Archive for Oakland Athletics

With the trade of Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney to Boston in exchange for Josh Reddick and a pair of minor leaguers, one of the questions A’s fans are asking is, “Who is Miles Head?” The short answer is that Head is a mid-level prospect who would have been ranked in the 15-20 range among Red Sox farmhands by most publications in the coming days. A more detailed description will tell you that…

…Miles Head can hit a baseball. The 20-year-old first baseman proved that last summer, bashing his way to one of the best seasons of anyone in the Red Sox system. Splitting the year between low-A Greenville and high-A Salem, he emerged as a legitimate prospect by hitting .299/.372/.515, with 37 doubles and 22 home runs.

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“How does he get guys out?” That was my question for Bob Melvin at the Winter Meetings, and I asked it six times. I queried the Oakland skipper about three of his starters: Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez and Brandon McCarthy, and a like number of relievers: Craig Breslow, Andrew Bailey and Fautino De Los Santos. Here are his capsule scouting reports on each, plus a bonus question about pitchers and data.

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Melvin on Trevor Cahill: “He’s a little against the grain for a sinkerballer in that most sinkerballers pitch in to a righty and away from a lefty. His bread and butter is actually the other way around. It’s off the body to a lefty and a backdoor sinker to a righty. Certain pitchers have certain holes they go to, and that’s what he tries to establish. It’s what he’s always done.

“Usually, the arm-side slot is the easier one to throw to, and he’s throwing to the glove-side slot, which is a little more difficult to do. I think he’ll get better when he pitches to both sides equally effectively, so not only is he a talented guy with a lot of movement, he has some upside as well.

“Even if he gets behind in the count, he has secondary pitches that he can get over, so along with the movement on his sinker, his unpredictability is one of the biggest reasons he gets hitters out.”

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Special thanks to Brandon McCarthy for taking the time to walk me through his experiences as a pitcher, and providing me with countless insights I never would have discovered researching on my own. 

When part one ended, we had covered the final changes McCarthy made to his delivery in Winter Ball, and were about to analyze his 2011 season. It’s safe to say that Oakland seems to have been the right choice, as the end result of two years of hard work and frustration was a league-leading 2.86 FIP built on the strength of a 1.32 BB/9 and 0.58 HR/9 – both by far career lows. He also mixed these with a solid 6.49 K/9 and career high 46.7% ground ball rate. The groundball rate can be explained fairly easily by the increased use of sinkers and cutters*, but it’s not often that we see a pitcher cut his walk rate by 2/3 almost overnight. However, these were the stats that McCarthy was chasing going into 2011.

“I CANNOT (emphasis McCarthy’s) stand the “nerd stat” narrative and the disdain for them, especially considering how valuable they can be… They’re accurate barometers of what you’re actually doing… Those are the numbers that I was chasing after. I wanted lower home runs, I wanted lower walks, more ground balls, and to get to the top of that category the first year after the changes is a nice accomplishment.”

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Special thanks to Brandon McCarthy for taking the time to walk me through his experiences as a pitcher, and providing me with countless insights I never would have discovered researching on my own.

There has been plenty of ink spilt this season over Justin Verlander’s American League MVP candidacy, and he is a shoo-in for the AL Cy Young Award. A large part of the narrative is the 24 wins, but one would assume that all the gushing means he had one of the most dominant pitching seasons of the last decade. However, when controlling for run environment, Dave Cameron notes that the last two AL Cy Young winners, Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez, had better ERA’s relative to league average than Verlander. Moving on to the advanced stats, Verlander did not even lead the league in FIP in 2011. Neither did his nearest competitor for the award, CC Sabathia. It was in fact Brandon McCarthy of the Oakland Athletics.

In 2010, McCarthy was a 26 year-old pitcher with 372.2 Major League innings under his belt toiling away in Oklahoma City, AAA affiliate of the Texas Rangers. He had been cut from the big league club following a rough Spring Training, and was toying with his mechanics and pitch repertoire, all while battling micro stress fractures in his right shoulder. Injuries limited him to 56.1 innings that season, and while the 3.36 ERA looked tidy, a 79.9% strand rate masked a less impressive 4.23 FIP.  As a pitcher who is in tune with defense independent statistics and had experienced severe arm injuries four years in a row, McCarthy said “it was at that point that I was going to have to start considering my options outside of baseball.” A year later, he was the American League FIP leader.  To figure out this transformation, let’s travel back in time.

