Archive for Los Angeles Dodgers

It’s a good day to be a fan of the Boston Red Sox.

The rumored trade between the Boston Red Sox and the Los Angeles Dodgers will save the east coast club more than $200 million but it will also infuses the organization with some young, cost-controlled, high-ceiling talent. Key names that are likely headed to Boston from the west coast include pitchers Rubby de la Rosa and Allen Webster, infielder Ivan DeJesus Jr., and outfielder Jerry Sands.

The Red Sox club is also said to be receiving veteran first baseman James Loney but he’s currently on a one-year contract and will be a free agent at the end of the season. It’s unlikely that he’d be re-signed given that he’s been at or below replacement level for the past five seasons (although a move away from Los Angeles should help his offensive numbers to a degree).

The key to the deal is de la Rosa. A hard-throwing native of the Dominican Republic, just 23 years old, he has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter. Only his lack of consistent command and control keep the No. 1 label from being adhered to de la Rosa. There are also some concerns over the durability of the hurler who underwent Tommy John surgery during the 2011 season. He doesn’t have the largest frame and puts a lot of strain on his body by reaching triple-digits with his fastball. His secondary pitches – a changeup and slider – both showed a lot of potential pre-surgery but he’s made just five official appearances since returning from the disable list.

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Earlier this year, when respected analyst Jay Jaffe named his Ken Keltner All Stars — aka the best eligible players not in the National Baseball Hall of Fame at each position — his right fielder was Reggie Smith. Some might argue that Dwight Evans or Bobby Bonds would be a better call, but Smith certainly has his bona fides. As a seven-time all-star, he accumulated 71.8 WAR between 1966 and 1982 and hit .287/.366/.489, with 314 home runs. A prolific switch hitter and an excellent defensive outfielder, Smith also had a reputation as a team leader. Now 67 years old, he runs Reggie Smith Baseball Centers in Encino, Calif.

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Smith on watching the game evolve: “When I played, the game was still coming out of the late ’50s, when ballplayers were really looked upon as heroes and role models. The game was played, I think, more for the love of it than for the money. We were making good salaries for the time, but nothing like today.

“I’ve seen the game change. The reasons that the players play the game has changed. I’ve actually seen players come into the game that did so because they were pushed into it by their parents. They were pushed because of the money and the opportunities that were there. I’ve seen players walk away from it for that very reason. They didn’t love the game and were playing it because someone else wanted them to.

“From a cultural standpoint, certainly you’ve seen change. It became more international, particularly as they began to cultivate and mine Latin America countries like Venezuela and the Dominican Republic. Now you’re starting to see them go into other countries like Japan, Korea and even Europe. Along with those changes, you see some of the cultural differences working their way into the game as to how it‘s approached. It has been a bit of shift, but part of that too is caused by a corporate approach to the game. It’s being run more as a business than as a hobby, as it was when I played. Read the rest of this entry »

A few weeks ago, the Dodgers became the most expensive sports franchise in the history of the world. Just today, they celebrate their 122nd anniversary in the National League. And it’s a storied history. On this date in 1890, the Brooklyn Bridegrooms made their debut in the National League by playing the Boston Beaneaters (the future Braves). Boston won the game 15-9, but the Brooklyns had the last laugh, winning the pennant by three games over Cap Anson’s Chicago Colts (later known as the Cubs) and 12 games ahead of the fifth-place Beaneaters. Their first National League season yielded their first National League pennant and the first of 19 20 overall for the franchise. That’s the second-highest total in National League history, behind tied with the Giants’ 20. (The Cardinals are in third place with 18.)

The Bridegrooms were playing in their second league and under their third name: the franchise had begun in 1884 as the Brooklyn Atlantics of the American Association. Then they played three years as the Grays, eleven as the Bridegrooms or just Grooms, and then thirteen as the “Superbas,” a nickname coined to describe the superteam that resulted from a mixture of the best Bridegrooms and the best players from Ned Hanlon’s legendary 1890’s Baltimore Orioles — they finished in first place their first two years under that name, 1899 and 1900. The name “Dodgers,” a contraction of “Trolley Dodgers,” was first used in 1911-1912, but the team then spent 18 years as the Robins before the present name stuck for good.
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It is no coincidence that the top six prospects in the Dodgers organization are pitchers, and that five of them were drafted out of high school. Logan White is in charge of the team’s amateur scouting department, and he might be the best in the business when it comes to analyzing and projecting young hurlers. He is certainly more willing than most to take a prep pitcher in the first round — seven in the last 10 years — with Clayton Kershaw being the shining star of his efforts.

