Archive for Jon Lester

The National League Cy Young race is an incredibly competitive one, and as Dave Cameron (who has a vote this year) broke down a few weeks ago, much of the differences between the candidates deals with run prevention in a team sense (RA/9-WAR and ERA) versus run prevention in a component sense (FIP, WAR). As a result, there has been considerable discussion on the concept of weak contact, and last week I looked at the role of the Cubs defense in the Chicago pitchers’ low BABIPs. Taking a small step further, let’s use the Statcast to look at weak and strong contact to determine if the Cy Young candidates in the National League have been helping out their defenses.

To whittle down the candidates, I found the pitchers who are among the National League’s top 10 both by WAR and RA/9-WAR — and then added Jose Fernandez, who just missed the second list. This is a list of those pitchers and their respective ERA, FIP and WAR marks.

As you can see, the NL pitchers ranked first and second in ERA only rank sixth and seventh in FIP, which has led to discussions, particularly with regard to Kyle Hendricks, about how to evaluate such discrepancies when discussing a pitcher’s Cy Young candidacy. To examine the type of contact a pitcher is generating, ee can start with a simple look at average exit velocity. Here are the pitchers’ average exit-velocity numbers and MLB ranks, per Baseball Savant.

While the evidence isn’t overwhelming, there is some reason to think that a pitcher has some, if not a lot, of influence over exit velocity, with the bulk of the influence coming from the batter. Those arguing for Kyle Hendricks for the Cy Young would likely say there is a considerable effect and point to the very good exit-velocity numbers and very low BABIP he’s conceded as evidence. That said, Clayton Kershaw has an even better average exit velocity and his BABIP isn’t quite as low as Hendricks’. Which pitcher gets more credit?

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On Sunday, Jon Lester took the hill as a pitcher who had been beaten up over the last month. In his previous six starts, Jon Lester had an 0-5 record with a 8.73 ERA, allowing a .321/.385/.588 slash line to opposing hitters. He had given up 42 hits in these six starts and almost half of them were for extra bases. The vultures were swarming above Fenway, and many observers were simply waiting for the inevitable announcement that he was hurt. After establishing himself as one of the best pitchers in the American League, Lester was having his worst season as a major league pitcher, and it was only getting uglier as the season wore on.

And then on Sunday, Lester went and struck out 12 Cleveland Indians over six innings pitched. He gave up just three hits, all singles. He likely could have gone deeper in this one, but the Red Sox were already up 14-1 at that point. After weeks of getting beaten around like a Triple-A reject, he was nearly unhittable. Did Lester do anything fundamentally different in this outing, or was this just the old adage of sun on a dogs backside?

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It’s too early to worry. It’s only one outing, right? Right?

But when three of baseball’s premier strikeout pitchers combine for just one punchout in games on Friday, well, it’s interesting. And exceptionally rare–especially for these guys.

Entering 2011, Jon Lester had made 123 starts in his career, with his only K-less appearance coming on April 9, 2008. In that game he lasted 5 1/3 frames, allowing four hits and four runs to go along with four walks. Brett Myers had made 216 career starts and never left a game sans strikeout while lasting at least five frames. Ubaldo Jimenez had started 116 games, whiffing one or fewer batters in at least five innings on just two occasions: September 20, 2007 (6 1/3 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 1 K), and May 21, 2008 (7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 K).

On Friday, neither Lester nor Myers recorded a strikeout, and Jimenez fanned only one batter. In fact, Myers recorded only one missed swing. In a total of 18 1/3 innings, this trio managed fewer strikeouts than Ryan Madson did in his one inning of work.

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It takes a little luck to be a real-life All-Star, or to win yourself some individual hardware. Both Cy Young winners outperformed their FIPs by a nice clip last season. Felix Hernandez (2.27 ERA, 3.04 FIP) and Roy Halladay (2.44 ERA, 3.01 FIP) also did this despite owning career ERAs and FIPs that were much closer together. Fantasy baseball sleeper lists are rife with those that underperformed their FIPs – Francisco Liriano (3.62 ERA, 2.66 FIP) and Yovani Gallardo (3.84 ERA, 3.02 FIP) might feature prominently.

But what about the players that suffered through a season of incredibly neutral luck? Should we not celebrate them somehow? They somehow managed to flip a coin a hundred times and get fifty tails. That seems worth… something.

