Archive for Edwin Encarnacion

The title of this post serves is a warning, but not an absolute one. There’s a price at which just about any player becomes palatable. If Edwin Encarnacion were available to a team for just $1 this offseason, that team should sign him. For a number of reasons, Edwin Encarnacion will not be available for $1 this offseason. For a number of reasons, Edwin Encarnacion is going to earn much more than that. For a number of reasons, he’s likely to be overpaid for the services he’ll render.

Encarnacion, 33, just finished a season in which he hit 42 home runs and produced four wins above replacement. That matches very well with his last five seasons, during which he has averaged 39 homers and four wins above replacement. A standard decline from that level of production should make Encarnacion a very valuable player in this year’s free-agent class, but there are major warning signs.

In his piece on free-agent landmines, Dave Cameron wrote that Encarnacion was unlikely to be worth $100 million ($90 million in salary plus the value of the draft pick) unless he defies the aging process. How do we estimate Encarnacion’s worth? A couple ways, actually.

Let’s begin with a simple way — namely, by applying a standard aging curve to Encarnacion’s current 2017 projection. Encarnacion has been a steady four-win player for half a decade. If we were to see some decline, we might expect him to produce just a 3.5 WAR next season. Our current projections for Encarnacion estimate that he’ll record only a 2.3 WAR next season, however.

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The Astros released Bill Hall last week to make room for the returning Jason Bourgeois. The 31-year-old Hall had been awful this season for the Astros, producing 0.9 wins below replacement. His fielding has eroded in recent years, and his offense, aside for what appears to be a fluky uptick last season, has left much to be desired for almost five seasons. His wOBAs since 2006? Try .317, .297, .261, .342, .269.

Sure, there was some reason to think that the .342 might be more indicative of his offensive proclivities, but the signing was odd for a team like the Astros. To guarantee $3 million at the major league level and include an option for next season suggests that the team believed Hall had some upside. They still have Jeff Keppinger under control, but his injury opened up a spot. Since Hall isn’t a puts-butts-in-seats kind of guy, it probably would have made more sense to use some farmhand in the spot until Keppinger returned.

Where did his -0.9 WAR rank, you ask? Good question, I say, as the original theme of this post changed from why signing Hall made little sense for the Astros when a realization was made scanning the leaderboards. The default setting on our leaderboards filters only for batters that qualify for a batting title. Sorting the players by WAR from the bottom up, I expected to see Hall’s name toward the top of the list. It wasn’t there. The list went:

– Chone Figgins (-1.2)
– Aubrey Huff (-0.9)
– Miguel Tejada (-0.9)
– Dan Uggla (-0.8)
– Orlando Cabrera (-0.8)
– Hideki Matsui (-0.8)

Hall was nowhere to be found, even though his -0.9 was the same as Huff’s and Tejada’s mark. Hall has been so bad this season that he doesn’t even qualify for most leaderboards.

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Not afraid to make controversial moves (see Roy Halladay), the Blue Jays’ rookie General Manager Alex Anthopoulos designated struggling third baseman Edwin Encarnacion for assignment on Sunday.

The 27-year-old former Red – who was acquired last season in the Scott Rolen trade that also netted Toronto a pitching prospect by the name of Zach Stewart – was hitting just .200/.298/.467 in 141 at-bats in 2010. Encarnacion missed much of April due to injuries and never did get on track. He made some headlines in May, though, when he went on a homer binge with six of his nine hits in the month going over the fence.

Like much of the Toronto lineup, Encarnacion got into a bad habit of swinging for the home run in each at-bat, even if the situation warranted a different approach. Hopefully his time in the minors will remind him of the importance of hitting the ball hard but not trying to do too much. It’s possible – but highly unlikely – that the third baseman’s contract will be claimed on waivers. In reality, he and his $4.75 contact will make their way to triple-A Las Vegas. After the season, Encarnacion will be arbitration eligible with close to five years of Major League service under his belt. He is not expected back in Toronto for 2011.