White, whose official title is Assistant GM, Amateur and International Scouting, talked about the decision to draft Kershaw instead of Tim Lincecum, and his more-recent selections of Chris Reed, Zach Lee, Nate Eovaldi, and Allen Webster.

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White on 2010 first-round pick Zach Lee, biomechanical assessments, and signability: “Scouting and signing Zach was a fun time in my career, because we had the ability to go after a player above slot. The fact that he was a five-year payout guy and a dual-sport player certainly helped.

“We had what I call a video-scout draft, in January, that year. We do a lot of work on the biomechanics of the delivery and how the arm works. We match it with what our scouts have seen and come up with a list, as if the draft was that day. When we left that meeting, Zach was one of the top guys on it. Read the rest of this entry »

Converted shortstop Allen Webster served as the icing on the cake of my 2011 season as a September playoff appearance afforded me the opportunity to scout the young right-hander versus the Tennessee Smokies. And while Webster failed to make it out of the fourth inning, he showed enough for me to consider him a more complete pitching prospect than former teammate Nathan Eovaldi.

Armed with a usable four pitch mix, Webster displayed three big league pitches and a fourth with potential. And while command was an issue throughout the start, Webster may have simply been tired after a long minor league season. After a seven hit shutout in his final July outing, Webster sputtered the rest of the way ending with this particular appearance.

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Ron Fairly was a better player than you probably realize. In 21 major-league seasons he hit .266/.360/.408, with 215 home runs, while spending the prime of his career in an extreme pitcher’s park, in an extreme pitcher’s era. Overshadowed by big-name teammates, he quietly helped the Dodgers to World Series titles in 1959, 1963 and 1965.

Fairly is also a good storyteller  — especially when the stories pertain to the Dodger-Giants rivalry. When Juan Marichal attacked John Roseboro with a bat, Fairly was there. Ditto when Sandy Koufax was dominating hitters, and Don Drysdale was knocking them down. What did it feel like to get drilled in the back by Bob Gibson? What hitting advice did he get from Ted Williams? What did Duke Snider say about Roy Campanella? Well, now you’ll know.

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David Laurila: You had a productive a career that looks even better after accounting for era and park factors. Were you underrated?

Ron Fairly: “I think everybody feels that maybe they weren’t appreciated as much as they should have been for the contributions they made to ball clubs. I think it goes without saying. A lot of players feel that way.

“I think my numbers would certainly be better today. I played in an era — the 1960s — that might have been the most difficult in which to make your living, as a hitter, of any in the history of the game of baseball. I played in Dodger Stadium, which was a big ballpark where the ball didn’t carry very well. It doesn’t take many [lost] hits during the course of a season for your average to drop a little bit, and you weren’t going to have as many home runs or RBIs there.”

Laurila: Sandy Koufax put up his numbers in that same environment. While he was obviously a great pitcher, was he maybe a little overrated? Read the rest of this entry »

After yesterday’s seven-run, four-inning fiasco against the Reds, Chad Billingsley is sporting some ugly numbers. His current 4.65 ERA is the worst that number has been at this point in the season. Last year’s 4.34 ERA on June 15th was his second-worst, though, and something has been amiss in his repertoire since as early as 2009. As the doubles kept falling in on Wednesday, the twitter questions began pouring in: “What’s wrong with Chad Billingsley?”

The easy answer is nothing. His 8.09 K/9 is basically the same as his career number (8.18). So is his 3.84 BB/9 (3.86 career). His fastball velocity is still right around 91-92, and he’s still using the same pitching mix as ever. This could just be his ongoing below-average control working hand-in-hand with his career-worst BABIP (.336). It could.

Watching yesterday’s game, you can get that BABIP feeling. In the second inning, Brandon Phillips hit a dink that was a hair away from an out. Fred Lewis‘ double later that same inning was a hair fair. In the third inning, Edgar Renteria slapped a single into right field that wasn’t lined with authority. Jonny Gomes broke his bat on a flare single that prompted Vin Scully to exclaim that he’d “be happy with that.”

Then again, there were some moments that were all poor performance. The Scott Rolen double that plated the first run of the day was down-the-middle belt-high. A couple ball fours were way out of the strike zone. He walked in a run. He hit 94 on the gun a few times… on balls. It wasn’t a good performance waylaid by the bouncing ball. It was a mediocre performance that was augmented by some poor luck.

