Archive for Josh Johnson

Of course it would take a sample size of so many decades of FanGraphs Contract Crowdsourcing before The Crowd could be properly evaluated for their salary-creating acumen. I will not hesitate, however, to deliver swift and mighty judgement upon The Crowd based on just their (your) inaugural year of estimations.

A few weeks ago, one Carson Cistulli shared an exhaustive chart showing how The Crowd’s aggregate contracts compared against the actual salaries that 2013’s free agents actually received. This is only one dimension with which The Crowd’s collective wisdom can be judged. Now that the free agents of 2013 have played the 2014 season, we can also begin to make strong guesses (and/or swift and mighty judgements) as to whether The Crowd or The Real-Live GM proposed a contract that more accurately reflects a given player’s competitive value.

Tomorrow, a look at The Crowd’s successes: five contracts that are perhaps even more discerning than the contracts proffered by The Real-Live GMs. But today, a look at The Crowd’s collective failures — five contracts that, were they executed by The Real-Live GMs, would be cause for those Real-Live GMs to question (and/or have already lost) their job security.

These five contracts have been selected not out of a set of rigorous objective criteria. However, their short length (all five players were signed by Real-Live GMs to one-year contracts) invites the arrival at conclusions. None of these five players had what one would call a “good” or even a “mediocre” season in 2014. While The Real-Live GMs who designed these contracts no doubt regret their decisions, in each case The Crowd proposed a much larger commitment, in terms of both years and dollars, for these players. In the financial tables below, one can see The Crowd’s aggregate proposals for the number of years (cYRS), average annual value (cAAV), and cumulative contract totals (cTOT) offered to these players, compared to the contracts that they would agree to with The Real-Live GMs (aYRS/aAAV/aTOT).

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Earlier this year, Jack Moore reviewed Josh Johnson’s inability to get hitters out while pitching from the stretch. Johnson and the Jays were very much aware of the situation, but even still, it did not improve as the season went on. In the end, Johnson limited batters to a .315 wOBA and a .307 BABIP when he worked out of a full wind-up, while opposing batters had a .440 wOBA and a .450 BABIP when Johnson worked out of the stretch. His BABIP while pitching from the stretch was 73 points higher than any other pitcher that made at least 15 starts in 2013.

The simple answer this dramatic split would be to simply point at Johnson’s BABIP and say he was unlucky. If one were to review the video from the first inning of his July 27th start against Houston, one could certainly believe that:
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One of the best parts of having the Extra Innings baseball package is that I get the chance to consistently watch out of market teams. Sure, ESPN and FOX broadcast games every so often but I am a baseball junkie and need my fix just about every night. While recently utilizing the package to its fullest capacity, I came to the realization that the Florida Marlins have a really tall starting rotation. And I don’t mean tall in a relative form, as in tall compared to Jimmy Rollins, but tall in general.

Andrew Miller, one of the prized prospects acquired for Miguel Cabrera, is listed at 6’6″. Josh Johnson and Chris Volstad each check in at 6’7″. Lastly, Sean West, a recent callup whom Marc deemed the best pitching prospect in their farm system, stands a mighty 6’8″. These four guys, all of whom are currently full-time starters for the team, average 79.0 inches. Of course, pitchers like Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco weigh down the average, but it got me thinking – who were the tallest rotations in the Retrosheet era?

To be considered eligible for this study, a pitcher needed to make at least 10 starts in a season. Then, the averages were taken for all teams using all qualifying pitchers. The tallest average rotations of the last 55 years have been:

Seattle Mariners, 1993: 77.33 inches
Arizona Diamondbacks, 2008: 77.16 inches
Seattle Mariners, 1992: 77.15 inches
Cleveland Indians, 2003: 77.12 inches
Seattle Mariners, 1991: 77.05 inches

Incidentally, these were the only five teams with an average exceeding 77 inches, meaning that the average pitcher on their team to make at least 10 starts stood 6’5″. Randy Johnson clearly played a huge role in these rankings, even though I avoided using a weighted average. Johnson was a starter for all three of the Mariners teams as well as last year’s incarnation of the Diamondbacks.

In 1993, Johnson was joined by the 6’6″ Erik Hanson, so he at least had one tall compadre. The year before, Johnson and Hanson received height contributions from the 6’4″ Brian Fisher. In 1991, Johnson and Hanson were joined by the 6’5″ Bill Krueger and the 6’4″ Brian Holman.

The 2008 Diamondbacks featured all 6’10” of Johnson, 6’5″ from both Dan Haren and Micah Owings, and the 6’4″ Doug Davis. The 2003 Indians were led by the 6’7″ CC Sabathia but received plenty of starts from the 6’6″ Jason Davis and 6’5″ Jake Westbrook.

