Archive for J.P. Arencibia

The 2007 amateur draft was an exciting time if you were a fan of the San Diego Padres, the San Francisco Giants, the Texas Rangers or the Toronto Blue Jays. Each organization had at least five picks before the second round, thanks to supplemental picks obtained for the losses of free agents the previous winter. It’s been five years since that draft, so it’s a good time to look back and see which team made out best with its additional selections.

1. San Francisco Giants: The organization found the best player out of the four clubs, a potential No. 2 starter and possibly landed a couple of future utility infielders. The club also flipped one of the prospects for a veteran infielder.

Madison Bumgarner, LHP, 10th overall: Drafted out of high school, the southpaw reached the majors in his third professional season — technically his second, since he didn’t pitch after signing in 2007. The 22-year-old has the ceiling of a No. 2 or a No. 3 starter at the big-league level and already has one 200-plus inning season under his belt.

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General Manager: Alex Anthopoulos
Farm Director: Tony LaCava
Scouting Director: Andrew Tinnish

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

This is a tough system to rank beyond the Top 3 because the organization had such a down year in ’09 with a lot of prospects (hopefully temporarily) wiping out. On the plus side, there are quite a few talented players who are one good season away from shooting up the depth chart. The loss of Roy Halladay was a huge blow to the organization, as well as baseball in Canada, but the trade did infuse some much-needed talent.

1. Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, Triple-A
DOB: August 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Arizona State University (St. Louis)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Wallace is the guy that was always destined to be a Blue Jay. The club drafted him out of high school in ’05 even though he was an almost impossible signing due to his commitment to Arizona State. The club then had hoped to grab him in the ’08 draft, but St. Louis got to him first. Finally, the club nabbed him in a deal with Oakland (for Michael Taylor, who was obtained in the Roy Halladay deal). Wallace had a busy year in ’09 and played with three different minor league teams in double-A and triple-A. Overall on the year, he hit .293/.365/.458, which is not bad at all considering it was his first full season and he had a lot of change to deal with. The left-handed hitter fared very well against southpaws with an .897 OPS. Wallace projects to be a 20+ home run hitter with the ability to hit .280-.300. However, he needs to get a little more loft on the ball if he’s going to be a consistent power hitter. His walk rate took a bit of a hit with the promotion to triple-A (6.5%) compared to his double-A rate (11.7%), so he could stand to make some improvements in that area.

2. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Double-A
DOB: December 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 1st round – Texas HS (Philadelphia)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-96 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Drabek had an excellent ’09 season while returning from Tommy John surgery. He began the year in high-A ball and allowed 49 hits in 61.2 innings of work. His walk rate was solid at 2.77 BB/9 and he did not allow a home run, despite an average ground-ball rate. His strikeout rate was a nifty 10.80. Moved up to double-A, Drabek’s FIP rose from 1.82 to 3.83 but his walk rate was still good at 2.90 BB/9. His strikeout rate dropped to 7.10 K/9. He gave up nine homers in double-A, as his HR/9 rate increased to 0.84 and his ground-ball rate dropped a little below average. Overall, he allowed 141 hits in 158.0 innings of work. The right-hander will probably begin the year back in double-A where he can hopefully improve his worm-burning numbers before moving up to the hitter’s haven that is Las Vegas. Drabek has the potential to be a No. 1 or 2 starter.

3. Zach Stewart, RHP, Double-A
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Texas Tech University (Cincinnati)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

The club’s No. 1 prospect before the Halladay trade, Stewart is more suited to this position on a team’s Top 10 list. The right-hander has good stuff but the jury is still out on if he’s a starter or reliever. Toronto seems committed to him as a starter, which makes sense considering the bullpen depth that the club has at this point. Stewart pitched for four teams and at three levels in ’09. He began the year in high-A ball and posted a 2.63 FIP in seven starts. Moved up to double-A, he posted a 2.77 FIP in another seven starts. Jumped to triple-A with the Reds, he moved to the bullpen and had a 3.42 FIP in nine appearances before moving to Toronto where he had a 3.42 FIP in 11 games. His control dipped with each promotion, going from 1.70 to 2.43 to 4.90, so he clearly has some more work to do. On the plus side, his strikeout rate rose from 6.80 to 7.54 to 10.52. Along with his excellent K-rate, Stewart produces a lot of ground-balls (53% in ’09). If he can sharpen his change-up, he could be a solid No. 3 starter.

