Archive for One Night Only

Note: The title of this post makes almost no sense in the context of what follows — and, yet, it feels so right.

If you’re the sort of person who has to “work tomorrow,” then maybe tonight’s game isn’t for you.

If that’s the case, however, you might wanna ask your doctor if you’re suffering from a really serious condition known as Being a Giant Puss.

I’m just saying.

Atlanta at Arizona | Monday, June 07 | 9:40pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Braves: Derek Lowe (NERD: 5)
71.0 IP, 5.32 K/9, 3.80 BB/9, .288 BABIP, 59.1% GB, 9.8% HR/FB, 4.21 xFIP

D-Backs: Dan Haren (NERD: 10)
82.0 IP, 9.11 K/9, 1.65 BB/9, .342 BABIP, 43.9% GB, 17.0% HR/FB, 3.22 xFIP

A Question You’re Asking, Stat
Carson, fess up: did you just pick this game because it came first alphabetically?

The Answer I’m Answering
That’s ridiculous. I don’t even know the alphabet.

Watch For
• Dan Haren. Haren is of supreme interest to the baseball nerd at the moment. While posting an xFIP (3.22) completely in line with his performances of the previous two seasons, the righty currently sports his highest ERA (4.83) since 2003. If you like to watch regression in action — and because you’re a nerd, you almost definitely do like to watch regression in action — you can watch it tonight in Phoenix.
• Jason Heyward. I says to my friend Danny the other day, I says: “Danny, would you watch an Atlanta Braves game just to see Jason Heyward?” As he was currently drinking like his 17th beer, his answer was mostly a kinda frightening combination of grunts and snarls, but what I gathered from him is that, yes, he would do that kind of thing.
• Kelly Johnson. True or false: He’s better than Bad News Bear Kelly Leak. You decide, America!

Did You Know That
Dan Haren’s strikeout rate has increased literally every year he’s been in the league? Check it, 2003-10: 5.33, 6.26, 6.76, 7.10, 7.76, 8.58, 8.75, and this year’s 9.11. If my calculations are correct, Dan Haren will strike out more batters than is even possible to face in the year 2017.

Also, Did You Know That
Jason Heyward is like 60 or a hundred feet tall? At least that’s how big he looks from the comfort of my own living room.

If I Had My Druthers
• Dan Haren would strike out all 27 Braves in order.
• Jason Heyward would still somehow manage four homers.
• My wife wouldn’t make us (i.e. me and her) shop at Whole Foods all the time. (No, not relevant at all to the present game, but still a druther I’d really like to have.)

In the event that you somehow didn’t notice all the confetti and bunting left over from the big unveiling, I announced earlier this week the introduction of NERD to the public imagination.

Essentially, NERD represents an attempt to anticipate what games might be most appealing to the baseball nerd (read: you and you and you). It’s in its most infant stages right now, but is probably better than nothing at the moment. As such, it’s with zero apologies that I’ve utilized it to look at this weekend’s pitching match-ups.

Remember, NERD is graded on a 1-10 scale (for starters with 20+ IP) in terms of how appealing a pitcher is to the nerd aesthetic. For each day of the weekend, I’ve looked at three types of game: one that’s appealing by NERD’s standards (Behold), one that’s totally unappealing (Flee), and one that NERD might not quite yet be ready to assess correctly (Also Consider).

Friday, June 04
Behold: Mat Latos (7) at Roy Halladay (10), 7:05pm ET
• Halladay is one of three pitchers — alongside Cliff Lee and the very unlucky Dan Haren — currently sporting a perfect NERD score. Like Lee, Halladay is shockingly effective without throwing a ton of swing-and-miss pitches, relying instead on controlling the strike zone and getting grounders.

Flee: Joe Saunders (0) at Ian Snell (0), 10:10pm ET
• Saunders is a soft-tosser who doesn’t throw strikes. Snell has 1:1 K:BB and only 33% groundball rate. Together, they form a perfect storm of mediocrity.

Also Consider: Clay Buchholz (6) at Chris Tillman (NA), 7:05pm ET
• Tonight marks Tillman’s second ML start of the year after being recalled from Triple-A Norfolk last week. Also, the average age of tonight’s starters is a mere 23.5 years old. Also, did you know that Buchholz has posted about a 53% groundball rate in his last 150 major league innings? Why does no one tell me these things?!?

Saturday, June 05
Behold: Carlos Silva (7) at Roy Oswalt (9), 7:05pm ET
• The thing we know that NERD doesn’t (yet!) is that Houston’s offense, currently way last in batting runs, is officially a threat to the human spirit. In terms of just the pitching match-up, though, Silva versus Oswalt promises to be a strike fest. Quick thing: did you know that Oswalt is currently posting his highest K rate since 2002? Well, he is: 9.08 K/9. This, after posting right around 7 K/9 for like the last five years.

Flee: Todd Wellemeyer (0) at Paul Maholm (3), 7:05pm ET
• Ick.

Also Consider: James Shields (9) at Tommy Hunter (NA), 4:10pm ET
• Dave Cameron’s favorite for this year’s Cy is essentially — in terms of product, if not process — is essentially the right-handed version of Cliff Lee right now, absolutely filling up the strike zone while getting enough whiffs to make such an approach truly menacing. Hunter, I’m not so excited about, but he is just 23 and this is just his second ML start of the season. There’s room for curiosity there.

Sunday, June 06
Behold: Javier Vazquez (5) at Brandon Morrow (8), 1:07pm ET
• While last year’s NERD leader Vazquez has fallen on hard times, Morrow is delivering on some of his potential right now, currently behind only Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw in swinging-strike rate. And while it may surprise the frig out of Seattle fans, Morrow is actually throwing about a league-average rate of strikes (61.4%).

