The line jumped out at me when I read it in the Minnesota Twins press notes earlier this week; “Brian Dozier has hit 30 home runs in the last 365 days.” A look at the stat sheet showed something else of interest: The 27-year-old second baseman is on pace to draw 100 walks.

Thirteen months ago, Dozier had seven home runs and two dozen walks in a little over 400 big-league plate appearances. His batting average for the season was barely over the Mendoza Line. Then came a skull session with hitting coach Tom Brunansky, accompanied by some serious film work.

“On May 20 last year, in Detroit, Bruno and I broke down everything,” Dozier told me on Tuesday. “It was kind of sink-or-swim for me. I was on the verge of getting sent down, so I knew I had to make an adjustment. We got me more grounded – more in my legs – which made my pitch recognition better and my power go up.

“It was about getting my foot down. My foot was up in the air when I started my swing. I’d see a ball coming into the zone and start to swing, and if the ball started breaking away I’d already be committed. Now I’m able to see the ball longer.”

Not being familiar with his old mechanics, I asked Dozier to clarify. Did he get rid of a leg kick he’d been using as a timing mechanism?

“It wasn’t really a leg kick,” responded Dozier. “It’s basically that I was coming down on my toe instead of flat-footed. My foot could be down with my toe, but it still wasn’t down. My hip would start to fly open as I started my swing and I couldn’t stop it. Now I’m more grounded. We call that counting clicks. The more clicks you have once your foot is down, the longer you have to see the ball. Six to eight clicks is a really good thing and at the beginning of last year I only had three or four.”

Once again I needed some clarification. Could he better define “counting clicks”?

“It’s about being on time,” explained Dozier. “You can have a leg kick like Jose Bautista or you could be as quiet as Joe Mauer. It’s once your foot is down — click, click, click – to the point of contact. If I’m starting my swing and it’s one, two, three, bam!, that’s three clicks. That’s not good. What I’m referring to is the in-between from the time you get your foot down to the time you make contact. More clicks means your foot is down early and you can see the ball more.”

I asked Dozier how he views the relationship between power and walks. Is he drawing more free passes because he’s hitting home runs, or is he going deep because he’s seeing more pitches?

“I think it’s all about sticking with my plan,” responded Dozier after a long pause. “This is my third year and I’m learning which pitches, so to speak, I can hit out. I have a better idea of what I need to lay off of. When I get a pitch in my zone is when I try to crank it.”

The home run numbers stand out – especially for a middle infielder – as does the walk rate. Batting average is another story. Dozier’s slash line is .243/.355/.449. Is that a concern?

“Batting average is probably the most overrated stat in baseball,” said Dozier. “Your job is to get on base, so you want to keep your OBP up. You obviously want a good OPS as well. Scoring runs and driving them in are the most important things.”

——

Dozier isn’t the only one counting clicks and putting up numbers. Detroit Tigers outfielder JD Martinez is hitting .312/.342/.596. He’s also red hot. The erstwhile Astro is 14 for his last 31 and has left the yard four times in his last six games.

Martinez’s emergence isn’t dissimilar to Dozier’s. Their backstories differ, but each has turned a corner thanks to mechanical tweaking. Not satisfied with the arc of his young career, the 26-year-old Martinez decided to rework his swing over the offseason.

“A guy I was working with showed me all these commonalities of great hitters,” Martinez told me last month. “I saw that there were good things about my swing, but also some bad things. My swing was too in-and-out-of-the-zone. When we slowed it down on film, I could see my bat was in the zone for one or two clicks. Good hitters are in the zone for six to eight clicks.

“It was a matter of bat path. I’ve changed my swing so it’s more of a slight uppercut to be level with the angle of the pitch. My swing used to be more east to west. The bat was in the zone from here to here, then it was out. Now I’m in the zone longer, which allows my margin of error to be greater.”

Martinez was a .332 hitter in the minor leagues and showed plenty of potential in parts of three seasons in Houston. But while he displayed occasional power, he was all too susceptible to slumps. Opposing pitchers were doing a good job of exploiting his cold zones. Changes were in order.

“At this level, if you have a glitch in your swing, pitchers are going to find it,” said Martinez. “The big leagues are the big leagues. Here, it’s not about talent. It’s not about whether you can hit a 95-mph fastball or whether you can hit a slider. It’s a chess game and about making adjustments. If a pitcher sees you can’t hit a fastball in, he’s going to keep pitching you in. He’s going to find that hole and exploit it. Basically, I needed to change my swing to adjust to how I was being pitched.”

Martinez brought his new mechanics to the Venezuelan Winter League and found he was able to handle the pitches he used to struggle with. He continued to fine-tune his swing when he returned stateside, and reported to spring training anxious to finally establish himself in the Astros lineup. He was never given the chance. Houston released him in mid-March and Detroit picked him up a few days later.

