Archive for Ian desmond

Last month, I wrote about Ian Desmond’s improved swing. For two seasons, Desmond hit ground balls at the highest rate in baseball, which is generally not the mark of a successful hitter. That is especially true in the current era of “elevate and celebrate.” Desmond was not elevating and thus rarely celebrating, even while playing most of his games in Coors Field.

Things changed this season, and for the better. Desmond had an average launch angle of 0 degrees in both 2017 and 2018, but has raised that mark to 7.8 degrees in 2019. His barrel rate has increased as a result, and he’s hitting for much more power: His .236 ISO is a career high.

When I first wrote about Desmond, the results weren’t yet there. On May 15, the day before publication, he sported a .218/.285/.411 slash line. His 64 wRC+ ranked 159th among qualified hitters, and his -0.4 WAR ranked 166th. While the underlying numbers were still encouraging at the time, Desmond was not yet seeing results. Read the rest of this entry »

A year ago today, things were looking pretty good in Ian Desmond’s world. He was 29 years old and the starting shortstop for the Washington Nationals, heavy favorites to win the National League East. A few months earlier, Desmonds completed his third straight season of at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Defensive metrics indicated he was roughly average to above average at shortstop, and in terms of overall value, he was sitting on three straight seasons of more than four wins above replacement. In matters related to his bank account, he was just one season from free agency with no other big-name shortstops and a big payday.

But now, after a disastrous year, Desmond is still unsigned and his market is unclear.

There were some signs heading into last season that Desmond was in decline. His wRC+ went from 128 to 116 to 107 from 2012 to 2014, and his strikeouts moved in the opposite direction: 20% in 2012, 22% in 2013 and way up to 28% in 2014. Noticing a decline and expecting a collapse are two different situations, however. This is the list of players who, along with Ian Desmond, produced at least four WAR in each season from 2012 to 2014: Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey, Dustin Pedroia, Ben Zobrist, Adam Jones, Alex Gordon, Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera, and of course, Mike Trout. A year ago at this time, MLB Trade Rumors rated Desmond as the fourth-best pending free agent and mentioned a potential $200 million contract with another good season.

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Despite his below-average walk rate and high strikeout numbers, Ian Desmond’s power and speed have made up for his contact inadequacies during the past three years. He is, at once, an exciting and frustrating player to watch: a hitter prone to incredible dry spells followed by gluttonous power explosions. The Nationals have accepted his droughts — even going so far as to offer him a seven-year, $107 million dollar contract extension before the 2014 season — because the hot streaks were worth it.

Desmond has relied on that full combination of speed, low contact, and high power during the years since his breakout in 2012, and because of that, his skill set is a relatively tenuous one. We’ve seen players excel at a high level with those same type of skills, but the difference between productive and unproductive is closer when you rely on the ball going over the fence a certain number of times.

If we navigate to the batter leaderboards and sort by wRC+, Desmond has been the seventh-worst qualified offensive player in the majors this season. He’s been the very worst defensive shortstop. The nightmare scenario has come to fruition in Desmond’s walk year: a cratered home-run rate per fly ball (HR/FB), a walk rate dive, an almost total absence of speed, and really poor defense. The 2015 edition of Ian Desmond is now 2010 Desmond, except with more strikeouts and less on the base paths. Take a look:

Season	G	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	wRC+	WAR
2010	154	17	4.9%	19.0%	.124	86	0.8
2015	84	5	4.9%	28.4%	.124	61	-0.9

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We all know, entering the season, that the WAR leaderboards in the early part of the year reveal less about the players contained within them than those same WAR leaderboards at the end of the year. That knowledge doesn’t stop me, personally, from compulsively looking at the leaderboards just as soon as the season begins. Remember Freddy Galvis? He was tied for the National League lead among shortstops with 0.9 WAR — and “on pace” for a great season at the end of April. A month of replacement-level production has placed him considerably lower among major-league shortstops. What about Devon Travis? At the end of April, his 1.4 WAR was sixth in all of baseball. Unfortunately, an injury slowed him down and he has been unable to add to his impressive April totals.

Now that we have reached the second week of June, the leaderboards begin to look a little more familiar. Mike Trout, Josh Donaldson, and Paul Goldschmidt have continued great runs of production. Bryce Harper has emerged and Jason Kipnis has returned to form after a poor 2014 season. There are still surprises at this point, though. The production of Harper and Kipnis was not expected to reach these levels, Joc Pederson has been far more impressive than anyone could have expected, and Dee Gordon is still slapping and running his way into the top ten. We will see more changes as the season wears on, providing a more accurate depiction of player value as more games are played. However, since we are all looking at the leaderboards now, it might be worthwhile to point out a few anomalies in WAR totals due to the small sample sizes we have with defensive statistics.