Flee: Matt Garza (4) at Rich Harden (0), 3:05pm ET
• Harden is currently sporting a below-average whiff rate — this after producing three consecutive years of 15%-plus in the same category. When he’s not producing swing-and-misses, Harden’s hard to watch. Garza’s mediocre NERD might surprise you, especially if you’re looking at his 3.08 ERA. But he’s basically a league-average dude right now: normal whiff rate (7.5%), normal xFIP (4.43).

Also Consider: Tim Lincecum (9, 1:35pm ET) and Ubaldo Jimenez (7, 4:10pm ET)
• Only problem is, these guys aren’t facing each other. Lincecum goes up against Ross Ohlendorf (0), who’s almost as unappealing to the nerd as possible. Rodrigo Lopez pitches for Arizona against Jimenez. The fact that Jimenez gets a 7 on the current NERD scale is proof that the system needs to incorporate Awesomeness into its criteria. Or at least fastabll velocity. One or the other.

Just kidding, it actually is about Colby Lewis. Except not entirely about Colby Lewis. Except mostly about Colby Lewis.

Chicago (NL) at Texas | Friday, May 21 | 8:05 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Cubs: Ted Lilly
31.0 IP, 4.94 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, .262 BABIP, 36.6% GB, 10.9% HR/FB, 4.70 xFIP
Projected FIP: 4.02 (FAN) 4.10 (CHONE) 4.06 (ZiPS)

Rangers: Colby Lewis
51.1 IP, 9.47 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, .261 BABIP, 36.6% GB, 8.3% HR/FB, 3.99 xFIP
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 3.99 (CHONE) 4.39 (ZiPS)

Watch For
• Colby Lewis’s slidepiece. (See below.)
• Starlin Castro. He’s just a tiny, tiny baby. The type of baby with only four strikeouts in his first 49 plate appearances.
• Geovany Soto. Specifcally, his place in the batting order. Soto’s started 32 games and has batted either seventh or eighth in 30 of those games. Also, guess what? He has a .452 OBP.
• Marlon Byrd. Somehow Byrd is third among all MLBers in WAR with a 2.2 mark.

On Colby Lewis’s Slidepiece
A couple weeks ago, Dave Allen commanded his computer brain to think about Colby Lewis’s slider. Here’s what it found out:

Compared to his previous time in the MLB, he is getting tons more swings outside the zone and swinging strikes — not surprising given his huge strikeout rate. This increase seems due, at least partially, to increased slider use. In his pre-NPB days he threw it 7% of the time, but through five starts this year he is throwing it a hair below 30% (according to the BIS classifications as well as my classifications of the pitchf/x data). By linear weights of the BIS classifications it is his nastiest pitch, already worth 5 runs above average, and I see it getting swinging strikes 20% of the time. The average slider last year got a swinging strike 13% of the time. Overall, Lewis is getting just under 12% swinging strikes compared to a league average of 8%.

Another Thing About Colby Lewis
In case you haven’t seen Matthew Carruth’s series previews over at Lookout Landing, you should know that he provides these great tables. As Carruth writes:

Basically, it lays out each pitcher’s basic repertoire, frequency and average speed and then grades it on the familiar 20-80 scouting scale. The grades are determined by league percentiles in swinging strikes (K), strike rate (BB) and ground balls (GB) for each pitch. Hopefully this should give you an easy overview of each pitcher’s strengths and weaknesses. The last row is the overall ranks for the pitcher based on all his pitches thrown.

Here’s what Colby Lewis’s repertoire looks like by that method:

Pitch 	%	Sp 	K 	BB 	GB
FB 	56% 	90 	65 	45 	20
SL 	25% 	82 	65 	70 	75
CB 	12% 	79 	40 	50 	65
CH 	7% 	85 	40 	75 	50
Overall	--	--	70	55	25

What you notice there is that (a) yes, Lewis’s slider is good, and (b) probably another ground ball or two on the fastball wouldn’t hurt. For how high he works in the zone with it, though — the fastball, that is — such a thing might not be happening, stat.

What You, the Reader, Are Saying to Me
Hey, Carson: did you ever consider for even one second in your life that maybe Colby Lewis isn’t some kind of deity?

What I Am Saying Right Back to You
Yeah, I actually did think that for a second, and it was the darkest, loneliest second of my life, you jerk nut.

If I Had My Druthers
• Colby Lewis would found a fast-food chain.
• The featured item on menu of said chain would be sliders.
• Get it? Sliders!

I don’t know what it is about envelopes, but ever since my earliest days, I’ve been pushing the hell out of them.

That trend continues today, as this electronic space serves to preview not just one game, but an entire flipping series.

Is it crazy? Yes. Is it possible? Just wait and see.

St. Louis at Pittsburgh | Friday, May 07 | 7:05 pm ET
St. Louis at Pittsburgh | Saturday, May 08 | 7:05 pm ET
St. Louis at Pittsburgh | Sunday, May 09 | 1:35 pm ET

Starting Pitchers
The careful reader will note that the following pitchers are all Cardinals. This has everything to do with the fact that the Pirate pitching staff is largely underwhelming, and — with regard to the present series, at least — of little concern to the baseballing enthusiast.

The careful reader will also note that the following pitchers are all really flipping good.

