Archive for Jayson Werth

A year ago, pretty much everyone picked the Nationals to win the NL East. Why not? They’d won 98 games in 2012, and they’d done so without full seasons from Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, or Jayson Werth. They’d done so without a real center fielder, since Rick Ankiel and Roger Bernadina had started 64 games there while Harper was still in the minors or otherwise unavailable, a problem that newcomer Denard Span was intended to fix. They’d also won 98 without Rafael Soriano, a seemingly luxurious addition who had been added to a bullpen that was already solid, and without Dan Haren, who was a risk but had many years of excellent performance behind him and wasn’t being counted on to be more than the fourth starter.

No one wanted to say that the Nationals were going to top 100 wins, but plenty of us thought it. In a division with only one other serious contender, they seemed like a lock. They seemed like the safest bet in the game. Read the rest of this entry »

Perhaps the story of the Phillies in ye old National League Championship Series of 2010 is the story of missed opportunities at the plate. We know how poor of a statistic batting average is, but Ryan Howard was the only regular to top .261, so the bats weren’t hot. The entire team put up a .216/.311/.321 line, which is somewhere between “that’s disappointing” and “OMGz, trade that bum Chase Utley (.182/.333/.227) like yesterday” depending on your current state of mind. A team that hit .260/.332/.413 during the season didn’t come close to equaling that production in a six-game stretch. It happens, and it seems there’s no reason to slice and dice that sample any smaller.

Or maybe there is. Because we’ve talked about this team’s struggles against lefthanders at times. Looking at the series as a whole, though, the Phillies managed “only” 10 runs, 18 hits (7 extra base) and 9 walks in 21 innings against lefties. Perhaps we only remember the high-profile strikeouts – and the Giants’ LHPs did strike out 23 in those 21 innings. Even if we think the overall line overstates the case and want to consider the leverage index of all those Javier Lopez outings, in particular, he only averaged a 1.4 LI while compiling that 2.08 ERA and getting those 13 outs. Impressive? Yes. Higher-than-average pressure in those situations? Yes. The reason the Phillies lost the series? Hardly. The Phillies had chances and we obviously can’t blame their lack of offense all on their overall performance against lefties.

The word going in was that even if the Phillies offense was going to have a little trouble with this staff, their own pitching staff would easily neutralize the poor Giants offense. After all, the Giants were the only playoff team with a below-average wOBA and the Phillies had Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels. That trio didn’t perform poorly – they pitched 33 innings and allowed 13 runs, striking out 34 against only six walks. Perhaps more was expected of Roy Halladay after his no-hitter in the first round, but he did strain that groin and you don’t point at three pitchers that pitched 65% of your innings to a 3.27 ERA and say, there, that’s your problem right there.

The bullpen? 13 innings, three runs. The defense? Four errors to the Giants’ three – and even if you want to say errors are a poor gauge of defense, you’d have to admit they played about even on the field in that regard. Timely hitting? Sure, but what can you really do about that, and how much of that is the short sample? Want to blame Ryan Howard just ’cause? Check Dave Cameron’s defense.

It was a tight series. Javier Lopez certainly helped the Giants, and the San Francisco staff deserves some credit for keeping a good offense down. Play this series a million times, though, and the Philadelphia squad probably wins close to half of ’em. The Phillies didn’t play terribly and don’t have an obvious scapegoat going into the offseason, so all they can do is find a way to replace Jayson Werth if he leaves (preferably with a right-handed bat), rework the bullpen as good teams do every offseason, and give it another shot next year.

First off, given some of the howling on twitter, it’s time for the obligatory strike zone plot. Let’s get it out of the way, thanks to Brooks Baseball.

It’s pretty ugly, but consistent enough. It was four or five inches too wide, or a half a foot if you count both sides. But there are plenty of triangles and squares out there beyond the box, so let’s not blame it all on umpire Wally Bell.

For all the talk of how similar Madison Bumgarner and Joe Blanton were going into the game, it’s somewhat prescient that they both failed to get out of the fifth inning and that they both left having given up three earned runs. On the other hand, the journey was not necessarily so similar. Bumgarner does use his left hand, and he did strike out six and allow only one run to score while he was on the bump, while Blanton struck out three and was directly responsible for all of his runs. It wasn’t all bad for Blanton – all of his balls in play were counted as groundballs – but it since the starters played to a standstill on the scoreboard, the advantage goes to the hometown pitcher.