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Former Braves and current Yankees “prospect” Cody Johnson blasted the longest home run I’ve ever seen. In 2008, it came against St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Maikel Cleto (A Mets prospect at the time). Johnson turned on a 95 MPH fastball at the letters, and in turn, seared an “80 power” grade into my mind for eternity. At the time, I wasn’t really concerned about the metrics behind actually producing to the home run equivalent “80 power” (38+ home runs at the Major League level), but neither were scouting contacts. In retrospect, I should have paid more attention as his K%, 34.4%, made it impossible to project elite power from any prospect.

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Over the past week and a half, the reaction to Buster Posey’s season-ending injury produced a lot of sanctimony, as pundits have gone back and forth between deploring that one of baseball’s brightest young stars would miss the year, and deploring the hypocrisy that previous catcher injuries have not brought about debate about a rules chance. Amidst all the blather and debate about rules, though, Billy Beane’s Athletics have suggested a team-oriented way forward. Beane effectively ordered his catcher, Kurt Suzuki, to avoid injury:

I said to him, “I don’t want you planting yourself in front of the plate waiting to get creamed. You’re an Athletic catcher — be athletic. … I don’t want to lose you for six months.”

To me, this seemed like a remarkable public admission: I can’t remember another baseball executive telling the press that he instructed a player to try to prioritize avoiding injury. In a blog post yesterday, Buster Olney suggested that the greatest impact of Beane’s move may the fact that he’s providing public cover to Suzuki. Suzuki publicly agreed with the plan and described his future approach to plays at the plate in strategic terms, as he explained to the San Jose Mercury-News: “If I have a feeling it’s going to be a bang-bang play, and I’m putting myself in a vulnerable position, I’m not going to stand in front of [the runner]… If I think he’s going to slide, then I’ll take my chances.” Now that Beane has gone to the press, more players will be able to save face in baseball’s macho culture while avoiding injury, making it seem like sound baseball strategy rather than selfishness or cowardice — more like Rogers Hornsby and less like Roger Dorn.
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There was something oddly fitting about both a statue of Bud Selig being unveiled and the final set of leaked MLB financial documents becoming public on Tuesday. Selig has said on more than one occasion that we’re witnessing the “Golden Era” of baseball, citing the economic windfall that has come to the league over the last decade. Revenue-sharing, a pride and joy of Selig’s, is at the center of the largest public release of club financial documents – leaked to Deadspin – that include the Pirates, Rays, Mariners, Marlins, Angels, and Rangers (see them all here).

In July of 2000, with the league claiming projected losses of $232 million for the 2001 season, Selig came before Congress with his Blue Ribbon Panel on Baseball Economics report, which at its heart states, “Proper competitive balance will not exist until every well-run club has a regularly recurring reasonable hope of reaching postseason play.” The report then went on to say that, “The limited revenue sharing and payroll tax that were approved as part of MLB’s 1996 Collective Bargaining Agreement with the Major League Baseball Players Association have produced neither the intended moderating of payroll disparities nor improved competitive balance. Some low-revenue clubs, believing the amount of their proceeds from revenue sharing insufficient to enable them to become competitive, used those proceeds to become modestly profitable.”

So, with each Collective Bargaining Agreement since, revenue-sharing has been increased, funneling money from the haves to the have-nots of the league in order to gain competitive balance. In 2009, $433 million in revenue-sharing moved from high-revenue clubs to those in need of assistance.

Along the way, sizable increases in the amount of “central revenue” has found its way into club coffers. The growth of national television money from ESPN, FOX Sports, and TBS which total approx. $660 million a year in rights fees funnel back to each of the 30 clubs. Add in annual dividend checks from MLB Advanced Media of $2 million, revenues from MLB Properties, international broadcast agreements, etc.,  and all clubs, large revenue-making, or not, have found extra money that can be used to help produce a winning product on the diamond.