Interestingly, no team other than the 2008 Florida Marlins had four or more pitchers exceeding 6’5″ in a season in which they each made 10+ starts. Volstad, Johnson and Miller were there last season, but substitute Mark Hendrickson for Sean West. The Marlins might not have the tallest average, yet at least, but they certainly have the most tall pitchers consistently making starts over the last half-century.

Cliff Lee had, by all accounts, a fantastic 2008 season en route to a Cy Young Award. What made his performance more remarkable was how he seemingly came out of nowhere, a back end of the rotation type of pitcher without any history of complete and utter dominance. Unfortunately, his success last season also paved the way for a wide array of speculation with regards to which pitcher will repeat such a turnaround this season.

Double unfortunately, many of those doing the speculating lack some sort of uniform criteria, leading to several names being floated that realistically fail to match the exactitudes of Lee’s season.

Pitchers like Zack Greinke, Josh Johnson and Chad Billingsley are mentioned the most often. All three of these righties have been dominant in April but do not really have that “Cliff Lee” feel in that they are fairly recently removed from prospect status. Lee experienced a bit of success in the majors for several seasons before an injury plagued 2007 and a dominant 2008; guys like Greinke, Johnson and Billingsley simply do not fit that bill.

Greinke suffered from depression early in his career, rebounded for a very stellar 2008 campaign and has allowed just one unearned run in four starts this season. That doesn’t place him in the same category as Lee. Greinke isn’t a non-descript pitcher suddenly becoming an ace but rather an ace in the making living up to his potential. The same can be said for Billingsley, whom many have been high on for over two years now. Johnson looked dominant before injuries got the best of him so he, too, does not belong in such conversations.

If people are really looking to try and find the “next Cliff Lee” they need to include back end pitchers with a smidgeon of success in their past who have looked solid so far. Someone like Wandy Rodriguez comes to mind. If Rodriguez finishes this season with incredible numbers then his season would have a similar feel to Lee’s. Looking for someone to replicate what Lee did goes beyond someone posting incredible numbers who is not an established ace like Johan Santana or Roy Halladay and too many analyses are failing to make this distinction.

Case in point, speculating on which pitchers are going to have breakout seasons and cement themselves as horses capable of carrying a team is fine… just do not label such speculations as searching for the next Cliff Lee. Or if such a label is involved, make sure the pitchers being discussed are actually in the same category as Lee and not just young pitchers coming into their own.

With the increased prominence of specialized bullpens, a much heavier reliance on pitch counts than several decades ago and the constant monitoring of health and fatigue, complete games have become somewhat of a rarity. Back in the early part of the 20th century, pitchers routinely finished what they started but nowadays it is considered a spectacular feat to complete five or more games in a season. Which makes yesterday’s action particularly interesting in that three different pitchers all tossed complete game gems.

Josh Johnson burst onto the scene in 2006 with a very solid rookie season. Injuries hindered his availability and progress in 2007 but he returned last season and put up great numbers in limited duty. Against the Mets and Johan Santana yesterday, Johnson showed the ability to dominate and why, when healthy, he can be as good as anyone else in the league. Throwing 113 pitches, 77 of which were strikes, Johnson went the distance, surrendering five hits and one run, walking one hitter and fanning seven. That brings his seasonal total to 15.2 innings, 12 hits, 1 earned run, 1 walk, 15 strikeouts.

Meanwhile, over in St. Louis, Kyle Lohse allowed a leadoff hit to Kazuo Matsui and then proceeded to retire the next 24 batters. Lohse, whose contract extension was largely ridiculed this offseason, finished with the tremendous line of 9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K. On the season, Lohse has surrendered just 8 hits in 16 innings and has issued only one free pass.

As dominant as Lohse looked, however, he didn’t best Aaron Harang’s line. On the heels of a first inning 2-run homer from Brandon Phillips, Harang had all the support he would need, giving up just three hits while walking none and fanning nine Buccos. Harang has now given up 10 hits and 1 earned run in 14 innings of work this season, walking three while recording 11 strikeouts.

All three of these pitchers worked efficiently with their pitches which is likely the only reason they were allowed to stay in the game so long. Especially in the case of Johnson given his aforementioned health issues. In terms of WPA, Johnson slightly edged out Harang, 0.571 to 0.569. At 0.460, Lohse clearly dominated his opponent but not necessarily to the same degree as Johnson and Harang, at least via win probability added. Then again, Lohse pitched in the least stressful of the three games, with a pLI of 0.79; Harang recorded a pLI of 0.94 with Johnson at 1.25.

Regardless, all three of these pitchers dominated and it was great to see them finish their games instead of being lifted for setup men and closers simply due to the specialized nature of the positions. Three complete games in the same day is very rare, especially over the last few decades, and I will have more on just how rare it is later tonight, calling my Retrosheet database into action.