Archive for Max Scherzer

The National League Cy Young race is an incredibly competitive one, and as Dave Cameron (who has a vote this year) broke down a few weeks ago, much of the differences between the candidates deals with run prevention in a team sense (RA/9-WAR and ERA) versus run prevention in a component sense (FIP, WAR). As a result, there has been considerable discussion on the concept of weak contact, and last week I looked at the role of the Cubs defense in the Chicago pitchers’ low BABIPs. Taking a small step further, let’s use the Statcast to look at weak and strong contact to determine if the Cy Young candidates in the National League have been helping out their defenses.

To whittle down the candidates, I found the pitchers who are among the National League’s top 10 both by WAR and RA/9-WAR — and then added Jose Fernandez, who just missed the second list. This is a list of those pitchers and their respective ERA, FIP and WAR marks.

As you can see, the NL pitchers ranked first and second in ERA only rank sixth and seventh in FIP, which has led to discussions, particularly with regard to Kyle Hendricks, about how to evaluate such discrepancies when discussing a pitcher’s Cy Young candidacy. To examine the type of contact a pitcher is generating, ee can start with a simple look at average exit velocity. Here are the pitchers’ average exit-velocity numbers and MLB ranks, per Baseball Savant.

While the evidence isn’t overwhelming, there is some reason to think that a pitcher has some, if not a lot, of influence over exit velocity, with the bulk of the influence coming from the batter. Those arguing for Kyle Hendricks for the Cy Young would likely say there is a considerable effect and point to the very good exit-velocity numbers and very low BABIP he’s conceded as evidence. That said, Clayton Kershaw has an even better average exit velocity and his BABIP isn’t quite as low as Hendricks’. Which pitcher gets more credit?

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For a good while this season, it looked like Clayton Kershaw was going to win the Cy Young Award this season for the fourth time in six seasons. It’s possible he still might: with a sub-2.00 ERA and FIP — and a WAR that still leads major-league pitchers — he has a strong case. But given his relative lack of inning (just 121 currently), he faces a steep uphill climb against those who will have spent far more time on the mound this season.

Jose Fernandez and Noah Syndergaard are likely to be mentioned for the most prestigious year-end pitching award. Kyle Hendricks is making a run at it, too. That said, no pitcher has been on the mound more this season than Max Scherzer. Only Fernandez is within 30 of Max Scherzer’s 238 strikeouts, and after a slow start this season, Scherzer is making a run at joining Roger Clemens, Roy Halladay, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and Gaylord Perry in winning the Cy Young both in the American and National League.

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Recording 20 strikeouts is an amazing feat — and a rare one, too: this past Wednesday, Max Scherzer joined Roger Clemens, Kerry Wood, and Randy Johnson as the only players ever to accomplish it in nine innings. What they’ve done is exceptional and, naturally, separates them from other pitchers. And while similar, each performance occurred in the context of different variables which made it distinct: era, opponent, ballpark, etc. No one is required to decide which pitcher faced the most challenging set of circumstances among those five games (Clemens did it twice). Yet, I’ve elected to make an attempt, anyway.

When first trying to understand which game posed the most difficultly, we immediately turn to the opponent. Roger Clemens, for example, achieved both of his 20-strikeout games with the designated hitter in play. Striking out 20 players of major-league caliber — regardless of how low they are on that particular scale — is still incredibly difficult. It’s more difficult to record 20 strikeouts against good hitters. The Detroit Tigers lineup Scherzer faced, meanwhile, is a top-heavy one. But solid overall, even if it didn’t feature a DH.

