Archive for Kelly Johnson

While I’m sure they are still celebrating in St. Louis, reality is going to set in quick, as the Cardinals have a busy off-season ahead of them. Not only do they have to replace their hall-of-fame manager, but they have to decide what to do with the only first baseman the city has known for the better part of a decade: Albert Pujols.

There are numerous factors that are going to affect whether Pujols returns — and many of them difficult to quantify. Letting Pujols walk would be a public-relations nightmare, and it would certainly hurt the Cardinals at the gate – but I’m not going to pretend that I know what that magic number would be. There’s also the question of Pujols’ declining ability as he ages, and whether he will live up to what will inevitably be a contract worth hundreds of millions of dollars. While I’m sure we’ll cover that topic in depth here at FanGraphs, that’s not what I want to cover today.

What I would like to suggest might sound blasphemous, but given the construction of their current roster — and downplaying the previously mentioned factors — it might not be the worst thing in the world for the Cardinals if Pujols walks away.

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The Diamondbacks traded Kelly Johnson to the Blue Jays on Tuesday, getting Aaron Hill and John McDonald in return. Arizona’s motives for the trade are questionable, as the deal could actually hurt their playoff odds.

Eno Sarris covered the deal from the Jays point of view, noting that free-agent-to-be Johnson will likely be used to extract compensatory draft picks this offseason. Johnson is mere percentage points from attaining Type A status — and prior to the trade, he was the highest-ranked non-Type A middle infielder. The Jays employed this tactic last season when it traded for Miguel Olivo on the day before free agency started and allowed him to walk. The Jays again are shrewdly exploiting the compensation system.

Add to that the idea that Johnson is a better player than Hill and the deal makes plenty of sense for Toronto. But does it make any sense for the Diamondbacks, who are in the thick of a divisional race?

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At the winter meetings this week, John Coppolella, the Braves Director of Baseball Administration, was kind enough to sit down with me and answer some questions about the Braves, his role on the team, and the current state of statistical analysis in the game. He’s a bright young executive in the game, and has a great perspective on the work that front offices do, so this was nothing but a pleasure.

Eno Sarris: What is your role with the Braves exactly? Can you describe what you do?

John Coppolella: I help out [General Manager] Frank Wren and [Assistant General Manager] Bruce Manno. I help them by executing our depth charts, prospect lists, arbitration cases and our statistical analysis. When we break down players, we will use stuff that we find on sites like FanGraphs sometimes. We were in the room a few days back, and we were sorting guys by UZR/150. There’s probably about 10 or 15 we will take from your site, five or 10 from here, from there. We’re always trying to find new information.

Eno Sarris: That’s interesting. I was going to ask you about how aware you are of the stuff that is out there. In particular, valuing defense – there’s a lot of work being done right now trying to figure out how far we’ve gotten with defensive statistics. How do you feel about defensive statistics – do you have any advice for those that are working on defensive numbers?

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I don’t think I’m exaggerating, reader, when I say that the study of baseball and its attendant joys is the single most important field of research in our time. It is — as we speak — the most commonly offered and pursued doctoral degree program among our nation’s universities. Not only that, but, despite these tough economic times, those same universities are actively pursuing qualified professors to meet the large and growing demand from their undergraduate communities. The Fidrych Institute — i.e. the think tank most integral to effecting joy-related policy changes — currently receives substantial funding from Republicans, Democrats, the Green Party (who, if my numbers are correct, allocated something like 37% of their annual budget to the Institute), and Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi, who, despite knowing almost nothing about baseball, made a generous contribution directly from the pockets of working Italians. Finally, you don’t need me to tell you that President Obama’s recent initiative to make baseballing/joy-related curriculum a greater part of elementary education — well, it’s a testament to the capacity of the subject to capture the imaginations of every man, woman, child, and whatever Mickey Rourke is.

One thing that has recently come to light from the surfeit of excellent research appearing all over the place — a potentially joy-inducing quality not covered by the Very Hallowed Taxonomy — is the effect that player movement might have on our interest in a player. Certainly, this is part of the reason we anticipate great joy from new Mariner (and All-Joy reliever) Brandon League, who has gone from being a boring old Blue Jay to one of Jack Zduriencik’s Chosen Few.

It’s probably fair to say that player movement alone isn’t enough for All-Joy consideration, but when it appears in tandem with another joy-inducing quality or two, it’s enough to inspire what Emily Dickinson called the thing with feathers (and, no, it’s not Mickey Rourke).

