Archive for Jair Jurrjens

Derek Lowe hasn’t lived up to his four-year, $60 million contract so far, but his steady contributions have been valuable to a deep Braves rotation.

Lowe is one of the more predictably effective pitchers. His walk and strikeout rates tend to hover around the league average, while he doesn’t allow many home runs and induces grounders at a phenomenal rate. From 2007 through this season, Lowe’s 60% groundball rate ranks second in the majors to teammate Tim Hudson’s 61.5%.

Despite being 38 years old and having about $21 million remaining on his contract through 2012, Lowe is reportedly on a couple of contending teams’ radars. The idea of Atlanta trading Lowe while itself being a legitimate playoff contender is interesting. Rare are the times when arguably the best starting pitcher available comes from a team thick in the playoff hunt. But for a team deep with starting pitching, a potential deal also hits on the notion of trading from depth and maximizing returns to fix deficiencies elsewhere.

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Tim Hudson made his long awaited return from Tommy John surgery late Monday night. While he showed some rust, he performed OK over all — allowing two earned runs over 5.1 innings with 6 hits allowed and three walks, while striking out five.

Here’s his movement graph. Pitch F/x apparently forgot the scouting report on Huddy, so rather than then taking the time to manually reclassify his pitches, I just broke them down by velocity.

Still a very nice sinker, splitter, cutter and curve for Hudson. He averaged about 89 MPH with his fastball and hit up to 92, so the early returns are encouraging. Thank goodness for Dr. Jobe’s miraculous invention. But now what do the Braves do with their rotation? With Hudson’s return, the Braves now have six good starting pitchers in their rotation, an embarrassment of riches. Something has to give.

Javier Vazquez 181.1 IP – 3.18 ERA – 2.83 FIP – 48.4 RAR – 5.4 WAR
Jair Jurrjens 171 IP – 2.89 ERA – 3.75 FIP – 29.3 RAR – 3.1 WAR
Derek Lowe 164.1 IP – 4.38 ERA – 3.73 FIP – 28.6 RAR – 3 WAR
Thomas Hanson 89.2 IP – 3.15 ERA – 3.98 FIP – 13.1 RAR – 1.4 WAR
Kenshin Kawakami 142.2 IP – 3.97 ERA – 4.30 FIP – 16.3 RAR – 1.7 WAR

The odd man out is reportedly Kenshin Kawakami, who was signed as a free agent from Japan over the winter and has proven to be about what the Braves had hoped: a little better than league average. Teams would be blessed to have him as their 4th starter, he’s now the Braves’ 6th starter, making him the best swing-man in the biz.

So what do the Braves do with this wonderful problem that they have in the offseason? I know the saying goes that you never have too much pitching, but Hudson has a $12M option for next season. While that’s somewhat tempting given the fact that Huddy may now be as good as new, if the Braves decide to pick it up, that would mean they would be allocating $45M to four pitchers in their rotation. Lowe is guaranteed $15M next year. Vasquez, $11.5M. Kawakami, around $7M. With the presence of two terrific cost-controlled options of Thomas Hanson and Jair Jurrjens and the Braves in desperate need of some offense, Hudson is probably headed for free agency this year. Millions of dollars are on the line for Hudson, with just a few starts remaining.

Over the last week, we’ve been looking at sophomore players in the Major Leagues. Today’s post is looking at the National League East division, which was fairly barren in terms of rookies in 2008 although the Braves organization had its fair share of newbies.

In the past few days, we have looked at the: AL Central, AL West, AL East and NL Central.

Perhaps buoyed by the mass of ever-present media, fielder Daniel Murphy entered 2009 with quite a bit of hype after just 188 at-bats during the ’08 season. Last year, he hit .313/.397/.473 with rates of 12.1 BB% and 21.4 K%. Murphy hit just two homers (.160 ISO) and did not successfully steal a base in two attempts. Perhaps the biggest negative with the left-handed hitter is his lack of position. Originally an infielder, Murphy’s penchant for errors led to a move to the outfield, where he spent all of 2008 while in the Majors. This season, he’s split his time between left field and first base. His 2009 line of .250/.324/.362 is below average for both positions, as is his ISO at .112.

