Archive for MVP

Most of the time when we talk about Mike Trout, we ask if anybody has ever done what he’s doing. Sometimes the answer is Mickey Mantle or Ty Cobb or Albert Pujols, but a lot of the time the answer is no and what Trout is doing is unprecedented. Today, we are asking two related questions:

1. Could Mike Trout deserve the American League Most Valuable Player Award despite missing 39 games earlier this season?
2. Does Mike Trout have a realistic chance to win MVP despite missing 39 games earlier this season?

While answering the second question might help prove the first through precedent, let’s restrict ourselves in the first part to the value Mike Trout provides. On Friday, I talked about Jose Altuve’s candidacy for MVP and showed this chart:

Things have already changed considerably. This is what the top of that chart looks like now.

So Trout is currently projected to be the AL position player WAR leader at the end of the season. If he keeps up his current pace and gets close to the the 200 more plate appearances he is projected for, he is going to get above 8 WAR. Trout is currently above a 200 wRC+, a number that hasn’t been reached since Barry Bonds and done by only nine players in non-strike seasons in history. He will actually have to exceed his projections in PAs to qualify for the batting title, as he is currently set to fall eight short. Read the rest of this entry »

Jose Altuve is a conventional contender for the MVP award, but at the same time, he really isn’t. As the best player on the best team in the American League — by a fairly large margin — Altuve checks off the two biggest boxes some voters use when filling out the ballot. He’s also a bit non-traditional, as he doesn’t hit a whole lot of homers or drive a ton of runners in. While he doesn’t have the typical power numbers of an MVP-winner, his overall line and overall value are immense, and he just pulled off one of the best hitting months of the last half-decade.

In the month of July, Jose Altuve hit .485/.523/.727, good for a wRC+ of 242, highest for any player in a month this season with a minimum of 80 plate appearances. Since 2002, the only player with a higher batting average in a month was Ivan Rodriguez, who hit .500 back in June of 2004.

We know that batting average has its flaws, and it might seem disappointing to find out Altuve’s .523 OBP only ranks 36th in any month since 2002. However, 13 of those months are courtesy of Barry Bonds. When we look at Altuve’s overall hitting numbers and account for park and era, that 242 wRC+ ranks 23rd, with Barry Bonds taking the top four slots and one more in the top-15. Since 2012, here are the best 11 months by a hitter:

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In some seasons, the Most Valuable Player award is a close race between a few worthy position players with a pitcher thrown into the mix if the circumstances align. This year, in the National League, the voting was unanimous for the MVP, and for good reason. In the American League, there were only really two serious candidates for the award, with one fact underlining that point: in MVP voting, each voter ranks players from one to ten, and this year in the AL, every ballot except for one had either Mike Trout or Josh Donaldson in first or second place.

Given that there were only two serious candidates in the AL, there was a fair amount of discussion about who was the worthier of the two players. We could say this was a battle of statistics versus context: a better statistical season (Trout) versus the offensive lifeblood of a playoff-bound Toronto team (Donaldson). Defensively, Donaldson had a better season, but Trout was clearly superior on the offensive side of the ball. Take a look at their full stats side-by-side (wRC+ uses 100 as league average, while UZR is how many runs better the player was than a league average defender):

In the end, the context that is often added to the MVP award won out: Donaldson led his Toronto team to the playoffs after the city had endured a 21-year postseason drought, compiling an incredible offensive and defensive campaign in the process. As is so often the case, there was no true right or wrong answer on who should have won the award; it was close enough to where both players could have deserved it, and it was a matter of opinion that separated them. When all is said and done, baseball is about winning games, however, and Donaldson benefitted from being a key piece of a team that won more games than Trout’s Anaheim Angels.

Discussing the worthiness of each player winning the AL MVP has already been covered at length. If you’ve paid attention to this award season, you probably know the arguments for and against both Trout and Donaldson: we’ve even recapped a few of them here. What is well-known is who Donaldson currently is. What is less-known is who he Donaldson was, and where he now stands among historical MVPs. In context, who he was is a huge part of the story, and we’ll see that it’s pretty rare that he turned into who he is.

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This past weekend, the Toronto Blue Jays swept the Los Angeles Angels in a three-game series, dominating the Halos by a combined score of 36-10. The series represented a few important points: not only did the three wins vault the Jays over the New York Yankees for sole possession of first place in the AL East, but it also featured a matchup of the current favorites in the AL MVP race, Mike Trout and Josh Donaldson. While Trout went 3-10 during the series (all three hits coming in the series finale), Donaldson showed why he is beginning to be viewed as a possible contender for the league’s MVP, going 8 for 13 with a home run, four doubles and nine RBI.