Friday: Chris Carpenter
38.0 IP, 9.24 K/9, 3.08 BB/9, .244 BABIP, 49.5% GB, 16.1% HR/FB, 3.32 xFIP
Projected FIP: 3.23 (FAN) 3.18 (CHONE) 3.53 (ZiPS)

Saturday: Jaime Garcia
32.0 IP, 6.47 K/9, 3.66 BB/9, .220 BABIP, 65.1% GB, 0.0% HR/FB, 3.72 xFIP
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 4.69 (CHONE) 4.59 (ZiPS)

Sunday: Adam Wainwright
46.0 IP, 7.04 K/9, 1.96 BB/9, .236 BABIP, 50.0% GB, 2.6% HR/FB, 3.51 xFIP
Projected FIP: 3.31 (FAN) 3.40 (CHONE) 3.16 (ZiPS)

On The Pirates Offense
Wednesday night, at an unspecified Portland-area watering hole, I found myself watching the Chicago/Pittsburgh contest at PNC Park. As I tuned in, the game was just entering the bottom of third, and, almost without pause, I was treated to these four at-bats in succession (play-by-play courtesy of FanGraphs play log):

Andy LaRoche doubled to left (Grounder).
Andrew McCutchen doubled to left (Fliner (Liner)). Andy LaRoche scored.
Garrett Jones doubled to right (Fliner (Liner)). Andrew McCutchen scored.
Ryan Doumit lined out to third (Liner).

LaRoche’s hit was — technically, I guess — a grounder, but it was well struck and right down the third base line: a no-doubt double, in other words. McCutchen’s double was to left-center, almost netted him a triple, and looked exactly like this. Jones’s double was even more forcefully struck, this time down the right field line (as you can see right here). Finally, though it didn’t get him aboard, Ryan Doumit’s liner to Aramis Ramirez was hit a ton, too.

It was a striking sequence, this. All four Pirates absolutely sqaured up balls against a pitcher who, despite some minor struggles in his return from injury, is generally recognized as one of the National League’s more capable specimens.

Thus it was, under the influence of this hitting display, that I noted the score of last night’s game between Chicago and Pittsburgh: 11-1 in favor of the home team. Randy Wells entered Thursday night’s game ranked eighth out of 115 qualified Major League pitchers with an xFIP of 3.19. After the first inning, he sported a decidedly higher mark.

If you tuned in late, here’s what you missed in the bottom of said inning (most of which you can watch here):

Akinori Iwamura walked.
Andy LaRoche walked. Akinori Iwamura advanced to 2B.
Andrew McCutchen singled to left (Grounder). Akinori Iwamura scored. Andy LaRoche advanced to 2B.
Garrett Jones singled to left (Fliner (Liner)). Andy LaRoche scored. Andrew McCutchen advanced to 2B.
Ryan Doumit doubled to right (Fliner (Liner)). Andrew McCutchen scored. Garrett Jones advanced to 3B.
Ryan Church struck out swinging.
Lastings Milledge doubled to left (Fliner (Liner)). Garrett Jones scored. Ryan Doumit scored.
Ronny Cedeno flied out to left (Fly).
Brian Burres grounded out to second (Grounder).

Pittsburgh’s win expectancy at beginning of the inning was 54.8%. By the end of it, that number had climbed to 89.7%. Nor did it drop below 89.0% at any point afterwards, as you can see by this invincible graph:

That’s a pretty good way to win a baseball game.

Very clearly, the Pirates aren’t the top of the offensive heap. In fact, they’re 25th in park-adjusted runs scored compared to average, with a mark of -15.8. But there are some signs of life here that oughtn’t be ignored. Second baseman Aki Iwamura has posted a slash line of only .202/.303/.298 — but with a BABIP (.233) over a hundred points below his career mark. Normalize his batted-ball figure, and he’s wOBA-ing around .365 or so. Garret Jones has also been a victim of batted-ball luck (.250 BABIP), but has managed to post a 119 wRC+, anyway. Andy LaRoche appears to be delivering on his early promise, showing the same plate discipline as always, but with an elevated line-drive rate that could be the product of physical maturity. Ryan Doumit is on pace for another above-average offensive season from the catcher spot. And Andrew McCutchen — well Andrew McCutchen is actually just good.

Even Jeff Clement, Lastings Milledge, Steve Pearce: none of them are world-beaters, but each affordable and all with the pedigree to suggest something like upside.

If I Had My Druthers
• Andy LaRoche would finally climb out of the shadow of his older brother, Arizona first baseman Adam.
• Bobby Crosby would finally climb out of the shadow of his older brother, American comedian Bill.

Cinco de Mayo is Spanish for “the Fifth of Mayo.”

Feel free to use that tidbit of information early and often.

Texas at Oakland | Wednesday, May 05 | 3:35 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Rangers: Colby Lewis (R)
32.2 IP, 10.47 K/9, 3.58 BB/9, .280 BABIP, 38.8% GB, 5.7% HR/FB, 3.61 xFIP
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 3.99 (CHONE) 4.39 (ZiPS)

A’s: Trevor Cahill (R)
178.2 IP, 4.53 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, .276 BABIP, 47.8% GB, 13.2% HR/FB, 4.92 xFIP (2009)
Projected FIP: 4.56 (FAN) 5.08 (CHONE) 5.05 (ZiPS)

This Is Not About Colby Lewis
Even though it’ll probably seem like it most of the time, Colby Lewis will not, in fact, be the only guy on the field this afternoon in Oakland. In fact, there are a couple-few players who — despite lacking Lewis’s direct connection to the godhead — have actually managed to distinguish themselves as worthy of the baseballing enthusiast’s attention.