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Ian Desmond turns 30 this coming September. “Hey, let me run out and get him a funny card about how he’s over the hill!” you might say, not realizing that’s actually not funny for baseball players. This is noteworthy because Desmond is in the last year of a contract with the Washington Nationals, and is a player who provides power at a position that has very little. That’s likely the main reason he reportedly turned down a seven-year, $107 million contract extension from the Nationals in the offseason before 2014, a piece of news that was only fully revealed this past November. I’m ashamed to say it slipped under my radar of analysis, dear readers, and I’m out to remedy that today.

It’s fair to say that Ian Desmond is an important part of this Nationals team. He is a rarity: a middle infielder who can bat fifth or sixth and provide the gawking sort of power normally reserved for positions played by large, slow men. According to Baseball Heat Maps, his average fly ball and home run distance of 297.5 feet was good for 24th-best in baseball in 2014, sandwiched between Pedro Alvarez and Devin Mesoraco. That mark is also a few ticks better than Troy Tulowitzki (295 feet), and gives us a good idea of just how much raw power he has.

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Ian Desmond is a success story. There isn’t another way to spin it. He spent his first two seasons as a big league regular playing below big league regular levels. He was fortunate to be young enough and on a team that wasn’t quite ready to compete, otherwise he might not have gotten another real opportunity. After two plus years at the major league level, he was sitting on 1,302 plate appearances and 2.5 WAR.

That’s a fine number for most of the world’s population, but with Nationals gearing up to become real contenders in 2012 Desmond was entering a sink or swim kind of season. He was 26, a good base runner, an average defensive player, and he only looked average at the plate if you compared him to other shortstops. Something had to change or the Nationals would have had to look elsewhere.

Obviously, something changed. Desmond’s defense got better and he started to hit for power. While he wasn’t known for Vottoian command of the strike zone, he held his own while also connecting for extra bases. His glove started to come along and over the last three years he’s at 14 WAR in 1,850 PA. A terrific success story and reason enough to pump the breaks after any down season early in a player’s career.

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Yesterday, we took a look at the top rookie performers in the American League, led by Detroit’s Austin Jackson. Today, we’re breaking down the key first year players in the National League through the first six weeks of the 2010 MLB season. It’s a pretty impressive list already, and we still haven’t seen the likes of Washington’s Stephen Strasburg or Florida’s Mike Stanton.

Rookies were considered based on a minimum of 50 plate appearances, four starts, or 10 relief appearances. Last year’s NL Rookie of the Year award went to Florida’s Chris Coghlan, followed by J.A. Happ (Philadelphia) and Tommy Hanson (Atlanta).

Tyler Colvin | OF | Chicago: The former No. 1 draft pick is having a nice debut despite being a surprise addition to the ’10 club. Colvin has shown more patience in the Majors (10.2 BB%) than in the minors, which has helped his overall numbers. He currently has a triple-slash line of .275/.345/.608 and an ISO rate of .333, which has been helped by eight extra base hits out of his 14 total base knocks. The strikeout rate is a worrisome at 29.4 K%.

Ike Davis | 1B | New York: Davis is in the Majors a lot sooner than a lot of people expect but he’s held his own with a .415 wOBA in 18 games. Overall, he has a triple-slash line of .316/.437/.544. Davis has shown a willingness to take a walk with a rate of 18.3 BB%. He’s also done his fair share of swinging and missing with a strikeout rate of 29.8%. The line-drive rate of 31.7% is pretty darn impressive for young Ike.

Ian Desmond | SS | Washington: Desmond is holding his own so far this season as the Nationals’ starting shortstop. He has a triple-slash line of .264/.323/.462, and his wOBA sits at .347. Along with three homers, the shortstop has added three stolen bases. Desmond’s strikeout rate is high (23.1 K%) for someone with modest power. He’s been solid so far with the glove.

Alcides Escobar | SS | Milwaukee: Escobar is an interesting rookie. He’s basically known for hitting for a hollow batting average with good speed and defense. So far in 2010, Escobar has a .222 average, a career-high .141 ISO rate, just one steal attempt in 27 games, and a modest defensive showing. After nabbing 46 bags in ’09, it’s borderline criminal that the young infielder isn’t utilizing his speed better.

David Freese | 3B | St. Louis: I won’t go too in-depth on Freese here, as I looked at him last week. Freese is currently hitting .320/.393/.476 with a .387 wOBA in 29 games. His power output has been modest for the hot corner (.155 ISO) but he has a history of posting strong batting averages in the minors.