“There’s not much I can say about that other than they wanted to go in another direction,” said Martinez. “I wish I’d have been given more time to show what I can do, but that’s what they decided. I’m not a negative person, so I’m not going to say anything bad about the Astros. I’m just happy the Tigers picked me up and are giving me an opportunity. It’s been hard to keep my timing down, not playing every day, but I’ve been able to prove to myself that the changes I made will work.”

——

Kevin Plawecki is proving himself in Double-A. The 23-year-old New York Mets catching prospect is hitting .329/.373/.493 in Binghamton. Just as importantly, he’s displaying improved defensive skills.

Drafted 35th overall in 2012 out of Purdue, Plawecki projects to hit for average at the big-league level. The former Big 10 Player of the Year uses the entire field and has excellent bat-to-ball skills. But he does need to improve his plate discipline. In 1,013 professional plate appearances he’s fanned 104 times and has drawn 81 walks. He’s not exactly backing down from his approach.

“If you’re not striking out, you’re obviously swinging the bat,” said Plawecki. “You have to swing to make contact. I understand I don’t have a lot of walks, but I’m a hitter, not a walker. I’ll take walks, but I don’t think anybody gets in the box looking for one. If the pitch is in the zone, I see no reason not to swing at it. Ultimately you’re trying to get a hit every time you’re up to bat.”

Binghamton manager Pedro Lopez acknowledges the former Boilermaker is a free-swinger, but also sees a lot to like. One thing he expects to improve is Plawecki’s power production, which has been surprisingly sparse for a player with a linebacker’s build. Plawecki has six home runs this year and 21 since entering pro ball.

“He uses the whole field and is good at making adjustments,” said Lopez. “I think the home runs are going to come in time. We all know power is the last thing to develop, and Kevin has good size. He has a good understanding of how to control the barrel, so it’s mostly a matter of learning the strike zone better. Once he starts doing a better job of laying off the marginal pitches and focusing on his hot zone, the power numbers will go up.”

He’s already upping his caught-stealing percentage, which is a respectable 33 percent this season. A good receiver, Plawecki made great strides with his throwing in spring training. Working with big league bench coach Bob Geren, and minor league catching coordinator Bobby Natal, he turned a question mark into a positive.

“It was about cleaning up my arm action,” explained Plawecki. “I was a little too long and kind of getting caught on my front side a little bit. In a sense, my arm was having to catch up to my body. We eliminated that and got everything working together.”

How close to big-league ready is Plawecki?

“He’s close, but I don’t want to put a time frame on him,” said Lopez. “That wouldn’t be fair. We have to remember this kid was in the South Atlantic League at the beginning of last year. I will say that he’s making good progress.”

——

Matt Wisler didn’t look like the top pitching prospect in the San Diego system in his first four Triple-A starts. The 21-year-old righthander was promoted to El Paso in May and proceeded to allow 21 runs in 13-and-a-third innings. It was a rude awakening for a hurler who’d breezed through the California League and dominated Double-A.

This year’s Baseball America Prospect Handbook lauds Wisler’s mental toughness and poise, and both were evident in the way he bounced back. In five appearances since, the Bryan, Ohio native has allowed 10 earned runs in 31-and-a-third innings.

“It was definitely tough,” Wisler said of his four-game debacle. “I was kind of playing head games with myself, over-thinking everything and wondering what I was doing wrong. I was in my head too much.

“I had one big inning every game and that killed me. You have to be able to stop the bleeding once you get guys on base, and I was allowing four or five runs before I knew it. I was letting the game speed up on me rather than settling down and making my pitches.”

Wisler had a 2.03 ERA last year in the hitter-friendly California League. What made his transition to the Pacific Coast League so tumultuous?

“The Cal League is a hitter’s league, but the PCL is a hitter’s league with better hitters,” explained Wisler. “Here, your mistakes get punished a lot more, and I was leaving balls up to get punished. I was giving up doubles and triples with guys on. I gave up a lot of home runs as well.

“I couldn’t command my fastball down in the zone. It was up, flat, and easy to hit. I was maybe overthrowing a little bit, especially in the first couple of games. When things started to unravel, I’d try to do too much instead of taking a step back and just making a good pitch. I was trying to blow it by hitters, and that’s not going to happen at this level.”

El Paso pitching coach Mike Cather knows Wisler well, having previously served as the Padres minor-league pitching coordinator. He agrees the youngster learned a lot in the lambastings.

“He found out making pitches is a lot more important than trying to out-stuff somebody,” said Cather. “He took some damage, but his learning curve is extremely steep. He figured things out pretty quickly.”

According to Cather, Wisler’s changeup usage is improving and his slider is average-plus with more depth than run. His two-seam fastball has good late action and his four-seam fastball has “another three or four mph under the hood for when he wants to go for a punch out.” Cather likes Wisler’s increased abilty to add and subtract, varying his fastball velocity between 89 and 95.

