Archive for Matt Wieters

Before there was Steven Strasburg, unstoppable pitching cyborg or Bryce Harper, then-16-year-old Sports Illustrated cover boy, there was Matt Wieters. A switch-hitting, power-hitting force with enough athleticism in his 6-5, 230 pound frame to remain behind the dish, Wieters was selected out of Georgia Tech with the fifth pick in the 2007 amateur draft.

At the time, Baseball America said that Wieters could eventually “post averages near .280 with 30-homer potential in the big leagues,” and that despite his stature, he possessed “soft hands, good footwork and well-above-average arm strength, as evidenced by the 96 mph heat he has shown from the mound.” The $6 million man proceeded to terrorize minor league pitchers, batting a combined .343/.438/.576 at the High-A, Double-A and Triple-A levels. He also rated well defensively, according to Sean Smith’s Total Zone numbers.

Called up to the majors late last May, Wieters went on to post a .288/.340/.412 line in 385 plate appearances. That might not look off-the-charts good, but a .330 wOBA from a 23-year-old catcher, in the AL East, is extremely impressive. In four months of playing time, Wieters racked up 1.6 WAR. Heading into 2010, CHONE projected Wieters to rake to the tune of .289/.355/.460 (.356 wOBA), adding a couple of runs in defensive value while compiling 3.9 WAR. That’s the sort of production worthy of a Chuck Norris-style facts page (did you know Scott Boras hired Matt Wieters as his agent?)

Instead of building upon his successful rookie campaign, Wieters has stumbled somewhat over the first two months of the 2010 season. In 194 trips to the plate, he’s hitting .240/.314/.337, with a .290 wOBA. He’s holding his own defensively, rating as slightly above-average in controlling the running game after being a couple runs below average last season, but Wieters’ 0.5 WAR falls well short of his lofty preseason forecast.

Part of Wieters’ mild offensive showing can be explained by a .292 batting average on balls in play, down from last season’s .356 mark. His expected BABIP, based on his rate of home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls, is .324. Still, Wieters’ current plate approach isn’t conducive to putting up robust numbers with the lumber.

While Wieters’ walk rate has increased from 7.3 percent in ’09 to 9.3 percent this year, his plate discipline hasn’t been as sharp. At first glance, it looks like he has become more selective — Wieters swung at 47.2 percent of pitches in 2009, but just 43.1 percent in 2010. But, it’s the type of pitches that he’s going after that’s concerning. In ’09, Wieters chased 25.7 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. This year, he’s hacking at 29.7 percent of out-of-zone pitches. He took a cut at 70.2 percent of in-zone offerings in ’09, but just 59.2 percent in 2010.

The MLB averages for O-Swing and Z-Swing differ between the two years, but even as a percentage of the league average, Wieters is swinging at more would-be balls and keeping the bat on the shoulder against more strikes:

Chasing more junk pitches and watching more in-zone pitches go by isn’t a recipe for offensive success. Wieters’ first pitch strike percentage, 53 last season, has climbed to 63.9 percent in 2010 (58 percent MLB average). He hit a ground ball 41.9 percent in ’09, but he’s chopping the ball into the grass 49.3 percent in 2010. That’s obviously not going to help in the power department, and Wieters’ ISO has dipped from .124 to .097.

All of this sounds pessimistic, but it’s important to remember that Wieters just turned 24 at the end of May. He thrashed minor league pitching, earning glowing scouting reports. He was a league-average hitter as a rookie playing the most physically taxing position on the field, in the game’s most competitive environment. Wieters’ rest-of-season ZiPS projection calls for a .275/.342/.413 triple-slash, with a .336 wOBA. Many teams would be thrilled to get that sort of production out of a competent defensive catcher. While he must hone his strike zone control, there’s still plenty of time for Wieters to reach those star-level expectations.

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Matt Wieters, C
Wieters did not burst onto the MLB landscape quite as forcefully as some might have hoped, but he had a solid debut for someone with just two years of pro experience. Despite beginning the year in the minors, the catcher still posted a WAR of 1.9 and was worth roughly $8.4 million to the club. Wieters also made improvements as the year progressed. He showed that he’s currently a very good fastball hitter, but he needs to improve against breaking balls (especially sliders). For a rookie catcher, a line of .288/.340/.412 is nothing to sneeze at… and he’s only going to get better.

