Archive for Ian Kennedy

I recall that Tangotiger likes to think of pitchers as batters as a control group. Here we have a bunch of non-hitters put into hitting situations, and so their statistics in such situations are worthy of investigation. The best control group might be American League pitchers, pitchers who’ve never been in the National League before — NL pitchers, obviously, get more than a little batting practice — but even NL pitchers get only a fraction of the batting practice that position players get, because they are pitchers and they all need to work on their pitching. All of them. So they work as an effective control group anyway.

Within that control group, though, there exists a variety of batting approaches. Not every pitcher as a batter is alike, nor would we expect them to be. There’s Yovani Gallardo, who bats like a power hitter. There’s Barry Zito, who tries his damnedest to get his bat on everything and who doesn’t at all concern himself with the quality of actual contact. There’s Tommy Hanson, who sucks. Every pitcher as a batter is at least just a little bit different from all the others, and this all brings us to Ian Kennedy. Today you’re going to learn something about Ian Kennedy that you presumably didn’t know, and that you presumably didn’t think you would ever bother to know.

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Despite an early bounce from the postseason, it was a successful year for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The club reached the postseason for the fifth time in its relatively brief history (14 seasons) — and the franchise also saw breakout performances from the likes of starting pitchers Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson, as well as outfielder Justin Upton.

But how sustainable is Arizona’s recent success? Is the organization doomed to be a one-year wonder — or does it have the young talent to continue its assault on National League opponents? On first glance, the Diamondbacks appear to have a bright future.

Starting rotation

The emergence of Kennedy and Hudson has been key to the club’s success and the pair should be around for a while. Kennedy, 26, has found new life in Arizona after being cast off by the Yankees. He’s averaged more than 200 innings in the past two seasons and succeeds with merely decent stuff while also being a fly-ball pitcher. His 3.22 FIP in 2011 was more than a full run better than in 2010, when he posted a 4.33 FIP. While some regression wouldn’t be a shock — if Kennedy can continue to command his fastball like he did this season — he could continue to perform like a No. 2 starter.

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The All-Star game rosters were announced Sunday, which of course means chaos ensued when the selections were revealed. Player X shouldn’t have gotten in while Stats-Stud Y should have been a lock. Since many of the selections were pretty predictable, those snubbed from the festivities, as usual, garnered a tremendous amount of attention.

Of those who were not selected, perhaps nobody was more egregiously snubbed than Andrew McCutchen of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The 24-year-old center fielder ranks eighth among National League hitters with a .395 wOBA. His 6.9 fielding runs derived from solid play at the toughest outfield position ranks third in the league behind Shane Victorino (also snubbed, but on the final vote, unlike McCutchen), and Troy Tulowitzki.

All told, his 4.6 wins above replacement ranks him ahead of everyone except the two Joses: Bautista and Reyes. Any list of first-half MVP contenders would be incomplete without his name, and yet fans, players and the coaching staff of the National League team somehow found a way to select other less-qualified players. That he isn’t even included on the final ballot for fan voting — the list includes Victorino, Todd Helton, Ian Kennedy, Michael Morse and Andre Ethier — further perpetuates the madness. McCutchen is one of the top players in the sport right now, better than Jay Bruce, Carlos Beltran, Chipper Jones, Morse and Ethier. Yet the first three members of that group were voted in by the players, and the latter two still have a fighting chance of making the team.

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Over the next few days, we’re looking at sophomore, or second-year, players in the Major Leagues. Today’s post is looking at the American League East division. Yesterday, we looked at the American League Central.

Ian Kennedy came into the Yankees’ system with a reputation of being a pretty good college pitcher, but he was not quite as highly regarded as he had been coming out of high school (in part because he lost a little bit off the fastball). Despite some grumblings that Kennedy had been an overdraft as a first-round draft pick, the right-hander dominated the minor leagues (He has a career 1.96 ERA in the minors). There is a reason, though, that they call it the “Major Leagues” and Kennedy was hit around in 2008. He posted an 8.17 ERA and allowed 50 hits in just 39.2 innings or work. His walk rate, which was 2.8 BB/9 in the minors, jumped to 5.90 BB/9. Kennedy got off to a solid start in 2009 in four games at triple-A but he then underwent surgery for an aneurysm under his right armpit and will be out until after the All-Star break.