Wisler’s two- and four-seam usage is determined partly by feel, partly by handedness.

“It kind of depends on the day and the hitters,” explained Wisler. “If there are a ton of lefties I’m probably going to throw 55-60 percent two-seams. If there are a lot of righties I’m probably going to be 70 percent four-seams. How many arm-side pitches I’m throwing depends a lot on the lineup.”

Will Wisler get an opportunity to face a big league lineup this summer as a fresh-faced 21-year-old?

“I think there’s a significant chance he could pitch in San Diego this year,” said Cather. “It could be a spot start, or a two-start stint, just to get his feet wet. It could also be out of the bullpen. There are different ways to break a guy into a major league environment.”

——

Karsten Whitson signed with the Red Sox yesterday. An 11th-round pick this year out of the University of Florida, the 22-year-old righthander reportedly received a $100,000 bonus. In 2010 he turned down a reported $2.1 million after being taken ninth-overall by the Padres out of high school.

If Whitson regrets his earlier decision, he’s not letting on. When I spoke to him last week, he professed to being proud of what he’s accomplished over the past four years. Any looking back is done with positives in mind.

“My time at Florida was great,” said Whitson. “I went to the College World Series, won two SEC championships, and graduated [with a degree in psychology]. It was a very tough decision, but after doing some self reflection I though it was the right choice. I’d always been a huge Gators fan and it was a dream of mine to play there. I was able to do that, and now I’m following my dream to play professional baseball.”

I asked Whitson if bonus parameters were discussed prior to the 2010 draft.

“No,” replied Whitson. “ I got picked and they just kind of threw a number at me – what they valued me at – and talking with my family it seemed like pursuing an education and a degree was more important at that time in my life.”

Whitson went 8-1, 2.40 in his freshman season at Florida. Then came the injury that threw his future earnings further in doubt.

“My sophomore year, I felt some discomfort in my forearm,” explained Whitson. “I had a little tendonitis, and being the young player I was, I came back from that a little too fast, which led to some shoulder issues. There’s always been a lot of torque in my delivery, and pitching around the forearm soreness led to the internal impingement in my shoulder. There was some build-up on the joint — a callus building up on the nerve – so I decided to go ahead and get it cleaned up by Dr. Andrews.”

The 6-foot-4 righty threw in the mid-90s before the injury. That dropped to the high 80s before he went under the knife and missed the 2013 season. I asked Whitson where his velocity is now.

“My last college start was against LSU in the SEC tournament and my velo was great,” said Whitson. “I was 93 to 97 and my slider was up to 88. It’s all starting to come together for me, not just my shoulder, but also my feel. I missed some time over the past few years, but I’m heading in the right direction. I’m with a great organization that’s going to develop me the right way.”

As for the money he passed up four years ago, that will matter even less if he reaches the big leagues and goes on to earn a multi-year contract. His response when I suggested as much?

“Absolutely,” said Whitson. “Absolutely.”

Each weekday during the minor-league season, FanGraphs is providing a status update on multiple rookie-eligible players. Note that Age denotes the relevant prospect’s baseball age (i.e. as of July 1st of the current year); Top-15, the prospect’s place on Marc Hulet’s preseason organizational list; and Top-100, that same prospect’s rank on Hulet’s overall top-100 list.

Jake Johansen, RHP, Washington Nationals (Profile)
Level: Low-A  Age: 23   Top-15: N/A   Top-100: N/A
Line: 26 IP, 28 H, 20 R, 23/16 K/BB, 5.88 ERA, 3.80 FIP

Summary
Johansen has premium size and arm strength, with enough supplemental skills to make him very interesting.

Read the rest of this entry »

Tim Bogar was hired over the off-season to be Ron Washington’s bench coach in Texas. It looks like a good fit. Their relationship stretches back to Bogar’s minor-league playing days.

Bogar’s background is also a fit for the front office. The 47-year-old is well-versed in sabermetric concepts, having worked under Joe Maddon in Tampa and Terry Francona in Boston. He also spent a season with Bobby Valentine, giving him an up-close look at what can happen when managerial decisions are based more on whimsy than analytic judgment.

General manager Jon Daniels says Bogar wasn’t hired as a conduit to the team’s analytics department. That doesn’t mean he won’t influences the more-traditional Washington. Defensive-positioning is an early indicator.

“We’ve been shifting a little more this year,” Daniels told me earlier this week. “That’s something Tim Bogar is implementing. He, along with Wash, sets our infield. They communicate with Mike Maddux, so we can defend according to the game plan against hitters. I don’t know exactly how shifts are measured — how extreme a guy has to be out of “standard position” to qualify — but Wash and Dave Anderson did shift some in the past. Tim is a little more aggressive with it.”

According to Baseball Info Solutions, the Rangers shifted 355 times last season — 10th most in MLB — and are slightly ahead of that pace two weeks into the current campaign. What happens henceforth will depend on matchups and, as Daniels alluded to, interpretation.