The Riser: Brandon Waring, 3B
Obtained from Cincinnati in the Ramon Hernandez trade, Waring continued to improve in ’09 and he has hit 20+ homers in all three of his pro seasons. This past year, playing mostly in high-A ball before a seven-game trial in double-A, Waring hit .273/.354/.520 in 473 at-bats. The biggest knock against him entering ’09 was his +30.0% strikeout rates, but he trimmed that to 25.6%, a more reasonable number for a slugger. His walk rate was just shy of 10.0%. Waring isn’t anything special at the hot corner, so he spent 76 games at first base in ’09 where he was OK. He could be the O’s first baseman of the future if Brandon Snyder cannot hack it.

The Tumbler: Billy Rowell, OF
Rowell has officially lost the debate over who was the best high school hitter of the ’06 draft… Rowell or Travis Snider. The Orioles minor leaguer is not even considered a future big-league hitter by some. After a dismal ’08 offensive season, ’09 got even worse (even though he was repeating high-A) with a triple-slash line of .225/.284/.336 in 423 at-bats. Rowell has about zero defensive value, as well. His once heralded power has diminished with his ISO dropping each season from .178 to .153 to .120 to .111.

The ’10 Sleeper: Caleb Joseph, C
When it rains, it pours. The organization already has a top-notch, young starting catcher in Wieters, but Joseph is zooming up the depth chart. He won’t unseat Wieters at the MLB level, but Joseph could be valuable trade bait if the organization does not want to waste his talent by sitting him on the bench for five or six games a week. Playing in high-A in ’09, the 23-year-old Joseph hit .284/.337/.450 with a .166 ISO in 380 at-bats.

Bonus: Brandon Erbe, RHP
I won’t get too in-depth with Erbe here because he’s going to appear on the ’09 Top 10 list for the Orioles. However, he was highlighted in the ’08 series as the sleeper for ’09 and he delivered. With five years of pro experience under his belt, Erbe is still just 21 years of age (He turns 22 in December).

We’re happy to introduce Jack Moore as our newest addition to the FanGraphs team. We think you’ll enjoy his contributions here.

October is upon us, and most of our attention is upon the eight playoff teams vying for the Commissioner’s Trophy. However, there are 22 other teams, and there are some notable stories and players from these teams as well.

One of the main stories entering the season was the impending arrival of catcher and savior of the world Matt Wieters. The Orioles delayed Wieters service clock and then called him up this May after amassing a minor league career OPS of over 1.000. Wieters is a switch hitter with impressive power and by all scouting accounts is a plus defensive catcher. Plus, he can steal home from first base.

PECOTA projected Wieters to be an 8 win player this year, which some considered to be a dubious claim, even by WARP3’s questionable calculation of replacment level. CHONE was slightly pessimistic, pegging Wieters as a 3 win player. Wieters did not meet either of those projections. Wieters only accrued 385 PAs this season, and in that span he put up nearly 2 wins. Among AL rookies, this number is overshadowed by the likes of Brett Anderson and Elvis Andrus. Still, this is a number that any organization could appreciate out of a rookie. But this is Matt Wieters, who once hit home runs in AA and AAA… at the same time.

Wieters’ wOBA dropped to .330 this year, a substantial drop from his AAA line of .391 and his low-minors numbrs which ranged from .440 and .490. Both his IsoP and his walk numbers plummeted upon reaching the show. A human .124 ISO and 7.3% walk rate led to a nearly exactly average season at the plate for Wieters. As a catcher, an average hitting season ranks as the 12th best season out of a catcher this year, certainly acceptable out of a rookie, despite the fact that this rookie snacks on batting donuts.

The Orioles have no reason to be alarmed. Wieters still projects to be a fantastic player going forward. Although his 2009 numbers may be sobering, they are only 385 plate appearances. We still have roughly 700 incredible minor league plate appearances to judge him on, and they don’t magically disappear now that he’s in the big leagues. Any player that puts up .440+ wOBAs in the minors and then hits like an average major leaguer in his first season at the age of 23, all while playing catcher, is worthy of accolades and is one of the biggest assets a major league organization could hope for.

Even if he can’t cure world hunger by flexing his left bicep.