Up until this season — even up until a month ago, in fact — the idea of Donaldson being a serious front-runner in an MVP race would have been viewed as very optimistic. He’s been in the conversation as one of the best overall position players in baseball since his breakout in 2013 (his 21.2 Wins Above Replacement since the start of the 2013 season is second only to Trout’s 25.2), but a strict comparison with Trout in the past probably would have been seen as a reach. That has little to do with Donaldson: Trout is the best player in baseball, and a normal year for Trout would be the best year of basically anyone else’s career.

Then this past offseason’s trade from Oakland to Toronto occurred, and Donaldson showed that the move to the Rogers Centre was most likely going to pay serious dividends for his statistics. Early on in this season, it became evident he might be tailoring his swing to pull more fly balls when he was playing at home, resulting in an astounding power increase that has showed no signs of slowing down in the ensuing months. His home/road splits are more pronounced than they ever have been, showing the influence of his home park’s friendliness to hitters — and his ability to exploit it:

Read the rest on Just a Bit Outside.

Justin Verlander notched win No. 20 this past weekend. With the victory, he became the season’s first to reach the milestone, and perhaps most impressively, the first AL pitcher to hit the 20-win mark through August since Roger Clemens did it in 1997 with Toronto.

Combine factoids like this with his tremendous numbers so far, and it’s easy to see why many are boarding the Verlander-for-Cy Young Award bandwagon. And that might just be the start: Verlander now has emerged as a legitimate candidate for the American League’s Most Valuable Player award. But should be considered for the honor? In fact, should any pitcher win an MVP? Heck, is Verlander even a lock for the Cy Young?

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The baseball season still has two and a half months left of games to be played, but the bifurcation around the All Star Game often results in award discussions. The discussions tend to grow contentious when one player clearly stands out amongst the crop of candidates, but is passed over in lieu of a player with a more fitting narrative.

Right now, Jose Bautista is the most valuable player in the American League, not Adrian Gonzalez.

Bautista boasts a .334/.468/.702 line, and a gaudy .487 wOBA. He has launched 31 home runs in 84 games, and is on pace to hit right around 50 by the end of the season. He is walking in almost 20 percent of his plate appearances and has actually improved his strikeout rate. With average defense and plus-baserunning, it becomes difficult to point out any flaws in his game. Last year was clearly his breakout season, as he tallied 6.9 wins above replacement. In slightly over half of a season this year he has already produced 6.6 WAR, and very well may turn in one of the best seasons in the history of baseball.

Gonzalez is having a fantastic season, but one very clearly south of Bautista. The Red Sox first baseman has a higher batting average at .354, and a better fielding mark (albeit at an easier position), and that’s about it. His on-base percentage is 54 points lower. His .591 slugging percentage is 111 points lower. Put everything together and Gonzalez has a .429 wOBA, which would lead the league if not for the fact that Bautista’s mark is almost 60 points higher. Gonzalez is the best player in the American League outside of the Jose Bautista division, but there is a clear line of demarcation between he and Bautista.

Why are so many touting Gonzalez as the MVP of the first half? The arguments tend to boil down to the following areas: his quest for the batting title, the high RBI total, clutch performance, and the performance of the Red Sox as a team.

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Episode Forty-Five
In which the panel takes one step back and, like, a half-dozen forward.

Headlines
You Can Spell Josh Hamilton Without M or V or P, But You Shouldn’t*
Lefties, Lefties Everywhere: AL Cy Candidates
Cage Fighting: Cameron v Joe Pawl

*Especially since M is a letter in his surname.

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Bad as He Wants to Be
Jackie Moore, Real-Live Middle Wester
Joe Pawl, Real-Live New Yorker

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 40 min play time.)

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The title to this post is one of the most common sayings amongst baseball fans. It also happens to be the saying that drives me the zaniest, makes me want to bang pots and pans on my head, or tie someone to a chair and force them to watch, on a continuous loop, the film You Got Served. Albert Pujols recently won his second MVP award. The BBWAA got it right, thankfully, but Pujols winning the vote by a final tally of 369-308 was much too close for my liking, regardless of who finished second. Add in that the second place finisher was Ryan Howard of the Phillies and this is when I begin to lose my cool. Keep in mind while reading this article that I am a devout Phillies fan, and that I am not criticizing the writer’s association for a 369-308 final tally, but rather criticizing everyone across the country who felt that Howard truly should have sniffed the MVP award.

To start things off, why did anyone even think Howard deserved the award, or felt he had a good shot of winning, in the first place? He hit 48 home runs and knocked in 146 runners, very gaudy power numbers. This is the first reason. The only other reason conjured up involves… ugh… Howard “hitting when it counted.” Yes, in September, when the Phillies were fighting to get into the playoffs, Howard did more than just endorse Subway: he hit .352/.422/.852, a 1.274 OPS, with 11 home runs. His September performance carried the team into the post-season, where they eventually won the World Series. Because his performance earned the team a playoff berth, he must be highly considered for the award, right? Right?