“We’re shifting, although probably not as dramatically as some would want,” said Bogar. “There are a lot of people out there who would like everybody to be shifting in a certain way. I’d say we move guys enough to be noticed, but sometimes not enough for it to be considered a shift.”

Would there be more-pronounced shifting if he, not Ron Washington, was running the ball club?

“We’re just trying to put our players in the best possible position to succeed,” Bogar replied diplomatically. “Wash and I talk all the time about what we want to do with certain players and certain situations. Ultimately, it comes down to what he wants, but we discuss a lot of things.”

It was a different story when he served as Bobby Valentine‘s bench coach.

“Bobby didn’t ever ask my opinion,” said Bogar. “He actually didn’t talk to me at all. He wasn’t like Wash.”

“The way Wash runs his staff is very collaborative,” agreed Daniels. “He wants guys to speak their mind. Wash was actually Tim’s manager in A ball, so they weren’t starting from scratch. They already had a rapport. Wash has encouraged him to be an active part of the in-game decision-making process.”

Does Daniels hope Bogar’s saber-friendly approach will rub off on Washington?

“He wasn’t hired for that,” said Daniels. “I’m sensitive to the idea Tim was put in to implement front office strategy. That’s not the case at all. The bottom line is that Tim is a good baseball man. He’s a good coach and teacher. He’s smart, a good communicator, detail-oriented, and knows how to use information. He has the ability to merge both [traditional and sabermetic] ideas.”

Daniels does as well. As a matter of fact, the Rangers GM believes melding the two is essential.

“There’s a give and take,“ explained Daniels. “Wash and I talk about things and some we agree on and some we don’t. But at the end of the day, we supply as much information as we can and trust the staff to use it to the best of their abilities. I’m not looking to agree with every move we make. It’s more about the bigger picture of getting our players in the best position to succeed. There are different ways to accomplish the same goals.”

——

All pitchers have the same goal of throwing quality strikes. How they go about it isn‘t always the same. Red Sox left-handers Jon Lester and Andrew Miller deliver pitches from different sides of the rubber.

“I started out on the third base side, then I went to the first base side,” said Lester. “Now I’m not all the way on the first base side, but rather a little bit toward the middle. I moved about a year and a half ago when I was having trouble with my hip. This kind of alleviated some things. I felt it was easier for me to get the ball to the glove side.”

“I stand on the third base side,” said Miller. “I think that opens up the strike zone a little more. I was on the first base side until probably 2011. I think that adds to deception and creates better angles, but it narrows the strike zone for you. I sacrificed some angle, but my slider is a pretty big breaking pitch and I carry enough angle as it is.”

Physical starting points aren’t the only things that will differ. So is the focus pitchers put on endpoints.

“Each guy is going to have his own gig,” said Lester. “Take this guy pitching [on the clubhouse TV] for the Orioles. [Zach Britton] is a big power sinker guy, so he’s probably not throwing for the glove. A guy with a lot of movement is probably aiming for areas, but I’m a four-seam guy. I have to throw it to the glove. That’s where my focus is.”

Chris Hernandez, a left-handed pitcher for the Triple-A Pawtucket Red Sox, doesn’t throw to the glove.

“I never throw to the mitt, because I have so much movement,” said Hernandez, who features a cutter. “I just try to stay between the knees. I always tell my catcher to set up on halves of the plate. Let’s say the middle of the plate is the point. Instead of setting up on the outer black, I have him set up in between the point and the black. I throw the ball and let it play for a strike.”

Hernandez is more precise when it comes to breaking balls, but he‘s still not throwing directly to the mitt.

“If I’m throwing a curveball for a strike, I usually aim for his shoulder,” explained the left-hander. “My curveball is going to break from his right shoulder to the mitt. With a changeup, I’ll focus on the bottom of his face mask to drop it in for a strike. If I don’t want to throw it for a strike, I’ll focus more on the mitt and let it fall below the zone.”

Lester and Miller visualize their breaking pitches, albeit in slightly different ways.

“If I’m throwing a strike curveball, I’m looking at the glove,” said Lester. “I’m a visual person, so I pick out spots in my head, or remember a curveball I threw in the past that I can draw from. I visualize it and throw it.”

“A slider, a pitch that has that much action… personally, I have to visualize the whole path of the pitch,” said Miller. “I’m not throwing at a left-handed hitter’s hip. That’s too simplified for me. I need to see the whole thing in my head. If I wasn’t visualizing, I’d be in deep trouble.”

——

D.J. Baxendale has a backup plan. If his playing career doesn’t pan out, the 23-year-old Minnesota Twins pitching prospect will be interviewing his former teammates.

“I was a journalism major in college,” said Baxendale, who attended the University of Arkansas. “My aunt was a news anchor in Texarkana for awhile, and I’ve always wanted to do something in sports, so I jumped right in. I learned from taking classes that a lot of work goes into it, but I liked talking in front of the camera and interviewing people.”