Phillies fans can’t even blame the randomness of coming through in high leverage moments in this one – there were eight moments with a leverage index over one last night. The Phillies batters came through in two of them, and the Giants batters came through in two of them. It may seem that the Giants were more ‘clutch,’ but that would probably just be because they came up last. To the home-fielders went the spoils.

At this point, some of the blame must rest squarely on the Phillies’ stars. In this game, Chase Utley put up a -10.8% in win probability by going one for five and not coming through in some key moments. That comes on the heels of a -12% in game three (0-for-4), +3.8% in game two (0-for-3 with two walks), and a -1.8% in game one (1-for-3 with a walk). It’s obviously just a poor four-game stretch for a great secondbaseman, but it’s also bad timing for that stretch. The same could be said for Jimmy Rollins (.267, 1 extra base hit) and Jayson Werth (.250, 1 extra base hit).

The larger pattern is one of struggles for all of the left-handers on the team. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, the recently benched Raul Ibanez, and young Domonic Brown are a combined 7-for-39 with 7 walks and 3 extra-base hits, and most of that is Howard’s production. Maybe it’s not a surprise given the left arms of Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner, but Javier Lopez looms as a large acquisition for the Giants in this series. He has three big holds and gave up his first run Wednesday night. His lefty sidearm release has been hard on the lefty batters, and that makes sense given the difference in release points vis-a-vis a regular right-hander.

All this said, it was a great game. The WPA graph does a good job showing the rollercoaster that was Wednesday night. Fans of baseball were satisfied, if not fans of Phillie baseball.

The Phillies didn’t make many big splashes this offseason outside of signing Raul Ibanez, but they did manage to avoid arbitration with every eligible player. Some players even signed extensions buying out more arb-eligible years. One of these players was Jayson Werth, who signed a 2-yr/$10 mil extension on the heels of a +5.3 win season. I chimed in around that time basically stating that he should easily be worth the money. Through his first 30 games this season, Werth has done nothing to dissuade this opinion.

After his performance last night, Werth boasts a .295/.395/.562 line with six home runs, seven stolen bases and a .421 wOBA. Four of those stolen bases took place last night, three of which occurred in the same inning. In the bottom of the seventh, with the Phillies leading 4-2, Werth singled off of Will Ohman with one out. Ohman must have tossed over to first at least six times before striking out Ryan Howard. With two outs, Werth decided to make something happen and stole second base. Ohman then pitched around Jimmy Rollins before putting him on when the count reached 3-1.

Raul Ibanez stepped in and both Rollins and Werth stole. Ibanez then walked. Pedro Feliz came up to the plate with the bases loaded, but after the fifth pitch thrown his way, Werth stole home! And a straight steal of home no less, not a situation in which he took the base when the catcher threw to nab another potential basestealer. Werth’s steal of a home was not as straight, per se, as Jacoby Ellsbury’s this season when the Red Sox centerfielder actually swiped home plate on a pitch. Werth’s is what gets classified as a delayed steal, wherein the baserunner takes his secondary lead following the delivery of the pitch but steals later than anticipated, catchingeveryone off guard.

Ronald Belisario delivered the 2-2 pitch to Feliz. Russell Martin caught it and lazily threw the ball back to the pitcher, just as every catcher does following every non-wild pitch. This time, however, Werth anticipated the half-hearted throw and bolted for home. Belisario responded as quickly as one could but his throw did not make it to Martin in time. His fourth stolen base of the night, Werth tied a Phillies record for steals in a game that had not been reached since Garry Maddox did so in 1978. And Werth’s three swipes in the same inning tied a franchise record not matched since Pete Rose accomplished the feat in 1980.

Many people clamor on about Werth’s “inability” to hit same-handed pitching, claiming that his numbers in 2006 and 2007 were inflated due to predominantly facing southpaws. This claim does hold some water, as Werth led baseball in home runs against lefties last season and is among the leaders in slash stats against them over the last few seasons. However, even if you add in some plate appearances against righties and assumed he would hit them at around the same rate he had been, his overall numbers do not drop precipitously. It is essentially the difference between a .385 wOBA and a .375 wOBA, if that. So, yes, his numbers have been inflated, but not very inflated and not enough to say he isn’t a truly great player right now.

