Archive for jason heyward

Jason Heyward had a pretty disappointing regular season in 2016 after signing a contract worth nearly $200 million the previous offseason. Heyward altered his swing in the spring, as he has frequently throughout his career, then hurt his wrist at the very beginning of the season. How much either or both deserves blame isn’t clear, but what we do know is the results were disastrous. In the last 100 years, there have been 4,578 outfielders to qualify for the batting title. Heyward’s 72 wRC+ ranks 4,511th among that group. In other words, we’re dealing with a pretty rare situation. To find out how rare — and what the implications of it might be — I went out searching for the most Heyward-like seasons in history.

To look for players like Heyward, we don’t have to understand his precise approach to the game, we merely have to run some stats over on our leaderboards. I started by looking at qualified outfielders from the last 100 years who’d recorded a single-season wRC+ below 80. I eliminated strike years and players with less than a full season of experience prior to the poor-hitting year. Because Jason Hyeward is a good defender, I looked only at players who were worth at least 10 runs above average on defense and whose offense wasn’t so bad as to render them worth less than a win overall. To keep things in the same ballpark age-wise, I looked at player seasons between the ages of 25 and 29. (Heyward just finished his age-26 season.)

I found five Heywards.

So these are some of the more bizarre player seasons in history. For a player to be this bad, he needs to be good enough to earn the confidence of the manager and organization. He also needs to be very poor on offense, sufficiently good defense to make up for the terrible offense, and to do it in the outfield, where the positional adjustment is either negative (like in the corners) or just slightly positive (like in center field). It’s easier to do this as a catcher or shortstop, where the positional adjustment gives you a bunch of runs right off the bat, but more difficult in the outfield.

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The biggest play of last night’s Game Six was a defensive one, but not in a positive manner: a miscommunication between Tyler Naquin in center field and Lonnie Chisenhall in right failed to result in a catch. Two runs scored for Chicago, and the Cubs took a 3-0 lead in just the first inning. The biggest strategic decision, meanwhile, concerned the use of Aroldis Chapman by Joe Maddon, as Chicago’s manager went to his closer in the seventh inning of a 7-2 game. It’s hard to discount the the implications either of Cleveland’s defensive misplay or Maddon’s bullpen management on the outcome of this World Series.

However, Game Six of the World Series also featured an unimportant strategic decision that facilitated some unimportant defensive plays. Even though he scored no runs and recorded zero hits, the decision to start Jason Heyward was likely worth several runs for the Cubs. And even if those runs didn’t ultimately represent the difference between a win and a loss, Heyward’s presence in the game nevertheless revealed how an offensively struggling but defensively forceful player can impact a result.

In the fourth inning of last night’s contest, right after Mike Napoli singled in Jason Kipnis to make the game 7-1, the Chicago Cubs possessed a 94.8% chance of victory. The leverage index was a fairly low 0.47, so even a positive result for Cleveland was unlikely to influence the game greatly. Facing Jake Arrieta, Jose Ramirez struck a ball that lands for a hit 56.8% of the time and goes for extra bases 20% of the time.

Here’s the end of that play:

At first glance, the play appears challenging for Heyward but hardly impossible. As mentioned above, batted balls with similar exit velocity and launch angles were caught around 43% of the time. Nearly half, in other words. What that figure doesn’t account for, however, is Heyward’s position at the start of the play relative to the location of the ball in the field. We can go a little further with the Statcast data.

Jason Heyward’s catch in 4th. Ball off Jose Ramirez’s bat = 97.9 mph. Hang time = 2.9 seconds. Distance = 35 feet. H/t: @mike_petriello

— Dan Hayes (@CSNHayes) November 2, 2016

By doing a few calculations, we can determine that, if he were running in a 40-yard dash in this case, Heyward would have recorded a time of roughly 9.9 seconds, which is really slow for a 40-yard dash. Of course, when Jason Heyward hears the ball off the bat, he doesn’t simply get to sprint straight forward in a line. He has no idea in which direction he might have to run — backwards, forwards, left, right. He decides where to run by looking at a small white object that begins its trajectory roughly 300 feet away while also traveling at 98 mph.

We rarely see an outfielder’s first step when watching the game because both our own eyes and also the cameras themsleves are focused on the batter-pitcher matchup. Heyward is very good at making quick decisions, though: the first step on his acrobatic play near the wall in Game Five occurred within 0.17 seconds.