The Favorites:
1. Brett Anderson, LHP, Oakland
Anderson holds the narrow edge over Romero is K/9 with 7.25, good for 18th in the league for pitchers with more than 90 innings pitched. Anderson has the 12th lowest FIP in the AL at 3.91, six spots ahead of Bergesen. The southpaw also has the second lowest line-drive rate in the AL, four spots head of Porcello.

2. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas
Andrus and Brett Gardner are tied for 12th in the league in steals with 20. Among AL shortstops, Andrus leads in UZR and range factor.

3. Brad Bergesen, RHP, Baltimore
Bergesen is 12th in the league in BB/9 (90 IP+), five spots ahead of Anderson. He’s also 12th in the league in HR/9 at 0.80, five spots ahead of Niemann.

4. Gordon Beckham, 3B, Chicago
Beckham leads rookies in batting average (200 PA minimum) but is just 35th in the league. He also has the highest BABIP for rookies at .331, 26th in the league. Defensively, UZR doesn’t like Beckham, but he has shown good range.

5. Andrew Bailey, RHP, Oakland
Bailey is seventh in the AL in saves with 17 (40 IP+). He’s also eighth amongst all AL relievers in K/9 with a rate of 10.13. The right-hander is helped by a low .249 BABIP.

Watch Out For:
Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore
He had a slow start to his MLB career, but this promising catcher is really playing well now… It remains to be seen, though, if he can catch up to all of the rookies above.

Nolan Reimold, LF, Baltimore
Reimold is tops in BB% at 11.5%, but that is good for just 34th in the league. No rookie is amongst the top 35 hitters in OPS, ISO or wOBA. Defensively, he’s one of the worst left fielders in the AL.

Ricky Romero, LHP, Toronto
Romero is often the second or third best rookie pitcher in any one of the categories, including K/9 and GB%.

Rick Porcello, RHP, Detroit
Porcello has the highest ground-ball rate in the American League at 56%, two spots ahead of Romero, five spots ahead of Bergesen and seven spots ahead of Anderson.

Jeff Niemann, RHP, Tampa Bay
Niemann has the 14th lowest batting-average-allowed in the league, four spots ahead of Romero.

On Tuesday, Orioles GM Andy MacPhail was quoted as saying: “It’s time. He’s ready.” The he of course is Matt Wieters, the best prospect in the game, one of the most hyped in quite some time, and a top-tier major league catcher before ever swinging a bat at the big league level. MacPhail acknowledged that Wieters had proven himself enough in the minors and would be called up by the end of the week. Well, that day is today, when the Orioles stud backstop is finally unleashed on the league.

I couldn’t help but laugh when reading MacPhail’s quote, picturing a sinister film score in the background with the GM dramatically raising his head while speaking for effect. Then the scene would cut to a laboratory where Wieters roared, snapped all of the cords connecting him to monitoring devices, and proceeded to punch his way through the walls with nothing but raw strength. That may be going too far, but with all of the expectations and hype surrounding this guy, he sounds like a genetically engineered baseball machine, perhaps what happens if you splice together DNA from Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer, and add in a dash of Jack Morris-clutchiness.

Back on April 30, Marc wrote here about Wieters’ performance, noting that his .267/.382/.378 line in 45 AB in Triple A came off as underwhelming compared to his past performance. After all, in A-ball last season Wieters hit .345/.448/.576 for a .445 wOBA. He moved up to Double A and mashed his way to a .365/.460/.625 line and a .472 wOBA.

Wieters has certainly turned things around since the end of April, as his current line now reads: .305/.387/.504 with a .391 wOBA. The power numbers are a tad depressed and the .383 BABIP from a season ago has regressed to .358, but the backstop is more than ready to feast on major league pitching. Expectations will loom large here and so I’m urging all of those anxious to see what Wieters can do to avoid buying too much stock in his first few games. I don’t care if he goes 11-11 with four walks and nine home runs, or if he ends up striking out seven times while going 0-10. Let things play out a bit before issuing any sort of judgment.

Regardless, the time has come, and now we finally get to see what this kid might be capable of.

2008 Draft Slot: Fourth overall
Top Pick: Brian Matusz, LHP, University of San Diego
Best Pick: Brian Matusz
Keep an Eye On: Bobby Bundy, RHP, Oklahoma high school (8th round)
Notes: A knee injury slowed Bobby Bundy during his senior year of high school and scared off clubs. He was given an above-slot deal to forgo a college career at the University of Arkansas. Bundy will spend another season in short-season ball in 2009. Two more prep players – OF Xavier Avery and 2B L.J. Hoes – have the chance to make noise in the system. Avery has the more impressive set of tools, but Hoes is a more advanced hitter.

