Archive for One Night Only

Tonight happens today, on this edition of One Night Only.

Kansas City at Toronto, 1:05 pm ET
Royals: Zack Greinke (R)
17.2 IP, 7.13 K/9, 3.06 BB/9, .334 BABIP, 41.4% GB, 7.7% HR?FB, 4.78 xFIP
Projected FIP: 2.85 (FAN) 2.98 (CHONE) 2.93 (ZiPS)
L-R Splits: 0.02 run normal split in 905.2 IP

Blue Jays: Shaun Marcum (R)
20.0 IP, 7.65 K/9, 1.35 BB/9, .276 BABIP, 43.1% GB, 9.5% HR/FB, 3.33 xFIP
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 4.43 (CHONE) 4.47 (ZiPS)
L-R Splits: 0.45 run normal split in 416.2 IP

Making his return from Tommy John surgery, Shaun Marcum has started the season better than even the smartest person in the world (i.e. Tavis Smiley) could’ve guessed. So far on the season he’s throwing his changepiece a quarter of the time and has registered a full 33% whiff rate on the pitch. That’s what we in the industry call “off the hook.”

You know what Carson Cistulli likes? (I mean, besides the ladies?) Answer: career minor leaguers getting their first real shot at the bigs. If you haven’t already, say hello to 29-year-old Mike McCoy. Here’s an interesting thing McCoy did in 2009 at Colorado’s Triple-A affiliate: slashed .307/.405/.400. Here’s another interesting thing he did: went 40-for-46 on stolen base attempts in 132 games. Before we all go peeing each other’s pants with excitement, it’s important to note that Colorado Springs (where McCoy plied his trade last year) has a park factor of right around a million*. But his profile suggests that he won’t be the terriblest player on the block, and CHONE thinks he plays a league-average short.

*Give or take.

If you’re like me, you have amazing hair and flawless skin. You also have a notion that Edwin Encarnacion might have a decent year, if and when he recovers from his current shoulder situation. In 2009, over stints with both Cincy and Toronto, Encarnacion suffered the baleful effects of a .245 BABIP. That number stands far below the .295 mark he’d posted over his career till then. Is he still kinda a sucky defender? Almost definitely, yes. But what in the H does my fantasy team care about that?

Fred Lewis is a lightning rod for nerd controversy. He’s also a Blue Jay now, and has batted leadoff and played left field for the past three games. When the aforementioned Encarnacion returns to third, Jose Bautista will stop playing there and the outfield situation will get crowdeder. How will this drama unfold?

If I’ve learned one lesson from my life on the streets, it’s that I’m not so special. It’s not a pleasant revelation, this. Though I’m neither a psychologist, nor do I even play one on TV, I feel totally comfortable stating publicly that “feeling special” is probably pretty high up there on the list of things humans want/need. Even so, there is one distinct benefit of this difficult news, and it’s this: if ever I have an idea, I can bet that someone else has probably had it, too.

So when I thought to myself recently, “Hey, you know what’d be cool? If there were a daily preview thing at FanGraphs” — well, the only reasonable conclusion I was able to draw is that probably about a gabillion other people have thought the same thing*.

*One of these gabillion people actually turns out to be FanGraphs contributor and Unbearable Math Snob Jack Moore, who will — I joke you not — be previewing the Sox/Rays Patriots’ Day game in these electronic pages roughly one hour from now.

With that, I present to you here the first installment of something I think I’ll call “One Night Only.” The idea isn’t necessarily to provide a complete statistical primer for a single game — and it’s definitely not to “predict” the day’s winners or any specific performances or anything like that. Rather, the idea is to identify a game or games or I-don’t-know-what about the day in baseball that might be of interest to the curious fan.

Will this be a daily venture? Oh God, no. As a cardholding layabout, I’m expressly forbidden from putting forth the kind of effort that such an undertaking would require. But I think it’s something that might happen more than once a week. That sounds reasonable for the time being.

Of course, the form could change drastically and without notice. For the time being, however, it’ll probably look a lot like this:

Rockies (Aaron Cook) at Nationals (Craig Stammen), 7:05 ET
While frequently a great pitching matchup is the main draw for a game, such is not the case here. Craig Stammen is an exercise in meh-dom. Aaron Cook is slightly more interesting — not only for his groundballing ways but for the increased whiff rate he’s posted on the early season (9.3% currently versus 5.9% career). Still, Cook is mostly a known quantity, and it’s not the most exciting quantity on the block.

So what’s there to see here?, maybe you’re asking.

Justin Maxwell, is the answer.

Maxwell turns 27 later this year, but between his five-tool profile, decent plate discipline, and injury-plagued minor league career, still has prospect status. He’s listed at 6-5/235 — which, by comparison, is an inch taller and 15 pounds heavier than the very menacing Jason Heyward. (Note: I actually don’t know whether it’s Heyward’s size or his scary robot sunglasses that makes him so frightening. I must research this further.)

In 137 career plate appearances — eight of which have come in the last four or so days — Maxwell has posted a line of .250/.336/.475, good for a 120 wRC+. That’s decent stuff, and not entirely shocking given his minor league numbers.

All in all, between his athleticism and contact issues, Maxwell probably figures to become the poorest man’s Mike Cameron. It’s possible that his defense is comparable. CHONE doesn’t like him this year, pitting him below average, but Baseball America (per this year’s Prospect Handbook) rates him Maxwell as “an above-average defender in center field with excellent range and instincts.”

One problem: there’s no guarantee Maxwell’s gonna play today. He’s not in a strict platoon with Willie Harris in Washington’s wide open right field, but it’s platoon-ish. That’s fair. Maybe Ubaldo Jimenez can just find some way to throw another no-hitter.