Archive for Free Agents

Our look at free agents by position continues with a trip to right field, where there are just six notable players hitting the market this off-season. To make matters even more interesting, four of the six players have player, club, or mutual options for 2009, meaning the pickings are pretty slim. Now, of course, somebody playing center- or leftfield could always move over to the right if the need presents itself, but the six players below spent the majority of their time in right field this past season:

Name                 Age       G            Slash   WPA/LI
Bobby Abreu           35     156   .296/.371/.471     1.97
Brian Giles           38     147   .306/.398/.456     2.52
Ken Griffey Jr.       39     143   .249/.353/.424    -0.01
Vladimir Guerrero     33     143   .303/.365/.521     1.83
Jason Michaels        33     123   .224/.292/.360    -0.94
Brad Wilkerson        32     104   .220/.308/.326    -1.01

Giles has a 9 mm club option with a 3 mm buyout. Griffey, a 16.5 mm option with a 4 mm buyout. Guerrero has a 15 mm option with a 3 mm buyout, and Michaels has a 2.6 mm option. This leaves Abreu and Wilkerson as the only two “pure” rightfielders hitting the market when the world series ends. Griffey may retire, but if not, he should be used as a DH somewhere. Giles will likely return to the Padres, and I would be somewhat surprised if Guerrero was not a Halo next season.

Abreu is still a productive offensive player at 35 years of age, but the signs are pointing in the wrong direction. His walk rate was lower this year than in the past, and despite an ISO rise to .176 thanks to a “jump” to 20 home runs, his defense is getting considerably worse. He may have won a gold glove a few years back, but you better believe it was undeserved. He may have a nice arm in rightfield, but he was a -24 in the field this year and there is no evidence that this will improve. Anything longer than a 2-yr deal with an option for year three would be a mistake. Abreu has had a very nice career, but it is almost at its end.

Giles only hit 12 home runs this season, but in many ways produced an offensive season we may expect from Abreu: he hit for average, added some power (40 doubles), and reached base a ton. Even at 38 years old, his offense was worth over two and a half wins above an average player. He has been durable for quite some time, and his defense was exemplary this past season. At +20 plays above an average rightfielder, Giles was the second best in the field, and extremely solid offensively. Bringing him back for another season at 9 mm would be a steal.

Guerrero’s 1.83 WPA/LI was his lowest since 1998, and his aging is pretty evident while watching the Angels play. He can still rake and knock the ball all over the place, but his power has diminished a bit in recent years, he has become a slower runner due to injuries, and his outfield range has taken a hit. Now, over the last three years he has been either average or slightly below average in rightfield, so he is not like Abreu out there, but an unhealthy Vlad may not be worth the 15 million dollars he would be owed if his option is exercised. Still, I cannot see the Angels buying him out and risking him sign elsewhere, but if his injuries cannot get under control he will continue to lose value, and do so quite quickly.

Griffey’s WPA/LI pegged him as about a league average hitter in 2008, and his -17 in rightfield says he was well below average defensively. His OPS was the lowest since his rookie season, and despite managing 143 games played, his value seems to be primarily dependent upon veteran leadership and the halo effect. Griffey does not really have much left to prove, so my suggestion would be to hang up the cleats. He is nowhere near worth the 16.5 million dollars on his option, so it may be very wise to buy him out for 4 million and let another team take a chance.

This year’s class of rightfield free agents is not all that interesting given that 2/3 have options, but I would predict the following:

a) Abreu re-signs with Yankees at 2 yrs with a 3rd year option
b) Giles has his option exercised and returns to Padres
c) Griffey is bought out and either retires or latches on a smaller 1-yr deal elsewhere
d) Guerrero returns to the Angels
e) Michaels returns to the Pirates
f) Wilkerson is signed midway through the season by a National League team

Thoughts?