Not the least of these players is Oakland starter Trevor Cahill. Cahill — along with other young Oaklanders Brett Anderson and Andrew Bailey — made his debut last year, and was actually rated as the organization’s number-two prospect (behind Anderson) in Baseball America’s 2009 Prospect Handbook. Despite having thrown only 37 innings of ball above Double-A before 2009, Cahill’s excellent K rate (9.96 K/9) over that time — combined with Oakland’s youth movement — created a space for him in Oakland’s rotation. Back in December, our man Dave Goleblahblah justified the confidence the A’s would’ve had in his success:

Sure, Cahill’s command sometimes abandoned him. But he drew as much praise as any pitching prospect in the game. And why not? In addition to all of those Ks, Cahill was a groundball machine. He burned worms at a 56.4% clip in 2007 and kept the ball on the ground 61.5% of the time in 2008. Generally, strikeouts and groundballs have an inverse relationship: one comes at the expense of the other. It’s rare to find a young pitcher so adept at making batters whiff or chop the ball into the dirt when they do manage to make contact.

In light of those expectations, it’s fair to qualify last year as a bit of a disappointment. After having missed a lot of bats at lower levels, Cahill posted a mark of only 4.53 K/9 in 2009. Nor was his walk rate of 3.63 BB/9 anywhere near low enough to let him be effective in the mold of Carlos Silva circa 2004-2008, or even Rick Porcello of last year.

The question for this start — for Cahill, in general — is whether he’s able to get some breathing room between his strikeout and walk numbers. Perhaps the answer is in altering his repertoire. As resident cyborg Dave Allen wrote last year:

Like many ground ball pitchers Cahill throws a lot of fastballs (almost 70% of the time), and the problem is he has not been very good at getting them in the zone. His fastballs are in the permissive pfx zone 50% of the time, compared to the 55% for the average fastball. This is one of those things that seems like a small difference but is not. The variation is fastball zone percentage is narrow, so 50% is quite low, and over the course of the whole year those extra balls really pile up.

A little snooping over at Texas Leaguers reveals that, last year, Cahill got swing-and-misses on 5.5% of his two-seam and only 3.3% of his four-seam fastballs. Though his changepiece generated whiffs 13.5% of the time, he threw it too rarely to bring his overall whiff rate to league average.

What’s peculiar is the almost complete absence of Cahill’s knuckle-curve, a pitch Baseball America described in 2009 as “nasty… a swing-and-miss pitch with hard downward movement.” Texas Leaguers shows a curve, but the whiff rates are modest, and the drop, though fine, isn’t otherworldly.

Okay, It’s a Little Bit About Colby lewis
The reader might not have access to ESPN Insider, which means the reader might not know that ESPN’s Jason Grey — while less immodest in his prose stylings on the matter — is also smitten with Mr. Colby Lewis. Gray has been riding the CPL train since at least March 9th, when, after attending an Angels/Rangers spring training game, he wrote of Lewis:

He worked two innings Monday. He did allow a solo homer to Mike Napoli (a big bomb to center field on a hanging curve), but was otherwise impressive, throwing 20 of his 26 pitches for strikes, working very quickly and efficiently, and being aggressive. He reached 92 mph a few times and had very good cutting action, and also showed he could throw his fastball to both sides of the plate. He mixed in a curveball that ranged from 74-79 mph that was sharp at times, but a bit inconsistent. He also mixed in some good 82-83 mph sliders, and even ran it in the back door against a few lefty hitters. There was a lot to like, and it was hard to believe I was looking at the same pitcher I saw a few years ago. I snagged him for $4 in the AL LABR (League of Alternative Baseball Reality) auction Saturday, and was happy then to do so. I’m even happier after seeing him Monday.

One of us! One of us!

All-Joy Alert
Three All-Joyers are likely to appear in this evening’s game: Mr. Lewis, Adam Rosales, Ryan Sweeney. Other All-Joyer Kurt Suzuki, unfortunately, is injuricated.

If I Had My Druthers
• Rosales, Suzuki, and Sweeney would all somehow turn a triple play together.
• Colby Lewis would somehow turn a triple play all by himself.
• He’d also turn the beat around.

Before we delve into either the nitty or the gritty of tonight’s featured match-up, allow me to inform the reader that, had he read and obeyed this past Friday’s edition of One Night Only, he’d have been apprised of one of the killerest pitchers’ duels that is sure to occur this season. For it was this past Friday — a.k.a. CPL Fest 2010 — that Clifton Phifer Lee and Colby Phrigging Lewis pitched seven and nine innings of shutout baseball, respectively.

All of which is to say that One Night Only is here to help you. And also, Colby Lewis is a demigod.

[Note: Minor league numbers are courtesy of StatCorner. HR/BIA = Home Run per Ball in Air. MLB average for starters is 6.5%. MiLB average is I-don’t-know-what.]

Arizona at Houston | Monday, May 03 | 8:05 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
D-Backs: Cesar Valdez (R)
23.2 IP, 9.51 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, .328 BABIP, 56.2% GB, 12.0% HR/BIA, 3.75 FIP (Triple-A)
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 5.22 (CHONE) 5.36 (ZiPS)

Astros: Felipe Paulino (R)
21.2 IP, 6.23 K/9, 5.82 BB/9, .323 BABIP, 44.9% GB, 0.0% HR/FB, 5.41 xFIP
Projected FIP: 4.54 (FAN) 4.75 (CHONE) 5.00 (ZiPS)

Persons of Interest
If there’s one thing baseball nerds the world over like, it’s the rent-free paradise that is a mother’s basement. But if there’s one other thing baseball nerds like, it’s the Major League debut of an interesting prospect. In the case of tonight’s Arizona/Houston contest, the prospect in question is Mr. Cesar Valdez.