4. J.P. Arencibia, C, Triple-A
DOB: January 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – University of Tennessee
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It was an ugly year for Arencibia, who balked at making adjustments to his approach at the plate, which led to a dismal walk rate of just 5.2% (although it was an improvement over ’08). Arencibia had a breakout year in ’08 by hitting 27 homers and driving in 105 runs between high-A and double-A. However, his wOBA dropped from .402 in high-A to .348 in double-A… and it continued to slide in ’09, down to .316. His strikeout rate has gone from 18.5 to 21.0 to 24.5% during that same span. His BABIP also bottomed out in ’09 at .269, as his triple-slash line was just .236/.284/.444 in 466 triple-A at-bats. It was bad timing for Arencibia, who likely would have been in line for the starting gig in Toronto in 2010, if he had had even an average year at triple-A. On the positive side, Arencibia has made huge strides on defense and now projects to be an average-to-above-average MLB catcher. Unless his hitting improves, though, he could be relegated to platoon work or a back-up gig on a championship-caliber team.

5. Moises Sierra, OF, Double-A
DOB: September 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

With one of the strongest outfield arms in all of minor league baseball, Sierra made huge strides at the plate in ’09. Just 21, he hit .286/.360/.393 in 405 at-bats at high-A ball. His walk rate has improved each of the past three seasons and it was 7.4% in ’09. His strikeout rate has dropped each year and it was just 16.3% in high-A, as Sierra is obviously becoming more confident at the plate. He also improved his base running in ’09 and stole 10 bases in 12 tries after being successful just 12 times in 23 tries in ’08. On the negative side, his power has yet to develop, although he has the potential to hit for power. His ISO rate has dropped each of the past three seasons from .154 to .118 to .106. The club was obviously happy with Sierra’s performance in ’09, which included a wOBA of .353, and he received a late-season promotion to double-A. After appearing in just nine games at that level last season, Sierra should return there for 2010. He is a breakout candidate for the new season.

6. Brad Mills, LHP, Triple-A
DOB: March 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 4th round – University of Arizona
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 86-90 mph fastball, plus change-up, curveball

Mills almost made the club out of spring training in ’09 – after an excellent ’08 season – and his value skyrocketed early in the year. Unfortunately, he had some ups-and-downs at triple-A and also battled injuries, which has caused him to fall out of favor with a lot of prospect watchers. Despite his “off year,” Mills still posted a 3.80 FIP at triple-A and showed acceptable control with a walk rate of 3.74 BB/9 and a good, but not great, strikeout rate at 7.68 K/9. Given two starts in the Majors, Mills tried to nibble and lacked confidence in his fastball and curveball, both of which had negative values in a small sample size (7.2 innings). If healthy in 2010, Mills should open the year back in triple-A but he could be one of the first pitchers called up.

7. Travis D’Arnaud, C, Low-A
DOB: February 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 supplemental 1st round pick (Philadelphia)
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

D’Arnaud could be ranked higher on this list but I’m taking the conservative approach as he played at low-A in ’09. Like Wallace, the club had tried to acquire this catcher via the draft but he was nabbed with the 37th overall pick by the Phillies. Toronto, picking 38th, ended up with Brett Cecil (a nice compensation). D’Arnaud, who turns 21 shortly, hit .255/.319/.419 in 482 at-bats in low-A ball last year (His numbers were depressed by a .279 BABIP). He showed good power potential with 38 doubles and 13 homers (.164 ISO). The catcher also had a pretty good approach at the plate with a walk rate of 7.6% and a strikeout rate of 15.6%. He has a good defensive reputation but he threw out just 23% of base stealers. The system suddenly has good depth at the catching position with the likes or Arencibia, D’Arnaud, and Carlos Perez.

8. Henderson Alvarez, RHP, Low-A
DOB: April 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, plus change-up, slider

Alvarez is an exciting prospect because his fastball has been gaining velocity over the past two seasons and now sits comfortably in the low 90s, and it has excellent sink. That good downward movement resulted in a ground-ball rate of 51.4% at low-A in ’09. The right-hander gave up just one homer in 124.1 innings of work, while also posting a 2.43 FIP as a teenager. He also showed excellent control for his age with a walk rate of 1.38 BB/9. Still learning how to set up hitters, Alvarez’ strikeout rate was just 6.66 K/9 but his breaking ball has strikeout potential. He’ll move up to High-A ball in 2010 at the age just 20.