Martin Prado bounced between the Majors and triple-A during both the 2006 and 2007 seasons. He spent the majority of the 2008 season with Atlanta and had an above-average offensive season for a utility player by hitting .320/.377/.461 with 18 doubles and three steals in 228 at-bats. His rates were also pretty good at 8.4 BB% and 12.7 K%. This season, the infielder is hitting .277/.344/.445 with 11 doubles and no steals in 119 at-bats. Both his plate rates have improved by a percent or two. The downside, much like with Murphy above, is that Prado has been used mostly at a position that traditionally produces power (third base and first base). If he spent more time at second base – or shortstop – he would have greater value to the Braves, assuming he can play at least average defense at those positions.

Desperate for some outfield help in 2008, the Braves organization ran through a number of outfielders with “fourth outfielder” labels hovering over them and not one of the three players has done much to dispute that impending title. Josh Anderson, Gregor Blanco and Brandon Jones have all seen their playing time with the Braves decrease, even though the club still needs outfield depth. In fact, Anderson was traded out of the organization to Detroit earlier this year. Blanco showed the ability to get on base last season but he did it with almost no power. The 25-year-old outfielder hit .251/.366/.309 with 19 extra base hits and 13 steals in 430 at-bats. This season, he’s spent the majority of the year in triple-A. Jones hit .267/.312/.397 with one homer and a single steal in 116 at-bats. His rates of 5.7 BB% and 24.1 K% suggested more work needed to be done. Like Blanco, Jones has spent most of 2009 in triple-A.

Stolen from the Tigers in a trade after the 2007 season, right-hander Jair Jurrjens has been a very good pitcher for the Braves. Jurrjens posted a 3.68 ERA (3.59 FIP) in 2008 with 188 hits allowed in 188.1 innings of work. He also had a walk rate of 3.35 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.64 K/9. His ground-ball rate was 51.2%. This season, Jurrjens has allowed 81 hits in 87.1 innings of work, along with an ERA of 2.89 (3.52 FIP). His rates are very similar, although his ground-ball percentage has dropped to just 39.5%.

Reliever Manny Acosta allowed 48 hits in 53.0 IP but posted disappointing rates of 4.42 BB/9 and 5.26 K/9. He’s pitching in just nine MLB games in 2009 with eight hits allowed in 11.2 innings. He’s also shown similar rates, which is disappointing considering his fastball averages out at 93 mph.

Emilio Bonifacio had a very nice first month of the 2009 season, but that has been sandwiched by about six months worth of below-average play. Based on his offensive skill set, the 24-year-old infielder is best suited to play second base, but he’s spent the majority of the 2009 season at third base, where he has hit .241/.288/.292, which is well-below-average for a third base (and even for a second baseman). He’s also stolen just 12 bases in 17 attempts and has a walk rate of 6.5 BB%. Last year, Bonifacio hit .243/.296/.337 with seven steals in 11 attempts. Sadly, he’s not even a stellar defensive player.

John Baker, 28, toiled in the minors for seven seasons before earning his shot in 2008 and he hit .299/.392/.447 with five homers in 197 at-bats. The catcher also showed OK patience at the plate with a walk rate of 13.2 BB%. This season, Baker has struggled to hit for average with a line of .245/.335/.411 and six homers in 163 at-bats. His ground-ball rate is probably a little high at 56.3% for a plodding catcher.

The ground-ball pitcher that is Chris Volstad had a very nice debut season in 2008. The right-hander quieted the critics who said he was not ready by posting a 2.88 ERA (3.82 FIP) with 76 hits in 84.1 innings of work. He posted a walk rate of 3.84 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 5.55 K/9 but allowed just three homers (0.32 HR/9). It’s the missing quality sinker that has hurt Volstad in 2009. He’s given up 88 hits in 89.1 innings, including 14 long balls (1.41 HR/9).

Southpaw John Lannan, 24, doesn’t get a lot of love even though he keeps putting up the results – and for a bad team. He had a 3.91 ERA (4.79 FIP) while allowing 172 hits in 182 innings in 2008. The left-hander also had rates of 3.56 BB/9 and 5.79, so he puts the ball in play a lot. In 2009, Lannan has a 3.38 ERA (5.09 FIP) with 82 hits allowed in 85.1 innings. His walk rate is very similar, but the strikeout has dropped to 4.43 BB/9.