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There are few who doubt that, after finishing up his sixth season in Major League Baseball, Jason Heyward is a good player. Up for debate is precisely how good Jason Heyward has been during his career, and more importantly for whichever teams signs him this winter, how good Heyward will be moving forward. Attempting to measure defense with advanced statistics like UZR and DRS has its critics, and attempting to place a value on it can be difficult. Heyward has been an above average offensive player, incredible on defense, and heading into free agency a few months after turning 26 years old, provides few realistic players for comparison. Heyward will get paid. How much will he be worth?

Heyward’s main drawback, perhaps only drawback, as a player seeking more than $100 million is his lack of power. He hit 27 home runs in 2012, but recorded just 13 of them this year along with an isolated slugging percentage of .146, essentially league average. Combining average power with a low strikeout rate (14.8% in 2015) and a solid walk rate (9.2%), Heyward’s wRC+ of 121 puts him in the upper third in terms of the league’s hitters. Adding in 23 steals on 26 attempts and the rest of his baserunning, Heyward’s 22 runs above average on offense placed him within the top quarter of qualified hitters. Lacking in top shelf power, Heyward still provided solid numbers on offense, and after a disappointing start with he Cardinals, he hit .306/.375/.455 with a wRC+ of 130 from the beginning of May to the end of the season.

The lack of power does prevent easy comparison to most free agent mega-deals. The names brought up most recently with regard to Heyward are Jacoby Ellsbury, who got seven years and $153 million from the New York Yankees two years ago, and Carl Crawford, who received seven years and $142 million from the Boston Red Sox five years ago. While those deals might no look great now, age is a major factor. When Ellsbury was Heyward’s age, he had just completed his second full season. Crawford debuted young, but due to a team-friendly contract, he did not become a free agent until after his age-28 season, three years older than Heyward. Ellsbury, now 32, has been worth 21 wins since turning 26 while Crawford, 34, has been worth 22 wins over the last eight seasons. Solid production, that, despite some disappointing seasons mixed in.

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We all know, entering the season, that the WAR leaderboards in the early part of the year reveal less about the players contained within them than those same WAR leaderboards at the end of the year. That knowledge doesn’t stop me, personally, from compulsively looking at the leaderboards just as soon as the season begins. Remember Freddy Galvis? He was tied for the National League lead among shortstops with 0.9 WAR — and “on pace” for a great season at the end of April. A month of replacement-level production has placed him considerably lower among major-league shortstops. What about Devon Travis? At the end of April, his 1.4 WAR was sixth in all of baseball. Unfortunately, an injury slowed him down and he has been unable to add to his impressive April totals.

Now that we have reached the second week of June, the leaderboards begin to look a little more familiar. Mike Trout, Josh Donaldson, and Paul Goldschmidt have continued great runs of production. Bryce Harper has emerged and Jason Kipnis has returned to form after a poor 2014 season. There are still surprises at this point, though. The production of Harper and Kipnis was not expected to reach these levels, Joc Pederson has been far more impressive than anyone could have expected, and Dee Gordon is still slapping and running his way into the top ten. We will see more changes as the season wears on, providing a more accurate depiction of player value as more games are played. However, since we are all looking at the leaderboards now, it might be worthwhile to point out a few anomalies in WAR totals due to the small sample sizes we have with defensive statistics.

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Every year the dreaded sophomore curse rears its ugly head. Not even star shorstop Troy Tulowitzki of the Colorado Rockies was immune from its influence. His sophomore season was the only time in his five-year career that he dipped below 5.6 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) – and it was a big dip to 0.9 WAR.

With the 2012 Major League Baseball season about to begin there is understandably a lot of excitement over some of the 2011 rookies who appear poised for a true breakout year. Let’s try and sift through some of the names and see who might be in for a big year and who might be in for a big… disappointment.

Henderson Alvarez, RHP, Toronto: I have to admit that I thought Toronto was crazy for calling up Alvarez when they did in 2011 but he did not implode as expected. The 21-year-old hurler made a successful jump to the Majors with just 88.0 innings of experience above A-ball thanks to a fastball that can tickle the upper 90s while inducing a plethora of ground balls. Alvarez survived his first tour of duty in The Show with basically a two-pitch mix (fastball/changeup) and he’s working hard to improve his slider. If he can get the third pitch working, while also improve upon his command within the strike zone, Alvarez could see a big jump in his strikeout rate.