9. Carlos Perez, C, Rookie
DOB: October 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The organization has not had much luck handing out large contracts to big-named international free agents, but Perez joins Alvarez and Sierra as one of the Jays’ best under-the-radar Latin signings. The catcher is solid defensive (albeit it with the usual youthful development needs), and he’s also becoming quite a force at the plate thanks to his solid batting eye. Perez, 19, made his North American debut in ’09 at rookie ball and hit .291/.364/.433 in 141 at-bats. After walking more than he struck out in the Dominican Summer League in ’08, he posted a respectable walk rate of 9.8% in the Gulf Coast League. He also showed some line-drive pop (.142 ISO) and he is more athletic than most catchers.

10. Danny Farquhar, RHP, Double-A
DOB: February 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 10th round – University of Louisiana-Lafayette
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, cutter, slider, curveball, change-up

There are a number of other prospects that could have slid in here such as Gustavo Pierre, Tyler Pastornicky, Justin Jackson – interestingly enough all shortstops – because the system has so many sleepers in it right now (but few “can’t miss” names). Tim Collins was also an option here, but he projects to be a left-handed reliever, so his ceiling is a little lower than Farquhar who could develop into an eighth-inning guy, if not a closer. The right-hander comes at hitters from a variety of arm angles and can reach the low-90s from a sidearm slot. Perhaps because he throws so many different pitches – and with so many angles – Farquhar’s control has suffered and he posted a walk rate of 5.91 BB/9 in double-A. That obviously has to improve before he’ll have much success in the Majors. Despite that fact, he posted a 10.05 K/9 rate and allowed just one homer and 31 hits in 45.2 innings at the double-A level.

Up Next: The Washington Nationals

Toronto Blue Jays prospect J.P. Arencibia has had quite an interesting baseball career – both as an amateur and a pro. The catcher tied Alex Rodriguez‘ high-school mark for most career home runs at Westminster Christian high school in Florida. He was also a star player at the University of Tennessee, which led to him being selected 21st overall in the 2007 draft as the second college backstop taken; Matt Wieters went fifth overall to Baltimore.

A year after signing, Arencibia had a breakout year at the plate. He spent the season split between high-A and double-A with a combined triple-slash line of .298/.322/.527 with 27 homers and 105 RBI. It was the second-best offensive season for a catcher in 2008 behind… Wieters. Fast-forward to September 2009 and Wieters is playing behind the dish for Baltimore, while Arencibia has packed it in for the season and is probably back home in Florida. So what went wrong for the Jays prospect?

It can be tied to his approach at the plate, or more specifically, his walk rate. Even during his star campaign in 2008, Arencibia’s rate was 4.2% at high-A and just 2.6% at double-A. His strikeout rates were 18.5% and 21.0%. In 2009 at triple-A Las Vegas, his walk rate was 5.3% and his strikeout rate was 24.5%. With his power (.200+ career ISO), the whiff rate is reasonable. The walk rate, though, is not acceptable on any level. Overall in 2009, the right-handed hitter managed a line of just .236/.284/.444 with 21 homers in 466 at-bats.

Advanced pitchers (but many of whom are not good enough to pitch long-term in the Majors) exploited Arencibia’s approach. It’s pretty clear that there is no point in throwing him a quality strike with less than two strikes. He makes Mr. First-Pitch-Swinging Vernon Wells look down right selective. Ahead in the count, Arencibia hit .298, no doubt because pitchers had to groove a fastball down the middle of the plate. His strikeout rate was 13% in that situation. Behind in the count, Arencibia hit .185 with 63 Ks and zero walks in 162 at-bats (for a K rate of 32%).

Whereas Arencibia’s value has diminished as a hitter, his defense has actually improved significantly to the point where he is considered an above-average defensive catcher. When he was drafted, there were questions about whether or not he’d be able to stick as a catcher. Prior to the 2009 draft, Baseball America stated, “The verdict is out on whether he’ll stay behind the plate as a pro. His receiving skills are rudimentary at best, and his footwork prevents him from getting off better throws despite solid-average to plus arm strength.”