Jason Heyward | RF | Atlanta: Heyward had his ups and his downs during the first month of the season, which is to be expected for a 20-year-old prospect making his MLB debut. What’s impressive is how quickly he’s made adjustments. Heyward currently has a .436 wOBA and his triple-slash line is up to .291/.410/.616 with eight homers (.326 ISO) in 105 at-bats. He does have some work to do defensively.

Tommy Manzella | SS | Houston: Manzella was holding his own for a little while in April but his triple-slash line has dipped to just .195/.235/.260 in 83 at-bats. His approach at the plate is clearly an issue, as he has a walk rate of just 2.4% and his strikeout rate has skyrocketed to 32.5%, which is far too high for a player with a .065 ISO rate. On the plus side, he’s played OK defense.

Gaby Sanchez | 1B | Florida: Sanchez, 26, is quietly going about his rookie season. The first baseman has a solid triple-slash line of .272/.368/.424 in 106 at-bats. His wOBA sits at .352. Sanchez has done a solid job of getting on base with a walk rate of 12.3%, which is right up there with his minor league numbers. He’s done OK with the strikeout rate at 20.7%, but his power is below average for a first baseman, so it would be better off around the 15% range.

Jaime Garcia | LHP | St. Louis: Garcia is another player that was highlighted recently. The lefty mixes four pitches well (fastball, cutter, curve, change) and he currently has positive pitch values on all four of his offerings. Along with his 89-91 mph fastball velocity, Garcia gets excellent sink on his heater and he currently has a ground-ball rate of 62%, which is second in the Majors to Atlanta’s Tim Hudson. He needs to make sure that he continues to keep his control in check.

Mike Leake | RHP | Cincinnati: Leake cannot boast a +60% ground-ball rate like Garcia, but his is still above average at 56.0%. The right-hander has continued to improve as the season has gone on. Currently, he’s given up just 32 hits in 40.2 innings of work and his xFIP sits at 4.11. He’s done a nice job of tossing a five-pitch mix at the National League hitters, which helps make up for his average fastball velocity.

Jenrry Mejia | RHP | New York: I cannot adequately express how disappointing it is to see Mejia being misused in New York. The 20-year-old right-hander has appeared in 15 games out of the bullpen and currently has a 4.61 BB/9 rate, as well as a strikeout rate of just 5.93 K/9. He’s shown a respectable fastball-slider combo, but his change-up (along with his overall control) is not getting any better by pitching a total of 13.2 innings in just under six weeks.

Jon Niese | LHP | New York: Niese has not received a ton of attention from traditional rookie watchers, likely due to his one win in six games. We all know there is much more to a pitcher’s game than wins (Less just ban the stat for individuals). The lefty has a solid strikeout rate at 7.46 K/9 and his control has improved significantly (3.09 BB/9) over his ’09 debut. Niese’s ground-ball rate is just shy of 50%. The base knock has been an issue for him as he’s allowed 46 hits in 35.0 innings.

Predictions

The Next Big Call-up: Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington
2010 First Half Star: Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta
2010 Second Half Star: Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta
2010 Overall NL ROY: Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta

General Manager: Mike Rizzo
Farm Director: Doug Harris
Scouting Director: Kris Kline

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included*)

The depth is still lacking in the Nationals system, but the good news is that the club is starting to collect some prospects with higher ceilings, led (of course) by Stephen Strasburg. Fellow ’09 draft pick Drew Storen is another pitcher to keep an eye on, as he could be in Washington by mid-season.

1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, College*
DOB: July 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2009 1st round – San Diego State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 92-98 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Yes, I am stepping away from my self-imposed restriction of not ranking 2009 draft picks. I’m sure you can understand why with Strasburg, who is by far the best prospect in the entire system, if not all of baseball. Statistically-speaking, there is little to go on with the big right-hander. He made his pro debut in the Arizona Fall League and allowed 15 hits in 19.0 innings, while punching out 23 and walking seven. He also produced a crazy number of ground-ball outs. Of the five starts that he made, he allowed more than one run just once (eight in 2.2 innings). There is some thought that Strasburg could step right into the Nationals rotation at the beginning of 2010, but he’s likely due for some minor-league seasoning in double-A.