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It’s obvious that Jason Heyward’s .277/.393/.456 debut was impressive, especially since it came at the tender age of 20. When it comes to his walks, it was just a hair short of record-breaking. His 91 walks last year were the the third most walks in a debut since 1960. Heyward will obviously be a boon to his team if only for that great walk rate, but are there are any other players that broke in with similar plate discipline stats that can show us a similar debut and can therefore tell us something about Heyward’s possible future development path? Or is Heyward unique?

Well, there is a player in the news right now that might just be somewhat comparable: Jeff Bagwell. Bagwell may have to wait to get into the Hall, but he debuted with 75 walks at 23 years old. That’s the most walks in a rookie season put forward by a player younger than 23 since 1985 (other than Heyward’s of course). We also know, with the benefit of hindsight, that walks would feature greatly in his game going forward, as he steadily upped his contribution in the category from 75 to a peak of 149 in 1999. His plate discipline came well-formed and was refined over time, and the similarity seems to suggest that Heyward will have many .400+ OBPs – Bagwell had seven, with two more over .397.

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Note: The title of this post makes almost no sense in the context of what follows — and, yet, it feels so right.

If you’re the sort of person who has to “work tomorrow,” then maybe tonight’s game isn’t for you.

If that’s the case, however, you might wanna ask your doctor if you’re suffering from a really serious condition known as Being a Giant Puss.

I’m just saying.

Atlanta at Arizona | Monday, June 07 | 9:40pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Braves: Derek Lowe (NERD: 5)
71.0 IP, 5.32 K/9, 3.80 BB/9, .288 BABIP, 59.1% GB, 9.8% HR/FB, 4.21 xFIP

D-Backs: Dan Haren (NERD: 10)
82.0 IP, 9.11 K/9, 1.65 BB/9, .342 BABIP, 43.9% GB, 17.0% HR/FB, 3.22 xFIP

A Question You’re Asking, Stat
Carson, fess up: did you just pick this game because it came first alphabetically?

The Answer I’m Answering
That’s ridiculous. I don’t even know the alphabet.

Watch For
• Dan Haren. Haren is of supreme interest to the baseball nerd at the moment. While posting an xFIP (3.22) completely in line with his performances of the previous two seasons, the righty currently sports his highest ERA (4.83) since 2003. If you like to watch regression in action — and because you’re a nerd, you almost definitely do like to watch regression in action — you can watch it tonight in Phoenix.
• Jason Heyward. I says to my friend Danny the other day, I says: “Danny, would you watch an Atlanta Braves game just to see Jason Heyward?” As he was currently drinking like his 17th beer, his answer was mostly a kinda frightening combination of grunts and snarls, but what I gathered from him is that, yes, he would do that kind of thing.
• Kelly Johnson. True or false: He’s better than Bad News Bear Kelly Leak. You decide, America!

Did You Know That
Dan Haren’s strikeout rate has increased literally every year he’s been in the league? Check it, 2003-10: 5.33, 6.26, 6.76, 7.10, 7.76, 8.58, 8.75, and this year’s 9.11. If my calculations are correct, Dan Haren will strike out more batters than is even possible to face in the year 2017.

Also, Did You Know That
Jason Heyward is like 60 or a hundred feet tall? At least that’s how big he looks from the comfort of my own living room.

If I Had My Druthers
• Dan Haren would strike out all 27 Braves in order.
• Jason Heyward would still somehow manage four homers.
• My wife wouldn’t make us (i.e. me and her) shop at Whole Foods all the time. (No, not relevant at all to the present game, but still a druther I’d really like to have.)

Yesterday, we took a look at the top rookie performers in the American League, led by Detroit’s Austin Jackson. Today, we’re breaking down the key first year players in the National League through the first six weeks of the 2010 MLB season. It’s a pretty impressive list already, and we still haven’t seen the likes of Washington’s Stephen Strasburg or Florida’s Mike Stanton.

Rookies were considered based on a minimum of 50 plate appearances, four starts, or 10 relief appearances. Last year’s NL Rookie of the Year award went to Florida’s Chris Coghlan, followed by J.A. Happ (Philadelphia) and Tommy Hanson (Atlanta).