This excerpt is from the Las Vegas Review-Journal:

[Arencibia] has thrown out 33 percent of runners attempting to steal (20 of 61) since starting this season by gunning down just five of 31.

“Now I’m getting respected as a defensive catcher,” said Arencibia, who often throws out runners from his knees. “I feel I’m throwing better than I’ve ever thrown, and all aspects of my defense have gotten better.”

[Las Vegas] 51s manager Mike Basso, Toronto’s catching instructor the past two years and a former pro catcher, has worked extensively with Arencibia and said he has made great progress this season.

“He’s improved leaps and bounds from last year,” Basso said. “He has done a good job behind the plate, and he’s had spurts where he’s done good offensively.

As with most of the other 2009 Prospect Duds highlighted over the past two weeks, 2010 will be a big year for Arencibia. Once considered an offense-only prospect, he has the potential to be an all-around stud if he can learn from his mistakes. It’s been suggested more than once that he has been hesitant to change his aggressive ways, but that was before his struggles in 2009. If he can get that walk rate up to even 8-9%, the impact on his other numbers could be significant.

The Arizona Fall League rosters were announced by Major League Baseball last week. The league allows up-and-coming prospects (usually from high-A and double-A levels, as well as recent high draft picks) to continue honing their skills away from the fall instructional leagues held by each organization. Play will begin in early October and run until late November with the six teams – each one made up of five organizations’ players – continually facing each other.

Over the next week, we’ll take a look at some of the more interesting names on each team. The rosters that were recently released are preliminary rosters and some players will be added, while others could be removed. Today, we’re kicking things off with the Phoenix Desert Dogs, a team that has won the AFL championship title for each of the past five seasons. The club is still waiting for the Toronto and Oakland organizations to assign multiple pitchers to the club.

The Phoenix Desert Dogs (Click HERE for the entire roster)
Oakland, Toronto, Baltimore, Washington, Tampa Bay

Brandon Erbe | RHP | Baltimore
Lost behind the big three of Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and Jake Arrieta in Baltimore, Erbe has the raw stuff to match up with them. Still only 21 years of age, Erbe battled through injuries this year and missed two month of the ’09 season. Even so, he has allowed just 38 hits in 60 innings of work in double-A.

Heath Rollins | RHP | Tampa Bay
Another pitcher who gets lost amongst the “big names,” Rollins has put up some solid pro numbers. He slipped a bit this year in double-A and has been too hittable: 147 hits in 134 innings of work. The right-hander has also lost 2.7 K/9 off of his strikeout rate, although he’s maintained a solid walk rate at 2.23 BB/9. He looks like a middle reliever.

Stephen Strasburg | RHP | Washington
The man everyone wants to see will be making his pro debut with the desert dogs and you can pretty much guarantee that there will be a lot of eyes on his first start. Despite his inexperience, Strasburg could dominate the league… but he’ll also be under a lot of pressure.

Drew Storen | RHP | Washington
The Nationals’ other first-round pick in 2009, Storen has already made 26 appearances in pro ball. Hopefully he won’t see too many innings in the league as he’s already thrown 77.1 innings (college+minors), which is a higher workload than he’s ever had in any other season. His control has been off a bit in eight double-A appearances but Storen is almost MLB ready.

J.P. Arencibia | C | Toronto
Arencibia ended the 2008 season as one of the Jays’ brightest young stars, but things have gone horribly for him in 2009 despite playing in a park (and league) that favors hitters immensely. At fault is Arencibia’s terrible walk rate and hack-tastic approach (2.6 BB% in ’08, 5.3 BB% in ’09), as well as his unwillingness to change. On the plus side, he’s made himself into a very good defensive player, which was a knock against him coming out of college.

Derek Norris | C | Washington
While Arencibia’s star is down, Norris’ is way up. Only 20, he’s shown a nice well-rounded approach with a solid average (.288), good power (23 homers in 423 at-bats, .229 ISO) and a walk rate of 16.1 BB%. The strikeouts are there too (26.8 K%) but the power is a fair trade off. The sky is the limit for Norris, although he may be tired for the AFL after hitting just .169 in August, which is by far his worst month of the year.