Like Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain was a pretty good college pitcher but he had injuries problems and other teams shied away from him. Big mistake. The Yankees took a risk and have one of the top young arms in baseball, although Chamberlain has still had a few injuries throughout his pro career. In 2008, the right-hander spent time in both the starting rotation and the bullpen. He allowed just 87 hits in 100.1 innings, while posting a 2.60 ERA (2.65 FIP). Chamberlain also posted an excellent strikeout rate at 10.58 K/9. In 2009, he has continued to pitch well, although he has not been as dominant. He has a 3.86 ERA (4.68 FIP) with 56 hits allowed in 63.1 innings of work. His walk rate has risen from 3.50 in 2008 to 4.69 BB/9 in 2009. His strikeout rate has decreased to 8.24 K/9. Chamberlain’s average fastball velocity has decreased each of the past three seasons, from 97 to 95 to 92.4 mph, although part of that can be attributed to spending more time in the starting rotation.

Both Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez came out of almost nowhere in 2008 to provide much-needed innings for the Yankees’ bullpen. Veras, now 28, allowed 52 hits in 57.2 innings and had a strikeout rate of 9.83 K/9. However, he was just designated for assignment after posting a 5.96 ERA in 2009 and seeing his strikeout rate drop to 6.31 K/9, while also struggling with his control and gopher ball tendencies. Ramirez, also 28, had a 3.90 ERA in 2008 and posted a 3.90 BB/9 rate, as well as a strikeout rate of 10.25 K/9. In 2009, though, he’s regressed to a 5.19 ERA, and rates of 7.79 BB/9 and 8.31 K/9.

As far as first-round picks go, David Purcey has been a huge disappointment. Making his MLB debut at the age of 26, the left-hander posted a 5.54 ERA and allowed 67 hits in 65 innings of work, although he showed some improvements as the year progressed. His rates were 4.02 BB/9 and 8.03 K/9. In 2009, he won an opening-day rotation spot but made just five starts before a demotion to triple-A. In those starts, Purcey allowed a 7.01 ERA, 28 hits in 25.2 innings and posted rates of 6.31 BB/9 and 9.12 K/9.

Southpaw Jesse Carlson was a revelation in 2008 and appeared in 69 games as a rookie. He posted a 2.25 ERA (3.80 FIP) and allowed just 41 hits in 60 innings of work. In 2009, though, Carlson’s ERA has risen to 5.22 (although his FIP is just 3.80) and he’s allowed 31 hits in 29.1 innings. His control is OK (3.15 BB/9 in 2008, 2.76 in 2009) but he hasn’t had the same command of his pitches and his strikeout rate has dropped from 8.25 K/9 in 2008 to 5.83 K/9 this season.

Radhames Liz has a blistering fastball but he’s just one more hard-throwing pitcher that has no idea how to pitch (Daniel Cabrera, anyone?). Liz, 26, was promoted to the Majors in 2008 by the pitching-poor Orioles and was coming off a good half season in the minors, as well as a very good 2007 season at double-A. Liz allowed 99 hits in 84.1 innings, while also posting a 6.72 ERA. He posted rates of 5.44 BB/9 and 6.08 K/9. So far this year, Liz has a 6.09 ERA in triple-A and has a 67.50 ERA in two relief appearances in the Majors. Velocity is not everything.

Another hard thrower, Dennis Sarfate appeared in 57 games for the Orioles as a rookie in 2008. He allowed just 62 hits in 79.2 innings of work and posted rates of 7.00 BB/9 and 9.72 K/9. Sarfate, 28, appeared in just eight games in 2009 and posted an ERA of 6.39 before going on the disabled list with circulation problems in his finger. Right-hander Jim Johnson was also a major contributor to the 2008 bullpen as a rookie. He posted a 2.23 ERA (3.38 FIP) while allowing 54 hits in 68.2 innings of work. In 2009, Johnson, 25, has continued to have success with a 3.07 ERA (3.83 FIP) and 28 hits allowed in 29.1 innings. His strikeout rate has actually risen from 4.98 K/9 in 2008 to 6.14 K/9 in 2009.