The table below depicts the lineup the Tigers deployed against Scherzer as well as each respective hitter’s rest-of-season projected numbers for wRC+ and strikeout percentage. (Jordan Zimmermann‘s career numbers were used, and his strikeout percentage and wRC+ were combined proportionally with pinch-hitter Jarrod Saltalamacchia’s. Weighted average accounts for the top of the order getting more plate appearances than the bottom)

Tigers Lineup Against Max Scherzer

Player	wRC+
Ian Kinsler	101
J.D. Martinez	124
Miguel Cabrera	145
Victor Martinez	119
Justin Upton	118
James McCann	71
Anthony Gose	80
Jose Iglesias	84
Jordan Zimmermann	33
AVERAGE	97
Weighted AVG	100

*Zimmerman’s wRC+ averaged proportionally with pinch-hitter Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

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Whether or not you think Jose Tabata intentionally moved his elbow into the path of Max Scherzer’s two-out, ninth-inning curveball this past Saturday, the final result stood as an example of a very rare phenomenon: a perfect game broken up on the would-be final out of the game. While still securing the no-hitter put Scherzer firmly into the record books, the history of the almost-perfecto is incredibly interesting in its own right, as is the unparalleled dominance the Nationals right-hander has shown in his past two starts.

Scherzer now has a distinct place in the discussion of historic pitching performances. We should make sure to put the emphasis on the plural of the word performance, because Scherzer just put together arguably the best back-to-back outings by a starting pitcher since at least 1914. His final combined line for his starts on June 14th and 20th:

18.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 26 K

Scherzer faced 57 batters over his two starts: he struck out just under 46% of them. To put that in context, he had a better strikeout rate over the entirety of two consecutive complete games than Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, or Dellin Betances have in their relief appearances this season. By the numbers, he was more or less the equivalent of facing the best closer in baseball on a particularly dominant day for two entire games.

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Lance Lynn first received a rotation spot in 2012 when St. Louis’s then-ace Chris Carpenter went down in Spring Training. Lynn inherited the rotation spot vacated by Carpenter, but did not inherit his role as staff ace, into which Adam Wainwright stepped after missing 2011 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The Cardinals have once again lost their ace, with Adam Wainwright out for the season because of an Achilles injury. This time, Lance Lynn, secure in his spot in the rotation and current de facto ace, appears poised to drop the de facto qualifier and be one of the top ten pitchers in all of baseball.

As Jonah Keri wrote yesterday, not much was expected of Lynn when he was drafted, but over the last year he has been one of the better pitchers in the National League. The Cardinals tweaked Lynn’s delivery in the minors, instructing him to move his hips more to gain greater leverage towards the plate. The moves helped Lynn throw in the mid-90s out of the bullpen in 2011, and kept his fourseam fastball in the 92-93 mph range as a starter. Lynn has been solid and durable, but not spectacular, as a starter over the past three seasons slotting behind Adam Wainwright. In the early part of this season, he has taken a step forward, mirroring the career of Max Scherzer.

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This offseason has been so full of thrills and spills it’s been easy to forget that two of the FanGraphs Crowd’s four most-valued free agents went unsigned well into 2015, with Max Scherzer waiting to become a Washington National until January 19. We don’t yet know why Scherzer waited so long to sign, or why the almost-as-valuable James Shields has waited even longer. Perhaps they have been sitting with fingers crossed in hopes that they would receive a substantial offer from a team other than the Houston Astros. Maybe they just want to take their time making such a big life decision.

Regardless of their reasons for remaining on the free agent market for so long, we’re just about reaching that point in the offseason when Pitchers & Catchers Reporting is visible on the horizon’s crest. One of the perks of being a phenomenal major league player on the level of Scherzer and Shields is that you are afforded comparatively ironclad job security, especially compared to their journeymen peers, many of whom have to annually shuttle their families to new locales across the nation.

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When the American League Cy Young Award winner is announced on Wednesday night, Detroit’s Max Scherzer is almost certainly going to defeat Yu Darvish of the Rangers and Seattle’s Hisashi Iwakuma, potentially by a lot. Look at those wins! Twenty one of them, against only three losses! There’s absolutely no question that some percentage of the voters are going to simply see “21-3 for a playoff team” and cast their ballot without a second thought. It’s sad, even infuriating, but it’s true. Even though pitcher wins don’t matter, even though we’ve made progress from things like peak-level Johan Santana losing out to Bartolo Colon in 2005 because the Twins weren’t very good that year, in this context: yeah, they still do.