Scanning his pitching mix, it seems that Bills is using his cutter and curveball less and using his changeup more, and that doesn’t seem optimal. By pitch-type linear weights, his cutter and curveball are by far his best pitches. And yet his curveball usage is at his second-lowest level, and the pitch itself is at its slowest. Perhaps there’s something to this. Per Dave Allen, he only used the pitch eight times last night, in 88 pitches, which is far below his 18.4% career usage. Ryan Hanigan’s two-run single was on a curveball. The pitch broke well enough, but Hanigan seemed ready for it. There might be something off with his off-speed pitches: Billingsley only managed six swinging strikes on Wednesday, and all of them were on fastballs. Perhaps a Pitch F/x centered approach could find something wrong with his curve, even if the pitch is still a positive by linear weights. It doesn’t seem quite right.

Since 2009, Billingsley has the fifth-worst ERA-FIP difference among qualified starters. Ricky Nolasco and Jason Hammel sit one-two in that category. Somehow, this is a fitting group for Billingsley to be in. In recent years, the overall results have not matched up with the outcomes of his individual at-bats. As long as his curveball is okay, though, Billingsley should right ship again. Then again, with Clayton Kershaw in town, he’ll never reach top billing again in Los Angeles.

Following the 2007 season, the Los Angeles Dodgers seemingly had their outfield in order. Juan Pierre had signed a 5-yr/$55 mil deal prior to the season and was not about to sit on the bench. Flanking him would be prospects Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. Ned Colletti then proceeded to sign Andruw Jones to a 2-yr/$36.2 mil contract, creating a logjam in the outfield and relegating someone to the bench in the process. With all of the money invested in Jones and Pierre, the odd man out had to come from Ethier and Kemp.

Jones produced a .234 wOBA and, despite a +3.7 UZR rating in centerfield, proving his worth to be -0.4 wins. He missed most of the season, opening up a spot for all three of Pierre, Ethier, and Kemp.

Manny Ramirez soon joined the team, once again creating a surplus of outfielders. Fans screamed for Pierre to sit on the bench and Ethier to receive plenty of playing time. Though Joe Torre did not immediately react to these please, he soon found it too difficult of a task to keep Ethier out of the lineup. Pierre became disgruntled, but Kemp and Ethier needed to play every day, and you do not acquire Manny Ramirez to sit on the bench.

Jones may have missed a good portion of the 2008 season, but he is still technically under contract. Pierre also has three more years remaining. Kemp and Ethier are pretty much guaranteed starting jobs next season, but who takes over the remaining outfield spot?

Manny Ramirez does not appear to be heading for as big a payday as he expected, meaning the initial 2-yr/$45 mil offer that the Dodgers withdrew may make the most sense. Should he re-sign with the Dodgers, Colletti will have the outfield that helped propel the team into the playoffs returning n tact. He will also have around $30 mil in outfielders sitting on the bench/not living up to their paycheck.

The most recent reports have Jones heading to the Mets. Unless the Dodgers are willing to take on a bad contract like the one belonging to Luis Castillo (of whom they have no interest), Colletti will have to pay the large majority of Jones’ salary. If Ramirez rejoins the team and Jones is dealt, then Juan Pierre may not be happy, but you could do much worse in the fourth outfielder department. The big issue there is that he will earn plenty of money to make contributions that do not necessarily merit that fee.

An even newer report has Adam Dunn talking to the Dodgers. I cannot imagine Colletti would sign both Dunn and Ramirez, meaning he will go for either one or the other. Both are all-hit/no-field corner outfielders. Their 2009 projections call for +3.5 wins for Manny and around +2.8 wins for Dunn. Dunn is several years younger than Ramirez and will cost less, as well. From an owner’s perspective, however, ManRam puts butts in the seats, and Dunn does not.

Regardless, Pierre could be very useful as a pinch-runner who stays in the game as a defensive replacement, occasionally garnering starts. For most Dodgers fans, it seems the ideal solution is to cut ties with both Pierre and Jones while bringing back Ramirez to play left-field. The Jones part of that solution may come to fruition very soon, but I would fully expect to see Pierre in Dodger-blue as a fourth outfielder come Spring Training 2009. Either way, Colletti definitely loves him some outfielders, as four are currently under contract already and two more have been heavily rumored to be signed.

For the last month or so, we have primarily been focusing on dollar valuations and factors outside of offense that need to be added into any type of evaluation. This has enabled us to determine the fair market values for several players as well as figure the fee certain teams are paying for each added win. One player left out of such posts is Manny Ramirez. Per reader request, we will figure out exactly what Manny’s fair market value is, taking into account his offense, defense, and baserunning.

