Archive for jay jackson

General Manager: Jim Hendry
Farm Director: Oneri Fleita
Scouting Director: Tim Wilken

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

There is definitely some excitement starting to build in the system. There are interesting names at the top of the list, as well as some sleepers sprinkled throughout the system, many of whom did not fit in the Top 10, which is a very nice thing to see for the Cubs. The organization certainly has a lot of depth in the middle infielder, but many of the arms are unproven and, in some cases, rather brittle.

1. Andrew Cashner, RHP, Double-A
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Texas Christian University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-95 mph fastball, slider, curve, change-up

Cashner has been a huge find for the organization. Mainly a reliever in college, the right-hander has proven his durability (and repertoire) as a starter. His 1.50 ERA in high-A certainly looks shiny, but his FIP was 3.18 (still good, just not great). At that level, Cashner allowed just 31 hits in 42.0 innings, while showing average control with a walk rate of 3.21 BB/9. His strikeout rate was respectable at 7.29 K/9. He then moved up to double-A, where he allowed 45 hits in 58.1 innings. Cashner’s walk rate increased (4.17 BB/9) and his strikeout rate dropped (6.33 K/9). On the plus side, his ground-ball rate remained around the 47% mark, and he allowed just one home run all season. Cashner will likely begin 2010 back in double-A, with a shot at contributing in Wrigley Field in the second half of the season.

2. Starlin Castro, SS, Double-A
DOB: March 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

There weren’t many prospects that more helium than Castro in ’09. The shortstop has not stopped hitting since going pro, and he followed up a .300+ debut with another solid offensive performance. Just 19, Castro was pushed from rookie ball to high-A ball and he still hit .302/.340/.391 in 358 at-bats. He also stole 22 bases but was caught 11 times, so he has some work to do on the bases. As well, Castro’s walk rate of just 5.0% was worrisome, but it improved to 8.3% upon a promotion to double-A (111 at-bats). Despite the late-season jump, the shortstop actually showed improvements in his game against better pitching. As mentioned, his walk rate rose, and he also kept his strikeout rate low at 10.8% while hitting .288. Castro was also successful in all six of his stolen base attempts in double-A. Defensively, he has the skill set to remain at shortstop. He’ll likely return to double-A to begin the season, but he’ll probably be the Cubs’ starting shortstop before his 21st birthday.

3. Josh Vitters, 3B, High-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

One of the top prep hitters in the ’07 draft, Vitters has shown a tendency to struggle with each promotion. He hit well during the beginning of the ’09 season in low-A (his second attempt at the level) by hitting .316/.351/.535 in 269 at-bats. He then moved up to high-A ball where he struggled by hitting just .238/.260/.344 in 189 at-bats. The approach to take with Vitters is clear: Don’t throw him any strikes. Keep the pitch off the plate and he’ll get himself out, either by striking out or by hitting a pitcher’s pitch, rather than waiting for something to drive. His walk rate of just 2.6% was a big step back – even from ’08 when he walked just 4.8% of the time in short-season ball. Vitters has shown flashes of having the power needed to remain at third base (.219 ISO in low-A), but that walk rate is going to haunt him at the upper levels of the minors, and it won’t play in the Majors.

4. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Short Season
DOB: November 1990 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Korea)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Castro can no doubt feel someone breathing down his neck; that someone is Lee. In his first taste of pro ball in North America, the Korean prospect hit .330/.399/.420 in 264 at-bats in short-season ball. Just 18 during the season, Lee did very well for his age and the 10.6% walk rate was certainly encouraging, as was the fact that the left-handed hitter kept his strikeout rate below 20% (18.9%). In a small sample size, the middle infielder performed well against both right-handers (.818 OPS) and left-handers (.827 OPS). He doesn’t have much power in his game right now (.091 ISO) but Lee projects to add at least gap power and could eventually grow into a 15 homer guy. Right now, though, he focuses on hitting the ball on the ground and utilizing his speed (63.5% ground-ball rate). Lee stole 25 bases in 33 attempts; if he keeps that up, he could be a real threat on the base paths for the Cubs.

5. Jay Jackson, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: October 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 9th round – Furman University
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, curve, change-up

Jackson has been a solid find for the Cubs and has moved much quicker through the system than expected. The former two-way player spent time in high-A ball where he posted a 2.29 FIP, a walk rate of 0.94 and a strikeout rate of 10.80 in seven starts (38.1 IP). In double-A, Jackson struggled a bit with his control (4.25 BB/9), but he still missed his fair share of bats (8.38 K/9) and limited base runners with just 73 hits allowed in 82.2 innings. Overall on the year, Jackson held left-handed hitters to a .214 average, but he struggled with his control (4.72 BB/9 compared to 1.76 against right-handed batters). Just 22 years of age, Jackson received one triple-A start in ’09 and he should head back there in 2010. He has the makings of a No. 2 or 3 starter.