That fact of life has caused a nearly unlimited amount of aggravation among many of us, but it can also obscure this very important truth: just because Scherzer had the best record and we hate that many voters will focus on that, it doesn’t automatically mean that he’s not actually the best pitcher in the American League. He might be, or he might not be — there’s plenty of candidates — but nor is his likely victory going to be some sort of travesty. Read the rest of this entry »

FanGraphs Audio surprises even itself sometimes.

Episode Six
In which the panel considers pitchers young and old-ish.

Headlines
Second Half Jackson
Scherzer to the Max
The First Word in Johan is Yo (Almost)
Roy Halladay Is an Asian Freak
… and other hilarious misunderstandings!

Featuring
Matt Klaassen
Jack Moore

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jumpity-jump.

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This column is the final part of a six-part part series looking at the sophomore players around the Major Leagues. We finish up with a look at the National League West, which introduced some very talented pitchers to the league in 2008, especially in Los Angeles. The Arizona Diamondbacks went with quality over quantity with just one rookie making a significant contribution last season.

In the past few days, we have looked at the: AL Central, AL West, AL East, the NL Central and the NL East.

Outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and left-handed pitcher Greg Smith both spent their rookie seasons in Oakland, but the (now) sophomores came over to Colorado in the off-season trade for veteran outfielder Matt Holliday. Gonzalez has spent a good portion of the season in triple-A in 2009, although he is currently on the Rockies MLB roster. In the minors, the outfielder hit .339/.418/.630 with 10 homers in 192 at-bats. Called up to the Rockies, he is hitting .180/.226/.280 in 14 games. He’s been striking out a lot (more than 30%, while walking less than 6% of the time). Last season in 302 at-bats with Oakland, Gonzalez hit .242/.273/.361 with four homers and a strikeout rate of 20.2%.

Smith has yet to pitch with the Rockies this season while rehabbing from shoulder woes. He made 32 starts for Oakland as a rookie in 2008 but it remains to be seen how effective he can be in Colorado with a modest fastball and fly-ball tendencies.

Ian Stewart is a former first round selection (10th overall in ’03) of the Rockies, but he has yet to truly display the same potential that he hinted at as a prep player. Stewart, 24, has struggled two hit for average this season with a line of .223/.306/.489 with 13 homers in 184 at-bats. Last season he hit .259/.349/.455 with 10 homers in 266 at-bats. His strikeout rate has actually dropped from 35.3 to 28.3 K% from 2008. The biggest differences have been his BABIP, which has gone from .364 to .235, and his line-drive rate, which has gone from 25.0 to 12.8%.

Starters Franklin Morales and Greg Reynolds have made brief appearances on the Rockies’ pitching staff over the past few years. Morales appeared in eight games in 2007, five in 2008, and two in 2009 – with varying levels of success. Reynolds, 23, made 13 starts for Colorado in 2008 but posted an 8.13 ERA and allowed 83 hits in 62 innings. This season he’s been unable to stay healthy and has made just one appearance in triple-A.

Blake DeWitt was a surprise contributor to the Dodgers club in 2008, but he has not had the same impact in 2009. Last year, the infielder hit .264/.344/.383 with nine homers in 368 at-bats. This year, DeWitt has spent the majority of the year in triple-A where he’s produced modest results. In 19 big league at-bats, though, he has a triple-slash line of .158/.238/.158 with zero extra base hits.

Although not a typical rookie, right-hander Hiroki Kuroda, now 34, posted a 3.73 ERA with 181 hits in 183.1 innings of work for the Dodgers in 2008. This season has been a different story as the Japanese hurler missed most of April and all of May due to injury. When healthy, though, he has a 3.44 ERA with 28 hits allowed in 36.2 innings.