Still, the field would remain unlevel without revenue-sharing tied to net local revenues, so with the leaked Deadspin docs having three clubs (the Pirates, Marlins, and Rays) that have received considerable amounts via the revenue-sharing system, the documents provide ammunition for clubs such as the Yankees and Red Sox when collective bargaining begins in earnest shortly after the World Series ends.

Parsing the documents, here’s how much revenue-sharing was either received or paid out for a given year:

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Before the 2010 season began, many thought that the American League West was the tightest division in baseball. Everyone had their favorite, of course: the Rangers had taken a step forward in 2009 and have the best young talent, the Mariners had made many high-profile moves in the off-season, and the Angels still retained their core talent and, frankly, seemed to win every season whether people thought they would or not. While the As were acknowledged to be on the upswing, I don’t think I read a single “expert” who thought they would win the division. I thought the As had a good shot, maybe a better shot than others, but I can’t say I was overly confident in their chances.

The As haven’t won anything yet. But through Sunday’s games, they are in the lead in the West, if only by half a game over the Rangers. Yes, the As have outplayed their Pythagorean record by three games so far (although no team in the West is currently over .500 according their run differential), but those wins are “in the bank.” Can they keep it up going forward?

On offense, the As as a team haven’t been particularly “lucky,” as they’ve scored 201 runs, while creating 200 according to “absolute” linear weights runs (wRC). I doubt anyone expected the As to hit much this season, and with a .310 team wOBA, they’ve fulfilled that expectation and then some. However, 2010 is no more a constant than is 2009. A quick look at the As’ hitters and the ZiPS RoS projections indicates that some offensive improvement in 2010 is to be expected. Some hitters are a bit over their head at the moment: Daric Barton is finally fulfilling expectations with a .363 wOBA, although ZiPS RoS doesn’t expect too much regression. Second basemen Mark Ellis and Adam Rosales (who filled in while Ellis was injured) are clearly due to fall back to earth. Kurt Suzuki is back from injury and should hit better, and Rajai Davis and Ryan Sweeney should, as well. CoCo Crisp’s return from injury should shore up the outfield on both sides of the ball. Kevin Kouzmanoff isn’t a good hitter, but it’s highly unlikely he’ll finish the season with a .274 wOBA. Unlike the Mariners, the As seem to have realized that the DH is still legal in the AL West, and even a fraction of Jack Cust is better than Zombie Eric Chavez. This isn’t a good offense by any stretch of the imagination, but it is one that should be better going forward, and that’s without taking into account the possible call-ups of Chris Carter and Michael Taylor.

Oakland isn’t getting especially “lucky,” in relation to run prevention, either. The team 4.38 ERA is right in line with a 4.18 FIP and 4.25 xFIP. Of course, their starting staff’s biggest upgrade will be young ace Brett Anderson’s return fro injury, even if he (or anyone, for that matter) isn’t quite as good as he’s been so far in 2010. While neither Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Braden aren’t quite as good as they’ve pitched so far this season, they’re both starting to look like average or above-average starters. Big off-season acquisition Ben Sheets hasn’t worked wonders, but he’s not killing the team, either. Trevor Cahill has been very lucky so far, so that is something to watch.

It’s too early to get much from the fielding statistics. While according to UZR, Oakland is +2.7 runs (16th in the majors), according to Plus/Minus +23 runs (7th in the majors, but 3rd in the AL behind the Rays and Seattle). Kouzmanoff is doing well so far at 3B according to both systems. Dewan’s loves Barton, UZR not so much this year, although history is with him. Cliff Pennington is holding his own as shortstop, and Mark Ellis should improve the situation at second base. Ryan Sweeney and Rajai Davis aren’t at their usual standards, but can be expected to come around.

Overall, while the As run prevention should probably be expected to fall back a bit (although the fielding should mitigate the regression of the pitching), they should also be expected to hit better. The AL West is still a very tight race, with the Rangers and Angels right there, and a full analysis would need to include all four teams. As for the As, they haven’t played far above their talent so far, and, contrary to the pre-season expectations of many, Oakland has a good chance to remain in the divisional race for the rest of the season.

