Archive for kole calhoun

In the grand scheme of things, evaluating a baseball player’s current ability isn’t that difficult. If you have a sampling of their statistics and have a chance to watch a handful of their games, a reasonably informed observer will come up with a pretty good estimate of the player’s current talent level. Figuring out how good a player is right now requires some skill, but it’s nothing compared to having that same information about a player and attempting to forecast six years into the future.

That’s the job of a scout. You get a handful of looks at a 19 year old, you talk to a few people, you glance at some numbers, and then you’re asked to predict what that player is going to look like at 25. It’s a big ask and as a result, there’s a pretty big margin of error. A good scout should be more accurate than a decently competent observer, but no one would expect a scout to be right on every player. There’s just too much uncertainty involved.

One would hope that a scout doesn’t miss any Mike Trouts or bet high on many Jeff Larishs, but they’re going to miss good players and speak highly of bad one’s during the course of their careers. That’s especially true with respect to very young players.

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After a quick glance at the Top 15 list it should be fairly clear that this is one of the weakest minor league systems in Major League Baseball. Poor drafts (mainly due to lost draft picks from free agent acquisitions) and trades have decimated the system, which has almost no starting pitcher depth to speak of.

#1 Kaleb Cowart (3B)

The 18th overall selection of the 2010 amateur draft, Cowart has moved methodically through the Angels system. The third baseman split 2012 between two A-ball levels with modest results. Cowart, 20, has shown the ability to do a little bit of everything – flashing five tools. He currently has good gap power that is transitioning into more over-the-fence pop and he’s not afraid to take a walk. He swings and misses a fair amount but he’s young and still improving his pitch recognition. A switch-hitter, he tends to hit for better average from the right side of the plate but flashes solid power from the left side. When I saw him in April, Cowart was swinging around the ball and showed a need to get quicker to the ball.

At the hot corner, Cowart shows a strong arm –although it’s inaccurate at times –and sure hands. The athletic fielder has average range.The Georgia native was a two-way player in high school so his slower development is not a surprise — or a red flag. He has the potential to develop into an above-average third baseman, both on offense and defense. After struggling in the Arizona Fall League at the conclusion of the regular season, Cowart could return to the high-A level to open 2013 with an eye on reaching double-A in the second half of the season. Read the rest of this entry »

Xander Bogaerts, SS/3B, Boston Red Sox
Current Level: A+
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 1st
Current Value: Star-in-the-making

Bogaerts lept into the hearts of prospect watchers (and diehard Boston fans) last season when he took the full-season South Atlantic League by storm and produced a wRC+ of 120 despite his relative lack of experience. Bogaerts, still just 19, is now leaving his impression on the high-A Carolina League. Although he’s currently hitting .278, Bogaerts’ power display is down from last year (.249 to .137 ISO) but he’s a better all-around hitter; his walk rate has increased more than 1% over last year and his strikeout rate has dropped almost 6% to 18.6%. He’s still playing at an above-average level for his league with a wRC+ of 117. The Aruba native’s ceiling remains huge and he’s eventually going to tap back into his above-average raw power.

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