Archive for jose fernandez

The National League Cy Young race is an incredibly competitive one, and as Dave Cameron (who has a vote this year) broke down a few weeks ago, much of the differences between the candidates deals with run prevention in a team sense (RA/9-WAR and ERA) versus run prevention in a component sense (FIP, WAR). As a result, there has been considerable discussion on the concept of weak contact, and last week I looked at the role of the Cubs defense in the Chicago pitchers’ low BABIPs. Taking a small step further, let’s use the Statcast to look at weak and strong contact to determine if the Cy Young candidates in the National League have been helping out their defenses.

To whittle down the candidates, I found the pitchers who are among the National League’s top 10 both by WAR and RA/9-WAR — and then added Jose Fernandez, who just missed the second list. This is a list of those pitchers and their respective ERA, FIP and WAR marks.

As you can see, the NL pitchers ranked first and second in ERA only rank sixth and seventh in FIP, which has led to discussions, particularly with regard to Kyle Hendricks, about how to evaluate such discrepancies when discussing a pitcher’s Cy Young candidacy. To examine the type of contact a pitcher is generating, ee can start with a simple look at average exit velocity. Here are the pitchers’ average exit-velocity numbers and MLB ranks, per Baseball Savant.

While the evidence isn’t overwhelming, there is some reason to think that a pitcher has some, if not a lot, of influence over exit velocity, with the bulk of the influence coming from the batter. Those arguing for Kyle Hendricks for the Cy Young would likely say there is a considerable effect and point to the very good exit-velocity numbers and very low BABIP he’s conceded as evidence. That said, Clayton Kershaw has an even better average exit velocity and his BABIP isn’t quite as low as Hendricks’. Which pitcher gets more credit?

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The Miami Marlins are about to get a lot better as a baseball team. Jose Fernandez, one of the most exciting and superlative pitchers in major-league baseball, is set to return next week. Martin Prado and Michael Morse should be back shortly. Henderson Alvarez, who has made just four starts all year, is progressing in his rehab. Mat Latos, who struggled mightily to begin the season, is beginning to show signs of life as the velocity on his fastball continues to creep forward. The Marlins should soon have the team they expected to enter the year with — the team that some, this author included, thought would make the playoffs as a wild card. The problem for the Marlins is that it is already too late this season, and the team needs to start thinking about next year.

The Marlins began the season as a .500 team and the Fangraphs Playoff Odds gave them a 27% chance of making the playoffs. As they were missing their best starter at the time, but his return was factored into those odds, it is fair to assume that the team was not going to be very good to start the season and that they would actually be a below .500 team for the early part of the season. They started the season poorly enough that they fired their manager and replaced him with the general manager. Often times, a team that fires its manager makes that move because the team is underperforming, and the managerial change appears to work as the team tends to play up to its talent level. For the Marlins, the team’s record has not improved with the managerial change. Read the rest of this entry »

The Marlins Top 15 list has a little bit of everything and the organization boasts some impressive arms. There are three left-handed starters on the list that have the potential to develop into No. 3 starters, if not better. The overall depth of the system is improving but it’s still not quite where I’d like it to be.

#1 Jose Fernandez (P)

Fernandez, just 20, dominated two levels of A-ball in 2012. The 14th overall pick during the 2011 amateur draft, the right-hander was considered an advanced high school arm but he’s been even better than advertised. He struck out 158 batters with just 35 walks in 134 combined innings last season. He has a four-pitch repertoire that includes a mid-to-high-90s fastball, plus changeup and two very good breaking balls in a curveball and slider.

Although he’s very advanced for his age, a contact I spoke with says Fernandez still has some work to do, including, “Learning how to pitch, reading hitters swings, and a better understanding of pitch sequences,” the talent evaluator said. The young hurler also has so many weapons at his disposal that he needs to learn when it’s appropriate to use each one for maximum effectiveness. Fernandez has a durable frame and should be able to provide 200+ innings with ease at the big league level. He will, though, have to watch his conditioning to prevent getting too big around the middle. Read the rest of this entry »

Seeing prospects in person is my passion. In 2012, I was fortunate enough to visit parks in five different leagues — collecting information and video on 200 legitimate prospects or more. The lists released over the next few weeks will highlight the best prospects I’ve seen in person at each position during the 2012 season. The rankings will be adjusted based on projected position at the major league level, not present position (in italics if ranking includes position shift). After writing the first three lists, I realized there’s really no way to keep statistical information out of the equation completely and focus on scouting/projection alone. This has caused me to hedge my bets a bit on high ceiling talents and focus more on the complete player. Additionally, understand this is not meant to be a complete list of the best prospects at each position across all of Minor League Baseball, but the best of what I’ve seen.

Previous Rankings:
The Catchers
The First Basemen
The Second Basemen
The Third Basemen

1. Carlos Correa, Houston Astros

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Bobby Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Current Level: AA
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 5th
Current Value: Leveled Off

Dylan Bundy’s big brother started to realize his potential in 2011 at high-A ball but he’s found the going much tougher at double-A in 2012. Bundy, 22, posted a 2.75 ERA in 121 innings last year but his ERA has jumped to 5.46 in 59.1 innings this season. He’s been inconsistent with three good starts and three bad starts in his last six appearances. His strikeout rate has dropped more than 1 K per nine innings from 2011 and his walk rate has increased by more than one base-on-balls per nine. At 6’2” 215 lbs, and with a solid repertoire, Bundy has the chance to develop into a workhorse in a big league starting rotation but he could end up in the bullpen if he cannot become more consistent.

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