6. Chris Carpenter, RHP, Double-A
DOB: December 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Kent State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-95 mph fastball, curve, change-up

Plagued by injuries as an amateur, Carpenter has been healthy (knock on wood) as a pro. He made 27 starts over three levels in ’09 and reached double-A. Already 24, the right-hander signed as a senior out of college. He spent the majority of the ’09 season in low-A, where he posted a 3.66 FIP and allowed 55 hits in 73.2 innings. Carpenter struggled with his control a bit and he posted a walk rate of 4.03 BB/9. He also had a solid strikeout rate at 7.33 K/9. Moved up to high-A, he had a 2.16 FIP and allowed just 15 hits in 25.0 innings. Carpenter than headed for double-A, where he had a 3.04 FIP in 32.0 innings and did not allow a homer. He also showed solid walk and strikeout rates. Overall, Carpenter posted a ground-ball rate of 52.7% and limited line drives to just 13.2% on the season. He has the potential to be a solid No. 3 starter if he can stay healthy.

7. Ryan Flaherty, SS, Low-A
DOB: July 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – Vanderbilt University
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Flaherty is in a bit of an uncomfortable position. The former college standout is a shortstop with Castro ahead of him, and Lee behind him. That is one of the reasons why the 23-year-old infielder spent the entire season in low-A ball. The other reason for his status is that he struggled in the first half of the year and really did not hit well until the second half (15 of his 20 homers came after June 1). The left-handed hitter also struggled against southpaws, having hit just .211/.287/.421. As a result, Flaherty could very well be headed for a platoon role, or back-up infielder role. One thing is fairly certain: He won’t be the everyday shortstop in Chicago as long as Castro is around. Flaherty potentially has the power (.194 ISO) to play third base. Overall in ’09, he had a solid season with a triple-slash line of .276/.344/.470 in 485 at-bats.

8. Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP, Short Season
DOB: March 1989 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Korea)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curve, plus change-up

Rhee had an exciting debut in ’08 but Tommy John surgery showed its ugly face and derailed the Korean’s progress. The right-hander returned in ’09 but obviously was not at full strength. Rhee should return to low-A in 2010 and there is hope that his stuff will bounce back to its pre-surgery levels. If all goes well, he has the potential to be a No. 2 starter, but he’s still a long way off.

9. Logan Watkins, 2B, Short Season
DOB: August 1989 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 21st round – Kansas HS
MLB ETA: 40-Man Roster: Options:

Watkins is not as flashy as some of the other middle infielders in the system, but he’s shown a lot of potential in a short period of time. The second baseman has a career .326 batting average after two seasons in the low minors, thanks in part to some high BABIPs. Overall in ’09, he hit .326/.389/.391, with a .368 wOBA, in 279 at-bats. Watkins struck out just 11.1% of the time, while producing a reasonable walk rate of 8.8%. He has little-to-no power, and managed an ISO rate of just .065 in ’09. He has some speed but was caught seven times in 21 attempts. Watkins performs better against right-handed pitchers than southpaws: .831 vs .624 OPS.

10. John Gaub, LHP, Triple-A
DOB: April 1985 Bats: R Throws: L
Signed: 2006 21st round – University of Minnesota
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, slider

The organization may have regretted trading veteran infielder Mark DeRosa to the Indians, but it wasn’t all bad. The club received back three interesting arms in the deal. Gaub is the closest to having a key impact at the MLB level. The left-handed reliever had a dominating season in the minors, even with below-average control (5.34 BB/9 in double-A). At that level, he also allowed just 19 hits in 28.2 innings of work, while also posting a strikeout rate of 12.56 K/9. Moved up to triple-A, Gaub allowed 17 hits in 31.1 innings with a strikeout rate of 11.49 K/9. His control improved a smidgen to 4.60 BB/9. His stuff – especially his fastball velocity – has improved each of the past three seasons. Impressively, he’s equally as effective against left-handed and right-handed hitters (.167 average/12.57 K/9 vs lefties and .175/11.45 vs righties).

Up Next: The Minnesota Twins

This week we’re taking a look at some of the leader boards in double-A and high-A ball. Today, we’ll take a look at the leaders in Strikeouts Per 9 Innings (K/9) and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) among the three double-A leagues: the Eastern League, the Southern League and the Texas League. Unlike the hitters that we took a look at yesterday, the pitching leader boards are littered with legitimate prospects.

10.33- Marc Rzepczynski | LHP | Toronto

If you scan down this leader board, you’ll see that Rzepczynski’s K/9 rate is far and above tops in all of double-A, so it’s easy to understand why the southpaw is currently pitching (well) in Toronto. Along with his ability to miss bats, Rzepczynski is a ground-ball machine with his career ground-ball rate of 64.4%. If he improve his command a bit, watch out.