2. Derek Norris, C, Low-A
DOB: February 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 4th round – Kansas HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Norris had a breakout season and is now one of the best catching prospects in all of baseball. Playing in low-A ball, the right-handed catcher hit .286/.413/.513 in 437 at-bats. His triple-slash line was aided by a .342 BABIP, which is rather high for a catcher – but Norris has better legs than most at his position (as seen by his 29 stolen bases attempts in two seasons). He showed excellent power with an ISO rate of .227, which helps justify (to a degree) the 26.5% strikeout rate. Norris showed exceptional patience at the plate with a walk rate of 16.7%. Defensively, he threw out 36% of base-stealers, but he allowed 28 passed balls.

3. Ian Desmond, SS, Majors
DOB: September 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 3rd round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

It’s taken Desmond a few years to navigate the minor-league waters but he appears ready to assume the full-time shortstop gig for the Nationals. The club is confident in the young infielder to the point where it is planning to move veteran Cristian Guzman to second base. Desmond began the year in double-A and hit .306/.372/.494 in 170 at-bats. He showed good power with an ISO rate of .188 but his strikeout rate was a tad high at 23.5%. That rate came down to 17.4% in 178 triple-A at-bats, but his power diminished to an ISO rate of .107. Overall, Desmond stole 21 bases in 26 attempts. Promoted to the Majors, he hit .280/.318/.561 in 82 at-bats. The 24-year-old shortstop should produce at a league-averag clip in 2010, at the very least.

4. Danny Espinosa, SS, High-A
DOB: April 1987 Bats: S Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Long Beach State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

If Desmond’s development suddenly goes south, the organization also has Espinosa waiting in the wings. He looks quite different than the player of the same name at Long Beach State University, who never topped more than seven homers (in 210 at-bats) and was considered a line-drive hitter. Taking to the wood, though, has been good for Espinosa. His aggressive approach has remain consistent, though, and he has produced a high strikeout rate in pro ball (27.2%) and he did not hit for much average in ’09 with a triple-slash line of .264/.375/.460 in 474 high-A at-bats. With 29 steals in 40 tries, Espinosa could develop into a 20-20 threat if his power output (.196 ISO, 18 homers) is for real. He’s beginning to look a little bit like Toronto’s Aaron Hill, but with more speed. Defensively, Espinosa has a strong arm and solid range at shortstop.

5. Chris Marrero, 1B, Double-A
DOB: July 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It’s been a long, slow climb through the system for this former No. 1 draft pick. Marrero was stuck in high-A ball for three seasons but he finally received a taste of double-A (23 games) in ’09. At the lower level, he hit .287/.360/.464 in 414 at-bats. He has yet to show consistent power and his ISO rate was .176 before it dropped to .120 with his promotion. His strikeout rate (23.4%) and walk rate (9.0%) both remained almost identical despite the move. Marrero is a below-average fielder at first base so he needs to tap into his raw power more consistently if he’s going to be an everyday player at the MLB level. Just 21, he’ll return to double-A for the 2010 season.

6. Michael Burgess, OF, High-A
DOB: October 1988 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 supplemental 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A move from low-A in ’08 to high-A in ’09 saw Burgess’ OPS drop from .804 to .735. He also lost some pop in his bat as his ISO rate slipped from .219 to .175. Although his walk rates (9.9%) were almost identical and strikeout rate of 28.1% was actually an improvement over ’08’s 33.9%, Burgess’ numbers took a dive in part due to a .288 BABIP (down from .331 in ’08). The stocky outfielder hit .235/.325/.410 in 480 at-bats in ’09, and he’s going to continue to struggle to hit for a high average until he gets his strikeout rate under control. He attempted 20 steals and was caught eight times. Defensively, he has a very strong arm and is a good fielding right-fielder.

7. Bradley Meyers, RHP, Double-A
DOB: September 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 5th round – Loyola Marymount University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

A little-known pitcher entering ’09, Meyers had a solid year and looks poised to help the Nationals club in 2010, if needed. The right-hander has good size for a pitcher and an average repertoire that plays up due to his good control (2.10 BB/9 in ’09). Meyers began the year in high-A and allowed 71 hits with a 2.72 FIP in 88.1 innings of work. He allowed just one home run thanks to a 51% ground-ball rate. Moved up to double-A, he posted a 2.76 FIP and gave up 40 hits in 48.0 innings. His strikeout rate also jumped from 6.62 to 8.06 K/9. Meyers allowed just two homers at the senior level, although his ground-ball rate dipped to 40%. Pitching depth remains a weakness in the organization, so Meyers could definitely see time in the Majors in 2010 if he continues to pitch well.

