Archive for Jim Johnson

Jim Johnson led all of baseball with 101 saves over the past two seasons. On September 27th, Dan Duquette told Roch Kubatko of MASN that, “Jim Johnson is one of our core players,” and it was the team’s intention to keep him despite the $10.8M projected salary for 2014. Fast forward to late last week when Buster Olney tweeted that the Orioles were willing to listen to offers on Johnson. After a flurry of rumors yesterday, Duquette decided to allocate his resources to balance the roster to make it more competitive.

Doing so creates a large hole in the back of the Orioles’ bullpen as Johnson also led all of baseball in games finished over the past two seasons. Johnson stepped in to fill the void left by Kevin Gregg’s ineffectiveness two seasons ago, and now someone else has the opportunity to do so. When Johnson did so, it was the easy choice as he had displayed the skills to do so while getting the ball to Gregg to attempt to save games. In looking at the current 40-man roster for Baltimore, there does not seem as clear a choice this time around.

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Over the next few days, we’re looking at sophomore, or second-year, players in the Major Leagues. Today’s post is looking at the American League East division. Yesterday, we looked at the American League Central.

Ian Kennedy came into the Yankees’ system with a reputation of being a pretty good college pitcher, but he was not quite as highly regarded as he had been coming out of high school (in part because he lost a little bit off the fastball). Despite some grumblings that Kennedy had been an overdraft as a first-round draft pick, the right-hander dominated the minor leagues (He has a career 1.96 ERA in the minors). There is a reason, though, that they call it the “Major Leagues” and Kennedy was hit around in 2008. He posted an 8.17 ERA and allowed 50 hits in just 39.2 innings or work. His walk rate, which was 2.8 BB/9 in the minors, jumped to 5.90 BB/9. Kennedy got off to a solid start in 2009 in four games at triple-A but he then underwent surgery for an aneurysm under his right armpit and will be out until after the All-Star break.

Like Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain was a pretty good college pitcher but he had injuries problems and other teams shied away from him. Big mistake. The Yankees took a risk and have one of the top young arms in baseball, although Chamberlain has still had a few injuries throughout his pro career. In 2008, the right-hander spent time in both the starting rotation and the bullpen. He allowed just 87 hits in 100.1 innings, while posting a 2.60 ERA (2.65 FIP). Chamberlain also posted an excellent strikeout rate at 10.58 K/9. In 2009, he has continued to pitch well, although he has not been as dominant. He has a 3.86 ERA (4.68 FIP) with 56 hits allowed in 63.1 innings of work. His walk rate has risen from 3.50 in 2008 to 4.69 BB/9 in 2009. His strikeout rate has decreased to 8.24 K/9. Chamberlain’s average fastball velocity has decreased each of the past three seasons, from 97 to 95 to 92.4 mph, although part of that can be attributed to spending more time in the starting rotation.

Both Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez came out of almost nowhere in 2008 to provide much-needed innings for the Yankees’ bullpen. Veras, now 28, allowed 52 hits in 57.2 innings and had a strikeout rate of 9.83 K/9. However, he was just designated for assignment after posting a 5.96 ERA in 2009 and seeing his strikeout rate drop to 6.31 K/9, while also struggling with his control and gopher ball tendencies. Ramirez, also 28, had a 3.90 ERA in 2008 and posted a 3.90 BB/9 rate, as well as a strikeout rate of 10.25 K/9. In 2009, though, he’s regressed to a 5.19 ERA, and rates of 7.79 BB/9 and 8.31 K/9.

As far as first-round picks go, David Purcey has been a huge disappointment. Making his MLB debut at the age of 26, the left-hander posted a 5.54 ERA and allowed 67 hits in 65 innings of work, although he showed some improvements as the year progressed. His rates were 4.02 BB/9 and 8.03 K/9. In 2009, he won an opening-day rotation spot but made just five starts before a demotion to triple-A. In those starts, Purcey allowed a 7.01 ERA, 28 hits in 25.2 innings and posted rates of 6.31 BB/9 and 9.12 K/9.