This season, he has a .276/.378/.526 line against same-handed pitching which becomes more meaningful given his increased ability to hit righthanders down the stretch last season. A well above average fielder in a corner outfield spot who can also play average or better defense in centerfield, who mangles southpaws and is improving against righties, with the power and speed to easily go 20/20 in a season is a beast of a player. Because he didn’t get full playing time until 29 years old and is overshadowed by the likes of Utley, Howard and Rollins, Werth has not really instilled plenty of confidence in fans outside of Philadelphia with regards to an ability to sustain +4 to +5 win performance. After this season, that should all be assuaged.

Philadelphia Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr has had his hands full this offseason. Not a ton has been done with regards to the free agent market, but seemingly half the team was eligible for arbitration this year and only one player, Ryan Howard, may actually go to court. Amaro managed to settle with the likes of Joe Blanton, Shane Victorino, Chad Durbin, Eric Bruntlett, and Clay Condrey. He also signed Greg Dobbs, Cole Hamels, and Ryan Madson to contract extensions.

The most recent player to sign such an extension was Jayson Werth, a rightfielder who soared under the radar to produce a +4.7 win season in 2008.

Now, some of Werth’s worth may have been inflated due to facing predominantly lefthanded pitching to start the season. He feasts on lefties (as evidenced by his MLB-leading 16 HR against southpaws) and didn’t have to face righties while platooning with Geoff Jenkins. Had he faced righties more often, his value may have diminished a bit. No matter how you slice it, though, he was one of the most valuable Phillies last season, combining 20 HR/20 SB offense with a +16 UZR rating.

The 2-yr deal will pay Werth $10 mil. He will earn $3 mil in 2009, a third of which comes as a signing bonus. The remaining $7 mil will become his salary in 2010. With the signing, both sides were able to avoid arbitration, where their figures differed by only $1 mil — $4 mil from Werth, $3 mil from the team. The deal buys out his final arbitration year as well as his first free agent season.

Next season, Werth projects to about +15 runs with the bat and +8 in the field. He will be the full-time starter meaning his adjustments for value above replacement and position will rise. Assuming 140 GP and 600 PA, Werth projects to +3.6 wins. At fair market value, that is $16.2 mil. Since he was eligible for arbitration, however, the 40/60/80 modifier comes into play. Even if we took 20% of his fair market value, $3.2 mil, the Phillies still walk away as big winners here.

At around +3.2 wins in 2010, assuming a slight decline, Werth’s fair market value would command around $15 mil. The Phillies have a player likely to produce close to +7 wins and $31 mil for one-third of the price.

For those unaware, Fangraphs unveiled a new section on the player pages today. The section takes all of the dollar valuation components we have manually calculated, harnesses the stats, and outputs wins above replacement level as well as the player’s fair market value salary based on his production.

The Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series in 2008, their first since 1980. Much of the attention garnered by the team went in the direction of superstars Chase Utley and Cole Hamels, former MVP winners Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins, and the 41-41 closer Brad Lidge. While all five of these players deserved some form of recognition for the success of the team, a few other players contributed a good amount. These players made their contributions under the radar, though, and prior to the post-season were not even household names. Guys like Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino fit this bill.

Werth was a former first-round draft pick of the Orioles in 1997, but did not truly find a home until 2007. After health problems while playing for the Blue Jays and Dodgers limited his availability and production, the LA bunch cut ties with Werth following the 2006 campaign, one that he completely missed due to injuries. Pat Gillick, who drafted Werth while helming the Orioles, quickly brought him to the Phillies.

Still under control, Werth signed a 1-yr deal worth $850,000. With the going rate of $4.1 mil/win in 2007, Gillick’s deal valued Werth as a +2 run, +0.2 win player. In 304 plate appearances that year, Werth put together an impressive .298/.404/.459 line, good for a .385 wOBA. His production benefited from a regression-bound .391 BABIP, but Werth’s offense resulted in +11.7 runs above average.