Tyler Colvin | OF | Chicago: The former No. 1 draft pick is having a nice debut despite being a surprise addition to the ’10 club. Colvin has shown more patience in the Majors (10.2 BB%) than in the minors, which has helped his overall numbers. He currently has a triple-slash line of .275/.345/.608 and an ISO rate of .333, which has been helped by eight extra base hits out of his 14 total base knocks. The strikeout rate is a worrisome at 29.4 K%.

Ike Davis | 1B | New York: Davis is in the Majors a lot sooner than a lot of people expect but he’s held his own with a .415 wOBA in 18 games. Overall, he has a triple-slash line of .316/.437/.544. Davis has shown a willingness to take a walk with a rate of 18.3 BB%. He’s also done his fair share of swinging and missing with a strikeout rate of 29.8%. The line-drive rate of 31.7% is pretty darn impressive for young Ike.

Ian Desmond | SS | Washington: Desmond is holding his own so far this season as the Nationals’ starting shortstop. He has a triple-slash line of .264/.323/.462, and his wOBA sits at .347. Along with three homers, the shortstop has added three stolen bases. Desmond’s strikeout rate is high (23.1 K%) for someone with modest power. He’s been solid so far with the glove.

Alcides Escobar | SS | Milwaukee: Escobar is an interesting rookie. He’s basically known for hitting for a hollow batting average with good speed and defense. So far in 2010, Escobar has a .222 average, a career-high .141 ISO rate, just one steal attempt in 27 games, and a modest defensive showing. After nabbing 46 bags in ’09, it’s borderline criminal that the young infielder isn’t utilizing his speed better.

David Freese | 3B | St. Louis: I won’t go too in-depth on Freese here, as I looked at him last week. Freese is currently hitting .320/.393/.476 with a .387 wOBA in 29 games. His power output has been modest for the hot corner (.155 ISO) but he has a history of posting strong batting averages in the minors.

Jason Heyward | RF | Atlanta: Heyward had his ups and his downs during the first month of the season, which is to be expected for a 20-year-old prospect making his MLB debut. What’s impressive is how quickly he’s made adjustments. Heyward currently has a .436 wOBA and his triple-slash line is up to .291/.410/.616 with eight homers (.326 ISO) in 105 at-bats. He does have some work to do defensively.

Tommy Manzella | SS | Houston: Manzella was holding his own for a little while in April but his triple-slash line has dipped to just .195/.235/.260 in 83 at-bats. His approach at the plate is clearly an issue, as he has a walk rate of just 2.4% and his strikeout rate has skyrocketed to 32.5%, which is far too high for a player with a .065 ISO rate. On the plus side, he’s played OK defense.

Gaby Sanchez | 1B | Florida: Sanchez, 26, is quietly going about his rookie season. The first baseman has a solid triple-slash line of .272/.368/.424 in 106 at-bats. His wOBA sits at .352. Sanchez has done a solid job of getting on base with a walk rate of 12.3%, which is right up there with his minor league numbers. He’s done OK with the strikeout rate at 20.7%, but his power is below average for a first baseman, so it would be better off around the 15% range.

Jaime Garcia | LHP | St. Louis: Garcia is another player that was highlighted recently. The lefty mixes four pitches well (fastball, cutter, curve, change) and he currently has positive pitch values on all four of his offerings. Along with his 89-91 mph fastball velocity, Garcia gets excellent sink on his heater and he currently has a ground-ball rate of 62%, which is second in the Majors to Atlanta’s Tim Hudson. He needs to make sure that he continues to keep his control in check.

Mike Leake | RHP | Cincinnati: Leake cannot boast a +60% ground-ball rate like Garcia, but his is still above average at 56.0%. The right-hander has continued to improve as the season has gone on. Currently, he’s given up just 32 hits in 40.2 innings of work and his xFIP sits at 4.11. He’s done a nice job of tossing a five-pitch mix at the National League hitters, which helps make up for his average fastball velocity.

Jenrry Mejia | RHP | New York: I cannot adequately express how disappointing it is to see Mejia being misused in New York. The 20-year-old right-hander has appeared in 15 games out of the bullpen and currently has a 4.61 BB/9 rate, as well as a strikeout rate of just 5.93 K/9. He’s shown a respectable fastball-slider combo, but his change-up (along with his overall control) is not getting any better by pitching a total of 13.2 innings in just under six weeks.