8. Aaron Thompson, LHP, Double-A
DOB: February 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 1st round – Texas HS (Florida)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-91 fastball, plus change-up, curveball, slider

Thompson, like Meyers, does not have a huge ceiling but they both project as useful big-league arms. This former supplemental first round pick was obtained from Florida last season for first baseman Nick Johnson and he posted solid numbers after changing addresses. Thompson pitched 114.0 innings for the Marlins’ double-A squad and he allowed 121 hits, while posting a walk rate of 3.39 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 5.92 K/9. After the trade, the southpaw saw his rates improve to 3.03 BB/9 and 7.44 K/9. He also allowed 32 hits in 32.2 innings. Thompson clearly needs to find a way to cut down on the hits allowed and he’s been incredibly unlucky throughout his career when it comes to his LOB% rate, which was 65% in ’09.

9. Destin Hood, OF, Short-Season
DOB: April 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Alabama HS
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A prep football star, the organization swayed Hood away from an Auburn University football scholarship with an above-slot contract in 2008. The outfielder remains raw but he continues to show flashes of developing into a solid baseball player. He hit well in a brief stint in rookie ball (.330/.388/.614 in 88 at-bats) before moving up to short-season ball, where his numbers dipped a bit. At the upper level, Hood hit .246/.302/.333 in 138 despite a .352 BABIP. His strikeout rate was a disturbingly-high 32.6% and he did not produce the power numbers (.087 ISO) to help justify such a large number. Hood does not have much speed, so he’s not a stolen-base threat and he’s very raw defensive. He should move up to low-A ball for the 2010 season.

10. Eury Perez, OF, Rookie
DOB: May 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Perez certainly does not have the pedigree of some of the other bigger-named (and bigger $$$) Latin signings in the past few years. With that said, he burst onto the baseball landscape with authority in ’09 by hitting .381/.443/.503 in 181 at-bats. The high slugging percentage is likely a figment of the small-sample size and level of competition, as Perez has a small frame and is built more for speed (16 steals in 24 tries) and his ISO rate was just .122. The outfielder showed a pretty good approach at the plate for his age, with a walk rate of 7.3% and a strikeout rate of just 11.0%. His high batting average, though, was the result of a crazy .418 BABIP. Because he has a pretty good idea at the plate, and he buys into the strengths of his game (59% ground-ball rate), Perez – although very raw – has the chance to develop into a solid top-of-the-order hitter.

Up Next: The AL/NL East Recap

From the Washington Post, March 9, 2005:

Jim Bowden, the general manager of the Washington Nationals, picked up his cell phone earlier this week and punched in the speed dial for Dana Brown, his scouting director. Bowden wanted to discuss Ian Desmond, a shortstop the Nationals brought into big league camp after taking him in the third round of last year’s draft.

“Dana,” Bowden said. “You made a mistake when you drafted Desmond.”

Brown was shocked. “Why?” he asked.

“Because you took him in the third round instead of the first round,” Bowden replied.

…

So, even though Desmond will almost certainly start the year at Class A Savannah, the obvious question arises: If Cristian Guzman, the starting shortstop, was injured, would the Nationals look to Desmond?

“I wouldn’t be afraid to put him out there,” Robinson said.

“I wouldn’t be afraid to bring him to the big leagues to play defense,” Bowden said.

Ultimately, Bowden said, Desmond’s bat will determine how quickly he rises.

* * *
My what a difference four years can make – three if you consider Ian Desmond was considered by Baseball America to be the Nationals’ fourth-best prospect heading into 2006. After being the talk of the town in 2005, Desmond has endured some lean times with the bat. The slick fielder has just finished his first full season at Double-A after spending three years in A-ball despite the glowing remarks in the article snippet above.

During the 2008 season, Desmond hit .251/.318/.406 in 323 at-bats. He walked just 31 times and struck out in 78 at-bats, but Desmond has shown some promising power in the last two seasons and could be a 15-15 man at the Major League level, with above-average defence and a few stolen bases tossed in for good measure.

One area Desmond needs to improve in is his at-bats against right-handed pitchers. His OPS was almost 150 points higher against southpaws. A more patient approach could also help him get into better hitters’ counts… He appeared to be making headway in 2007 when he posted a .357 OBP, but he regressed in Double-A and was closer to his career OBP of .312. As well, Desmond appears to put too much pressure on himself with runners in scoring position and hit just .198.

With incumbent Cristian Guzman resigning with Washington recently through 2010 ($16 million), the Nationals organization essential bought Desmond two more years of development time, which it looks like he’ll need. And unfortunately for Washington, the organization has no other shortstop prospects anywhere near ready to help out. Desmond will continue to work on his bat during the 2008 Arizona Fall League with an eye on 2011.