Here are two players who’ve changed teams this offseason, with their respective All-Joy credentials.

2B: Kelly Johnson, Arizona (2,5)
Johnson has always been on the fringes of All-Joy contention, anyway. For one, His 13% walk rate and 121 wRC+ in 2007 — from a second baseman, no less — are notable. The fact that he posted those numbers after missing all of 2006 due to Tommy John surgery makes his 2007 production even more significant. Also, there’s the fact that he made the shift to second base from left field — which, even if his second base numbers haven’t been great (-7.4 UZR/150 over the last three years), is still worthy of comment.

What has catapulted Johnson into the All-Joy spotlight entering the 2010 season? Two things, really. For one, there’s the issue of his batted ball numbers. After posting BABIPs of .330 and .344 in 2007 and 2008, that number fell to .249 in 2009. Secondly, there’s the move to Arizona’s Chase Field. According to the most recent edition of the Bill James Handbook, Turner Field has had park indices of 97 and 94 for left-handed batting average and home runs, respectively. Chase Field rates as a 103 and 115 in the same categories. The likelihood of Johnson hitting something like 2007’s 16 home runs is pretty good, I think.

UTIF: Adam Rosales, Oakland (2,4,5)
As a 26-year-old in the International League last year, Rosales posted an MLE either of .297/.347/.505 (Minor League Splits) or .309/.373/.573 (Baseball Prospectus), depending on who you believe. A certain type of reader might cite the paucity of plate appearances (125) and cite sample size issue. To which gesture I’d reply: “Stop it with your Tyranny of Reason!”

CHONE projects Rosales to have something like a league-average bat, and, provided that TotalZone isn’t a lying liarface from Liarville, it appears as though Rosales can handle shortstop. Now that he’s in Oakland, the chances of him securing some playing time have probably improved. Yeah, he’ll still be a back-up at short and second, but at least he’ll be the primary back-up. That was less the case in Cincy, where he had Paul Janish sticking around and the specter of Dusty Baker with which to contend.

For those keeping score at home, here’s the current All-Joy Roster:

C	Kurt Suzuki
1B	Brian Myrow
2B	Kelly Johnson
SS	Ben Zobrist
LF	Chris Heisey
CF	Ryan Sweeney
RF	Daniel Nava
UTIF	Adam Rosales

SP	Billy Buckner
SP	Jason Godin
RP	Brandon League
RP	Kevin Jepsen

With the excellent feedback we’ve had to the Fan Projections, it’s becoming more difficult to find players with too few votes. It’s for that reason that a couple of today’s targets are over the 30-ballot threshold. Still, none of these guys is close to the century mark, either.

Said targets are Kelly Johnson, Martin Prado, and Ryan Roberts.

Johnson has just inked a deal with Arizona for one year at $2MM.

Prado is the man who stole the starting second base job from Johnson last year in Atlanta.

Roberts took over starting duties in Arizona last year after Felipe Lopez left town, posting a 108 wRC+ in 351 PAs.

If you’ve taken an introductory math class, you’ve probably seen the bell curve graph that explains how the distribution of things are grouped around the average and thinner at the extremes. National League second baseman have decided to band together and disprove normal distribution in 2008, however.

As a group, they are hitting .267/.335/.415 for a .750 OPS. Normal distribution would suggest that we’d find a cluster of players with an OPS between .700 and .800, but in reality, only one of the 13 qualified second baseman falls in that range – Luis Castillo. The other twelve are split into two distinct groups – tremendous and terrible. This morning, we look at the guys excelling, and tonight, we’ll look at those who are dragging the average down.

We’ve talked about the amazing years Chase Utley and Dan Uggla are having. Both are having historically tremendous seasons for a second baseman, and they’re mortal locks to represent the NL at the all-star game. But behind those two MVP candidates are four pretty good players in their own right.

Orlando Hudson: .303/.372/.503, 0.82 WPA/LI
Brandon Phillips: .287/.336/.529, 0.55 WPA/LI
Kelly Johnson: .299/.362/.495, 0.34 WPA/LI
Mark DeRosa: .297/.384/.449, 0.66 WPA/LI

All of these guys are having seasons that would create a strong case for an all-star bid in any other year. Hudson and Phillips both add terrific defense to their offensive value, while Johnson and DeRosa continue to be the under the radar stars for their respective teams. You really can’t go wrong with any of these six guys, as all of them are having tremendously valuable seasons.