8.80- Ryan Mullins | LHP | Minnesota

Mullins was left unprotected in last year’s Rule 5 draft and I advocated for a team to take a flyer on the hurler as a potential LOOGY. He passed through the draft untouched, though, and is having another typical Mullins’ season (lots of hits, few walks, good K rate)… save for one key thing. Left-handed batters are creaming the southpaw this season to the tune of a .359 batting average.

8.12- Junichi Tazawa | RHP | Boston

For some reason, we just don’t hear a lot about Tazawa when people are rhyming off Boston’s pitching prospects. The right-hander is very quietly having an impressive first year in North America at the double-A level. The 23-year-old Japanese hurler doesn’t have one dominating pitch, but he has command of four average-to-above-average pitches.

2.64- Marc Rzepczynski | LHP | Toronto

See above.

3.07- Zach McAllister | RHP | New York AL

Like Tazawa above, McAllister is a pitching prospect that does not get a ton of press because nothing about him really jumps off the page. If you look at his statistics and scouting report as a whole, though, you can see that he has the makings of a No. 3 starter, who can provide innings while not hurting himself with too many walks or hits allowed.

3.10- Jeanmar Gomez | RHP | Cleveland

Gomez is one of the fastest rising pitching prospects in baseball, which is good news for Cleveland, an organization that has a reputation for producing pitching prospects with good pitchability but below-average stuff (Jeremy Sowers, David Huff, etc.). Gomez knows how to pitch and he has the repertoire to vault himself into elite prospect status; He should be a solid No. 2 or 3 big-league starter.

3.24- Reidier Gonzalez | RHP | Toronto

Since we’ve already touched on Rzepczynski and his fine minor league numbers, we’ll take a look at his teammate Gonzalez, who is another ground-ball machine but from the right side. Even though he can dial the fastball up to 94 mph on occasion, the Cuba native does not strike out a ton of batters (6.43 K/9). He does, though, have good control and has allowed just four homers this season and 16 in the past four years. The 24-year-old is just 5’9” so his future is probably in the bullpen, although his frame has been durable so far.

8.44- Jay Jackson | RHP | Chicago NL

A two-way player at Furman University, Jackson has really blossomed as a pitcher now that he’s devoted his full-time energies to the role. He’s allowed just 68 hits in 80 innings, while also showing respectable control (3.94 BB/9) and good strikeout numbers, given his experience level.

7.95- Travis Chick | RHP | Los Angeles NL

Chick has bounced around a few organizations, but he’s still just 25 years old, so there is some potential in the right-hander – most likely as a reliever. The former Marlins’ draft pick has been stuck in double-A for four straight seasons but he’s had a few trips up to triple-A, and a brief taste of Major League life (three games with Seattle in 2006).

7.79- Travis Wood | LHP | Cincinnai

The Little Rock, Arkansas native has had a very up-and-down career since being taken out of high school in the second round of the 2005 amateur draft. The southpaw posted a 7.09 ERA in 17 double-A starts last season, but Wood appears to have mastered the league this year with solid strikeout rate, good control and a 1.21 ERA (2.75 FIP).

2.75- Travis Wood | LHP | Cincinnai

See above.

3.28- Justin Souza | RHP | Seattle

Souza was recently traded from Seattle to Oakland for part-time big leaguer Jack Hannahan. The 23-year-old had solid numbers for the Seattle organization but he’s been hit hard in two starts for Oakland’s double-A affiliate. He has the upside of a strike-throwing middle reliever.

3.38- Scott Diamond | LHP | Atlanta

Diamond, a Canadian, has produced two straight good seasons, which is impressive considering the fact that Atlanta signed him as a non-drafted amateur in 2007. His fastball is nothing special, but he knows how to pitch and he has good control. Diamond needs to sharpen his command a bit so he doesn’t leave quite so many pitches over the heart of the plate. He also needs to get right-handers out a little more consistently (.324 average).

3.52- John Ely | RHP | Chicago AL

Ely has had a very consistent, albeit not-so-flashy, season. The right-hander has average stuff so he allows a fair number of hits, but he limits the walks and does a good job of keeping the ball in the park. Ely is also durable, which could make him a solid No. 3 or 4 starter in the Majors.

8.16- Kasey Kiker | LHP | Texas

As you probably know by now, the Texas organization is blessed with pitching prospects and Kiker has advanced through the system extremely quickly. The 21-year-old southpaw has been effective against both left-handed (.192) and right-handed (.229) hitters. One knock on him, though, (aside from his 5’10” frame) is that he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher, which could hurt him at The Ballpark in Arlington.