A sinker-slider pitcher, Justin Masterson has bounced between the starting rotation and bullpen for the Red Sox during the past two seasons with good success in both roles. The right-hander induces a lot of groundballs and gets his fair share of strikeouts in the process. He posted a 3.16 ERA (4.69 FIP) while allowing 68 hits in 88.1 innings of work in 2008. In 2009, the 24 year old has a 3.88 ERA (3.68 FIP) with 56 hits allowed in 53.1 innings. Masterson has also seen his BABIP allowed increase from .243 in 2008 to .332 in 2009. His walk rate has decreased from 4.08 in 2008 to 3.04 BB/9 this season.

Clay Buchholz burst upon the scene in 2007 but struggled during his rookie season in 2008 by allowing 93 hits in 76 innings of work. He posted a 6.75 ERA and posted a strikeout rate of 4.86 BB/9. He’s really turned things around in triple-A this season, although there is no opening in the Red Sox Major League rotation. Buchholz has a 1.75 ERA (3.27 FIP) in triple-A with 40 hits allowed in 67 innings. His walk rate is just 2.01 BB/9.

Jed Lowrie did a nice job as an injury replacement in 2008 for the Red Sox. He had a triple-slash line of .258/.339/.400 with two homers in 260 at-bats. His strikeout rate of 26.2 K% was a little high for an infielder with modest pop, but he filled in at three positions and provided solid defense. After just five games in 2009 Lowrie required wrist surgery. He’s currently rehabbing.

It was hard for Jacoby Ellsbury to build off his debut in 2007, but he had a solid – albeit unspectacular – first full season in Majors in 2008. He hit .280/.336/.394 with 50 stolen bases in 61 attempts. Ellsbury’s triple-slash line in 2009 is .306/.351/.383 and he’s stolen 25 bases in 31 attempts. He’s also trimmed his strikeout rate from 14.4 to 8.9 K/9, while maintaining almost the same walk rate at 6.1 BB%. Ellsbury is proving to be a very solid player, but he’s probably not a star.

Evan Longoria had a huge 2008 season and won the American League Rookie of the Year award. He produced a triple-slash line of .272/.343/.531 and hit 27 home runs. So far this year, Longoria has been even better with a line of .305/.387/.584 with 14 home runs and 58 RBI. His walk rate has increased from 9.3 in 2008 to 11.4 BB% in 2009. His strikeout rate has stayed almost the same at 26.5 K%. Longoria also plays a solid third base. He should be a mainstay in the Rays lineup for many years to come.

Matt Joyce spent the 2008 season with Detroit and hit .252/.339/.510 with 12 homers in 242 at-bats. Traded to Tampa Bay for Edwin Jackson prior to the 2009 season, Joyce, 24, has regressed and has spent most of the season in triple-A. Jackson, though, has had a breakout season for Detroit.

The New York Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre is currently 11-0 on the young season thanks to some strong pitching (unlike the big league team) and timely hitting.

The Scranton club has a rotation that might give the Washington Nationals club a run for its money. Included in the rotation are five pitchers with MLB experience: Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Kei Igawa, Jason Johnson and Alfredo Aceves. Johnson is the old man of the group at the age of 35 and he has more than 1,300 MLB innings to his credit (as well as a 4.83 career FIP). He has a tidy ERA in three starts in 2009 but he’s also allowed 19 hits and six walks in 16 innings of work.

The enigma that is Igawa has made two minor league starts and has allowed just seven hits in 12 innings, but opponents have gone yard against him four times. Aceves, perhaps the biggest surprise contributor to the Yankees last season, is having the toughest time of any starter on the Triple-A squad with a 7.20 FIP (10.00 ERA) with 11 hits and three homers allowed in nine innings of work.

The two big names knocking on the door in New York (or perhaps it’s more appropriate to say, “Showcasing themselves for other teams”) are obviously Kennedy and Hughes. Kennedy will be only 24 years old for the duration of the 2009 season, so he’s still young. A trade to the National League might be the best thing for his career, as there are a lot of No. 3 starters in that league having success with worst stuff and much less pitchability. Kennedy has allowed just nine hits and two walks (with 16 Ks) in 12 innings.