The right-hander isn’t ready to switch sides of the microphone just yet. He went 12-7 with a 3.90 ERA between Fort Myers and New Britain in his first full professional season. This year he’s back with the Double-A Rock Cats, who are expected to add Byron Buxton to the roster once his wrist injury is fully healed.

“I can’t imagine what it would be like to be Byron Buxton,” said Baxendale. “Being such a high-profile guy… it’s got to be tough. Knowing Buxton, he was really shy about it at first. I give him a lot of credit for how much he‘s grown up in that area. He’s really worked on being able to talk in front of a camera, and to talk to reporters. He feels a lot more comfortable in that environment now. It’s not always easy.”

How do players view the media when they enter a clubhouse?

It’s kind of a mixed reaction,” opined Baxendale. “Some guys don’t really like talking to the media, because don’t feel comfortable with it. Some guys don’t really have a care either way, they just see it as part of the job. Then you have guys who really enjoy talking to the media. They like cameras. They get a real kick out of it.”

I asked if there is ever resentment toward a player getting the lion’s share of attention.

“No, it is what it is,” answered Baxendale. “We all have a pretty good idea of where we rank as prospects. We know the higher-up guys draw the most. There are first-round picks and there are 40th-round picks. That’s just part of life in the minor leagues.”

Where does he fit in?

“I don’t like to classify myself as far as prospect status,” said the 2012 10th-rounder. “I let all the big sources handle that. Whatever they want to say about me, they will. That’s how it works.”

——

Robbie Ross is working out of the Rangers rotation after spending the last two years in their bullpen. He embraces his new role. The 24-year-old southpaw told me he likes starting because “It’s your day. You work as hard as you can to get ready for it, and when you get out there you do your best. I like that mentality.”

Ross approaches his vocation the way he approaches life. His glass is half full, and he keeps everything in perspective.

“It’s important to slow things down and just do what you can to get outs,” said Ross. “If you put too much pressure on yourself it becomes difficult to perform. Sometimes you can press so hard it’s not a game anymore. Instead of something you enjoy, it becomes stressful. This is supposed to be fun. Control your mind so you’re not thinking the bad things. Think about the good things.

“We’re working as hard as we can, but we have to remember we get to be out here playing a game. I’m where I’m at because of what God has blessed me with. [A baseball career] is very short-lived, so I want to enjoy this and do the best I can.”

Last September, Ross did his best to support an important cause. He and his wife, Brittany, participated in the NOH8 campaign, a charitable organization promoting marriage, gender and human equality.

“It was important to us because it was a no-hate campaign,” explained Ross. “[Gays and lesbians] are being discriminated against. There’s a lot of bitterness and hate being directed toward them. What we were saying is that they shouldn’t be treated wrong. They’re people and should be showed love.

“There are obviously guys [in MLB] who are gay. That’s something we’re going to have to deal with [when players start coming out]. We should love people and accept them for who they are. As a Christian, I believe God is going to ultimately judge us for how we live our lives. There’s no reason for us to be judging.”

Ross is non-judgmental, but the same can’t be said for everyone wearing a big-league uniform. I asked him what the response was from teammates and others within the game.

“No one really had much to say about it,” said Ross. “It was mostly just Christian people asking me what I thought. It was different for a lot of them, but I think there was a lot of acceptance. They knew my heart was in the right place. I was just trying to be accepting and show people love.”

In 2008, the Minnesota Twins drafted Aaron Hicks 14th overall. Four years later they took Byron Buxton second overall. The latter is 20 years old and the top prospect in the game. The former is 24 years old and… what exactly? A placeholder? A late-bloomer? An enigma?

The correct answer is probably “all of the above,” which leads to another question. Actually, it leads to a pair of related questions: Will Hicks play well enough to be the Twins everyday centerfielder in 2014? If he does — first he’ll have to win the job over Alex Presley — how much value will he provide with his glove?

Hicks’ offensive struggles last year are obvious to the stat sheet and naked eye alike. Assessing his defense is more complicated. With the Twins playing half their games at Target Field, it is also a concern. I asked Terry Ryan about outfield defense during the Winter Meetings

“It’s imperative,” said the Twins’ general manager. “Number one, we’re in a pitcher’s park. We want a lot of range in center field. One thing it might affect is how you go about your draft. We’re looking for people who can go get a ball in the outfield. I think [Hicks] did a pretty good job doing that when he was up last year.”

“Centerfield and right field [at Target Field] are big,” agreed Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire. “They’re huge. You need to have some athletic people out there to run the ball down, and Hicks was very good.”

Defensive metrics don’t agree that Hicks was good. I asked Scott Spratt of Baseball Info Solutions why that might be.