The Graduate: Daric Barton | Born: August 1985 | First Baseman

Daric Barton was being counted on to help carry the offence in 2008, but he regressed significantly after a promising minor league career and brief cup of coffee in the Majors in 2007. The former catcher, who was acquired in the trade with St. Louis for Mark Mulder, hit just .226/.327/.348 in 446 at-bats after posting a career minor league line of .299/.411/.455. He likely put too much pressure on himself to drive in the big runs. He should get a second chance in 2009 and is still only 23 years old.

The Riser: Vince Mazzaro | Born: September 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Vince Mazzaro made huge strides in 2008 after struggling in both 2006 and 2007. He began the year in Double-A, where he was dominating. Mazzaro posted an ERA of 1.90 and allowed just 115 hits 137.1 innings. He posted rates of 2.36 BB/9 and 6.82 K/9 with his repertoire of a low-90s fastball, plus change-up and developing curveball. He was roughed up a bit during a late-season promotion to Triple-A and allowed 49 hits in 33.2 innings of work. On the plus side, Mazzaro’s other rates held and his BABIP was .404.

The Tumbler: Henry Rodriguez | Born: February 1987 | Right-Handed Pitcher

The hard-throwing Venezuelan took a big step backward last season after getting pounded in Double-A, in part due to inconsistent command and in part due to the lack of a reliable breaking ball. Henry Rodriguez can throw 92-96 mph and even touch 100 mph, but better hitters can sit on the pitch. He second best pitch is a change-up. He has a ways to go to harness his stuff after posting a rate of 9.66 BB/9 in 41 Double-A innings.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Rashun Dixon | Born: August 1990 | Outfielder

Rashun Dixon is not a typical A’s draft pick. The athletic, but raw, outfielder was considered the best hitting prospect in Mississippi and had committed to play football in college. He has the potential to be a 30-30 player if he can harness his abilities. He struck out far too much in his debut in rookie ball (38 K%) but he slugged 10 triples and posted an ISO of .263. Patience is required, as Dixon should move slowly through the minor league system.

The ’09 Sleeper: Andrew Carignan | Born: July 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

A 2007 fifth round pick, Andrew Carignan has done nothing but post solid numbers in his pro career. The late-game reliever spent most of 2008 in Double-A, in his first full pro season. Carignan allowed just 36 hits in 52.2 Double-A innings but walked too many (6.66 BB/9), while striking out a ton (11.45 K/9). Once he develops better command, Carignan could challenge for a set-up role in Oakland.

Up Next: The Florida Marlins

It’s not often that a player with Chris Carter’s talent spends time with three clubs in the span of two weeks. With 39 dingers, the hulking infielder tied for second overall in minor league home runs in 2008 while playing for Oakland’s High-A ball affiliate in Stockton.

Carter, now 21, was originally drafted in the 15th round of the 2005 draft out of a Las Vegas high school. He spent three seasons in the White Sox organization before being sent to Arizona on Dec. 3, 2007 for fellow slugger Carlos Quentin. Eleven days later, Carter was part of the bounty that netted Arizona pitcher Dan Haren from the Oakland Athletics.

In his first full season in the minors in 2007, after two Rookie ball campaigns, Carter slugged 25 homers, drove in 93 runs and hit .291/.383/.522. His power numbers took another step forward this season with the Oakland organization, including an ISO increase from .231 to .310, while some of his other numbers took a step back. Carter hit .259/.361/.569 with 156 strikeouts and 77 walks in 506 at-bats. His strikeout rate rose from 24% in 2007 to 30.8% in 2008, while his walk rate remained roughly the same. Carter’s batting average was a bit of a disappointment but his BABIP was .296, compared to .336 in 2007.

Oakland has another first base prospect, Sean Doolittle, who played most of the season on the same squad as Carter, before a late-season promotion to Double-A. Carter spent time at third base to accommodate his teammate but his defence is below average at both third base (41 games, 14 errors) and first base.

Doolittle, a slick fielder, is not a classic slugger like Carter and is more of a hitter in the mold of John Olerud or Lyle Overbay. The two players should open 2009 on the same team again and it will be interesting to see which player takes the next big step needed to secure a future role on the big league club.