Archive for Jack Cust

Jon Paul Morosi is reporting that Jack Cust will join the Mariners on a one-year, $2.5 million deal – the sort of contract that will once again allow Cust the chance to rack up surplus value for his team. In his career to date, Cust has been paid $6.165 million, and racked up 8.2 WAR for his teams.

It’s not too hard to see why his skills may be undervalued. In an off-season that saw Mark Reynolds traded for two relievers, a glove-less slugger that has struck out in 38.9% of his major league at-bats is not a sough-after entity. But along with those strikeouts come walks (17.3% career) and power (.207 ISO career). In fact, over his career, 53% of his plate appearances have ended in a walk, strikeout or home run. At least with the bat, he’ll help (126 career wRC+, 138 last year), so he can be your all-or-nothing DH if you shop in the bargain aisle.

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For the second straight offseason, the Oakland Athletics non-tendered Designated Hitter/ “Outfielder” Jack Cust. Arizona’s first-round pick in the 1997 draft drifted through Colorado, Baltimore, Oakland and San Diego before the A’s re-acquired him in May of 2007, and the uber-patient lefty batter has since hit a collective .247/.381/.457 in the Green and Gold. During his time in Oakland, Cust’s park and league-adjusted Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) has been 30 percent better than the average batter (130 wRC+). Despite his utter lack of positional value, that bat has allowed Cust to post win values of +3.0 in 2007, +2.1 in 2008, +1 in 2009 and +2.4 this past year. According to our dollar values, Cust’s performance with the A’s has been worth about $36 million, while he has earned around $6 million over that time frame.

Cust is entering his last year of arbitration eligibility, and he made $2.65 million in 2010. Given that his salary will remain modest in 2011, he might seem like a nice acquisition for a team in search of patience and pop at a bargain price. Look closer, though, and you’ll see some reasons to doubt that Cust can keep it up at the plate.

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Apparently, Eric Chavez won’t be playing zombie #3 in the latest George Romero flick. With the announcement that Oakland designated Jack Cust for assignment, it appears that Chavez will take over DH duties in Oakland.

Cust was non-tendered by the A’s in December, then re-signed with the club for $2.65 million in January. The 31 year-old lefty batter is coming off of a mild season at the plate in 2009, as his wOBA fell to .342 (it was .371 in 2008 and .393 in 2007).

The former Diamondback, Rockie, Oriole and Padre still drew plenty of walks this past year, but took a cut at more pitches than in previous seasons:

2007: 13.8 Outside Swing%, 62.4 Z-Swing%, 20.7 BB%
2008: 15.3 Outside Swing%, 62.8 Z-Swing%, 18.6 BB%
2009: 17.5 Outside Swing%, 67.9 Z-Swing%, 15.2 BB%

As Dave Allen noted last July, Cust expanded his zone, seemingly in an attempt to make more contact. His whiff rate dropped from the 41 percent range to 36 percent and his contact rate rose from the mid-sixties to the high-sixties, but his power suffered. After posting Isolated Power figures of .248 in 2007 and .245 in 2008, his ISO dipped to .177 in 2009.

The phrase “power to all fields” may seem trite, but Cust certainly fit the description in 2007 and 2008. While he was above average when he pulled the ball, he mashed to the middle and opposite fields like few others. In 2009? He was still well above average on balls hit to the middle and opposite fields, but he didn’t pull the ball with much authority. Here are Cust’s spray numbers over the 2007-2009 seasons, as well as the league averages for lefty batters for context:

I highlighted Cust’s ’09 numbers on balls hit to left and balls pulled to the right. Cust’s opposite field hitting (.374 wOBA) remained very good relative to the league average for lefties (.316 wOBA), though obviously short of his .500+ wOBA marks on balls hit to left in 2007 and 2008. When Cust pulled the ball in ’09, his .377 wOBA came in well under the .399 league average and was a far cry from his .434 mark in 2007 and .464 figure in 2008.