In addition to probably being the distant relative of the man who frigging invented coffee, Valdez was ranked by our man on the scene Marc Hulet as the eight-best prospect in the Arizona system. If you read Hulet’s analysis of Valdez, you read words that looked almost a hundred percent like these:

Valdez is a soft-tosser whose best pitch is a change-up. His fastball sits in the mid-to-high-80s. Even so, he’s had success in the minors, although he hit a speed bump in ‘09 at triple-A (5.18 FIP in 19 games). The right-hander began the year in double-A, where he allowed 63 hits in 64.1 innings and posted a 3.00 FIP. He has good control (2.81 BB/9 in triple-A) but his strikeout rates are modest, as he pitches to contact due to his lack of a true out-pitch. Valdez does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground and should produce a ground-ball rate around 50%. Because of his fringe-stuff, he could end up as a middle reliever.

Of course the words “ground-ball rate” alone are enough to prick up the ears of the armchair prospect maven. That said, there’s very possibly a startling development in the Cesar Valdez Story. In a recent edition of his Diamondback Notes, The Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro wrote the following:

Diamondbacks farm director Mike Berger watched Valdez pitch on April 19 and came away impressed.

“When I saw him, I saw a wipeout sinker,” Berger said. “He had plus sinker and a change-up that acted like a split. He mowed through Sacramento. That sinker had real bottom to it. He was getting lots of swings and misses.”

Valdez throws his sinker in the 89-91 mph range, up from the 86-88 mph he was throwing in the fall league.

That latter range is the one off of which Hulet was very likely working. But if Valdez really is touching 90 mph now, and if his sinker is actually functioning as a swing-and-miss pitch, then there’s the distinct possibility that Valdez could impress.

One Other Note
Cole Gillespie was recalled last week from Triple-A Reno. He’s not only another of those guys on Hulet’s Top 10 list, but he’s also a player about whom I, personally, was quite bullish last summer. (Be warned: that article is flipping long. Just go to the end to read about Gillespie.)

If I Had My Druthers
• Cesar Valdez would avoid making me look like a fool.
• Felipe Paulino would stop making me looks like a fool.
• I would stop making my own self look like a fool.

Is it possible to have too much of a kinda decent thing? This edition of One Night Only seeks to find out!

[Note: All minor league numbers are courtesy of StatCorner. HR/BIA = Home Run per Ball in Air. MLB average for starters is 6.5%. MiLB average is I-don’t-know-what.]

Arizona at Chicago (NL) | Saturday, May 01 | 1:05 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
D-Backs: Dan Haren (R)
34.0 IP, 10.06 K/9, 2.12 BB/9, .310 BABIP, 47.3% GB, 18.2% HR/FB, 2.90 xFIP
Projected FIP: 3.15 (FAN) 3.24 (CHONE) 3.17 (ZiPS)

Cubs: Carlos Silva (R)
26.0 IP, 5.19 K/9, 1.04 BB/9, .215 BABIP, 41.0% GB, 3.3% HR/FB, 4.10 xFIP
Projected FIP: 4.89 (FAN) 4.67 (CHONE) 4.53 (ZiPS)

Persons of Interest
Sabermetric orthodoxy suggested that, at the time of its consummation, the trade between Chicago and Seattle that sent Carlos Silva to the Cubs was a win for the Mariners and for Mariner GM Jack Zduriencik. May 1st is too early to draw any hard and fast conclusions, but if you’d asked a fair sample of non- or only semi-drunk people which player — Silva or Milton Bradley — would have the higher WAR on this date in the history of our nation, very few of them would’ve gone with “the considerably more obese one.”

And yet, here we are, with Silva having earned almost a full win above replacement for his new team. “What gives?” maybe you’re asking. Don’t worry: Dave Cameron’s all over that. A couple-few days ago, he wrote:

Silva, who throughout his entire career has struggled mightily with left-handed hitters, has held them to just three singles in 37 plate appearances in his first four starts. And all three of those singles came in his last start. In his first three appearances, he was perfect against LHBs, as they went 0 for 22 against him.

–snip–

So, naturally, the first thing I did was take a look at his pitch selection. Silva’s lived primarily off of his two-seam fastball for most of his career, which is why he’s posted such large platoon splits. The pitch works against righties, but not against lefties.

Sure enough, Silva has finally decided to abandon his fastball-only approach to pitching. He’s thrown his sinker just 56.5% of the time (compared to 83.1% last year), and has replaced with his change-up, which he’s now thrown 30.7% of the time.

If you’re like me (spiritually ambidextrous, needlessly hifalutin), one thing that appeals to you is to watch a player just after you’ve been given some razor-sharp analysis on his play. In this case, I predict that an entire nation of baseballing nerds will watch with rapt attention as Silva unleashes his changepiece all over some D-Backs*.

*Yes, this is as gross as it sounds.

All-Joy Alert
Kelly Johnson was a pre-season All-Joyer. This is me telling you, “I told you so hard.”

An Historical Fact
On roughly this date, in 1886 in the Year of Our Lord, in this same exact city, the eight-hour work day went some way to becoming a reality.

If I Had My Druthers
• The work day would only be six hours.
• Actually, make that four hours.
• Everyday would be Saturday.

