Archive for Kyle Lohse

The Cardinals recently extended Jake Westbrook and converted his 2013 mutual option to a guaranteed salary with a new mutual option for 2014. St. Louis also began to shift its focus towards keeping Adam Wainwright in town beyond next season since he’s rounding into form after elbow surgery. Both starters have pitched very well for the Cardinals this season, and are major reasons for the recent surge that has Mike Matheny’s squad making inroads towards a wild-card berth.

It’s a tad surprising, though, that the team hasn’t engaged in any contract discussions with Kyle Lohse. An impending free agent who has pitched very well in the past two seasons, Lohse figures to draw a great deal of interest on the free-agent market. He likely will hit the market because, according to Jayson Stark, Cardinals executives have told others that they’re going to let the situation play out. Stark translated that to mean “free agency: here he comes.”

The Cardinals already have a crowded and effective starting rotation and Lohse made some sense as the odd man out. Regardless, he’s once again pitching effectively in a contract year, and he’s establishing himself as an innings-eater with good peripherals and solid run-prevention skills. That’s a roundabout way of saying that he’s a very good pitcher. Heading into his mid-30s, Lohse has begun pitching much better than his perception around would appear to indicate.

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The Phillies and Cardinals split the first two games of their division series with each team winning in dramatic fashion. The teams now travel to St. Louis for two more contests after the Cardinals accomplished their goal of splitting on the road. However, both games could have turned out much differently had Charlie Manuel and Tony La Russa more actively managed their starting pitchers.

Kyle Lohse and Cliff Lee were each removed three batters too late, and as reactionary measures after the worst had already transpired. Being proactive in the manager’s seat is very important this time of year, when every out is crucial and a significant mistake can cripple playoff hopes. While Lohse’s implosion and non-removal seems more egregious given the nature of the Phillies comeback, the decision to leave Lee in the game for the seventh inning was just as ill-advised.

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One of the most difficult aspects in the world of analyzing baseball players involves separating our perception of a player from his actual true talent level. Early last season, Cliff Lee’s previously established talent level prevented many from believing that he could produce such an incredible season. After the small sample of dominance in April fans questioned if Lee was “for real.” As May came to its close fans began to hop aboard his bandwagon. Following several more starts in June people became convinced that the lanky lefty had in fact broken through a plateau and become a different pitcher. Lee’s is an extreme example but Kyle Lohse had a very similar season.

After essentially posting league average numbers since 2002, Lohse put up 2.4 wins in 2007, splitting time with the Reds and Phillies, in two very homer-happy stadiums. He signed a 1-yr/$4 mil contract with the Cardinals in the off-season and became the low-risk bargain of the year by putting up 3.1 wins. Following the success, the Cardinals must have been convinced that Lohse, too, was “for real” and inked him a much-ridiculed four-year extension.

Just like Lee, fans struggled to believe that a pitcher previously considered to be average at best could somehow become so effective. Entering this season most anticipated a regression from Lohse towards the production levels of 2002-06, numbers that certainly merited his spot on a roster but did not necessarily call for an average annual value of $10+ mil per season.

Entering today’s action, Lohse had made three starts and amassed 21 innings, scattering 13 hits, just one of which left the yard. Never a dominant strikeout pitcher, his raw total of 12 and rate of 5.14 were hardly earth-shattering but he had only issued three free passes to the tune of a Maddux-esque 1.29 BB/9. All told, Lohse boasted a 2.57 ERA and 3.14 FIP, good enough for 0.6 wins after a mere three weeks.

In a 12-8 win against the Mets earlier today, Lohse surrendered just one earned run over five innings of work, another quality outing in which he lowered the earned run rate to just 2.42. Lohse likely would have continued to pitch past the fifth however he sustained an injury covering first base and is going to undergo an MRI to see where he stands. Granted, he has only made four starts this season, but this is beginning to have a familiar feel, namely in that there are probably plenty of fans wondering if last season plus this April is enough to prove that Lohse has become a different and much more effective pitcher.

One way to find out is to check out his pre-season projections as they are derived primarily from weighting data from the previous seasons. Before his stellar 2008 campaign, Lohse’s previous three FIPs were 5.06, 4.55, 4.34. He clearly displayed signs of improvement in the controllable skills department but a crude projection for 2008 would call for a mark somewhere in the 4.40-4.50 range.

