rate would suggest. Webb and Haren have also changed their pitch selection and frequency. Webb is throwing 3% less fastballs and 3% less curveballs; the difference is made up by a 6% increase in changeup usage. Haren, on the other hand has replaced 4% of his splitters/changeups with fastballs.

One glaring difference between the two can be found in their leverage splits. Here are Webb’s:

High: 48 PA, .100/.208/.175, 10 K
Med: 132 PA, .192/.244/.233, 22 K
Low: 75 PA, .264/.293/.347, 17 K

And Haren’s:

High: 31 PA, .308/.367/.462, 6 K
Med: 90 PA, .253/.303/.386, 18 K
Low: 105 PA, .168/.184/.248, 21 K

It seems Webb gets better as the importance level rises whereas Haren performs better as the importance level lessens. Give me Webb over Haren with one game to make or break a season, but give me Webb and Haren over other twosomes, at least right now, with two games on the line.

It’s no secret that Micah Owings is a great hitting pitcher, often causing analysts to refer to him as a hitter that happens to pitch rather than the aforementioned moniker. Reports even circulated prior to the season starting that Owings might get some playing time at first base due to the departure of Tony Clark. Last year, Owings produced one of the best hitting-seasons-for-a-pitcher of all time, thanks to a slash line of .333/.349/.683; he also hit eight doubles, one triple, and four home runs.

In the sixth inning of last night’s Diamondbacks-Astros game, Owings hit a pinch hit, two-run homer to tie the game. The Astros even made a pitching change prior to the at-bat in order to bring in righty Dave Borkowski and Brad Ausmus commented that Owings is the only pitcher over which he has ever discussed sequencing strategies. ESPN had a field day showing highlights and questioning whether or not Owings belongs in the lineup everyday, but the following video segment made me cringe:

They specially selected the ridiculously small sample size of 75 plate appearances in order to further a point that did not necessarily need to be made. Everyone knows he is a tremendous hitter and this comparison did nothing but show a complete ignorance towards the usage of statistics. The hard part about criticizing the video is that the anchors actually used and explained OPS! Granted, OPS is not the end-all, be-all, but for a mainstream show such as Sportscenter to discuss a sabermetric statistic is a pretty big step. Unfortunately, they lost points with the small sample size comparison.

Earlier today on PTI, Michael Wilbon mentioned that putting Owings in the lineup should be done sparingly at first until a large enough sample could be gathered to determine his true ability. Suffice it to say, I was shocked: One ESPN show discussed OPS and another discussed how small sample sizes should not be used to make quick judgments. While discussing sabermetric statistics and explaining how small sample sizes fail to explain anything truly tangible are both important, which do you feel would be best served exploring deeper on mainstream analysis-driven shows?