As for 2010, CHONE, ZiPS and the FANS all project Cust to post a wOBA in the .360 range. Considering that Cust plays defense like his cleats are made of cinder blocks (career -20.4 UZR/150 in the outfield), he’s one of the few players who holds more value as a DH than a position player.

Cust could stay with the A’s if he clears waivers and accepts a minor league assignment. However, one obvious landing spot would be the south side of Chicago, where the White Sox are set to open 2010 with an underwhelming DH duo of Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay. Jones and Kotsay project as sub-replacement-level at the DH spot, and Cust could be a two-win upgrade if he matches those offensive forecasts. Considering how tightly bunched the AL Central standings figure to be, Chicago shouldn’t let such a chance slip past them.

Chavez, meanwhile, will try to pick up the pieces of a career that has been shattered by back, shoulder and elbow injuries. Entering the last guaranteed year of a six-year, $66 million deal that was entirely defensible at the time, Chavez will pull down $12 million in 2010.

The memories might be hazy now, but the 32 year-old was once a force both in the field and at the plate, eclipsing the 5 WAR mark in 2001, 2003, 2004 and 2005. Chavez could be quickly relegated to spectator status by another injury, Jake Fox or Chris Carter, but it’s hard not to root for the guy.

One thing the Oakland Athletics organization does not get enough credit for, thank to the media focus on its drafting philosophies, is finding diamonds in the rough. In recent seasons, the Athletics have found players in the bargain bin only to squeeze unexpected value from them. That list includes such players as Jack Cust, Shannon Stewart, Andrew Brown, Jack Hannahan, and Frank Thomas (version 1.0).

The same can be said for minor league players in the system… Now these players may not have a major impact like Cust did when he hit 26 homers in 2007, but minor league depth is vitally important for a franchise to be successful. As such, let’s take a look at some of the more interesting players the Athletics organization has added to its system via minor league free agency and the waiver wire.

At 6-1, 165 pounds, third baseman Jesus Guzman does not look like a slugger, but he currently has 18 doubles and 12 home runs in 276 at-bats for the Double-A Midland RockHounds. The 24-year-old minor league free agent pick-up is also hitting .355/.405./.565. Last year at High-A ball (albeit in the hitting haven of High Desert), Guzman hit .301/.370/.539 with 25 homers, 38 doubles, 102 runs scored and 112 RBI. Why did Seattle give up on this guy? The organization likely cut ties with him because his big 2007 came after two not-so-great seasons at Double-A. But that comes with a caveat because Seattle did what is becoming a disturbing trend. It rushed Guzman. He came to North America, after signing out of Venezuela, and was immediately placed in High-A ball at the age of 20. He then was pushed to Double-A the next season and he averaged about .258/.334/.388 for the next two seasons before moving back down to High-A ball and thriving.

Jon Zeringue, 25, has been a nice find for the A’s organization and has provided solid numbers for Double-A Midland since being picked up out of an independent baseball league last season. The former second round pick of the Arizona Diamondbacks was, like Guzman, rushed through the minors and struggled with Double-A before being unceremoniously released. This season he his hitting .290/.383/.504 with 11 homers and 42 runs scored in 238 at-bats. He has a .340 average against southpaws and 10 of his 16 hits have been doubles.

Wes Bankston is a forgotten member of the Tampa Bay Rays’ ridiculous minor league depth. Drafted out of high school, the slugging first baseman hit .301/.346/.569 with 18 homers in 246 Rookie Ball at-bats in 2002. Two seasons later in A-ball, he slugged 23 homers and drove in 101 runs and sat amongst the Rays’ best prospects. Then injuries slowed his ascent and the organization experimented with an ill-advised conversion to third base. After a disappointing offensive season at Triple-A in 2007, at the age of 23, Bankston was removed from the 40-man roster to make room for a new wave of talent and was claimed on waivers by the A’s. Bankston is still struggling at Triple-A as his plate discipline has diminished along with his power but he is still young enough to recapture his past approach and secure a part-time Major League job.