Josh Bell | 3B | Baltimore
Acquired earlier this season from the Dodgers, Bell has had a breakout season and could be manning the hot corner for Baltimore everyday by mid-2010. He has a solid understanding of the strike zone, as well as raw power (.250 ISO). Defensively, he has a strong arm, but a slow first step.

Jemile Weeks | 2B | Oakland
Rickie Weeks‘ brother is looking to make a name for himself. The second baseman missed the beginning of the year with an injury but he caught on fire as soon as he was able to take the field. His numbers have been down significantly since a promotion to double-A, but it only spans 72 at-bats. Weeks has yet to utilize his plus speed, but he’s shown more power than expected.

Grant Desme | OF | Oakland
Speaking of power, Desme has made the most of his opportunity to play this year after injuries limited him to just two games in 2008. The former second round draft pick has really opened some eyes by hitting 31 homers and stealing 40 bases between low-A and high-A. The 23-year-old outfielder also swings and misses a lot (30 K%).

2008 Draft Slot: 17th overall
Top Pick: David Cooper, 1B, University of California
Best Pick: David Cooper
Keep an Eye On: A.J. Jimenez, C, Puerto Rico high school (9th round)
Notes: A.J. Jimenez slid in the draft because of concerns about an elbow injury that proved to be less serious than originally thought. He is a defense-first catcher that has above-average athleticism. David Cooper has been in a neck-and-neck race with St. Louis’ Brett Wallace (a former Jays draft pick out of high school) for the fastest moving college hitter from the draft. Both began the 2009 season in Double-A; Cooper played at three minor league levels in 2008. The club’s second and third round picks do not thrill me, but the club made up for it with Jimenez and Eric Thames (seventh round), a college outfielder who also slid due to injury concerns.

2007 Draft Slot: 16th overall
Top Pick: Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Texas high school
Best Pick: J.P. Arencibia, C, University of Tennessee (21st overall)
Worst Pick: Trystan Magnuson, RHP, University of Louisville (supplemental first round)
Notes: The club had seven picks before the third round so it gambled on some players and also dove head-long into the prep picks for the first time in years (After dipping the toe in the previous season with Travis Snider). The results have been muted so far with all three top prep picks struggling: Kevin Ahrens, Justin Jackson, and John Tolisano. Jackson appears to be the best of the bunch but he has huge contact issues (as in he doesn’t make much). Trystan Magnuson was a big overdraft for a fifth-year college senior who had only really dominated for one season. J.P. Arencibia, though, has 30-homer power as a catcher – but he might hit .230. Left-handed starters Brad Mills (4th round), Marc Rzepczynski (5th), and second baseman Brad Emaus (11th) were good value for their draft slot.

2006 Draft Slot: 14th overall
Top Pick: Travis Snider, OF, Washington state high school
Best Pick: Travis Snider
Worst Pick: Luke Hopkins, 1B, New Mexico State U. (5th round)
Notes: Fourth round pick Brandon Magee has been nothing special, but Luke Hopkins was even worse. He signed on the dotted line for $172,000, played half a season and then retired. Catcher Brian Jeroloman was a nice grab in the sixth round and Scott Campbell (10th) could be a future offensive-minded utility or platoon player. Second baseman Cole Figueroa (drafted by the Padres in 2008) would have been a nice sign out of high school, but he went to the University of Florida. Travis Snider makes the draft, though, as he is already playing regularly in the Majors.

2009 Draft Slot: 20th
Draft Preference (2006-08): Hitters with the first pick, and it’s been prep hitters in two of the last three drafts
MLB Club Need: Starting Pitching, Shortstop
Organizational Need: Third base, Shortstop, Right-handed pitching, Outfield
Organizational Strength: Second base, Left-handed pitching, Catching
Notes: By picking 20th, the Jays will likely be looking at a college hitter or pitcher but it’s hard to know at this point how the draft will unfold. Luckily, the organization has a supplemental first round pick as well as an extra third-round pick, both of which come as compensation for the loss of free agent A.J. Burnett. On the downside, those extra picks would have been much higher if the Yankees had not also signed C.C. Sabathia and Mark Teixeira.

