Archive for Max Scherzer

The Graduate: Max Scherzer | Born: July 1984 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Max Scherzer found much success at the Major League level in 2008, which was made all the more impressive by the fact he held his own regardless of the role assigned to him. He started seven games and also made nine relief appearances. In total, he allowed 48 hits in 56 innings of work. Scherzer posted rates of 3.38 BB/9 and 10.61 K/9, along with a 3.33 FIP. One warning sign with his season, though, is a high line-drive rate at 28.1%. Scherzer certainly has the stuff to have a dominating career, with a fastball that averages 94.2 mph, as well as a slider and change-up.

The Riser: Cesar Valdez | Born: March 1985 | Right-Handed Pitcher

A recent addition to the 40-man roster, Cesar Valdez split the year between High-A ball and Double-A. In total, he used his fringe fastball and excellent secondary pitches (curve and change) to strike out 140 batters in 160.1 innings of work. Valdez’ plus control, though, struggled a bit upon the promotion, as it increased from 1.50 to 3.22 BB/9. His K/BB ratio also dropped from 5.00 to 2.61. The 2009 season will be a big year for Valdez as it will help to determine whether his stuff will play against more advanced hitters.

The Tumbler: Barry Enright | Born: March 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

A 2007 second-round draft pick out of college, Barry Enright made his pro debut that same year out of the bullpen and did not allow an earned run over three minor league levels (15 innings). Moved back into the starting rotation in 2008, which is the role he held in college, Enright struggled in High-A ball and allowed 185 hits in 164.1 innings. He posted rates of 1.92 BB/9 and 7.83 K/9. His fastball is in the upper 80s and peaks at 92 mph. His slider is his second best offering and the change-up is lacking. Enright is probably best suited for the bullpen.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Bryan Shaw | Born: November 1987 | Right-Handed Pitcher

The Diamondbacks’ second round selection in 2008, Bryan Shaw had an up-and-down debut. He started his pro career in Rookie ball but struggled by allowing 24 hits in 17.1 innings. Shaw was then promoted to A-ball, where he improved by allowing 18 hits in 22.1 innings. The reliever also walked six and struck out 16. Shaw should begin 2009 in High-A ball, where he could dominate with a mid-90s fastball and wipe-out slider.

The ’09 Sleeper: Evan Frey | Born: June 1986 | Outfielder

The Diamondbacks organization has had a lot of success with developing outfielders and Evan Frey is no different. The speedy outfielder stole 37 bases between two A-ball levels. At High-A ball, Frey hit .297/.395/.402 with an ISO of .105. A left-handed batter, Frey understands the value of getting on base to utilize his speed. He posted rates of 13.9 BB% and 20.1 K%. At the very least, he should be a valuable fourth outfielder at the Major League level.

This concludes the two-month, 30-team review of the 2008 minor league season. Thanks for reading!

Last week, Dave previewed the important Dodgers-Diamondbacks series by discussing the three great pitching matchups on tap. Dan Haren vs. Derek Lowe, Brandon Webb vs. Chad Billingsley, and Randy Johnson vs. Clayton Kershaw. Well, the Big Unit was scratched from yesterday’s start, paving the way for rookie Max Scherzer to step in. Scherzer, the 24-yr old flamethrowing prospect, had success earlier in the season, however, the return of Doug Davis relegated him to the bullpen, before he was eventually sent back to AAA when the Snakes needed a more durable reliever.

Johnson used to be a flamethrower, as well, arguably staking claim as the best left-handed power pitcher of all time, but it seems the torch of heat may be passing to Scherzer. Now, I’m not saying Max is a hall of famer or anything along those lines, but he definitely deserves a spot in this Diamondbacks rotation. Personal affinities aside—Max and I speak routinely through e-mail as he is very into sabermetrics—his mere 13 appearances this year, 4 of which were starts, have produced a WPA/LI of 0.44. Mark Buehrle’s is 0.50, as is John Lannan’s. Joe Blanton, the supposed answer to the Phillies rotation troubles, has been worth just 0.37 wins above an average pitcher.

In 39 innings this season, he has surrendered just 32 hits, only two of which are home runs. His controllable skills only get better, as his 45 strikeouts and 15 walks translate to a 10.38 K/9 and a 3.00 K/BB ratio. Of balls put in play, an exorbitant 31.2% have been line drives, which means his .316 BABIP is much lower perhaps than what should be expected, but this will not persist and can be expected to even out at some point.

Looking at his Pitch F/X data, he throws his 94.4 mph fastball 72.3% of the time, with 7.01 horizontal inches of movement and 8.76 vertical inches. His slider is thrown 15% of the time, with the changeup accounting for most of the leftover. His changeup looks particularly effective, too, as it comes in almost a full 10 mph slower, at 84.8 mph. Additionally, he has essentially sustained the horizontal movement from his fastball, but lessened the vertical movement, meaning it will not “rise” as much as his heater. Whether in the rotation or temporarily working out of the bullpen, Scherzer needs to be in the big leagues. If he has the capability to miss bats like he does at the major league level, being in AAA serves no purpose.

To read my interview with Max, in which he explains his relationship with sabermetrics and analysis, and how it pertains to him as a pitcher, click here.