7.92- Esmil Rogers | RHP | Colorado

Rogers has really emerged this season. The right-hander has improved his walk rate each of the past three seasons to a stellar 1.81 BB/9 in double-A this year. He’s also seen his strikeout rate rise each of the past four seasons to 7.92 K/9 in 2009. Rogers was recently promoted to triple-A.

7.81- Samuel Deduno | RHP | Colorado

Colorado has become a pitching development machine with the likes of Ubaldo Jimenez, Franklin Morales, Rogers, Jhoulys Chacin, and Christian Friedrich, just to name a few. If Deduno can finally cash in on his potential, then the organization’s depth begins to shift from rich to ridiculous. After sitting out all of 2008 with an injury, Deduno, 25, has returned with a new focus, as well as improved control and a better understanding of pitching. He’s missed a lot of bats this season with just 56 hits allowed in 78.1 innings of work, which is impressive considering the league and his lengthy layoff.

2.51- Esmil Rogers | RHP | Colorado
See above.

3.42- Polin Trinidad | LHP | Houston

Houston’s minor league system is far from bursting with prospects, so the emergence of Trinidad over the past two seasons is welcomed. The southpaw does not have electric stuff, but he throws strikes and has some deception in his delivery. He has a good pitcher’s frame, especially now that he’s added some muscle, and projects as a No. 4 starter or middle reliever.

3.50- Tommy Mendoza | RHP | Los Angeles AL

Medonza peaked as a prospect very early on in his career before getting derailed by injury and inconsistencies. The 21-year-old right-hander is having a respectable season, although he’s allowed 100 hits in 97.1 innings of work. His strikeout rate is also just 5.73 K/9, but he’s showing solid control with a rate of 2.31 BB/9.

3.55- Graham Godfrey | RHP | Oakland

Toronto pretty much stole Marco Scutaro away from the Oakland Athletics (one of GM J.P. Ricciardi’s few good trades). The A’s received Godfrey and right-hander Kristian Bell in return for the spark-plug shortstop and former utility player. Godfrey’s first year in the organization in 2008 was underwhelming, but he’s having a nice year this year in double-A and could find his way into a big-league bullpen.

2008 Draft Slot: 19th overall
Top Pick: Andrew Cashner, RHP, Texas Christian University
Best Pick: Jay Jackson, RHP, Furman University (9th round)
Keep an Eye On: Chris Carpenter, RHP, Kent State (3rd round)
Notes: Chris Carpenter has always had the stuff to make scouts drool, but a stream of constant injury concerns caused him to slip every year. He’s been healthy in pro ball so far and has the numbers to prove it, although he needs to be challenged and moved out of low-A. Jay Jackson was a two-way player in college, who has taken to full-time pitching like a fish to water. He’s already in double-A. Andrew Cashner had his greatest success in college as a reliever, but the Cubs have him back in the starting rotation. The results have not been pretty. Cashner can touch 99 mph with the fastball, but his control is not good at all.

2007 Draft Slot: Third overall
Top Pick: Josh Vitters, 3B, California high school
Best Pick: Josh Vitters
Worst Pick: Brandon Guyer, OF, University of Virginia (5th round)
Notes: There were three quality prep third basemen at the top of the 2007 draft and Josh Vitters was the second to go off the board (sandwiched between Mike Moustakas, 2nd overall, and Matt Dominguez, 12th overall). However, he struggled early and has fallen behind the other two. Vitters is making more noise in 2009 with a .355 average and 10 homers, but he’s also a level behind the pack. Luckily it’s a marathon, not a sprint. The Cubs’ second pick, catcher Josh Donaldson, helped land pitcher Rich Harden from the A’s in 2008.

2006 Draft Slot: 13th overall
Top Pick: Tyler Colvin, OF, Clemson University
Best Pick: Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Notre Dame University (Fifth round)
Worst Pick: Tyler Colvin
Notes: Everyone scratched their heads from the moment that the Cubs grabbed Tyler Colvin with the 13th overall pick and now everyone’s bald… no one has stopped scratching. Colvin spent 2008 in double-A and was demoted to high-A to begin 2009. He’s hitting .253 with one home run. The Cubs lacked 2nd to 4th round selections and then spent a boatload of money to sway Jeff Samardzija away from the National Football League. It looks like a smart move, but he may be better off as a reliever. Time will tell.

2009 Draft Slot: 31st overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): College for the most part
MLB Club Need: Second base, Third base, Catcher
Organizational Need: Left-handed pitching, Left field, Right field, First base
Organizational Strength: Third base, Shortstop
Notes: The club does not pick until 31st overall, so it’s almost impossible to know who is going to be there, especially in this draft where no one is even sure who’s in the mix for No. 2 overall. The Cubs could look to someone like James Paxton, who would immediately become the best left-handed pitcher in the system. He’s a college starter that can hit the high 90s, but his numbers have not been good this year – so he could slide to them. Paxton is a high risk, high reward player (but a much better bet than Colvin).