2007 Draft Slot: Fifth overall
Top Pick: Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech
Best Pick: Matt Wieters
Worst Pick: None
Notes: It’s hard to criticize the Orioles’ selections when the club lacked second and third round draft picks. Fourth-round pick Tim Bascom has had a modest start to his career and posted a 5.24 FIP in High-A last season. In a do-over, Pittsburgh (4th overall) and Chicago (third) – possibly even Kansas City (second) – would probably grab Matt Wieters. Despite lacking the second and third round picks, Baltimore secured a second-round talent with the selection of Jake Arrieta in the fifth round.

2006 Draft Slot: Ninth overall
Top Pick: Billy Rowell, 3B, New Jersey high school
Best Pick: Zach Britton, LHP, Texas high school (3rd round)
Worst Pick: Billy Rowell
Notes: There were questions about Billy Rowell’s maturity and makeup entering the draft and he has done little to quiet those concerns in pro ball. He’s showing a little life with a .282 average in High-A ball this season but his raw power has still not translated to in-game power (one homer in 71 at-bats). Supplemental first round pick Pedro Beato has also been a disappointment. Zach Britton has pitched well so far in his career and he’s holding his own in High-A ball this season, although he’s struggling a bit with his control (12 walks in 19.2 innings).

2009 Draft Slot: 5th overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): Best available talent
MLB Club Need: Pitching, Pitching, and more Pitching, Third base, Shortstop
Organizational Need: Outfielders, Shortstop, Third base, First base, Left-handed pitching
Organizational Strength: Catcher, Second base, Right-handed pitching
Notes: The club will no doubt look to take the best available player, as seen by its decision to select Matt Wieters despite his huge price tag. However, the club is probably hoping for a good bat to be available with the pick since the future pitching rotation is looking pretty good with Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz and Brandon Erbe (and even David Hernandez) on the way. But you can never, ever have too much pitching so the club should be a winner either way with the fifth pick.

There are two talented catchers in the upper levels of the minor leagues and both of those players were selected in the first round of the 2007 draft. Matt Wieters was recently named the Minor League Player of the Year by Baseball America, while J.P. Arencibia is not far behind in the discussion of the best catching prospects in baseball.

Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles
Ht: 6-4, Wt: 230
Born: May 1986
Drafted: 2007 fifth overall, Georgia Tech

Wieters does it all very well: He hits, he plays defence and he leads by example. The hulking catcher did not play pro ball in his draft year due to signing late but he began 2008 in High-A ball. He hit .345/.448/.576 with 15 homers in 229 at-bats. Wieters was then promoted to Double-A where he performed even better. He hit .365/.460/.625 with 12 homers in 208 at-bats. The switch-hitter batted .393 against southpaws and .354 versus right-handers. Overall on the season, Wieters walked 82 times with 76 strikeouts. Defensively, he nailed 40 percent of base runners attempting to steal. He also made nine errors with three passed balls.

J.P. Arencibia | Toronto Blue Jays
Ht: 6-1, Wt: 210
Born: January 1986
Drafted: 2007 21st overall, University of Tennessee

One of the biggest differences between the two players is Arencibia’s lack of patience, especially compared to Wieters’. The Jays prospect walked just 18 times on the season with 101 strikeouts in 510 combined at-bats. Even so, Arencibia hit .315/.344/.560 with 13 homers in 248 High-A at-bats. He was then promoted to Double-A where he hit .282/.302/.496 with 14 homers in 262 at-bats. Overall, he drove in 105 runs. Arencibia has more raw power potential than Wieters, but the Orioles catcher is the superior hitter at this point. Arencibia is also still a little rough around the edges when it comes to catching (10 errors, 15 passed balls), although he did throw out 34 percent of base stealers.

The Jays are sending Arencibia to the Arizona Fall League specifically to work on his patience at the plate and they do not care how well he hits as long as he works the count to his advantage. Wieters has also been sent to the Arizona Fall League, which is a little puzzling considering his already-solid skills and the long season that he endured during his first pro season. A regular full season of minor league baseball is already much longer than a college season, especially when a player is squatted down behind home plate. But that said, a little extra hard work never hurt anybody.