Colorado at San Francisco | Sunday, May 02 | 4:05 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Rockies: Jhoulys Chacin (R)
21.3 IP, 8.86 K/9, 4.64 BB/9, .280 BABIP, 54.9% GB, 4.6% HR/BIA, 3.53 FIP (Triple-A)
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 5.02 (CHONE) 4.79 (ZiPS)

Giants: Jonathan Sanchez (L)
24.1 IP, 12.21 K/9, 4.81 BB/9, .282 BABIP, 34.6% GB, 0.0% HR/FB, 3.58 xFIP
Projected FIP: 4.02 (FAN) 4.07 (CHONE) 3.93 (ZiPS)

Persons of Interest
Tonight marks the first Major League start of the season for young righty Jhoulys Chacin, who the Rockies have chosen to take the place of the injured Jorge de la Rosa in the Colorado rotation. In terms of watchability, Chacin’s start is right up the baseball nerd alley*, on account of he’s a pitcher, he’s a prospect, and he’s making (more or less) his debut.

*Yes, this is as gross as it sounds.

What kind of prospect? Depends on who you ask. Our own Marc Hulet placed him second on the Rockies prospect list, writing:

With the ability to keep the ball on the ground and a repertoire that includes two plus pitches (fastball, change-up), Chacin should develop into a No. 3 starter at worst.

Baseball America roughly agrees, placing special emphasis on his changepiece, which the authors describe as his best pitch, and one capable of negating left-handed batters. In either case, it appears as though the challenge for Chacin is his control. Stay tuned as this situation develops!

The reader might also care to cast a gaze at the San Francisco outfield, where Andres Torres and Nate Schierholtz are getting their share of starts in center and right, respectively. Torres, in particular, presents an interesting case to the baseballing nerd. Did you know, for example, that CHONE projects Torres at 2 WAR for the season? Or, how about, did you know that said WAR are projected to come in only 107 GP and 346 PA? After you’ve wiped all the coffee off your monitor, you might consider pointing your web browser to Torres’s player page, where you’ll see that a large portion of his projection is based on the 10.0 UZR — again, in limited playing time.

None of Which Is Even to Mention
Giant starter Jonathan Sanchez and Colorado prospect Eric Young Jr. The former is among the league leaders in strikeouts; the latter has recently been called upon to replace a more-hobbled-than-usual Brad Hawpe. Reports suggest that Colorado will try to get EY more than his share of reps at the Major League level.

A Little Known Fact About Jhoulys Chacin
His first name, when spoken aloud, sounds exactly like the call of the Russet-backed Oropendola, a bird found commonly in Chacin’s native Venezuela.

If I Had My Druthers
• Andres Torres would get the start in center for San Francisco.
• Eric Young Jr. would get the start in left for Colorado.
• The dulcet tones of Jon Miller’s voice would put me into a state of blissful waking sleep.

There’s no place like home, America — especially if your home has a sweet TV in it with the Extra Innings package.

Texas at Seattle | Friday, April 30 | 10:10 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Rangers: Colby Lewis (R)
23.2 IP, 10.65 K/9, 4.56 BB/9, .317 BABIP, 36.7% GB, 8.3% HR/FB, 3.91 xFIP
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 3.99 (CHONE) 4.39 (ZiPS)

Mariners: Cliff Lee (L)
231.2 IP, 7.03 K/9, 1.67 BB/9, .326 BABIP, 41.3% GB, 6.5% HR/FB, 3.69 xFIP (2009)
Projected FIP: 3.16 (FAN) 3.43 (CHONE) 3.47 (ZiPS)

Persons of Interest
For the majority of tonight’s game, the Safeco Field mound will be occupied by a POI (that’s Person of Interest, people — get with it) to the Baseballing Enthusiast. Let me count the ways.

If spilling ink were a possible thing to happen on this wild and beautiful series of tubes we call the internet, then that’s exactly what you’d say this author has done in re Colby Frigging Lewis. And while I’ve been mistaken more often for developmental psychologist Howard Gardner than I have for a real-live Baseball Talent Evaluator, I’m thinking that maybe my very emphatic support for Lewis has earned me some kind of credibility in that area.

So, that’s one thing.

Another thing is how tonight represents the first start of the season for Prize of the Offseason Cliff Lee. Our very own Dave Allen wrote the killerest article about Lee in the Mariners Annual. Rather than reproducing it here in full, allow me to summarize for you: Cliff Lee is off the hizzy.

Want something more specific? You gots it: the cool thing about Cliff Lee is his location. His change-up, almost without exception, is in the low-away quadrant of the strike zone against righties; his cutter, almost always right on a righty’s hands. If hitting is timing and pitching is messing up timing, then Cliff Lee is awesome.

Five Bizarre Connections Between Colby Lewis and Cliff Lee
Put away those Ouija boards, kids, and prepare to get your minds freaked. Behold these five bizarre connections between tonight’s starters.

1. Both pitchers have two first names.
2. Both have the initials C.P.L. (Colby Preston Lewis, Clifton Phifer Lee.)
3. Both pitchers have pitched in the East: Lee in the NL East, Lewis in the Far.
4. Owing to the fact that they’re both so nasty, neither Lewis nor Lee has ever, in fact, kissed his mother with that mouth.
5. Lewis’s secretary was named Kennedy; Lee’s, Lincoln. Don’t even look it up, it’s true. You’ve got the Cistulli Guarantee on that.

Other Players Will Be There Tonight, Too
And all of them will probably strike out.

If I Had My Druthers
• Colby Lewis would steal fire from the gods and give it to humans.
• Colby Lewis would fashion all humankind from clay.
• Colby Lewis would continue to pitch out of his mind, thus validating my continued presence on this, the internet’s clearinghouse for baseball nerdom.

Today’s edition of One Night Only brings both (a) the pain and also (b) some serious HTML action. But mostly it brings the pain.

