Archive for marcus stroman

Marcus Stroman is one of the very best pitchers in baseball. Since the beginning of last season, his 6.7 WAR is 13th in the league, right behind Jon Lester, Stephen Strasburg, and Jose Quintana — and just ahead of Jacob deGrom, Madison Bumgarner, and Zack Greinke. If you’re a believer in ERA, you probably didn’t think much of his 4.37 mark last year but are much more impressed by this season’s 2.99 figure. His FIP has remained steady, right around 3.70.

Despite a listed height of 5-foot-8, Stroman has recorded one of the league’s higher average fastball velocities. While there’s typically a relationship between velocity and strikeouts, that’s never been integral to Stroman’s success. His game is about inducing ground balls. It works well for him, but it does also leave room for some to regard him as something less than an ace.

As far as the ground-balling goes, Stroman’s elite. His 60.1% ground-ball rate topped all pitchers last season. He’s actually improved upon that figure this year, recording a 62.6% rate so far. The right-hander’s 61.2% ground-ball rate in 2016 and 2017 is the second-highest over a two-year period (min. 300 innings pitched) this decade behind Dallas Keuchel’s 62.6% mark in 2014 and 2015. Tim Hudson is the only other pitcher to exceed 60% grounders over a two-year period since 2010.

Inducing a lot of ground balls is a good thing, largely because ground balls can’t become homers. Stroman’s 0.87 HR/9 over the last two years is indicative of that; it places second among qualified starters only to Michael Fulmer’s 0.80 mark. Even after dropping the inning requirement to 250, Stroman sits behind only Fulmer, Clayton Kershaw and Kyle Hendricks. Stroman’s ability to limit homers helps make him one of the league’s better pitchers, even without an abundance of swings and misses.

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Projecting pitchers too far into the future can be pretty dicey. Elbow problems lead to Tommy John surgery and a 15-month recovery period. Shoulder problems can end careers. Fastballs drop in velocity and effectiveness fades. As a result, teams would prefer to be pretty careful when investing money in pitching. The problem for teams, however, is that pitching is expensive. An average starter costs nearly $100 million on the free-agent market, and good pitching costs double that amount. Good, cheap pitchers are young, and while they might remain good, they will not remain cheap. Teams then choose to invest in this risky position by extending young, cheap pitching with the hope of avoiding the free-agent market. Sometimes it works, like with Madison Bumgarner and Chris Sale. Other times, like with Cory Luebke, the team gets very little in return. This spring, there is a great crop of young pitchers teams should be looking to lock up long term, led by Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, and Sonny Gray.

A year ago at this time, I put together a list of potential extension candidates headed by Corey Kluber. Among the other players on the list were Drew Hutchison, Wily Peralta, Shelby Miller, Tom Koehler, and Dallas Keuchel, who I foolishly downplayed. Hutchison, Peralta, and Koehler had disappointing seasons while Miller was solid and Keuchel and Kluber were fantastic. That collection of players illustrates the risk both of locking up young talent and also failing to do so. Keuchel’s cost will soar during arbitration, making an extension expensive (and also unlikely), while extensions for Hutchison and Peralta would look like mistakes just one year later. Cleveland locked up Kluber, adding him to the list of pitchers extended over the past few springs. The numbers below were all current at the time of the relevant extension.

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With the 22nd pick in the 2012 Rule 4 draft the Jays selected Duke University right-handed pitcher Marcus Stroman. Listed at only 5-foot-9 Stroman would be one of the shortest starting pitchers in the majors in recent memory. Is he a starting pitcher, though? He was a starter in college and made 20 starts for Double-A New Hampshire in 2013. Yet, questions remain about whether his future lies in the rotation or the bullpen.

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The Toronto Blue Jays must decide within the next few weeks whether to make a final push for a playoff spot or focus on the future. While they are still reportedly evaluating potential additions for a second half run, the organization spent a large part of their minor league capital over the off-season, and will have to decide how much more they want to dip into that pool to make a run at a wild card spot.

The Jays began the 2012 season with one of the strongest minor league systems in Major League Baseball. After the trade deadline deals and winter flurries, though, the system fell to the middle of the pack. The depth helped to ensure there are still interesting players in the system but the majority of intriguing prospects are high-risk, high-reward guys that are in A-ball or Rookie ball. The big league club has already suffered from a lack of depth at the upper levels of the system by relying on players such Munenori Kawasaki (a solid backup but a stretch as a starting shortstop), Andy LaRoche, Chien-Ming Wang, Ramon Ortiz, Thad Weber, Mickey Storey, Justin Germano, Edgar Gonzalez, and the list goes on and on.

The Jays system has been depleted somewhat, but it isn’t barren. For interest’s sake, let’s look at some players still in the system that could be part of the team’s future, or could be used to make a short-term upgrade in pursuit of a 2013 playoff push.

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The Toronto Blue Jays organization boasts some impressive depth that stretches well beyond the 15 best prospects listed below. There were at least another 10-12 prospects legitimately in the running for the 10-15 spots on this list.

#1 Travis D’Arnaud (C)

Opening Day Age: 24
2012 Level: AAA
Acquired: Trade (2009)
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

The young catcher entered 2012 as the Jays’ top prospect and he did nothing to change the lofty status, although a knee injury ended his season prematurely in June. Had he not been injured d’Arnaud likely would have made his big league debut when MLB incumbent J.P. Arencibia suffered a fracture in his hand. d’Arnaud has the potential to be both an above-average hitter and fielder. One talent evaluator said the prospect was likely ready for the big leagues but stressed his value was behind plate and that it wasn’t overly likely that he would see time at other positions in an effort to get his bat into the lineup.

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