Jacob deGrom, Sonny Gray Top Candidates for Extension
Projecting pitchers too far into the future can be pretty dicey. Elbow problems lead to Tommy John surgery and a 15-month recovery period. Shoulder problems can end careers. Fastballs drop in velocity and effectiveness fades. As a result, teams would prefer to be pretty careful when investing money in pitching. The problem for teams, however, is that pitching is expensive. An average starter costs nearly $100 million on the free-agent market, and good pitching costs double that amount. Good, cheap pitchers are young, and while they might remain good, they will not remain cheap. Teams then choose to invest in this risky position by extending young, cheap pitching with the hope of avoiding the free-agent market. Sometimes it works, like with Madison Bumgarner and Chris Sale. Other times, like with Cory Luebke, the team gets very little in return. This spring, there is a great crop of young pitchers teams should be looking to lock up long term, led by Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, and Sonny Gray.
A year ago at this time, I put together a list of potential extension candidates headed by Corey Kluber. Among the other players on the list were Drew Hutchison, Wily Peralta, Shelby Miller, Tom Koehler, and Dallas Keuchel, who I foolishly downplayed. Hutchison, Peralta, and Koehler had disappointing seasons while Miller was solid and Keuchel and Kluber were fantastic. That collection of players illustrates the risk both of locking up young talent and also failing to do so. Keuchel’s cost will soar during arbitration, making an extension expensive (and also unlikely), while extensions for Hutchison and Peralta would look like mistakes just one year later. Cleveland locked up Kluber, adding him to the list of pitchers extended over the past few springs. The numbers below were all current at the time of the relevant extension.
| IP | ERA | FIP | WAR | Service Time | |
| Corey Kluber | 450.1 | 3.34 | 2.95 | 10.6 | 2.074 |
| Chris Sale | 286.1 | 2.89 | 3.19 | 6.5 | 2.061 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 325.2 | 3.10 | 3.06 | 6.2 | 1.127 |
| Derek Holland | 393.2 | 4.73 | 4.36 | 5.3 | 2.120 |
| Jose Quintana | 336.1 | 3.61 | 3.99 | 5.3 | 1.133 |
| Jon Niese | 370.2 | 4.39 | 3.77 | 4.6 | 2.107 |
| Julio Teheran | 211.2 | 3.44 | 3.85 | 2.5 | 1.062 |
| Cory Luebke | 157.1 | 3.38 | 3.09 | 2.3 | 1.033 |
| Chris Archer | 158.0 | 3.47 | 3.94 | 1.7 | 0.156 |