Chicago (AL) at Texas | Wednesday, April 28 | 8:05 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
White Sox: Jake Peavy (R)
22.1 IP, 6.04 K/9, 6.04 BB/9, .324 BABIP, 33.3% GB, 10.0% HR/FB, 5.99 xFIP
Projected FIP: 3.56 (FAN) 3.83 (CHONE) 3.86 (ZiPS)

Rangers: Rich Harden (R)
17.2 IP, 10.19 K/9, 9.17 BB/9, .319 BABIP, 29.2% GB, 10.7% GB, 6.54 xFIP
Projected FIP: 3.64 (FAN) 4.08 (CHONE) 3.85 (ZiPS)

Persons of Interest
Both of tonight’s starting pitchers have begun the season poorly — and, worse yet, they both have Dave Cameron concerned.

Of Peavy, Cameron wrote on April 23rd:

He’s walked as many batters (15) as he’s struck out. His groundball rate is just 33.3%, down from his career average of 41.6 percent, but he’s not giving up more flyballs – instead, those grounders have turned into screaming line drives. Batters are making contact with 84.4 percent of the pitches he throws, and his swinging strike rate is half of what it was in his prime.

A couple-few days before that, our full-time employee wrote of Harden, under the heading “Rich Harden is not right”:

In two starts last week, Harden lasted just 9 2/3 innings, walked nine guys, hit two more, and threw a wild pitch. Command has never been his forte, but he’s now running a 9.45 BB/9 on the season. His fastball averaged just 90.6 MPH, and only 41 percent of his pitches were in the strike zone.

This version of Harden doesn’t appear to have good enough stuff to challenge hitters, and his already poor command just compounds the problem.

It’s true: Harden’s velocity is down — and not just the tiniest bit, as this graph proves incontrovertibly:

The right-most green dots are Harden’s velo from this season. Between Pitchf/x and BIS, it appears as though he’s down about 2 mph from his normal. No, that doesn’t necessarily spell disaster; some pitchers are definitely able to function at lower speeds. But a drop in velocity could also be a sign of injury or fatigue. In any case, it’s not ideal.

On the whole, this game should serve as an opportunity to gather information about two talented pitchers and their respective struggles.

Leaders of Tomorrow
You probably haven’t heard of him, on account of he’s a wicked underground prospect, but a little guy by the name of Justin Smoak was recently promoted from Triple-A Oklahoma City. Baseball America calls his power potential “plus-plus.” Marc Hulet writes that “he projects to be an above-average regular.” Leonard Maltin calls Smoak “a delightful romp” and adds that “if you see one prospect all spring, you should see Justin Smoak.”

Weird, right? That Leonard Maltin would say that about Texas Rangers prospect Justin Smoak?

Smoak is projected by CHONE to bat .244/.347/.371 at the Major League level this season, a line that reflects both his advanced plate discipline and underwhelming power numbers to date (including just 10 home runs in 464 minor league PAs last year). Still, scouts l-o-v-e him, and the K:BB ratios are favorable.

Broadcasts
The game will be broadcast by Comcast SportsNet in Chicago and Fox Sports Southwest in Metro Dallas. While I recognize that some people are amendable to the spirited commentary of Ken “The Hawk” Harrelson, I don’t count myself among this particular demographic. That said, if you’ve never heard the Hawk at work, you should watch the CSN broadcast for at least a couple of innings — if only to understand what the fuss is about.

FSSW broadcaster Josh Lewin, on the other hand, appears to be one of the good guys. Just as the season opened its doors to us, Lewin wrote an open letter to the fellers of Lone Star Ball. His basic point? “I’m sympathetic to the nerds, but I gots to make that paper.”

Yes, that’s 100%, entirely a direct quote.

If I Had My Druthers
• Colby Lewis would just get it over with, and admit to everyone that he’s the Son of Man.
• Colby Lewis would soar like an eagle — into my heart.
• Julio Borbon would find his way back from the unfortunate 11:1 K:BB with which he’s started the season — like, by drinking a tincture crafted by Colby Lewis, for example.

This is your conscience speaking. If you have plans, cancel them: there’re like a hundred sweet baseball games this weekend.

[Note: All minor league numbers are courtesy of StatCorner. HR/BIA = Home Run per Ball in Air. MLB average for starters is 6.5%. MiLB average is I-don’t-know-what.]

Toronto at Tampa Bay | Friday, April 23 | 7:10 pm ET
Jays: Brett Cecil (L)
11.0 IP, 9.00 K/9, 1.64 BB/9, .394 BABIP, 39.4% GB, 0.0% HR/BIA, 1.75 FIP (Triple-A)
Projected FIP: 4.49 (FAN) 4.67 (CHONE) 4.77 (ZiPS)

Rays: Matt Garza (R)
24.0 IP, 7.13 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, .211 BABIP, 39.3% GB, 4.0% HR/FB, 3.87 xFIP
Projected FIP: 3.87 (FAN) 4.09 (CHONE) 4.10 (ZiPS)

This’ll be Cecil’s first MLB start of the year after having been recalled earlier in the week from Triple-A Las Vegas for the injured Brian Tallet. Cecil has some impressive seasons on his minor league resume — seasons where he struck people out, didn’t walk them, and got groundballs. That’s what we in the industry call a “triple threat.”

One note about Garza: I’m just not that in to him. Is that okay to write? Looking at his Pitchf/x numbers now, I see he’s got some wiggle on his slidepiece. He always seemed more of a chucker to me. On the other hand, I’m a little bit of an idiot.

If I had my druthers, Little Mike McCoy would start at second tonight. And John Buck would hit 16 home runs. One or the other.