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As I wrote back in October, it can be difficult for a player to shake a reputation. Fortunately, for the Red Sox, Jon Lester accomplished this very feat by showing everyone that he was a legitimate ace pitcher and not merely a cancer survivor with raw tools and potential. The 25-yr old lefty, who tossed a no-hitter in the 2008 season, put together a tremendous statline in 33 starts en route to +5.1 wins. Production like that translated to $23 mil at fair market value. Still well under club control, Lester of course earned nowhere near that salary.

His production did not go unrewarded for long, however, as he has just signed a 5-yr extension worth $30 mil, with a 6th year option valued at $13 mil. The extension buys out all of his arbitration-eligible seasons as well as his first two free agent years, and has the potential to keep the southpaw in Red Sox attire until he turns 31 years old.

Lester is tough to project thanks to just 144.1 innings logged in 2006-07 and the fact that the systems do not tend to recognize or reward breakout performances. The projection systems housed here suggest that Lester will take a decently sized step backwards, regressing to somewhere in the +3.5 to +4.1 win range. I’m a tad more optimistic and see him potentially as a +4.5 win pitcher if he can match the innings pitched total from last season.

Normally, with extensions, we break out the 40/60/80 calculator and determine the worth, but what intrigues me about this particular extension is that it has become hard to determine the true “winner” of deals this offseason. With the market as depressed as it has become, a deal that seemingly possesses a slam dunk pedigree such as this might be a bit more fair than meets the eye. Either way, the Red Sox have done a solid job of locking up two of their best players in Lester and Pedroia, players who will no-doubtedly outearn their salaries.

With the inconsistencies of Daisuke Matsuzaka, the potential that we have seen the best days of Josh Beckett, the question marks surrounding John Smoltz, Clay Buchholz, and Brad Penny, and increasing odds that Tim Wakefield will retire one of these years, the Red Sox have just locked up their best pitcher, ensuring themselves of an ace for the next several years. And if the aforementioned inconsistencies, question marks, and odds prove to be irrelevent with 2009 performance and beyond, Lester has the chance to headline one of the top rotations in the game for years to come.

Last week, Red Sox lefty Jon Lester and Angels righty John Lackey met in Anaheim for the first game of a much anticipated division series. On one hand, the Red Sox won the World Series last season, had beaten the Angels in the playoffs about nine straight times, and despite winning the wild card, were considered by many to be the superior time. On the other hand, the Angels won the most games in the junior circuit, and actually went 8-1 against the Red Sox in the regular season, with the Halos winning eight in a row.

In game one, the Red Sox would not start Josh Beckett, one of the, if not the best playoff pitchers we have ever seen, and instead go with Jon Lester. Lester, a star in the making, had a breakout season this year, amassing 210.1 innings of 3.21 ERA/3.64 FIP pitching. He had a WHIP of 1.27 and a nice K/BB of 2.30. A hard thrower, Lester threw his 93 mph fastball close to 60% of the time this year, relying on a cutter and a curveball to make up the rest of his deliveries. His season was so good, and perhaps even unexpectedly good, that he has actually been able to shake the reputation as being primarily a cancer survivor, and instead become known as an extremely good pitcher.

The Angels decided to send their ace, John Lackey, to face Lester. Despite missing time earlier in the season, Lackey made 24 starts this year, in which he posted a 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 3.25 K/BB. If there was one blemish, it was that his FIP suggested his ERA should be closer to the 4.53 mark. The Red Sox took game one from the Angels, with Lester giving up one unearned run over six hits in seven innings. He issued just one free pass and fanned seven hitters. Lackey lasted 6.2 innings, giving up four hits and two runs, while walking three and striking out five.

While Lackey has been a good pitcher for quite some time now, he is still remembered for being a rookie pitching in game seven of the 2002 World Series against the Giants. That post-season, he appeared in five games, three of which were starts, posting a 2.42 ERA and 2.25 FIP in 22.1 innings. Since that time, he has made five playoff starts, in which he has produced a 4.34 ERA and 4.90 FIP in 29 innings. His achilles heel has been walks.

In 2002, he issued six walks and struck out 17 hitters. Since then, 15 walks to go with his 21 strikeouts. A team like the Red Sox cannot be given extra baserunners in the form of walks, so if the Angels have any chance of winning this game, not only will they need to break through against Lester, but they will need Lackey to limit his free passes. Otherwise, the Red Sox will more than likely take advantage of these miscues and move onto the ALCS tonight.