This might actually be a good time for the cement-gloved Encarnacion – affectionately dubbed E5 by the home crowd – to be introduced to right field. A position switch could make him a more valuable commodity during the late-July trade deadline (at which time Toronto would have to eat most, if not all, Encarnacion’s contract to receive even a B- or C-level prospect in return). He’s by no means a lost cause; he is still young and has a career line of .257/.339/.449 and a .344 wOBA in 2,322 MLB at-bats. With a new position, he could see a real boost in his WAR – especially if he hits like he did between 2006-08.

In his place, the Jays recalled 27-year-old Jarrett Hoffpauir, who was acquired off waivers this past off-season from the Cardinals organization. Mostly a second baseman in the minors, he’s also seen some time at third base this season… with mixed results on defense. At the plate, though, Hoffpauir has taken full advantage of the potent hitting environment and he has a triple-A slash line of .328/.378/.532 in 235 at-bats. The power output is a side effect of his league, but Hoffpauir has always hit for a solid average and quite often walks more than he strikes out. His offensive menu is much more appetizing at second, but the homer-happy club can afford his lack of power at the traditionally pop-tastic hot corner.

The former sixth round draft pick out of Southern Mississippi (2004) deserves a prolonged shot in the Majors, as he only had a brief cup of coffee with the Cardinals in ’09. It was Hoffpauir whom I expected to see when bench player Mike McCoy was optioned to triple-A last week… only to find out the Jays replaced the far-more-versatile player with… Nick Green (career .288 wOBA). Current triple-A infielder Brad Emaus, recently promoted from double-A to triple-A, could be the club’s third baseman of the future. He’s not a big-bopper, either, and profiles as a Scott Spiezio-type infielder. Emaus, 24, is currently hitting .292/.402/.467 in 195 at-bats.

It remains to be seen what Manager Cito Gaston will do with Hoffpauir and exactly how much time he’ll see at third base. It’s possible that Gaston will favor John McDonald (career .265 wOBA) for his defense at third. It’s also possible that Jose Bautista will shift from right field to third base for the majority of the time with another recent addition, Dewayne Wise (.278 wOBA) receiving significant time in right field until Travis Snider returns after the All-Star Break. If that’s the plan, though, it would have made more sense to keep infielder-outfielder McCoy over Green.

Truth be told, I’ve given up trying to understand Gaston’s moves.

Man-crushes can die hard. Reds’ GM Walt Jocketty has swapped Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Roenicke and Zachary Stewart for Scott Rolen. This is the second time Jocketty has traded for Rolen, but now under very different circumstances.

The Reds playoff hopes are nil, and this isn’t the same Scott Rolen of old. Granted, he’s hitting much closer to the Rolen of old with a .320/.370/.476 line, but that’s largely inflated by his .347 BABIP. Even with some falling off, Rolen still is an above average hitter at his position. His defense is no longer Brooks Robinson-esque, but he’s still slick with the leather – his UZR/150 last season was 8.5, this season 8.

Rolen is due around $20 million, including the rest of this year and the next, and reportedly Toronto is going to foot a portion of the bill. For the Reds’ sake let’s hope it is a good piece of the contract. Rolen is a moderately safe bet to be worth 2.5-3 WAR next year, and has upside to be worth 3.5-4 if he can stay healthy. That’s a big if. In the process, the Reds give up cheap players.

Edwin Encarnacion is due to make $4.75 million next year. With the stick, he’s fine, with the leather, he’s terrible – he’s been a career -12 UZR per 150 and is -23 per 150 this season. He’s probably a 1.5 win player next year, making his contract pretty fair.

Josh Roenicke looks like a decent middle reliever who will be glad to get off the Louisville-Cincinnati shuttle. His fastball has some giddyup and he throws a solid cutter as well.

Zachary Stewart is the “get” of the trade. He has a 92-95 MPH fastball with good sink and a hard cutting 82-85 MPH slider. He’s quickly climbed the ladder, pitching at High-A, Double-A and now Triple-A this season, and has a cumulative 2.92 FIP in 92 innings pitched. He pitched mostly out of the bullpen last year but is showing some good promise as a starter. He’s a solid B grade pitcher.

Rolen doesn’t make the Reds a contender next year, and he certainly doesn’t make them one this year. He’s a good player, but I just can’t understand this from Cincy’s perspective. Toronto must be be ponying up a lot of cash. Even if they are, I still can’t quite wrap my head around this.