Defensively, he proved stellar as well, with a UZR rating of +11.5 runs. Though he failed to qualify for the overall leaderboards, this defensive rating ranked fifth in the senior circuit amongst anyone with 550+ innings played in the entire outfield. All told, after adjustments are taken into account, Werth’s worth was +2.8 wins. If he had signed a contract that valued his production appropriately, the terms would be 1-yr/$11.6 mil.

In 2008, the BABIP plummeted to .327, resulting in a still productive but different slash line of .273/.363/.498. Werth lost some ability to reach base, but made up for it with an increase in power. Because of the increased output elsewhere, his wOBA remained virtually the same, at .382. The biggest difference, however, came in the form of playing time. Werth partook in 134 games last season, amassing 482 PA in the process.

His offensive production almost doubled to +21.6 runs above average. Werth also produced another fantastic season with the glove, putting together a UZR rating of +15.8 runs in the outfield. Among outfielders with at least 950 innings played, this ranks fifth in the entire sport, and second in the senior circuit to just Randy Winn.

In 2008, Jayson Werth became a +4.9 win player. 4.9 wins! Mark Teixeira’s projection for next season calls for something like +5.1 wins. Werth had re-signed for a 1-yr/$1.7 mil contract that doubled his previous season’s salary, but ended up being worth much more money than that. If he signed for his fair market value, the deal would have been closer to $22 mil.

Moving forward, his 2009 projections call for a .375 wOBA, +20 offensive runs, +12 defensive runs, and after adjustments, +43 value runs. This converts to approximately +4.15 wins, and $20.8 mil.

Werth is one of many arbitration-eligible members of the Phillies, and will likely see his salary bumped to around $4 mil for the 2009 season. Assuming this comes to fruition, he will have earned $6.55 mil from the Phillies from 2007-09, while producing +11.85 wins above replacement level. If his deserved salaries are added, we get a figure of $54.4 mil.

It is easy to lampoon GMs for dishing out ridiculous deals to players like Adam Eaton, but they deserve equal praise for acquiring players as productive as Werth. Players who, despite being under control, are able to be had for about nine times less than their fair market value.

While researching for the article my brother and I are writing in this year’s THT Annual, I stumbled across an interesting tidbit regarding Pat Gillick: he loves acquiring players he formerly employed. I won’t go through the whole list now, but, with the Phillies at least, he signed or traded for Jamie Moyer, Arthur Rhodes, Greg Dobbs, Freddy Garcia, and Ryan Franklin. Another former player of his is Jayson Werth. Werth never played for Gillick’s Blue Jays, Orioles, or Mariners, but he was drafted by Gillick’s Orioles in the first round back in 1997.

It should come as no surprise, then, that when Werth was let go by the Dodgers following injury recovery, Gillick jumped up and brought him to the Phillies. He performed well in a platoon role last year and looked to possess all the raw skills that make a player successful. This year, the plan was for Werth to platoon with Geoff Jenkins in right field. Jenkins was inconsistent—or consistently below average depending on how you want to phrase it—and is now hurt, while Werth has been a rock for the Phillies. In fact, over the last fourteen days, no other hitter has contributed more wins to his team than Werth.

That’s right… over the last fourteen days, Jayson’s 1.16 WPA/LI leads all major league hitters. Mark Teixeira is in second place at 0.90, just about one quarter of a win lower. Werth’s WPA in this span ranks third in the NL and fifth in the whole sport, behind three Carlos’s (Beltran, Delgado, Pena) and Shin-Soo Choo. This impressive run is built upon a .370/.492/.804 slash line, complete with 5 home runs and 5 doubles.

All told, Werth is hiting .279/.377/.525 this year, a .902 OPS, with 21 home runs in 326 at-bats. He has turned some of his grounders into flyballs and has a 22.6% HR/FB, up from last year’s 13.3%. His 2.52 WPA/LI on the season ranks, believe it or not, 15th in the National League, ahead of Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Dan Uggla, Prince Fielder, and Adrian Gonzalez. Whether or not some of those players are having down years, the fact remains that Jayson Werth, a low risk acquisition prior to last season, is one of the main reasons the Phillies are still within striking distance of the NL East.