“One reason Aaron Hicks may appear to be a better defensive center fielder than his Defensive Runs Saved (plus-2, 20th-best at the position) total indicates is that his negative value is all range-related,” said Spratt. “We have him as costing the Twins five runs due to Plus/Minus. On the other hand, Hicks saved the Twins two runs with his arm and five runs with Good Fielding Plays/Defensive Misplays, mostly due to his 13 unexpected fly ball or line drive outs and his two home run robberies. In other words, Hicks rarely made poor decisions or poor plays on the balls he could reach, which is the easier part of defensive play to visually evaluate.”

Positioning was likely a factor. According to multiple sources, Twins outfielders played deep more often than not. Lack of range in the corner positions makes that understandable, but one is left to wonder if their pitching staff would have a lower BABiP if the outfielders — particularly the speedy Hicks — played shallower.

According to Baseball Info Solutions, that may or may not be a good idea.

“Outfielders are rewarded more in DRS for deep outs and penalized more for deep non-outs because the run value on those plays is greater,” explained Spratt. “Balls that drop in front of outfielders tend to end up singles while balls over their heads tend to become doubles and triples. Differences in park dimensions can have an effect on players, but our research hasn’t uncovered any clear patterns. In a bigger parks, outfielders will sometimes position themselves deeper, which makes them more likely to convert deep balls into outs. However, that then makes shallow balls more likely to fall in as hits, and that tradeoff can balance out or skew either way depending on the positioning and skill set of a particular outfielder.”

In the case of the Twins, that particular centerfielder will be Hicks or Presley in the short term. Hicks has the higher upside, but again, we’re likely looking at a placeholder situation. Buxton is on the horizon, and according to MiLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, he’ll arrive well-positioned to help save runs.

“While most people want to talk about what Buxton can do offensively, what with his bat, power and speed profile, it would be a mistake to forget about his defense,” said Mayo. “It makes him as complete a prospect as there is in the minors today. His plus speed allows him to cover a tremendous amount of ground in center and he has as strong an arm as any outfield prospect in baseball. The whole complete package thing refers to his defense just as much as his offense.”

I haven’t had a chance to ask Buxton how deep or shallow he likes to play. I did, however, have an opportunity to ask Hicks.

“I like to play in,” said Hicks. “I like to go back on balls. It depends on who is hitting — you’re usually a little deeper for the core guys than the 7-8-9 guys — but typically I like to play shallower than most [outfielders]. That allows you take away jam hits.”

I asked Hicks how much control he has over where he’s positioned, and the young outfielder adroitly sidestepped the question. A source was more forthcoming: “Gardy hates doubles. He‘d much rather have a lot of singles fall in front of his outfielders.”

——

Mike Pelfrey knows who Xander Bogaerts is. That’s not surprising given the Red Sox shortstop is baseball’s top prospect not named Byron Buxton. The Twins righthander faced Bogaerts on Friday afternoon and induced a hard-hit 5-4-3 double play. Afterwards he was asked if he knew who was in the box.

“I did,“ said Pelfrey. “It was the first time I ever faced him, but I’ve heard very good things about him and obviously watched the World Series. I know he’s a good player. I threw a pitch inside that he turned on and was lucky Trevor Plouffe made a good play at third. I saw good hands on an inside pitch, which is something I’ll put in my head for the next time. He made a good adjustment in that at bat, which is impressive for a young player.

“With games like this, we don’t go over scouting reports, but we know the guys in our league, Even though you’re mostly working on things, you’re conscious of who is hitting. I knew who he was.”

——

Chris Capuano’s approach will be a little different than usual when he makes his Grapefruit League debut. Recently signed by the Red Sox, the southpaw has never pitched for an American League team.

“Normally it changes in your last start or two of spring training,” said Capuano. “That’s when you actually start to break down the hitters. Before that, first and foremost you make sure you’re executing pitches. For the most part, you’re looking at the hitter and trying to read the hitter, and pitching to righties and lefties the way you pitch to righties and lefties.”

That doesn’t mean Capuano eschews knowledge. Relying more on guile than pure stuff, the Duke University-educated 35-year-old utilizes every edge he can.

“If I have information that might help me get the hitter out, I’m going to use it,” said Capuano. “Maybe what I should say is the pre-game hours that go into preparing aren’t quite as intense during spring training as they are in the regular season. At this point, it’s mostly about executing pitches. I still need to learn the hitters, though. I’ve been looking at video every day and will probably do more preparation for my spring training starts than usual.”

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No one does more preparation than scouting directors. The June amateur draft is crucial to a team’s success, which means nary a rock is left unturned before decisions are made. Mistakes still happen. If you need evidence that scouting is an inexact science, scan listings of recent first rounds. It’s safe to say two dozen teams would draft Mike Trout if they could have a do-over. Every scouting director has skeletons in his closet.

Prior to becoming Senior Vice President, Player Development and Amateur Scouting for the Chicago Cubs, Jason McLeod led the draft in Boston and San Diego. McLeod has more hits than misses — especially from his time with the Red Sox — but like his scouting brethren, he’s far from perfect. A player he never actually had a chance to take is ample proof.