Is it just me, or does the entire season count? I mean, I know I’m not a rocket scientist (another cliche favorite of mine), but I do know that statistics and performances technically count for the entire duration of the 162-game season. Going off of this, Howard only hit when it counted some of the time, because, for half of the season, he was average or below average. In April, he hit .172/.297/.343, with five home runs. In June, .234/.287/.439, and in August, .213/.328/.463. Even if you ignore the batting average aspect of the slash line and focus on the OBP/SLG, those are not solid months. Those are Ronnie Belliard months. Did anyone stop to think that if Howard had performed even on par with slightly above average offensive players in those three months, that he wouldn’t have needed to carry the Phillies in September?

I mean, sure, we cannot go back and change the course of history like in that Ashton Kutcher movie, but I would venture a guess that if Howard posted even an OPS of .830 in those months, that the Phillies would have been in a great situation entering September with regards to the playoffs. Instead, he was essentially reverse-anchored, and his entire season was evaluated with the final month in mind. The opposite happened to Chase Utley, who went crazy in April/May, and tailed off the rest of the season, still posting great numbers, but built on a performance far from fresh in the minds of fans and voters. Nobody remembers movies or performances from January and February when it comes time to the Academy Awards, and that is pretty much exactly what happened with Utley. Back to Howard, though, who by no means deserved to win the award, or even finish second.

Howard’s WPA/LI this season was 2.93, pretty good, but by no means great. On his own team, here are some other players and their context-neutral win contributions: Chase Utley (3.63), Cole Hamels (2.83), Pat Burrell (2.77), Jayson Werth (2.70). Factor in Brad Lidge’s 5.37 WPA as a closer, and that gives us five other players on the Phillies that were either better than Howard in terms of overall production, or very close to him. Suffice it to say, strong cases were not made for Hamels, Burrell, Utley, or Werth.

His 2.93 WPA/LI ranked 16th in the senior circuit, but where did he rank in some other categories? His home run and RBI totals topped all others in the whole sport, but outside of that, he honestly did not have an impressive season. His OBP ranked 49th, and despite the 48 HR, his SLG finished sixth best. Put together, this slotted him 14th in the OPS department. Howard’s WPA ranked 23rd, and in the fielding department, he finished 12th at the position. For those curious, Pujols ranked either first, second, or third in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, WPA, and WPA/LI, as well as fourth in home runs and ninth in RBIs.

The most interesting statistic I saw involving Howard’s candidacy was this: in 700 PAs, Howard posted a 2.93 WPA/LI, making him about three wins above an average player offensively. In just 229 PAs with the Dodgers, Manny Ramirez posted a 3.10 WPA/LI. And keep in mind that WPA/LI is a counting stat, just like home runs.

Ryan Howard is an important part of the Phillies, and his September performance did carry them into the playoffs; however, strong April numbers would have counted just as much, and likely would have prevented September from meaning as much as it did to the team. For someone to “hit when it counts,” that player should be consistently great all year long, since the entire season counts. I can understand his candidacy in a year when there really isn’t a clear-cut winner for the award, but Pujols was so far ahead of everyone else that it is borderline absurd for certain writers or fans to froth at the mouth over Howard’s exclusion from several ballots. As a fan of his team, I can vouch that without his production, the Phillies wouldn’t have been nearly as good, but the same can be said, if not moreso, for Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, Brad Lidge, Pat Burrell, and Jayson Werth.

No matter how you look at it, unless you are advocating giving the MVP award to someone with only one amazing month, Howard did not deserve the award, should not have finished second, and definitely should not have finished that far ahead of Utley.

Over at Statistically Speaking, and The Hardball Times, my pal and colleague Pizza Cutter has posted the results of what I guess we are deeming the Renegade BBWAA Awards. The premise was simple: contact as many stathead bloggers as possible, and ask them to offer first, second, and third place votes for the three major awards in each league. The awards in question were the MVP, Cy Young Award, and Rookie of the Year. It did not make much sense to include Comeback Player of the Year or any other absolutely ridiculous award designed to give some sponsor of major league baseball air time.

The results are posted at both of the linked sites in the above paragraph, but instead of going over who we voted for, with arguments for and/or against, I wanted to touch on how we probably picked the same player as the BBWAA in five of the six instances. I cannot see Albert Pujols not winning the NL MVP, though I sincerely doubt it will be a unanimous victory as in our poll. Geovany Soto is a lock for NL Rookie of the Year, and while I personally voted for Johan Santana for NL Cy Young Award, I have a very strong inclination that Tim Lincecum will walk home with some impressive hardware.