Jon Niese | LHP | New York: Niese has not received a ton of attention from traditional rookie watchers, likely due to his one win in six games. We all know there is much more to a pitcher’s game than wins (Less just ban the stat for individuals). The lefty has a solid strikeout rate at 7.46 K/9 and his control has improved significantly (3.09 BB/9) over his ’09 debut. Niese’s ground-ball rate is just shy of 50%. The base knock has been an issue for him as he’s allowed 46 hits in 35.0 innings.

The Next Big Call-up: Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington
2010 First Half Star: Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta
2010 Second Half Star: Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta
2010 Overall NL ROY: Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta

General Manager: Frank Wren
Farm Director: Kurt Kemp
Scouting Director: Tony DeMacio

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The Braves organization is not churning out the pitching prospects like it once did, but there are some interesting power arms in the system. The club has had some problems with injuries amongst its young pitchers, especially recent draft picks, which is a little worrisome. The two bats at the top of the Top 10 list have a chance to be impact bats – especially Heyward. He could be an absolute monster at the plate. Many of the prospects on the Top 10 list are still a few years away.

1. Jason Heyward, OF, Triple-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 1st round – Georgia HS
MLB ETA: Early-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

I loved Heyward on draft day in ’07 and I like him even more now. Despite being drafted out of high school, he’s flown through the system and reached triple-A in ’09 at the age of 20. He began the year in high-A where he hit .296/.369/.519 in 189 at-bats. Heyward then moved up to double-A and produced a line of .352/.446/.611 in 162 at-bats. His season ended with three games in triple-A. The outfielder showed outstanding power with an ISO rate of .222 in high-A and .259 in double-A. He also displayed the potential to provide five to 10 steals and Heyward had a double-digit walk rate, which topped out at 14.7% in double-A. His BB/K rate of 1.47 at that same level was outstanding. There are few holes in his game. Heyward’s durability is currently surrounded by question marks after be was dogged by minor injuries during the season and in the Arizona Fall League.

2. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Double-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 2nd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Freeman’s season began very well in high-A when he .302/.394/.447 in 255 at-bats. The first baseman found the going much tougher in double-A and he hit just .248/.308/.342 in 149 at-bats. His power also dropped with his ISO rate going from .145 to .094. Even at its peak last season, Freeman’s power output was below-average for an impact first baseman, but he projects as a 20-homer guy — not a true slugger. One reason for his poor numbers in double-A was the drop in BABIP, from .341 to .273; he was also playing with a hand injury. On the positive side, his strikeout rate actually dropped from 16.1 to 12.8%, so he wasn’t completely over-matched. He’ll head back to double-A in 2010.

3. Julio Teheran, RHP, Low-A
DOB: January 1991 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Colombia)
MLB ETA: Early-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

There is no question that Teheran has the stuff to be a dominating starter in the Majors, but his durability is in question, as he’s been slowed by shoulder soreness. He made just 14 starts in ’09 and he split the year between rookie ball and low-A ball. At the senior level, Teheran posted a 3.68 FIP and allowed 42 hits in 37.2 innings. He showed good control with a walk rate of 2.63 BB/9 but his strikeout rate was just 6.69 K/9. The right-hander has a good change-up but his breaking ball still needs work, which is one of the reasons for the low strikeout rate. Teheran is loaded with potential but he’s just 18 years old and will likely develop slowly, especially with the organization being cautious with his health.

4. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Short-Season
DOB: November 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph, plus curveball, change-up

Vizcaino had a very impressive season as a teenager in short-season ball. He missed a lot of bats with a strikeout rate of 11.06 K/9 and he kept the walks in check at 3.19 BB/9. In 42.1 innings, Vizcaino allowed just 34 hits and two homers (0.43 HR/9). His ground-ball rate improved 10% over his debut season in ’08 to 48%, which is a positive trend that will hopefully continue in 2010. If he reaches his potential, Vizcaino has the stuff to be a front-line starter… but he’s also a ways away from the Majors. He was the key player acquired recently in the Javier Vazquez deal with the Yankees.

5. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: May 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Wallace State CC
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Kimbrel has flown through the system since signing in ’08. The right-handed reliever has posted outstanding strikeout rates throughout the minors, including 17.10 K/9 in 20.0 low-A innings and 15.38 K/9 in 26.1 high-A innings, both in 2009. His control, though, has been more spotty. Kimbrel posted a walk rate of 2.70 BB/9 in low-A but it rose to 9.57 BB/9 in high-A. He also pitched 11.2 innings in double-A and walked seven batters with 17 Ks. Overall on the year, he allowed 30 hits, 45 walks and struck out 103 batters in 60.0 innings. Kimbrel needs to sharpen his control before reaching the Majors, but he has closer potential with a blazing fastball and good slider.

6. Randall Delgado, RHP, Low-A
DOB: February 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Panama)
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-95 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Another good arm, Delgado proved his durability in ’09 by making 25 starts in low-A ball. He allowed 123 hits in 124.0 innings and posted a FIP of 3.20. He also showed a consistent ability to miss bats with his good fastball and he posted a strikeout rate of 10.23 K/9. His control was OK, especially given his experience level, and he had a walk rate of 3.56 BB/9. Delgado also did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park (0.65 HR/9). He was particularly effective against left-handed hitters, who managed to produce an average of just .225 against him. He also posted a strikeout rate of 10.92 K/9 against them, compared to 8.87 K/9 against right-handed batters.

7. Ezekiel Spruill, RHP, Low-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Georgia HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Spruill had a nice first season out of rookie ball with a 3.37 FIP in low-A. He was a little too hittable, though, and he allowed 120 hits in 116.0 innings. Spruill is always around the strike zone, though, and the hitters in the low minors tend to be free swingers. He showed outstanding control with a walk rate of 1.86 BB/9. The right-hander backed that up with a strikeout rate of 7.37 K/9. He also posted an outstanding ground-ball rate just shy of 57% on the year. Spruill’s stuff is more solid than electric and he projects to be a No. 3 starter in the Majors.

8. Christian Bethancourt, C, Rookie
DOB: September 1991 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Panama)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Bethancourt had a solid debut season in the low minors. In rookie ball, he hit .275/.340/.443 in 166 at-bats. The right-handed hitter did struggle against left-handed pitchers and he posted an OPS of just .577. For a teenager, Bethancourt showed a good eye at the plate and intriguing raw power. He’s known as a good leader behind the plate and he also has promising arm strength, as he threw out 30% of base stealers in ’09. He’ll likely move up to low-A in 2010, where he’ll be one of the youngest players in the league.

9. Cody Johnson, OF, High-A
DOB: August 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2006 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

People seem to either love or hate Johnson as a prospect. Just 21, he slugged 32 homers last year, and has gone deep 58 times over the last two seasons. However, his strikeout rate actually rose from his 37.8% mark in ’08 to 40.6% in ’09 as he moved up from low-A to high-A. On the plus side, his walk rate also rose, from 7.9% to 13.2%. Johnson will need to tone down his swing if he’s going to succeed even in double-A, but he’d still have above-average power if he swung with one hand tied behind his back. With a .242 batting average in high-A, he’ll likely struggle to hit even .220 in 2010 if he doesn’t make some adjustments. At this point, he’s a long shot to be an impact player in the Majors but he’s fun to follow.

10. Adam Milligan, OF, High-A
DOB: March 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 6th round – Walters State CC
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Milligan did not get into game action after signing in ’08 so ’09 represented his debut season. The outfielder had an outstanding season while spending the majority of the season in low-A where he hit .345/.393/.589 in 197 at-bats. He also posted an ISO of .244 but he was raw on the base paths and got caught five times in nine attempts. The left-handed hitter did OK against southpaws, but he still posted much better numbers against right-handers (.870 vs 1.013 OPS on the year). His walk rate was low at 5.7% but his strikeout rate was OK at 21.8% given his power output. Milligan received a taste of High-A ball and he should return there in 2010. With just 256 pro at-bats, we still don’t no exactly what this intriguing prospect has to offer.

Up Next: Tampa Bay Rays

The Arizona Fall League rosters were announced by Major League Baseball last week. The league allows up-and-coming prospects (usually from high-A and double-A levels, as well as recent high draft picks) to continue honing their skills away from the fall instructional leagues held by each organization. Play will begin in early October and run until late November with the six teams – each one made up of five organizations’ players – continually facing each other.

