Archive for Mark Buehrle

Are you familiar with FanGraphs? If so, hello there, friend! If not, welcome to FanGraphs, future friend! On FanGraphs you can find a wide variety of statistics and statistical leaderboards, and among the selection is plate-discipline data from PITCHf/x. As of a couple years ago, this data started including a Pace column. Pace is a simple statistic to understand: it’s the average number of seconds that pass between pitches, for both pitchers and hitters.

Pace is not a statistic that tells you anything at all about how good or bad a player is. There are relationships between Pace and deep counts or Pace and plate appearances with runners on, but Pace is more of a statistic intended to describe the game. We know that there are fast pitchers and slow pitchers, eager hitters and methodical hitters, and Pace gives us numbers. Pace has zero value when you’re talking about who stands the best chance of winning the next World Series. Pace has plenty of value when you’re talking about the gameplay itself, because it captures and describes a part of the viewing experience. It’s good to have numbers that do that, and the introduction of PITCHf/x-based Pace filled a tiny void.

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While I’m sure they are still celebrating in St. Louis, reality is going to set in quick, as the Cardinals have a busy off-season ahead of them. Not only do they have to replace their hall-of-fame manager, but they have to decide what to do with the only first baseman the city has known for the better part of a decade: Albert Pujols.

There are numerous factors that are going to affect whether Pujols returns — and many of them difficult to quantify. Letting Pujols walk would be a public-relations nightmare, and it would certainly hurt the Cardinals at the gate – but I’m not going to pretend that I know what that magic number would be. There’s also the question of Pujols’ declining ability as he ages, and whether he will live up to what will inevitably be a contract worth hundreds of millions of dollars. While I’m sure we’ll cover that topic in depth here at FanGraphs, that’s not what I want to cover today.

What I would like to suggest might sound blasphemous, but given the construction of their current roster — and downplaying the previously mentioned factors — it might not be the worst thing in the world for the Cardinals if Pujols walks away.

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Usually when I begin my posts with discussions centering on those with very solid controllable skillsets and the consistent durability to log 200+ frames each season, the topic of interets is Javier Vazquez. Not this time. No, instead of Vazquez, I want to give some props to another pitcher who might not fit this bill in the same exact manner but who has put together a pretty great career that gets overlooked far too often. That pitcher happens to be South Side southpaw Mark Buehrle, who just recently turned 30 years old, much younger than most realize.

Though 30 years of age does not necessarily constitute a spring chicken, Buehrle’s veteran savvy and resume dating back to the year 2000 make him seem older, somewhere in the 34-36 years old range. Since 2001, and including this season to weed out the retired, only four pitchers have thrown 1750+ innings: Vazquez, Buehrle, Barry Zito, and Livan Hernandez.

Hernandez is likely on his last legs, we all know the modus operandi of Vazquez, and Zito, despite a strong showing early on this season, has come nowhere near replicating his performance in Oakland. Buehrle has a 123 ERA+ in this span that leads the bunch. He is not exactly a strikeout machine, hovering around the league average in that department, but Buehrle walks next to nobody and breaks even on the home run front. All told, in exactly 300 major league outings, Buehrle has a 3.78 ERA and 4.14 FIP to his name.

These are not the kinds of numbers that beg for end of season award voting or spots on the all star team; however, the consistency with which these numbers were accrued speaks volumes for what he can bring to a team. Outside of the 2006 season–which was clearly an outlier in which his K/9 dropped to depths never before seen and his HR/9 rose almost exponentially–Buehrle has never posted an ERA greater than 4.21 (which actually came in his rookie season) or an FIP north of 4.26.

Here are his win values from 2002-08: +4.8, +4.4, +4.9, +6.3, +1.9, +3.8, +4.6. It is also fairly safe to assume that his numbers in 2001, which were very similar to those produced in 2002, would have resulted in right around +4.6 wins. Keeping in mind that Buehrle debuted as a rookie at the tender age of 21 years old, it is pretty incredible the kind of impact he made right out of the gate. At +0.9 wins already this season, he is right on pace for another season besting four wins.

Certain types of pitchers garner plenty of attention in the media: flashy ones like Carlos Zambrano, downright awesome ones like Johan Santana and Roy Halladay, the young ones reaching their potential like Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke, and the ones that come from nowhere like Cliff Lee. Buehrle does not fit into any of these, and tends to fall into the same category as Roy Oswalt and Aaron Harang, very durable pitchers with quality numbers that, for one reason or another, get overshadowed.

Buehrle is not even close to being done, especially when you consider that Derek Lowe has a similar skillset and just signed a contract that will expire close to when he turns 40. The wear and tear on Buehrle’s arm may come into play but he doesn’t throw exceptionally hard and grades decently with mechanics. It’s about time we start appreciating what guys like Buehrle bring to the table.

Following an Alex Rios lineout and an Aaron Hill strikeout, Mark Buehrle induced a grounder to third off the bat of Scott Rolen that should have ended the inning. A throwing error, ground-rule double, and single up the middle later, Buehrle found himself the victim of two unearned runs. He struck out Lyle Overbay to end the inning but the Blue Jays ultimately had all the run support they would need.

Despite posting a complete game line of 8 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, Buehrle suffered the loss; the committee of Shaun Marcum, Jeremy Accardo, Jesse Carlson, Shawn Camp, and Scott Downs collaborated on a two-hit shutout.

Buehrle threw exactly 100 pitches and 74 of them were strikes. Ironically, ten of those 26 balls came on the first pitch to batters. Here is his pitch breakdown:

• Fastball: 45, 87.8 mph
• Curve: 7, 72.4 mph
• Slider: 27, 83.5 mph
• Changeup: 21, 79.4 mph

Nobody swung and missed at his fastball though his slider proved difficult to make solid contact with; the White Sox fouled off nine of them and flat out missed six. Here are location charts showing where he threw his slider to righties and lefties:

While he tried to stay inside with the slider when facing lefties, he challenged righties in the zone more often with this offspeed pitch.

Facing a total of 29 batters, Buehrle threw a first pitch strike 16 times; ten of the first pitches were balls and another three were put in play. Unlike Matt Cain, who essentially throws a fastball to start every hitter, Buehrle started the White Sox offense with 18 fastballs and 11 breaking balls. With an 0-1 count Buehrle threw just two fastballs out of his 16 total pitches; with a 1-2 count he primarily threw changeups; on a 3-2 count he did not rely on his fastball, throwing two sliders and a changeup out of five pitches. Normally I would show this data in graphical or chart form but, when dealing with just one start, it would suggest patterns and tendencies that just cannot be determined with such a small sample.

Buehrle did not have an easily identifiable “out-pitch” last night as, with two strikes, he threw 13 fastballs, 2 curves, 7 sliders, and 8 changeups.

The aspect of pitch data that fascinates me most right now is sequencing: What does a pitcher throw after a certain pitch? Buehrle threw very few pitches to lefties but, against righties it becomes clear that he successfully mixed up his pitches.

When throwing his changeup to righties he definitely relied on additional offspeed pitches to accompany it rather than mixing speeds by throwing a fastball. In fact, there were six different plate appearances in which Buehrle threw three consecutive offspeed pitches. Never one to waste time on the mound, his quick work and mix of pitches and speeds successfully kept the Blue Jays off balance. Though his overall numbers suffer from an atrocious opening day start, Buehrle will have to pitch like this much more often for the White Sox to avoid the label of “pretender” and be in the race all year.