A number of prospects have risen swiftly though the system for the Jays in the past year. The club has also re-committed itself to finding prospects in Latin American, as well as Australia. The system is better than some think it is, but there is still a lot of work to be done. There are some interesting sleeper prospects in the low minors.

AAA/AA
The club has three southpaw starters that could see significant time in Toronto in 2009: Ricky Romero, Brad Mills, and Brett Cecil. All three received long looks this spring with Romero and Mills still under consideration for starting rotation spots. Romero, a former sixth overall draft pick out of college, has had a relatively disappointing career to this point, although he is making strides with his fastball command. He split 2008 between Double-A and Triple-A. Mills was selected in the 2007 draft as a college senior and he pitched at three levels last year and posted ERAs of 2.55, 1.35, and 1.10. Overall, he made 27 starts and succeeds by being aggressive and attacking the strike zone with average stuff. Cecil has an above-average repertoire for a southpaw and was a good college closer before being converted to a starter by the Jays. He needs to work on his fastball command but he could be ready by the middle of 2009. Cecil was slowed in 2008 by injuries but he still pitched at three levels and topped out in Triple-A.

Travis Snider should be considered an early favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year award, especially with fellow rookies Matt Wieters (Baltimore) and David Price (Tampa Bay) beginning the year in the minors (What a good year for rookies in the AL East). Snider, 21, will be the everyday left fielder for Toronto. He was slowed at the beginning of 2008 by a bum elbow but he still managed to play at three minor league levels before making a 24-game appearance in the Majors where he hit .301/.338/.466 with two homers in 73 at-bats. Snider likely won’t hit for a high average early in his career thanks to high strikeout totals (32 K% in 362 Double-A at-bats), but he should provide plenty of power and he is a better outfielder than many think.

J.P. Arencibia is another powerful bat for the Jays. The catcher was selected in the first round of the 2007 draft out of college and split last season between High-A and Double-A. He hit .315/.344/.560 in 248 at-bats before a promotion to Double-A, where he posted a line of .282/.302/.496 in 262 at-bats. Arencibia tied Wieters for home runs with 27 but drove in more runs with 105. The downside to his offensive game is that he walked just 18 times last year, including a walk rate of just 2.6 BB% in Double-A. Arencibia will have to improve upon his patience if he is going to be an impact player in the Majors. He has made significant strides in improving his defense.

Scott Campbell began his pro career as a second baseman but is penciled in at third base for the Triple-A club in 2009, which will help add to his versatility. The left-handed hitter cannot hit southpaws at all and he has limited power so his future is likely as a platoon infielder or bench player. Campbell’s defense at second base was nothing to write home about. Offensively, though, he skipped over High-A ball in 2008 to play at Double-A and had his best offensive season. The 24-year-old infielder hit .302/.398/.427 with nine home runs in 417 at-bats. He posted rates of 13.7 BB% and 15.1 K%.

A+/A
The left-handed Tim Collins is generously listed as 5’7” which is why he went undrafted out of high school. General manager J.P. Ricciardi’s father noticed the pitcher at a high school game and tipped off his son, which allowed the Jays to buy Collins, 19, away from a junior college offer late in 2007. Last season in A-ball, the southpaw used a plus curveball and average fastball to allowed just 36 hits in 68.1 innings of work. He also posted rates of 4.21 BB/9 and 12.91 K/9.

Yet another southpaw, Luis Perez was a late blooming Latin America prospect who did not come over to North America until he was 22. Although he started off very poorly at A-ball in 2008, Perez turned things around. He allowed 136 hits in 137.1 innings and posted rates of 3.34 BB/9 and 8.98 K/9. In 212.2 innings in North America, the Dominican hurler has allowed just four home runs and he induces a ton of ground balls, along with the healthy number of strikeouts.

Second baseman Brad Emaus opened some eyes in his first full season. Originally viewed as a future utility player in the Scott Spiezio mold, Emaus now looks like a future regular, whose offense could possibly be strong enough to warrant a move to third base. In 2008, Emaus hit .302/.380/.463 with 12 home runs and 12 stolen bases. The 23-year-old also played well in the Hawaii Winter Baseball league with a .333 average and 17 walks (with just seven strikeouts) in 81 at-bats.