“When I was in San Diego, Javier Baez went right in front of us,” McLeod told me recently. “He went ninth and we took Corey Spangenberg tenth. The Cubs beat a lot of teams on Javy. They certainly beat the Padres. I have to admit we weren’t set up to take him with our pick. Thankfully, the Cubs were smart and I don’t have to wear that one too bad.”

As Padres fans know all too well, Spangenberg has thus far fallen short of expectations. Count McLeod among the surprised.

“After we signed Corey he went up to Eugene and just went bananas,” said McLeod. “Pat Murphy was our manager there. He had been the head coach at Arizona State — he and Dustin Pedroia are like father and son — and Murph was like ‘This guy is Pedroia, just from the left side and with more speed.’ Looking at what Corey did in the Northwest League, we were friggin’ digging ourselves. Then he went to Fort Wayne and has kind of been grinding along the last few years.”

I asked McLeod what he missed in Baez.

“We had some questions on his aggressiveness,” said McLeod. “Everyone saw the bat speed and the power. He was a little flashy and had the big swing. What we probably underestimated a little bit was how much Javy loves to play the game, and how much he loves to compete. In the end, we simply missed on him. We wouldn’t have taken Javy had he fallen to our pick. Thankfully the Cubs did.”

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Tommy Layne has had a fairly nondescript career. The 29-year-old reliever is 2-2, 2.84 over 40 big league appearances. Primarily a lefty specialist, he has worked just 25-and-a-third innings.

Two of those innings are noteworthy. Both came in 2012 with the San Diego Padres. The first was Layne’s big league debut, the second his first win. The southpaw remembers them well.

“My first game was against Atlanta [on August 14] and my first batter was Brian McCann,” said Layne. “I froze him with a slider. Dan Uggla took a slider as well. Tyler Pastornicky swung through a slider. All three strikeouts were on sliders thrown from my lower arm slot.

Against the Dodgers [on September 4], the first guy I faced was Adrian Gonzalez. I threw an over-the-top slider in the dirt that he swung through. Matt Kemp swung through a fastball. Then I froze Hanley Ramirez on a slider.”

Two games, six batters, six strikeouts. The Atlanta performance came in mop-up duty. The outing against the Dodgers came in the 10th inning of a 3-3 game.

I asked Layne — currently in camp with the Red Sox — if the games define his career.

“They really don‘t,” answered Layne. “If you think about it, you’re really only as good as the last time you threw the ball. That doesn’t mean my debut wasn’t awesome. It’s something I’ll carry with me until the day I die. My first win was the same kind of thing. They were good innings, but in no way, shape or form do they define me as a pitcher.”

What does define Layne is deception. Add creative game calling, and — at least on two special occasions — you have a recipe for success..

“The strikeouts had a lot to do with my catchers calling pitches that were outside the box of how I usually think of getting guys out,” explained Layne. “I throw from two different arm slots. Some pitches I throw from a lower arm slot and usually just to lefties. They had me throwing them to righties.

“Over the top, my repertoire is fastball, curveball, cutter and changeup. I also throw a fastball and a slider from about a foot lower than my normal arm slot. It’s kind of sidearm and kind of herky jerky. I’ve heard from hitters that it sort of comes out of nowhere. What I’m basically doing is shaping a pitch a little differently and creating some extra deception.”

In Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano the Minnesota Twins have two of the very best prospects in baseball. It’s probably no surprise that they then also arguably have the best prospect in the game at two different positions. Buxton is the best prospect in the game – full stop. So he’s obviously the best outfield prospect in the game. For my money, there’s no better third baseman than Sano in the minors either. This got me curious about how often this sort of thing happens, and more importantly how often this situation leads to success.

Fans often have this ideal in their mind of a group of talented young prospects coming along, developing into homegrown stars and leading their team to glory. It’s a common theme to pretty much every sport. People all over the World share this sentiment. In soccer, when supporters see a strong group of youth players coming through the junior national ranks they often term that group a “Golden Generation.” That’s where the name of this article comes from. There’s more than one way to build a champion of course, but the path of homegrown stars rising to glory is probably the most satisfying from a fan (and baseball ops!) point of view. After all, drafting, signing and developing amateur talent is to many people the “right way” to run a baseball team. It’s certainly not the only way. Teams have succeeded through free agency and trades as well. Yet, the most popular players in baseball ever seem to be the homegrown heroes. I wanted to see just generally how often this scenario plays out successfully in recent history. How often does a golden generation of prospects develop and lead a team to a title – or at least some success?

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Alex Meyer doesn’t shy away from the power-pitcher label. The 6-foot-9 right-hander readily acknowledges having a big fastball. It won’t be long before it’s on display at Target Field.