Continuing our series of looking at the free agents to be, by position, we move from the backstop to the hot corner, checking out the third basemen who will be available this off-season. Eight third basemen of note are going to be free agents, which include three pairs from the Rangers, Brewers, and Dodgers, a productive when healthy player, and a player only in the major leagues for his ability to play each and every position with league average skills. Here are the eight:

Name                  Age        G            Slash        WPA/LI
Hank Blalock           28       65   .287/.338/.508          0.21
Willie Bloomquist      31       71   .279/.377/.285          0.32
Joe Crede              31       97   .248/.314/.460         -0.57
Ramon Vazquez          32      105   .290/.365/.430         -0.10
Russell Branyan        33       50   .250/.342/.583          1.21
Nomar Garciaparra      35       55   .264/.326/.466          0.26
Casey Blake            35      152   .274/.345/.463          0.89
Craig Counsell         38      110   .226/.355/.302         -0.29

Blalock has an option on his contract for 2009, which should be exercised given that, despite the small sample size, he looked more like the 2003-2004 version of himself than the 2005-07 version. His ISO, OPS, and BB/K all returned to their 2003-2004 ranges, back when he was an all star. He also hit 12 home runs in 258 at bats and was a league average defender. His -3 and -4 defensive ratings in 2006 and 2007 support that he is probably average or slightly below average, but if he can produce for a whole season what he did in 1/3 of the 2008 season, he will definitely be worthwhile for the 6.2mm option.

Willie Bloomquist is a player that actually lives up to the oft-used example of why batting average does not tell the whole story. The example compares a player who hits in the .270s but with no extra base hits to someone in the .250s but with plenty of extra base power. Bloomquist had one double, and everything else was a single. He played all over the place this year, generally ranging from -2 to +2 wherever he found time. He may find a home somewhere as a utility player, but he does not have much value.

Crede was worth about a half win less than an average player in just 97 games, but managed to be the fourth best fielding third baseman, at +13 in the field. He did hit 17 home runs in 335 at bats and has established himself as a capable performer, so if he can stay healthy, he could be a nice addition. Ramon Vazquez was the opposite in the field, at -10, and despite a nice .290/.365/.430 line, it was more of a mirage than an accurate performance indicator. Ironically, his 2007 and 2008 seasons were eerily similar in terms of playing time: he played 104 games last year and 105 this year; he amassed 300 AB in both seasons; he stepped to the plate 345 times in 2007 and 347 times in 2008. He walked more, struck out less, and added more hits to improve his overall numbers. Unfortunately, this hinged upon an unsustainable .355 BABIP. He may have had a nice season, but Blalock is the much better bet here.

I cannot speak enough about Russell Branyan and it pains me that he does not play more. Yes, he strikes out, but he walks and absolutely mashes as well. In 132 at bats this year he hit 12 home runs, and managed to play +2 defense when he found himself at third base. Three true outcome players usually decline around the 35 years old mark, so the Bran-man should have a couple more productive years in him.

Nomar’s career reminds me a lot of Grant Hill’s: they were megastars for six or seven seasons, well on their way to the respective halls of fame, but injuries slowed them down and turned them into nice role players but nowhere near go to guys. Casey Blake was a nice pickup by the Dodgers to solidify the position down the stretch, but I would not expect him to be re-signed by Ned Colletti. I would expect Nomar to land himself a 1B/3B job somewhere, and Blake to be a starting third baseman for at least one more season.

Craig Counsell, however, has probably reached the point where he hangs up the cleats and becomes a bench coach. From what I have heard, he is destined to be a manager, and it might be time to start that process. He was not awful with the bat, but is a below average hitter still hanging on due to his ability to play multiple positions and do “the small things.” Blalock is the real catch here, and so it is likely the Rangers will keep him for at least 2009.