From all appearances Brooks Conrad is a perfect fit for the Athletics organization. The former eighth round pick of the Houston Astros out of Arizona State University was never given a fair shake in the organization despite above-average offensive numbers as a second baseman, including 40 doubles, 15 triples and 24 homers in Triple-A in 2006. Conrad did not even sniff a Major League plate appearance in seven seasons in the Astros organization. His numbers are not looking so hot this season but Conrad could still have some value on a major league bench, in part due to his grinder mentality, if he can improve his average. He is currently hitting .227/.293/.446 with 13 homers in 242 at-bats.

Casey Rogowski is a former White Sox prospect. The left-handed hitting first baseman has always intrigued teams with his raw power and surprising base running skills for a 6-3, 230 pound man. He has stolen more than 15 bases seven times and surpassed 20 twice. However, he has only exceeded 15 homers once, although he is on pace to do it again this season and is currently hitting .273/.347/.444 with nine homers in 216 at-bats. Rogowski has also taken his fair share of walks in his career. He is yet another player who could eventually find part-time employment at the Major League level.

You don’t win big without taking a little risk and thinking outside the box, which is what these players represent. They won’t be superstars and some of them may never play at the Major League level for the Athletics but, as mentioned, the organization is one of the best when it comes to squeezing value out of other organization’s rejects and failed projects. These five players all possess the potential to join the likes of Cust and Hannahan at exceeding expectations.

Last season, Jack Cust was one of the out-of-nowhere stories of the year. He’d received all of four plate appearances in the majors from 2004 to 2006, and had essentially been relegated to Triple-A slugger while bouncing from organization to organization. The Padres sold him to the A’s for cash after Oakland experienced enough injury problems that they felt they needed a warm body, and Cust responded to the opportunity by hitting .256/.408/.504 and becoming a key part of their line-up.

2008 hasn’t gone as well. He’s currently sitting at .161/.373/.242 through 83 plate appearances, one of the stranger batting lines you’ll ever see. He has just seven hits on the season, but he’s drawn 20 walks in 22 games, so he’s posting a respectable on base percentage despite the fact that he’s just not hitting. Generally, you’d look at a .161 batting average and conclude that the guy is just in a slump, and that regression to the mean will make that bounce back in the not too distant future. Jack Cust isn’t your normal hitter, though. He strikes out at unbelievable 41.4% clip, making contact less often than just about any other position player in recent history. Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn combine to cover the top three spots in single season strikeout totals in major league history, and even they didn’t get particularly close to striking out in 41% of their at-bats with career rates of 35% and 32% respectively.

I was going to show you a chart of the K% for those three plotted next to each other, but realized it wouldn’t be very helpful, because Jack Cust’s markings aren’t on it. See, the Fangraphs K% chart tops out at 40%, and Cust is consistently above that mark. He’s literally off the charts.

When you strike out as much as Cust does, you have to be amazing when you make contact. Last year, Cust was, posting a .366 batting average on balls in play and whacking 26 home runs in 124 games. So far, in April, Cust’s batting average on balls in play is down to .242, and only one of his seven hits are home runs. Even when he hits the ball, it’s not going anywhere, and that’s made him a significant liability at the plate during the first month of the season. With the signing of Frank Thomas to be the regular DH, Cust is going to have to play left field to keep his spot in the line-up. Unfortunately for him and the A’s, he’s about as good at that as he is at making contact. He might be the worst defensive player in baseball – if he’s not, he’s close.

Add it all up, and the A’s have a guy who has to torch the ball when he hits it in order to be a valuable player, and when he’s not driving the ball, he’s the least productive regular in the major leagues. Due to his defensive problems, it’s going to be harder and harder for the A’s to justify penciling him into the line-up if he doesn’t start producing better results when he makes contact. The A’s are surprising a lot of people by standing at 16-10 through 26 games, but they’re not going to be able to stick with Cust killing them in the field and at the plate forever.