Collin Balester, 23, has to be pretty disappointed. The right-hander made 15 starts in 2008 and allowed 92 hits in 80 innings of work. He also posted rates of 3.15 BB/9 and 5.63 K/9. Like Lannan, Balester also struggled with home runs and he allowed 12 homers (1.35 HR/9). This season, he’s made all 14 of his starts in triple-A, where he has a 4.00 ERA.

Steven Shell and Charlie Manning both pitched a good chunk of innings for the club in 2008, but neither player has seen much MLB playing time in 2008. The better of the two pitchers, Shell is a former Angels prospect, posted a 2.16 ERA in exactly 50 innings. He also had a 7.38 K/9 rate. In 2009, though, the right-hander fell apart. He appeared in four games for the Nationals before moving on to the Seattle organization, where he has a 7.90 ERA in 12 games. Manning appeared in 57 games in 2008 with an ERA of 5.17. He has yet to pitch in the Majors in ’09.

The Philadelphia Phillies organization did not distribute significant playing time to any rookies in 2008.

Last week I took a look at how the members of Atlanta’s former big three—Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine—are currently performing. It only made sense to now take a look at Atlanta’s newest incarnation of a big three. The quotes in the title do not imply sarcasm but rather denote the large dropoff in talent from one group to another.

With Smoltz now out for the season, Mike Hampton pulling a Hampton (what we can now call DL-stints for pitchers) and Chuck James pitching in AAA, Bobby Cox has had to get creative with his rotation. These three have seemingly been replaced with Jair Jurrjens, JoJo Reyes, and Jorge Campillo. So, how are the newbies faring?

Jair Jurrjens
13 GS, 6-3, 3.77 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 1.44 WHIP
76.1 IP, 78 H, 32 BB, 55 K
73.3% LOB, .313 BABIP, 1.72 K/BB
FA: 91.5mph/64.5%, SL: 80.4mph/9.3%, CH: 83.9mph/26.2%
1st 10 GS: 61.1 IP, 50 H, 18 ER, 22 BB, 45 K, +0.884 WPA, 31 RS (3.1/gm)
Last 3 GS: 15.0 IP, 28 H, 14 ER, 10 BB, 10 K, -0.764 WPA, 18 RS (6.0/gm)

Essentially, Jurrjens pitched his best when the Braves weren’t scoring for him but lately, with plenty of runs, he must have felt bad for the oppositions and let them score to make it more competitive.

JoJo Reyes
8 GS, 2-4, 4.80 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.42 WHIP
45 IP, 48 H, 16 BB, 42 K
68.9% LOB, .331 BABIP, 2.63 K/BB
FA: 91.3mph/63.8%, SL: 81.5mph/12.5%, CU: 72.7mph/8.6%, CH: 82.3mph/15.2%
5/28 @ Mil: 7 IP, 2 H, ER, 3 BB, 9 K, 1.29 ERA, 0.71 WHIP
All Others: 38 IP, 46 H, 23 ER, 13 BB, 33 K, 5.45 ERA, 1.55 WHIP

Reyes throws virtually the same amount of fastballs and sliders as Jurrjens, but splits the rest between a curve and changeup. He has a nice K/BB ratio but he lets many on base and hasn’t been the best at preventing them from scoring.

Jorge Campillo
5 GS (18 GP), 2-0, 2.17 ERA, 2.77 FIP, 1.03 WHIP
45.2 IP, 38 H, 9 BB, 38 K
74.8% LOB, .278 BABIP, 4.22 K/BB
FA: 86.6mph/34.5%, SL: 81.7mph/19.2%, CU: 71.0mph/12.4%, CH: 75.3mph/27.3%
As SP: 5 G, 24.1 IP, 22 H, 8 ER, 4 BB, 21 K, 2.96 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, .663 OPS
As RP: 13 G, 21.1 IP, 16 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 17 K, 1.27 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .516 OPS

Almost 30 years old and still considered a rookie, Campillo pitched so well out of the pen he earned a spot in the rotation. Since joining he really has not disappointed. Campillo is the definitive example of a “comfortable 0-fer” as hitters will not be dominated by his pitching but could very easily find themselves 0-4 at the end of the day, wondering how this guy stopped them.

OK, so Jurrjens/Reyes/Campillo isn’t anywhere near Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine… but if Braves fans want to be discussing their Divisional Series opponents in October, you better believe these three will need to at the very least channel and sustain Steve Avery/John Burkett/Denny Neagle for the rest of the season.