With the playoffs in full swing and approximately just two weeks of baseball remaining, I thought it would be prudent to take a look at the free agent class at each position. After all, these are the players our teams will be fighting for in trying to acquire their services for, at the very least, the 2009 season. For now, our target will be the free agent class of catchers, which, to put it kindly, might bring some intangibles and unmeasurable defensive value to the table in order to counteract their putrid offense. One, just one of the fifteen free agents to be listed below, had a positive WPA/LI this season, and it was barely above average, meaning that the best hitter below was a league average producer. First, the “young guns” of this year’s free agent crop of catchers:

Name               Age        G            Slash        WPA/LI
Miguel Olivo        30       84   .255/.278/.444         -0.20
Josh Bard           31       57   .202/.279/.270         -1.09
Dave Ross           32       60   .225/.369/.352         -0.10
Michael Barrett     32       30   .202/.274/.298         -0.60

Now, Olivo has a 2.7 million dollar mutual option for next season, and he would be a good investment as he has always shown a knack for power in a more elevated backup role. He probably should not be a starting catcher, but he would perform well in a catcher platoon situation, or as a backup making more than 40 starts a season. Bard had an extremely disappointing season; maybe he cannot get over his inability to catch a knuckleball. Ross is a classic three true outcomes player, almost like Branyan-lite, and he was the least bad of this group. And Barrett, despite injuries, posted numbers Michael Bourn would be proud of in his 30 games of action.

Name               Age        G            Slash        WPA/LI
Rod Barajas         33      104   .249/.294/.410         -0.02
Johnny Estrada      33       23   .170/.200/.170         -0.56
Toby Hall           33       41   .260/.304/.331         -0.31
Javier Valentin     33       94   .256/.326/.411          0.06
Jason LaRue         35       61   .213/.296/.348         -0.33

How is Rod Barajas only 33 years old? Based on his play last season with the Phillies I would have guessed 37 or 38. On top of his ability to prevent himself from aging, he actually played quite well this year in extended duty with the Blue Jays, actually leading them in OPS at one point halfway through the season. He has a mutual option on his contract for next season that will likely be exercised. Estrada’s career has fallen fast but I am sure some team will take a low-risk flyer on him. Hall, like Barajas, has an option that will likely be exercised. Valentin falls into the aforementioned Miguel Olivo category, of a catcher with power that will do well in duty that falls between the roles of backup and starter. LaRue did not have a terrible year, and for a backup with leadership ability–I’m assuming, at least–he should be able to play until he is at least 37.

Name               Age        G            Slash        WPA/LI
Jason Varitek       37      131   .220/.313/.359         -1.55
Ivan Rodriguez      37      115   .276/.319/.394         -1.11
Paul Lo Duca        37       67   .243/.321/.295         -0.69
Henry Blanco        37       58   .292/.325/.392         -0.27
Paul Bako           37       99   .217/.299/.328         -1.35
Brad Ausmus         40       81   .218/.303/.296         -1.18

Blanco has a mutual option on his contract, and based on his lack of offensive suckitude this year, as well as his reputation of being defensively stellar, he will have a job next season. The other five, in a Seidman-run MLB, would be out of work. I know Varitek is “the captain,” but the captain cannot hit anymore, and sometimes, just sometimes, winning is better than nostalgia or loyalty in the sport of baseball. Pudge is a surefire hall of fame catcher, but he is well past his prime, not so great defensively, and below average offensively. However, I am sure he will be able to provide “veteran presence” to a young team somewhere in 2009.

Lo Duca shouldn’t have had a job this season, let alone next season, so enough said right there. Bako and Ausmus could be okay in very limited backup duty, but at that point, why even pay someone who may be okay in a situation when there likely are better options in the farm system? If I were GM of a team, I would go for Blanco, Valentin, Ross, and Olivo out of this group, and that is pretty much it. As a group, they were awful offensively, with one-third of the players posting a higher OBP than SLG, and adding up to enough lost wins below average that, if reversed, might have even gotten the Marlins or Astros into the post-season.

Thanks to Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors for supplying the free agent lists!