Southpaw Jesse Carlson was a revelation in 2008 and appeared in 69 games as a rookie. He posted a 2.25 ERA (3.80 FIP) and allowed just 41 hits in 60 innings of work. In 2009, though, Carlson’s ERA has risen to 5.22 (although his FIP is just 3.80) and he’s allowed 31 hits in 29.1 innings. His control is OK (3.15 BB/9 in 2008, 2.76 in 2009) but he hasn’t had the same command of his pitches and his strikeout rate has dropped from 8.25 K/9 in 2008 to 5.83 K/9 this season.

Radhames Liz has a blistering fastball but he’s just one more hard-throwing pitcher that has no idea how to pitch (Daniel Cabrera, anyone?). Liz, 26, was promoted to the Majors in 2008 by the pitching-poor Orioles and was coming off a good half season in the minors, as well as a very good 2007 season at double-A. Liz allowed 99 hits in 84.1 innings, while also posting a 6.72 ERA. He posted rates of 5.44 BB/9 and 6.08 K/9. So far this year, Liz has a 6.09 ERA in triple-A and has a 67.50 ERA in two relief appearances in the Majors. Velocity is not everything.

Another hard thrower, Dennis Sarfate appeared in 57 games for the Orioles as a rookie in 2008. He allowed just 62 hits in 79.2 innings of work and posted rates of 7.00 BB/9 and 9.72 K/9. Sarfate, 28, appeared in just eight games in 2009 and posted an ERA of 6.39 before going on the disabled list with circulation problems in his finger. Right-hander Jim Johnson was also a major contributor to the 2008 bullpen as a rookie. He posted a 2.23 ERA (3.38 FIP) while allowing 54 hits in 68.2 innings of work. In 2009, Johnson, 25, has continued to have success with a 3.07 ERA (3.83 FIP) and 28 hits allowed in 29.1 innings. His strikeout rate has actually risen from 4.98 K/9 in 2008 to 6.14 K/9 in 2009.

A sinker-slider pitcher, Justin Masterson has bounced between the starting rotation and bullpen for the Red Sox during the past two seasons with good success in both roles. The right-hander induces a lot of groundballs and gets his fair share of strikeouts in the process. He posted a 3.16 ERA (4.69 FIP) while allowing 68 hits in 88.1 innings of work in 2008. In 2009, the 24 year old has a 3.88 ERA (3.68 FIP) with 56 hits allowed in 53.1 innings. Masterson has also seen his BABIP allowed increase from .243 in 2008 to .332 in 2009. His walk rate has decreased from 4.08 in 2008 to 3.04 BB/9 this season.

Clay Buchholz burst upon the scene in 2007 but struggled during his rookie season in 2008 by allowing 93 hits in 76 innings of work. He posted a 6.75 ERA and posted a strikeout rate of 4.86 BB/9. He’s really turned things around in triple-A this season, although there is no opening in the Red Sox Major League rotation. Buchholz has a 1.75 ERA (3.27 FIP) in triple-A with 40 hits allowed in 67 innings. His walk rate is just 2.01 BB/9.

Jed Lowrie did a nice job as an injury replacement in 2008 for the Red Sox. He had a triple-slash line of .258/.339/.400 with two homers in 260 at-bats. His strikeout rate of 26.2 K% was a little high for an infielder with modest pop, but he filled in at three positions and provided solid defense. After just five games in 2009 Lowrie required wrist surgery. He’s currently rehabbing.

It was hard for Jacoby Ellsbury to build off his debut in 2007, but he had a solid – albeit unspectacular – first full season in Majors in 2008. He hit .280/.336/.394 with 50 stolen bases in 61 attempts. Ellsbury’s triple-slash line in 2009 is .306/.351/.383 and he’s stolen 25 bases in 31 attempts. He’s also trimmed his strikeout rate from 14.4 to 8.9 K/9, while maintaining almost the same walk rate at 6.1 BB%. Ellsbury is proving to be a very solid player, but he’s probably not a star.