Offense
One of the best hitters of all time, Manny is still one of the best hitters today, even at 36 years old. In 2008, he hit .332/.430/.601, good for a .432 wOBA and +56 runs above average, his best offensive season since 2002. In fact, via WPA/LI, 2008 was the best offensive season of Manny’s entire career! Moving forward, Marcel projects Manny to produce a .389 wOBA in 2009, which would translate to +30 runs above average. Not as potent as last year by any stretch, but still more effective offensively than the likes of Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu, and the recently-signed Raul Ibanez.

Defense
Defensive excellence and Manny Ramirez, quite simply, do not belong in the same sentence. Unless, of course, the sentence is sarcastic and designed to point out how much of a liability he can be with the glove. UZR has him all over the place since 2002, ranging from +4 runs back then to -23 runs in 2005. From 2005-2008, his UZR numbers are -23, -20, -18, -5. His defense looked substantially better in 2008, but that does not make him solid in the field. A convervative UZR projection would peg Manny as a -10 runs fielder in 2009.

Baserunning/Adjustments
Via BP’s equivalent baserunning runs, Manny was worth +0.25 runs on the bases last year, and -2.05 runs the year before. Then, for whatever reason, the data does not seem to be there. Let’s call him -1 run on the bases, not terrible, not impressive.

As a corner outfielder, Manny should be docked -7.5 runs per 162 games. Projected to play 150 games next season, Manny’s prorated adjustment would be -6.9 runs. To determine value above replacement, and not average, the +20 runs per 700 PA also needs to be added. Prorating that, based on 584 projected plate appearances, adjusts this to +16.5 runs.

Overall
Adding the rounded results together: +30 + 17 – 10 – 7 – 1 = +29. Manny is a +2.9 win player in 2009. Assuming a going rate of $5 mil/win, Manny’s fair market value right now is $14.5 mil. A 3-yr deal, in a vacuum, would be worth closer to $42 mil. Suffice it to say, he is going to make much more than this. It is too difficult to quantify the merchandise and ticket sales that he will add to a team, but even with that, he does not seem to be worth the $22.5 mil/yr the Dodgers offered him earlier. Then again, accounting for the value of the actual marginal wins he is adding, he could very well be worth that fee.

Then again, perhaps the team feels that his -5 defense in 2008 is more a sign of things to come than the putrid numbers posted from 2005-07. If that is the case, then they are valuing Manny as a +34 run player, or +3.4 wins. That fair market value would be $17 mil/yr, and with the ticket sales and merchandise that would follow, it does seem more realistic that he could be worth about $22 mil/yr. For him to truly command a deal that impressive, he would have to be worth closer to four wins offensively than three, show that his defensive shortcomings are closer to a half-win docked rather than two full wins, and really keep a fanbase entertained.

Assuming -10 runs defensively, for Manny to truly command $22.5 mil/yr, he would need to be +45 runs on offense/baserunning combined. 45 runs offense + 17 over replacement – 10 defense – 7 position = +45. +45 runs = +4.5 wins. +4.5 wins * $5 mil/win = $22.5 mil.

It might have taken James McDonald a little time to settle on pitching but it looks like it was the right choice for the former two-way player.

Originally drafted as a pitcher at the age of 18, McDonald spent his first minor league season on the mound and posted a 3.33 ERA with 39 hits and 15 walks allowed in 48.2 innings. He also struck out 8.69 batters per nine innings. Regardless, he was converted to a hitter the next season due to ongoing arm issues.

McDonald spent the next two seasons as a light-hitting outfielder and batted .220 with an OPS below .600. He struck out 71 times in 208 at-bats with 21 walks. Sensing his career was at another crossroads, McDonald moved back to the mound and crossed his fingers that the arm woes were behind him.

And they were. McDonald has been on fire since rededicating himself to the art of pitching. In his first season back on the mound, McDonald allowed just 119 hits in 143 innings. He posted rates of 4.03 BB/9 and 9.25 K/9.

His 2007 season, which ended in Double-A, was even better as he shaved off about one-and-a-half walks per nine innings and posted a strikeout rate of more than 11 K/9. In 2008, McDonald returned to Double-A where he spent most of the season. He then pitched in 22.1 Triple-A innings before getting the call to the Majors. The pitcher features the best curveball in the Dodgers’ system, as well as a good change-up and an 88-93 mph fastball. McDonald has good command of all three pitches.

McDonald ended the 2008 regular season by throwing six scoreless innings with five hits, one walk and two strikeouts. He impressed the Dodgers enough in that brief time to receive the final NLDS playoff roster spot. McDonald has come a long way in a short period of time.