David Cooper was the club’s 2008 first round draft pick out of college. Cooper, a first baseman, was considered a step below the Top 3 first sackers in the draft: Justin Smoak, Brett Wallace (now a full-time third baseman), and Yonder Alonso. Regardless, Cooper had a stunning debut and played at three levels, topping out in High-A ball. The left-handed hitter hit .300 or more at each level and batted .304/.373/.435 with one home run in 92 High-A at-bats. Cooper has the skill to bat .300 in the Majors but his power is no better than average for the position and he needs a fair bit of work on his defense.

Raw+Toolsy+Prep = Exactly the type of player Toronto historically avoided under general manager J.P. Ricciardi. Justin Jackson, though, represented a departure from that stance, and Toronto is glad it made the change. The athletic and gifted fielder is still raw but he has displayed some promising skills at the plate and on the base paths, as well as in the field. The 20 year old shortstop hit just .238/.340/.368 with seven homers and 17 stolen bases in 454 at-bats, but he was one of the better hitters on his A-ball club in the first half of the season before tiring in his first full pro season.

Eric Eiland is another raw high schooler who was signed in 2007, like Jackson. Eiland though did not join Jackson in A-ball until later in the season after beginning the year in extended spring training. Once he reached A-ball, Eiland hit .233/.334/.305 with 23 stolen bases in 249 at-bats. He needs to work on his approach at the plate after posting a strikeout rate of 32.1 K%. His walk rate was a reasonable 12.9%.

Kevin Ahrens was the club’s first pick of the 2007 draft out of a Texas high school but he has fallen down the depth chart below both Arencibia and Jackson, two players drafted after him. Ahrens, like Jackson, struggled mightily in the second half of his first full pro season. Overall, he hit .259/.329/.367 with five home runs in 460 at-bats. Defensively, he is still getting accustomed to manning third base after playing shortstop in high school.

SS/R
Antonio Jimenez and Carlos Perez highlight a deep crop of catchers in the lower levels of the system. Jimenez was selected out of a Puerto Rico high school during the 2008 draft, while Perez was a quiet Latin America signing in 2007. Jimenez appeared in just 19 games after signing and hit .191/.255/.234. His defense is considered ahead of his bat and he is very athletic for a catcher (He stole five bases in seven attempts). Perez opened some eyes in his first pro season in the Dominican Summer League in 2008 and hit .306/.459/.378 in 196 at-bats. He also walked 52 times with just 28 strikeouts. His defense is not as strong as Jimenez’ but he is good enough to remain behind the dish long term.

The organization significantly improved its middle infield depth with the 2008-09 signings of Gustavo Pierre, Garis Pena and Nick Bidois. Both Pierre and Pena were signed out of Latin America for six-figure contracts, while Bidois was inked out of Australia. All three teenagers will move slowly and Pierre had Tommy John surgery during the off-season.

Up Next: The Atlanta Braves

The Graduate: Jesse Carlson | Born: December 1980 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Southpaw reliever Jesse Carlson finally reached the Major Leagues at the age of 27 and in his second tour of duty in the Jays’ system. Originally a 15th round selection out of college by Detroit, Carlson bounced around the minors for parts of seven seasons and spent four seasons at Double-A. He received his first MLB promotion early in 2008 and ended up appearing in 69 big league games. He allowed just 41 hits in 60 innings of work with rates of 3.15 BB/9 and 8.25 K/9. A fastball-slider pitcher, Carlson actually used his slider more often than his fastball in 2008 (42.7% to 56.1%). Bill James’ projection for 2009 expects Carlson to remain a productive left-handed reliever, leaving the Jays with four quality left-handed relievers: Carlson, B.J. Ryan, Scott Downs, and Brian Tallet.

The Riser: J.P. Arencibia | Born: January 1986 | Catcher

A 2007 first-round draft pick, J.P. Arencibia is arguably one of the Top 3-5 catching prospects in all of baseball, with the Orioles’ Matt Wieters firmly at No. 1. Arencibia split 2008 between High-A ball and Double-A and hit 27 home runs and drove in 105 runs. He also significantly improved his defence and will have no problems remaining behind the plate, which was a concern during his college career. Arencibia needs to work on his patience at the plate if he is going to hit for a respectable average at the Major League level. He walked less than four percent of the time this past season and often swings at the first pitch, which is something experienced pitchers will exploit.