Hughes is still not as polished as his teammate, but his stuff can be dominating when he’s on – and the right-hander is still just 22 years of age. He’s shown improved command and control so far on the young season with just two walks in 11.2 innings of work. The most important thing for Hughes at this point, though, is to prove he’s healthy.

In the bullpen, three relievers have yet to allow earned runs on the year: veteran Brett Tomko, Mark Melancon, and David Robertson (who was called up briefly to the Majors and provided two shutout innings for the big club). Combined, those three relievers have provided 22.2 innings of scoreless relief with just nine hits, four walks and 34 strikeouts. Of the four other relievers, no one has an ERA above 3.38 – and that’s Anthony Claggett, whom New York fans will not forget anytime soon.

On the offensive side of things, the now-injured Austin Jackson (day-to-day with a bruised elbow) is leading the regulars with a .480 average. He has just one extra base hit, but he’s stolen three bases and is showing improved patience at the plate with five walks in seven games, which bodes well for his future as a lead-off hitter.

Three hitters on the team have been hitting for power, with Shelley Duncan leading the way with four dingers and is second in RBI with 13 in 37 at-bats. Other players providing home runs and driving in runs include Juan Miranda (3 HR/15 RBI), Todd Linden (3/12), and Angel Berroa (2/11).

Of the lesser-known players on the roster, second baseman Kevin Russo is having the most impressive overall start to the season. The former Baylor University infielder is hitting .382/.417/.471 with 13 hits and three stolen bases in seven games. The 24-year-old New York native hit .307/.363/.416 for Double-A in 2008 and may yet carve out a MLB career as a utility player. One neat (small-sample-size) stat has Russo hitting .714 against southpaws (5-for-7) in the early going.

If things don’t improve in New York in a hurry, management might be tempted to swap the entire Triple-A roster for the Major League roster. OK, maybe not… but you know the Steinbrenners were not happy after (or during) that 22-run loss in new Yankee stadium.

The San Diego Padres’ low A-ball affiliate in Fort Wayne earns runner-up honors as the second hottest team in the minors with a 10-0 record. Eight pitchers in Fort Wayne have an ERA below 1.00. Eight. And the highest ERA on the team is 4.50 from starter Rob Musgrave. Yes, it’s early but it’s still a neat feat. Key names on the team include pitchers Nick Schmidt, and Simon Castro, as well as hitters Andrew Cumberland, James Darnell, and Allan Dykstra.

Money may not buy happiness, but it does allow you the flexibility to take some risks. The New York Yankees have taken a few gambles in recent years during the annual amateur draft. The most-publicized risk was drafting North Carolina State right-hander Andrew Brackman (and paying him $3.35 million), who needed Tommy John surgery before he would even throw one professional pitch.

Another move one year earlier, though, that flew under the radar was drafting college reliever Mark Melancon out of the University of Arizona. Melancon was widely considered the best – and most advanced – college reliever in the draft. But he was suffering from a strained elbow ligament, and whispers of Tommy John surgery persisted.

Melancon fell out of the first round of the draft and was snapped up by the Yankees with the 284th selection in the ninth round. The Yankees gave him third round money ($600,000) and sent him to the New York Penn League. Melancon had not pitched since April due to the elbow injury and he lasted just 6.2 innings in pro ball before being shut down to go under the knife.

The 2007 season was a year of rehab for the right-hander but he came back strong in 2008. Melancon began the season in High-A ball and allowed 26 hits and six walks in 25.1 innings of work. He also struck out 20. Melancon was then promoted to Double-A where he worked 49.2 innings and allowed 32 hits and 12 walks. He also struck out 47 and induced two groundball outs for every flyball out. Melancon then finished out the regular season in Triple-A. He allowed just 11 hits and four walks in 20 innings. He struck out 22 batters.

Overall, in his first season back from surgery, Melancon was 8-1 with a 2.27 ERA in 95 innings. He allowed 69 hits and just 22 walks, which is impressive considering command is supposed to be the last thing that returns after Tommy John surgery. It’s clear Melancon is close to being a large part of the future of the Yankees’ bullpen.

*The 2006 draft was a huge help to the Yankees’ pitching depth, as the organization also scooped up Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Zach McAllister, George Kontos, Dellin Betances and Daniel McCutchen.