Over the next couple of weeks, we’ll take a look at some of the more interesting names on each team. The rosters that were recently released are preliminary rosters and some players will be added, while others could be removed. Last Monday, we took a look at the Phoenix Desert Dogs. Tuesday, we had a gander at the Scottsdale Scorpions roster and on Wednesday we viewed the Mesa Solar Sox roster. Yesterday, we looked at the Peoria Javelinas roster and today we’re viewing the Peoria Saguaros.

The Peoria Saguaros (Click HERE for the entire roster)
Atlanta, San Diego, Houston, Cleveland, Cincinnati

Craig Kimbrel | RHP | Atlanta
Kimbrel was a busy man in 2009, making stops at four levels for Atlanta, so the AFL will be his fifth of the year. Combined in 2009, the reliever allowed 30 hits in 60 innings pitched. He also struck out 103 batters and walked 45. Despite his minor-league dominance, the lack of control is going to be an issue in the Majors so he has some work to do.

Chia-Jen Lo | RHP | Houston
Lo had a similar season to Kimbrel, although he pitched at just two levels. He allowed 40 hits in 64.1 innings of work with 75 strikeouts and 33 walks. His walk rate of 4.62 in double-A is too high but this was just his first year in North America after signing out of Taiwan last year.

Mike Minor | LHP | Atlanta
A 2009 first round draft pick, Minor was a bit of a reach for Atlanta’s first selection, but the club needs some upper-level pitching depth and the lefty should move quickly. He made four brief starts in pro ball after signing, allowing 10 hits and no walks in 14 innings of work. He also struck out 17 batters.

Jason Castro | C | Houston
It would not be shocking to see Castro behind the dish for Houston by mid-2010. The 2008 first-round pick had a very nice first full season in the minors and spent the last half of the year in double-A. He hit with good power in high-A ball but his ISO dropped from .208 to .092 after his promotion out of the extremely good hitter’s league and park.

Matt McBride | C | Cleveland
The Indians organization is not 100% sure what it has with McBride, who missed most of 2008 with an injury. He creamed high-A pitching but was old for the league. Upon a promotion to double-A, his batting average and on-base percentage plummeted but he still showed good power potential and struck out just 11.8% of the time. His BABIP can be partially blamed for his average.

Yonder Alonso | 1B | Cincinnati
Alonso struggled with injuries in 2009 but still played 28 games in double-A with a triple-slash line of .287/.368/.446. He doesn’t show as much in-game power as some of the other big-time first base prospects, but he’s a better overall hitter than most.

Freddie Freeman | 1B | Atlanta
Freeman, like Alonso, is a not a legit 30 home run hitter, but he has a chance to play good defense and hit .300 a few times with 20 homers. He was too advanced for high-A ball, where he began the year at the age of just 19. He finished up by hitting .248/.308/.342 in 149 double-A at-bats and should head back to Mississippi in 2010.

Lance Zawadzki | SS | San Diego
A fourth-round pick out of a smaller NAIA college in 2007, Zawadzki was selected higher than many expected but he rewarded the organization with a solid 2009 season. He split the year between high-A and double-A and showed more power at the lower level. Overall, he hit 15 homers in just under 500 at-bats. He won’t be a star, but he could be an average regular with 10-12 homers and 10-15 steals.

Jonathan Gaston | OF | Houston
Houston pulled the short straw last winter and ended up with Lancaster as its high-A affiliate. The park is perhaps the best hitter’s park in all of pro ball and Gaston enjoyed his time there immensely. He hit .280/.368/.602 with 35 homers and 119 RBI. His ISO was an incredible .322 but he struck out 31.7% of the time.

Chris Heisey | OF | Cincinnati
Heisey, 24, had a solid season in 2009 and split the year between double-A and triple-A. He has an outside shot of being the Reds’ fourth outfielder in 2010. Combined, Heisey hit 22 homers and stole 20 bases, while hitting more than .300. He is not a surefire bet to keep hitting for that kind of power in the Majors.

Jason Heyward | OF | Atlanta
Heyward could very well end up as the Minor League Baseball Player of the Year. The outfielder spent most of the year as a 19 year old and he started out in high-A and ended the year in triple-A. In between, he smoked double-A pitching and put up a line of .352/.446/.611 with more walks than strikeouts in 162 at-bats. He could be playing regularly in the Majors before his 21st birthday.