The Tumbler: Trystan Magnuson | Born: June 1985 | Right-Handed Pitcher

A late-blooming college reliever, Trystan Magnuson was nabbed by the Jays in the 2007 supplemental first round as a college senior for his impressive fastball. Moved to the starting rotation in 2008, Magnuson was brutal in the first half and posted an 11.85 ERA in five May starts. He settled down in the second half of the season. Overall, he allowed 91 hits in 81.2 innings and posted rates of 3.86 BB/9 and 5.40 K/9. He’ll turn 24 in June and will probably begin 2009 back in A-ball so it might be wise to converted him back to a reliever in the hopes that he can accelerate his timetable to the Majors.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Tyler Pastornicky | Born: December 1989 | Shortstop

The Jays jumped back into the prep drafting pool in 2008, after finding success in 2007 – the first year the organization had spent heavily on drafting high school players in five years. Taken in the fifth round, Tyler Pastornicky was a little more advanced than the Jays had expected and he hit .263/.348/.356 with 27 stolen bases in 50 Rookie Ball games. He also took 21 walks, while striking out just 21 times. Impressively, his offensive numbers improved in each month, from June to August, as he made adjustments. Pastornicky showed solid hands in the field too, and he made just six errors in 38 games at shortstop.

The ’09 Sleeper: Brad Emaus | Born: March 1986 | Second Baseman

There weren’t many players that improved their stocks more in 2008 than Brad Emaus. The second baseman, in just his first full season, impressed offensively despite skipping over A-ball and beginning the year in High-A ball. Emaus hit .302/.381/.463 with a .161 ISO during the regular season and then dominated the Hawaii Winter Baseball league by hitting .333/.447/.494 (and taking 17 walks compared to just seven strikeouts) in 26 games. The Jays now have some depth up the middle, as fellow second base prospect Scott Campbell also had a breakout season in Double-A. At worst, Emaus should be able to have a similar career to former A’s infielder Scott Spiezio.

Up Next: The Colorado Rockies

There are two talented catchers in the upper levels of the minor leagues and both of those players were selected in the first round of the 2007 draft. Matt Wieters was recently named the Minor League Player of the Year by Baseball America, while J.P. Arencibia is not far behind in the discussion of the best catching prospects in baseball.

Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles
Ht: 6-4, Wt: 230
Born: May 1986
Drafted: 2007 fifth overall, Georgia Tech

Wieters does it all very well: He hits, he plays defence and he leads by example. The hulking catcher did not play pro ball in his draft year due to signing late but he began 2008 in High-A ball. He hit .345/.448/.576 with 15 homers in 229 at-bats. Wieters was then promoted to Double-A where he performed even better. He hit .365/.460/.625 with 12 homers in 208 at-bats. The switch-hitter batted .393 against southpaws and .354 versus right-handers. Overall on the season, Wieters walked 82 times with 76 strikeouts. Defensively, he nailed 40 percent of base runners attempting to steal. He also made nine errors with three passed balls.

J.P. Arencibia | Toronto Blue Jays
Ht: 6-1, Wt: 210
Born: January 1986
Drafted: 2007 21st overall, University of Tennessee

One of the biggest differences between the two players is Arencibia’s lack of patience, especially compared to Wieters’. The Jays prospect walked just 18 times on the season with 101 strikeouts in 510 combined at-bats. Even so, Arencibia hit .315/.344/.560 with 13 homers in 248 High-A at-bats. He was then promoted to Double-A where he hit .282/.302/.496 with 14 homers in 262 at-bats. Overall, he drove in 105 runs. Arencibia has more raw power potential than Wieters, but the Orioles catcher is the superior hitter at this point. Arencibia is also still a little rough around the edges when it comes to catching (10 errors, 15 passed balls), although he did throw out 34 percent of base stealers.

The Jays are sending Arencibia to the Arizona Fall League specifically to work on his patience at the plate and they do not care how well he hits as long as he works the count to his advantage. Wieters has also been sent to the Arizona Fall League, which is a little puzzling considering his already-solid skills and the long season that he endured during his first pro season. A regular full season of minor league baseball is already much longer than a college season, especially when a player is squatted down behind home plate. But that said, a little extra hard work never hurt anybody.