Southpaw Clayton Kershaw was one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball entering the 2008 season, but he struggled with consistency while making 22 appearances, including 21 starts. In 109 innings, he allowed 107 hits and an ERA of 4.26 (4.08 FIP). He posted a walk rate of 4.35 and a strikeout rate of 8.36 K/9. In 2009, the 21-year-old hurler has an ERA of 3.76 (3.79 FIP) with 57 hits allowed in 76.1 innings. His strikeout rate has been similar to 2008, but the walk rate has risen by more than one free pass per nine innings.

Cory Wade, now 26, came out of nowhere last season to post a 2.27 ERA (3.78 FIP) in 71.1 innings as a reliever. The right-hander allowed just 51 hits, while posting rates of 1.89 BB/9 and 6.43 K/9. Wade has not been as sharp in 2009 with 23 hits allowed in 25 innings and an ERA of 4.68 (3.62). His walk rate has risen to 3.60 BB/9 and his strikeout rate has dropped to 5.76.

Chase Headley’s 2008 MLB debut was highly anticipated and the club found room for him at the Major League level by moving him from the hot corner to left field (to accommodate incumbent third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff). Headley, 25, had an OK season and hit .269/.337/.420 with nine homers in 331 at-bats. His walk rate was OK, but not great, at 8.3 BB%, while his strikeout rate was worrisome at 31.4 K%. This season, the rates have been similar, although the strikeout rate is down four percent. Headley has a line of .233/.309/.365 with six homers, while spending time back at third base for the injured Kouzmanoff.

It definitely helps if you have a younger brother that is your employer’s best position player. Edgar Gonzalez finally received his MLB break in 2008 when he made his way to the San Diego organization so he could play with his brother Adrian. A 30-year-old rookie, Edgar hit .274/.329/.385 with seven homers in 325 at-bats as a second baseman and back-up infielder. This season, he has not hit well with a line of .189/.250/.368 and three homers in 95 at-bats.

Catcher Nick Hundley has pretty much been as advertised in his brief Major League career. In 2008, he hit for a low average while producing a line of .237/.278/.359 with five homers in 198 at-bats. His home ballpark mutes his power potential. In 2009, Hundley is showing a little more patience at the plate while hitting .236/.340/.379 with three homers in 140 at-bats. He has a pretty good arm behind the plate but the rest of his defense is average.

Josh Banks was a minor-league acquisition from the Jays organization. The right-hander has a modest fastball and struggles with his command. Last year, he allowed 94 hits in 85.1 innings of work and posted an ERA of 4.75 (5.18 FIP). He had a walk rate of 3.38 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of just 4.54. In triple-A in 2009, Banks had a 2.47 ERA while making 14 appearances, including eight starts. Called up to the Majors, he has made one appearance out of the bullpen and allowed just two hits and no runs in three innings of work.

Pablo Sandoval has done nothing but hit since coming to the Majors in 2008. Last year, he produced a line of .345/.357/.490 with three homers in 145 at-bats. The 22-year-old former catcher has continued to hit for average in 2009 with a line of .336/.385/.544 with eight homers and 22 doubles in 241 at-bats. His walk rate has also improved by four percent, although the strikeout rate has also risen by six percent. Sandoval will also have to watch his conditioning, especially if he hopes to remain at the hot corner, or move back behind the dish.

John Bowker was the Giants’ first baseman almost by default in 2008 and he hit .255/.300/.408 with 10 homers in 326 at-bats. The 25-year-old hitter also posted rates of 7.0 BB% and 22.7 K%. Unhappy with his production, the club has kept Bowker in triple-A all season despite a line of .346/.445/.595 and 13 homers in 237 at-bats.

The club utilized a number of rookie players in the infield in 2008, including Eugenio Velez (who appeared in 98 games and also played the outfield), and Emmanuel Burriss (94 games). Only Burriss has seen significant playing time at the MLB level in 2009 with a line of .238/.292/.267 in 202 at-bats. Velez was seeing time as a utility player and had a line of .194/.216/.222, which earned him a ticket to triple-A.