The AL Rookie of the Year award was essentially won by Evan Longoria after one week in the major leagues. Okay, maybe not literally, but what I mean is that ever since his call-up, this has been his award to lose, and despite missing time with an injury, he will probably receive votes for a more “important” award, let alone enough to win this one. In the AL Cy Young Award race, I felt our results most clearly depicted what happened in the junior circuit this year, with Cliff Lee eventually winning, but Roy Halladay finishing very, very close. I can honestly see Cliff being an almost unanimous choice in reality, but Halladay definitely deserves some first place votes. Hey, at least Toronto has some BBWAA members!

The only award that seems to be up in the air is the AL MVP. I mean seriously, who is the AL’s most valuable player? Our votes resulted in a tie between Joe Mauer of the Twins and Grady Sizemore of the Indians. Alex Rodriguez finished third, with Dustin Pedroia finishing fourth. I support the Mauer choice even though he lacks the drama and superstar quality that writers seem to look for. I cannot support the Grady Sizemore choice for the simple reason that I just cannot truly justify giving both the Cy Young Award and MVP to players on an 81-81 team. A team does not have to make the playoffs to have an award winner, but the Indians were out of the race all season. Sizemore had a fantastic year, and put up gaudy statistics, but if I had to vote for the MVP specifically from the Indians, I might actually be more inclined to go with Lee. And why isn’t Evan Longoria getting more mention?

I really see Pedroia taking home the award when it is announced, but has there been a tougher AL MVP race in recent history? It seems that nobody is a clear-cut candidate. Anyways, if you are interested in participating in this next year, simply send myself or Pizza Cutter an e-mail.

While I firmly believe the comments made by Jimmy Rollins towards Philadelphia fans was a non-story, and, well, true, the fact is that he is having a very poor followup to his 2007 MVP campaign. Granted, some will argue that he should not have won the award in the first place, but he did, and his performance with the bat this year has been anything but award-worthy. Now, in the field, he has been a +8 shortstop this year to go along with his +7 last year and +12 in 2006. The issue, however, is that the perceived effectiveness of a player is generally born out of his offensive performance and production in timely situations.

In other words, WPA is a pretty good indicator of the MVP award, because voters aren’t going to stop and think about what would have happened if every plate appearance just counted as one (WPA/LI). They look at overall numbers, the clutchiness, and more like-factors. With that in mind, and with Rollins’ offensive struggles this year, I took a look at the MVP winners over the last twenty years (1988-2007), along with their WPAs in both the award year and the next year. The ultimate goal being to see if anyone else has had such a drastic perceived drop in effectiveness.

  Year          NAME             WPA1   WPA2   WPA-Drop
  1988      Kirk Gibson          5.00    0.87    -4.13
  1989      Kevin Mitchell       6.91    2.86    -4.05
  1990      Barry Bonds          5.63    7.99     2.36
  1991      Terry Pendleton      3.57    4.81     1.24
  1992      Barry Bonds          5.92    7.79     1.87
  1993      Barry Bonds          7.79    4.82    -2.97
  1994      Jeff Bagwell         5.79    4.70    -1.09
  1995      Barry Larkin         3.96    3.54    -0.42
  1996      Ken Caminiti         6.10    4.38    -1.72
  1997      Larry Walker         6.65    2.63    -4.02
  1998      Sammy Sosa           6.09    4.11    -1.98
  1999      Chipper Jones        6.36    2.16    -4.20
  2000      Jeff Kent            4.85    1.21    -3.64
  2001      Barry Bonds         11.63   10.57    -1.06
  2002      Barry Bonds         10.57    8.36    -2.21
  2003      Barry Bonds          8.36   12.63     4.27
  2004      Barry Bonds         12.63    0.26   -12.37
  2005      Albert Pujols        4.15    9.57     5.42
  2006      Ryan Howard          8.10    3.11    -4.99
  2007      Jimmy Rollins        2.69    0.33    -2.36

Now, Gibson in 1989 and Bonds in 2005 were both injured and missed significant time, so their second year WPA numbers should be disregarded. Other than that, though, Rollins is not alone in his perceived dropoff. In fact, his dropoff from last year to right now is actually less than some others on this list. What also needs to be taken into account is how his WPA in the MVP year is the lowest of anyone in the last twenty years—so there is much less to drop off from—but he has not been the worst in terms of WPA differential between the award year and the year after. His .747 OPS is disappointing, but he has been solid in the field, and despite the criticism pointed towards him with the hustle or lack of puncuality, the situation could be much worse.