Archive for Mariners

The 2023 season is only a handful of days old, but already another Cy Young winner is on the shelf. After Justin Verlander was placed on the injured list last Friday, Robbie Ray joined him the following afternoon. The Mariners lefty was removed from his season debut against the Guardians in the middle of the fourth inning, having thrown 91 pitches and given up five walks and five runs. It wasn’t clear his exit was injury-related at the time, but Ray later revealed he’d been feeling pain since the second inning. He was ultimately diagnosed with a left flexor strain, which will keep him out for four to six weeks.

Even before Ray’s injury was diagnosed, the Mariners had cause for concern. For one thing, five walks in three-plus innings is certainly a worrisome sign. To make matters worse, two of those walks came in the first inning, before he began to feel sore. Ray has been notoriously wild in the past — he leads all active pitchers in five-walk games — but he had seemingly gotten his free passes under control the last two years:

In his second start of the 2021 season, Ray walked six batters in five innings of work. From that point onwards, he has posted a perfectly respectable 2.64 BB/9 (84 BB/9+). He needs to keep his walk rate in check to succeed going forward; hopefully his control will improve when his flexor strain heals. Read the rest of this entry »

The Rockies designated Jamie Moyer for assignment this week, likely spelling the end of his short run in Colorado. A year removed from undergoing Tommy John surgery, Moyer showed some positive signs over his 10 starts with the Rockies, but the team was discouraged with the overall results and opted to head in a different direction.

While the designation for assignment doesn’t preclude the team from hanging onto the player, it seems unlikely that the end result here involves the 49-year old Moyer pitching for a Rockies’ minor league affiliate.

Whether he is viewed as more of a novelty than an asset — and at this point in his career it’s hard to view him as a significant contributor — Moyer will probably receive some interest throughout the league. He might not get to start many more games, but some team will take a low-risk flier on him in some capacity if he decides to keep pitching.

While getting cut by a 21-29 team currently 10.5 games out of first place might signal it’s time to hang up the cleats, Moyer may still have something left to offer whichever team brings him aboard.

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The decline of Chone Figgins over the past two seasons is no secret to baseball fans. He produced 1.1 WAR last season after an impressive 6.9-win campaign a year earlier. He also averaged 3.6 wins above replacement in 2007 and 2008, establishing himself as as a patient hitter with excellent baserunning skills and strong defensive skills. His past 940 plate appearances have been so utterly unimpressive, though, that it is hard to remember he was once considered a threat at the plate. On top of that, his fielding marks have suffered substantially. He is nowhere near the guy who earned a lucrative deal last season.

In 55 games this season, he has a negative UZR, a below average baserunning mark and a putrid .211 wOBA. All told, Figgins has cost the Mariners 1.2 wins. His walk rate has progressively dropped from 13.9% to 10.5% last season, and now sits at 5.5%, which would be the lowest of his career if the season ended today. Since 2009, his wOBA has dropped from .358 to .302, all the way to the current .211 mark, which had Joe Pawlikowski wondering how much longer the Mariners would continue to write his name on the lineup card.

I recently wondered if Jose Bautista’s rise to superstardom was unprecedented in the annals of baseball history. So what if I repeated that research in the opposite direction? Namely, is the 33-year old Mariner’s decline unprecedented?

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The other night, while watching the Braves/Phillies game, I could not help but notice that, with Chipper Jones and Brian McCann getting a day off, Bobby Cox’s lineup looked terrible, registering a zero on the intimidation-ometer. Granted, McCann is still a regular even though Chipper’s days off are becoming the norm rather than the exception, but on September 22, this is the lineup Cox put out there, followed by their WPA/LI and OPS:

Josh Anderson, CF, -0.41, .649
Martin Prado, 3B, 1.10, .849
Kelly Johnson, 2B, 0.97, .799
Omar Infante, LF, -0.06, .762
Jeff Franceour, RF, -2.42, .653
Casey Kotchman, 1B, -0.17, .641
Clint Sammons, C, -0.56, .426
Brent Lillibridge, SS, -0.50, .515

Now, Kotchman’s numbers are with Atlanta only, Sammons and Lillibridge have yet to rack up 80 plate appearances, and these guys are not considered top prospects for nothing, but as a pitcher, wouldn’t you salivate over facing this batting order? Omar Infante batting cleanup? Seriously? Is that supposed to scare pitchers?

Interestingly enough, when Dave and I were discussing this, he mentioned that the Mariners recent lineups could give this one a run for its money. On the same day, September 22, against the Angels, the Mariners had this lineup:

Ichiro Suzuki, RF, 0.09, .753
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS, -2.16, .661
Raul Ibanez, LF, 1.37, .856
Jose Lopez, 1B, -0.27, .752
Jeremy Reed, CF, -0.70, .673
Timothy Hulett, DH, -0.18, .624
Matthew Tuiasosopo, 3B, -0.56, .395
Luis Valbuena, 2B, -0.29, .583
Rob Johnson, C, -0.41, .190

Again, Johjima is the regular catcher over Johnson, but it isn’t as if you would be inserting someone like McCann back into the lineup. Although, compared to Johnson’s .190 OPS, Johjima’s numbers likely would look like McCann’s. The Mariners lineup has Ichiro, Ibanez, and perhaps Jose Lopez as somewhat of a threat, while the rest do not look so good. The Braves have Johnson, a surprising Prado, a Kotchman just waiting to “bust out” and an about league average Infante. So, the question is, even though these might not be the exact everyday lineups of these teams, as an opposing pitcher, which of these September 22 lineups would you rather face, and why?

Over the winter, the Angels decided to acquire Jon Garland to bolster their rotation. In Chicago, Garland’s seasonal performances were something of a model of consistency; 200 IP with a 4.50 or so ERA. The Angels wanted that kind of stability, so they gave up their shortstop, Orlando Cabrera, to get Garland.

Unfortunately for them, they may not have noticed that Garland had taken a step back last year, seeing his stuff lose enough that he began to straddle the line between pitch-to-contact and batting-practice-thrower. As a guy with an average GB%, he just didn’t miss enough bats to sustain any real success, even though the results made him appear potentially useful.

Amazingly enough, Garland’s taken the art of not missing bats to a whole other level so far in 2008. After striking out one batter in six innings last night, Garland has now struck out a whopping four hitters. In 30 innings pitched. That’s an unreal 1.2 K/9 rate. 1.2 strikeouts per nine innings for a major league starting pitcher. Check out the graph:

Carlos Silva has basically set the standard for the minimum possible strikeout rate for a major league pitcher this decade. Garland is making Silva look like Nolan Ryan right now. He is compensating for the ridiculously low strikeout rate by getting more ground balls, but there’s just no precedence for anyone being able to pitch in the majors with a strikeout rate this low for very long. It’s not really working for Garland, either – his 5.04 ERA isn’t much better than his 5.67 FIP.

Garland can’t possibly keep putting the ball in play at this rate, but it looks pretty clear that Garland isn’t going to be the rotation stabilizer that the Angels thought they were getting.