Evan Longoria had a huge 2008 season and won the American League Rookie of the Year award. He produced a triple-slash line of .272/.343/.531 and hit 27 home runs. So far this year, Longoria has been even better with a line of .305/.387/.584 with 14 home runs and 58 RBI. His walk rate has increased from 9.3 in 2008 to 11.4 BB% in 2009. His strikeout rate has stayed almost the same at 26.5 K%. Longoria also plays a solid third base. He should be a mainstay in the Rays lineup for many years to come.

Matt Joyce spent the 2008 season with Detroit and hit .252/.339/.510 with 12 homers in 242 at-bats. Traded to Tampa Bay for Edwin Jackson prior to the 2009 season, Joyce, 24, has regressed and has spent most of the season in triple-A. Jackson, though, has had a breakout season for Detroit.

On April 12, the Orioles made arguably their most productive move of the season, regardless of whether or not they had any idea it would work out that way. They optioned infielder Scott Moore to the minors and recalled 24-yr old pitcher Jim Johnson. Johnson, a starter in the minor leagues, had made two “audition” starts for the Orioles in 2006 and 2007, racking up the undesirable line of 5 IP, 12 H, 10 ER, 5 BB, 1 K. His minor league numbers suggested he was better than that and, since making his 2008 debut on April 13, he has been a key component on an its-surprising-they-aren’t-thirty-games-under-.500 team.

Johnson also stakes claim as the highest-ranked reliever with both a 1.85 WPA/LI and 2.15 REW. Relative to context-neutral wins and wins based on shifts in run expectancy, there has not been a more productive relief pitcher to this date. His overall numbers this year: 43 G, 57.1 IP, 34 H, 24 BB, 30 K. He has also surrendered 12 earned runs on the year, four of which came in one outing in the last couple of weeks.

His 3.30 FIP suggests an ERA of 1.88 has not necessarily been born out of his controllable skillset and, amongst relievers with at least 40.0 IP, his ERA-FIP differential ranks tenth in baseball. The higher FIP is also a direct result of his low strikeout rates and relatively high walk rates. While giving out 3.77 free passes every nine innings won’t lose a reliever his job, especially when comparing him to his peers, the 4.71 K/9 is, at least right now, a bit of a red flag. Looking at the same group of relievers with forty or more innings tossed, his K/9 is the fifth lowest, as is his K/BB. Due to only 34 hits allowed, though, his WHIP is currently a tremendous 1.01.

The question should then become, well, if he doesn’t strike anyone out and his walk rate isn’t that impressive, how has he managed to produce an extremely respectable 3.30 FIP? The answer: he has not given up a home run yet this year. In 43 games, not one ball has left the yard in fair territory after sailing from his hand to the batter’s box. In fact, he is the only reliever with forty or more innings not to serve up a gopher ball this year.

In the minors he had decent but not overwhelming numbers, but his 93-94 mph fastball and 78 mph curveball combination has definitely more than gotten the job done to this point in his first full year in the big leagues. He has only given up, as mentioned, 34 hits this year but his BABIP is a ridiculously low .205. Either Jim Johnson is going to emerge as the elitest of relievers or this is going to regress from here on out. His strand rate of 78% is high but nowhere near the likes of Joe Nathan and his companions atop the leaderboard.

He isn’t allowing a ton of baserunners primarily because balls put in play haven’t been falling in for hits as much. If/when that regresses we can expect the BABIP and WHIP to rise. Though his strand rate isn’t ridiculously high, it is well above average and, if sustainable, will help prevent some of these “new” baserunners from scoring. Regardless, even if or when his numbers do worsen, it won’t mask how effective he has been this year or make us forget that at the end of July he was one of baseball’s most effective relievers. It will take another year or two to know his true talent level but that does not take anything away from his productivity.