The Diamondbacks organization knew it had a pretty good pitching prospect in Max Scherzer, but the right-hander has surpassed expectations – both in 2008 and 2009. Last year, he allowed 48 hits in 56 innings and posted rates of 3.38 BB/9 and 10.61 K/9. This year, Scherzer has allowed 77 hits in 79.0 innings, while posting rates of 3.65 BB/9 and 9.23 K/9.

2008 Draft Slot: 26th overall
Top Pick: Daniel Schlereth, LHP, University of Arizona
Best Pick: Daniel Schlereth
Keep an Eye On: Kevin Eichhorn, RHP, California high school (3rd round)
Notes: The club picked up some left-handed pitching depth when it selected collegians Daniel Schlereth and Wade Miley with its first two picks. Schlereth made his MLB debut last week after flying through the minors. Miley is pitching OK in the minors, although he’s moving much more slowly as he’s only in low-A ball. Prep right-hander Kevin Eichhorn was nabbed a couple rounds later and bought out of a trip to college. Eichhorn, whose father Mark pitched for 11 years in the Majors, is currently in extended spring training but he’ll be taking to the field in a couple of weeks when rookie ball begins. RHP Trevor Harden (14th round) was a great find – a Diamondback in the rough. He’s pitched at both low-A and high-A in 2009.

2007 Draft Slot: Ninth overall
Top Pick: Jarrod Parker, RHP, Indiana high school
Best Pick: Jarrod Parker
Worst Pick: Ed Easley, C, Mississippi State (supplemental 1st round)
Notes: The club had two supplemental first round picks in this draft and it once again focused on pitching, with mixed results. RHP Jarrod Parker is looking like a potential No. 2 starter. RHP Wes Roemer (50th overall) is getting back on track after hitting a wall in 2008. RHP Barry Enright (73rd) is in double-A but he’s been too hittable. At 23, RHP Sean Morgan (133rd) is still in low-A because of injuries but he’s having some success as a swing man. RHP Bryan Augenstein (7th round) was a nice find and he’s already contributed at the MLB level. Ed Easley entered pro ball with the reputation of being a solid offensive catcher whose glove was just good enough to remain behind the dish. Unfortunately, he hit .250 in his pro debut and has seen his batting average drop each season.

2006 Draft Slot: 11th overall
Top Pick: Max Scherzer, RHP, University of Missouri
Best Pick: Max Scherzer
Worst Pick: Brooks Brown, RHP, University of Georgia (Supplemental first round)
Notes: With all the talent in the world, Max Scherzer was expected to be one of the first picks in the draft but he slid because A) He was hurt sporadically throughout his junior year, B) He had a violent delivery, and C) He was represented by Scott Boras. Arizona, though, certainly does not regret the pick one bit. Prospects LHP Brett Anderson (2nd round) and RHP Dallas Buck (3rd round) were used in separate trades to obtain veteran talent. RHP Brooks Brown was also used in a trade, as he was sent to Detroit to secure the rights to 2008 Rule 5 draft pick James Skelton. Brown, a sinker/slider pitcher, has had trouble striking out batters in pro ball (3.15 K/9 in 2009) but he’s always posted good ERAs, for what it’s worth.

2009 Draft Slot: 16th and 17th overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): Pitching, college more often than prep
MLB Club Need: Starting pitching, First base
Organizational Need: First base, Second base, Third base, Left-handed pitching
Organizational Strength: Shortstop
Notes: Now this is where things always get fun…. as long as the club does not go cheap. The Diamondbacks organization has back-to-back picks, with the 17th pick of the draft coming from the Dodgers after the division rival signed veteran second baseman Orlando Hudson. The club then has three supplemental first round picks for the losses of Hudson, RHP Juan Cruz (Kansas City), and RHP Brandon Lyon (Detroit). The club also has two second-round picks – its own and the Royals’ selection as a result of the club signing Cruz. So Arizona has seven of the first 60 picks.