The Minnesota Twins acquired Meyer in the November 2012 deal that sent Denard Span to the Washington Nationals. A year earlier, Washington had drafted him 23rd overall out of the University of Kentucky.

Limited to fewer than 80 regular-season innings because of a tender shoulder, Meyer finished up the year with the Arizona Fall League’s Glendale Desert Dogs. The 23-year-old talked about his power arsenal during the last week of the AFL campaign. Also weighing in on his game — and his future — were Twins general manager Terry Ryan, and manager Ron Gardenhire. Read the rest of this entry »

The preliminary rosters were recently announced for the impending Arizona Fall League. If you’re not familiar with the AFL, all you really need to know is that it’s an off-season league that offers addition innings/at-bats to prospects from around baseball. Some of the names you’ll know quite well. Others, well, you’ll probably never hear from again. And, frankly, a lot of players fall under that latter grouping.

Because there is such a wide range of talent in the league — as well as for a smattering of other reasons — any numbers produced in the league should be taken with a grain of salt. Oh, and each organization is responsible for providing a specific number of prospects to play in the league.

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Glen Perkins knows his FIP. He also knows his HR/9, Z-Swing% and O-Swing%. More importantly, he understands what they mean. As the Minnesota Twins left-hander says, “I like baseball and I like math.”

Perkins is more than a stat geek. The 30-year-old converted starter is one of the better closers in the American League (despite his skepticism of modern-day closer usage). Six weeks into the current campaign he’s well on his way to topping last year’s save total, despite a markedly higher ERA — a number he considers less important than his FIP.

Perkins talked about his 2013 numbers prior to last night’s game at Fenway Park.

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Scott Diamond throws strikes. The Minnesota Twins left-hander walked just 1.61 batters per nine innings last year, lowest in the American League among qualified pitchers. After beginning the current campaign on the disabled list, his rate is a puny 1.2 in four starts.

The 26-year-old control artist also doesn’t log many strikeouts. In 173 innings last year, his K-rate was 4.68. That ranked him second from the bottom in the A.L., ahead of only Henderson Alvarez. So far this season he’s a tick better at 5.2.

Can Diamond match last year’s success — a 3.54 ERA and team-best 12 wins — with his pitch-to-contact ways? Some are skeptical, but he didn’t exactly rely on smoke and mirrors in his rookie season. He had a respectable 3.94 FIP and his .292 BABIP wasn‘t far from league average. His 53.4 ground-ball rate should be sustainable despite the absence of a two-seam fastball in his repertoire.

Diamond takes the mound tonight against the Red Sox at Fenway Park.

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Scott Diamond on his approach: “I get guys out by throwing strikes. I make them feel uncomfortable by getting ahead and playing the numbers game — the odds of them getting themselves out. We had a pitcher last year, P.J. Walters, who worked a lot with Dave Duncan when he was with the Cardinals. I don’t know if this number is exact, but he said when hitters swing at the first pitch they hit something like .158. If I get ahead early, I have them in a hole.

“My mentality for getting ahead is simply throwing a strike down in the zone. A lot of that is based on scouting guys beforehand. I’m looking at my approach against theirs and seeing where I want to locate. But I’m also keeping it simple in terms of halves of the plate. I’m not locating to a particular sector. A lot of scouting reports say my ball doesn’t move a lot, but based on the reactions I get from hitters, I throw to general sectors and let my ball do what it needs to do.”

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Vance Worley will be displaying his uniquely-diverse repertoire in the Twin Cities this summer. Ditto his deception. Acquired by Minnesota from the Phillies in the Ben Revere deal, the 25-year-old right-hander throws six different pitches. They include a four-seam fastball that acts like a cutter and a cutter that acts like a slider. His delivery has produced a k-swing% markedly lower than league average each of the past two seasons.

Worley talked about his repertoire last week in Fort Myers.

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David Laurila: How do you get hitters out?

Vance Worley: For me, it’s about setting pitches up. It’s being able to go inside, back out, up in the zone, bounce a pitch when you need to. Get guys guessing.

DL: Is velocity important to your game?

VW: It can be, but it’s more just flashing it. You don’t have to throw everything 100 percent. Some guys call it a BP fastball. You throw it with command more than velocity. At times you’ll show a hitter something, then come back and throw something harder.

For some reason, on my first pitch of the game, I can never throw anything over 87 mph. It doesn’t matter how hard I try. But I’m usually somewhere between 86 to 93, maybe 94.

DL: Do you throw a two-seamer or four-seamer?

VW: Both, and I have command of both. Whatever is working better is what I’m probably going to throw more. I had a two-seam before I got drafted, but at the lower levels of the minor leagues they wanted me to focus more on four-seamers. I did that until I realized my four-seam was straight. If a ball is straight it’s going to get hit, so I went back to knowing what I knew how to do. That was to throw more sinkers.

DL: You’ve had a low home run rate. Is that mostly a matter of location?

VW: Not necessarily. Read the rest of this entry »