After 33 starts and 200 innings at a 3.89 FIP, Lohse projected to right around 4.14 entering this season. His season was not incredible enough to prove to the systems that he had become a true talent +3.1 win pitcher but rather somewhere in the +2.5 to +2.8 wins vicinity. I’d like to toss this out there to anyone interested in throwing in their opinions, but at what point will you consider Lohse to legitimately be a very good pitcher if he continues to keep up his current performance level?

With the increased prominence of specialized bullpens, a much heavier reliance on pitch counts than several decades ago and the constant monitoring of health and fatigue, complete games have become somewhat of a rarity. Back in the early part of the 20th century, pitchers routinely finished what they started but nowadays it is considered a spectacular feat to complete five or more games in a season. Which makes yesterday’s action particularly interesting in that three different pitchers all tossed complete game gems.

Josh Johnson burst onto the scene in 2006 with a very solid rookie season. Injuries hindered his availability and progress in 2007 but he returned last season and put up great numbers in limited duty. Against the Mets and Johan Santana yesterday, Johnson showed the ability to dominate and why, when healthy, he can be as good as anyone else in the league. Throwing 113 pitches, 77 of which were strikes, Johnson went the distance, surrendering five hits and one run, walking one hitter and fanning seven. That brings his seasonal total to 15.2 innings, 12 hits, 1 earned run, 1 walk, 15 strikeouts.

Meanwhile, over in St. Louis, Kyle Lohse allowed a leadoff hit to Kazuo Matsui and then proceeded to retire the next 24 batters. Lohse, whose contract extension was largely ridiculed this offseason, finished with the tremendous line of 9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K. On the season, Lohse has surrendered just 8 hits in 16 innings and has issued only one free pass.

As dominant as Lohse looked, however, he didn’t best Aaron Harang’s line. On the heels of a first inning 2-run homer from Brandon Phillips, Harang had all the support he would need, giving up just three hits while walking none and fanning nine Buccos. Harang has now given up 10 hits and 1 earned run in 14 innings of work this season, walking three while recording 11 strikeouts.

All three of these pitchers worked efficiently with their pitches which is likely the only reason they were allowed to stay in the game so long. Especially in the case of Johnson given his aforementioned health issues. In terms of WPA, Johnson slightly edged out Harang, 0.571 to 0.569. At 0.460, Lohse clearly dominated his opponent but not necessarily to the same degree as Johnson and Harang, at least via win probability added. Then again, Lohse pitched in the least stressful of the three games, with a pLI of 0.79; Harang recorded a pLI of 0.94 with Johnson at 1.25.

Regardless, all three of these pitchers dominated and it was great to see them finish their games instead of being lifted for setup men and closers simply due to the specialized nature of the positions. Three complete games in the same day is very rare, especially over the last few decades, and I will have more on just how rare it is later tonight, calling my Retrosheet database into action.

This off-season, the free agent starting pitching market was not much to get excited about. Guys like Carlos Silva were given, well, ludicrous deals that mostly everyone criticized. One of the starting pitchers I expected to get a similar deal was Kyle Lohse. Things did not exactly work out that way, as Lohse’s asking price steadily declined. The Cardinals eventually signed Lohse to a 1-yr, 4 million dollar deal, that is making them look like geniuses right now.

In 30 starts, Lohse has arguably been their staff ace, producing a 3.76 ERA supported by a 3.85 FIP. His 5.24 K/9 is on the lower end of his career numbers, however a decrease in his walk rate from the last few years has resulted in a very respectable 2.41 K/BB ratio. He gets hit around a bit, but you could do much worse than a 1.29 WHIP. Couple that with an above average 73.6% strand rate, and more often than not, a successful pitcher will surface.

Is his performance surprising? Yes, but there were some telltale signs that he might actually be improving. Since 2004, his K/BB has essentially risen each year, while his HR/9 has decreased. Right now, his HR/9 of 0.79 is by far the lowest it has ever been. One potential reason for this change is his GB/FB, which, at 1.47, is higher than any rate he has posted. Additionally, he is using his fastball much more this year, cutting back on his changeups.

Lohse was pretty much the definition of a league average pitcher coming into the season, and while he may not have gotten the long-term, big-money deal he sought prior to this year, a WPA/LI of 1.70 that still has room to grow should get him something a bit more lucrative this off-season.