Saint Louis at San Francisco | Friday, April 23 | 10:15 pm ET
Cards: Jaime Garcia (L)
13.0 IP, 6.92 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, .158 BABIP, 69.7% GB, 0.0% HR/FB, 3.38 xFIP
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 4.69 (CHONE) 4.59 (ZiPS)

Gigantes: Tim Lincecum (R)
20.0 IP, 10.80 K/9, 1.35 BB/9, .270 BABIP, 49.0% GB, 5.9% HR/FB, 2.24 xFIP
Projected FIP: 2.48 (FAN) 2.72 (CHONE) 2.68 (ZiPS)

Lincecum’s starts are basically the pornography of the baseball nerd world — or, at least that’s how it felt during his most recent game, last Saturday against the Los Angeles Dodgers. It got to the point in that start — during the fourth and fifth innings, especially — where he could’ve told whichever Dodger was batting that he was about to throw his change-up, and it wouldn’t’ve mattered. Here’s how those innings went down:

Bottom 4th: LA Dodgers
– M. Kemp struck out swinging
– G. Anderson struck out swinging
– R. Belliard flied out to shallow right

Bottom 5th: LA Dodgers
– B. DeWitt singled to shallow center
– A.J. Ellis walked, B. DeWitt to second
– C. Blake hit for C. Monasterios
– C. Blake struck out swinging
– J. Carroll struck out swinging
– J. Loney grounded out to second

There are four swinging strikeouts there, and three of them (Kemp, Anderson, Carroll) came on the change. Overall, he registered eight swing-and-misses on the pitch while throwing it only 20 times. That’s 40 percent. That’s also nutso. If and when Lincecum cuts his hair, I’ll jump real hard on his bandwagon.

Of course, none of this is to overshadow what Cardinal Jaime Garcia has done over his first two starts. This author was surprised to see the frenzied heights Garcia’s groundball rate has reached over the lefty’s first two starts. Turns out, it’s not that crazy. In 2007, over 103.1 innings with Double-A Springfield, Garcia recorded a 56% GB rate. A year later, in Triple-A Memphis, he recorded a 55% GB rate in 71 innings. If he records anything like a decent strikeout-to-walk split, he’s gonna be be somebody.

If I had my druthers, Allen Craig of St. Louis and Andres Torres of San Francisco would both play tonight. Those guys are my dogggz. Yeah, that’s right: three Gs and a Z.

Fresno at Portland | Saturday, April 24 | 10:05 pm ET
Grizzlies: Madison Bumgarner (L)
13.0 IP, 6.23 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, .417 BABIP, 42.3% GB, 14.3% HR/BIA, 6.51 FIP (Triple-A)
Projected FIP: 3.92 (FAN) 4.99 (CHONE) 4.03 (ZiPS)

Beavers: Josh Geer (R)
18.0 IP, 4.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, .271 BABIP, 44.3% GB, 6.5% HR/BIA, 4.48 FIP (Triple-A)
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 4.97 (CHONE) 5.41 (ZiPS)

You’ve undoubtedly heard of Giants prospect Madison Bumgarner. If not, here’s his story in a nutshell: first, he was a sweet prospect; then, he lost like 6 MPH on his fastball; then, people were like, “OMG” and “WTF?” Anyway, he’s still only 20 and still the number two prospect on both Baseball America’s and also our own Marc Hulet’s respective prospect lists for the Giants.

The man who’s number one on each of those lists is Fresno catcher Buster Posey. A couple notes on Posey. First, he’s hitting the turkey stuffing outta the ball right now in the PCL — to the tune of .346/.443/.462 in 61 PAs. Second, Baseball America invokes the name Joe Mauer when attempting to describe the sort of player Posey is/might one day be. Third, his real name is actually Gerald Demp Posey. Neither you nor I am shocked to hear that he’s from Georgia.

If I had my druthers, Matt Antonelli — the pride of Peabody, MA — would magically return from an injury to his hamate bone (which is very clearly not even the name of a real human bone). I’d settle for a donger off the bat of Lance Zawadzki, though.

For more on the Portland Beavers and their glistening cast of characters, do consider pointing your browser to this season preview-y type thing.

Detroit at Texas | Sunday, April 25 | 3:05 pm ET
Tigers: Rick Porcello (R)
15.1 IP, 5.87 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, .398 BABIP, 57.4% GB, 5.6% HR/FB, 4.30 xFIP
Projected FIP: 4.34 (FAN) 4.91 (CHONE) 5.13 (ZiPS)

Rangers: Colby Lewis (R)
17.1 IP, 9.35 K/9, 5.19 BB/9, .280 BABIP, 40.0% GB, 4.8% HR/FB, 4.68 xFIP
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 3.99 (CHONE) 4.39 (ZiPS)

In case you didn’t notice, Colby Frigging Lewis is pitching this afternoon. Much like the great Cyclone roller coaster of Coney Island, Lewis’s early season exploits have been made of wood located in Brooklyn up and down. Impressive? The righty’s 11.4% swinging-strike rate (which would’ve placed him around the top of last year’s leaderboard in that category). Less impressive? That only about 42% of his pitches are finding the zone (while league average typically sits around 50%). Lewis’s project now is twofold: first, attack hitters more authoritatively; second, use the changepiece to control lefties.

Tonight also presents the opportunity to ogle Detroit’s pair of rookie starters, center fielder Austin Jackson and second baseman Scott Sizemore. The former has managed to slash .311/.373/.443 through his first 67 Major League PAs, although the 37.7% K rate and .500 (!) BABIP are screaming “regression to the mean” right in my ear. The latter, Sizemore, is batting a more modest .275/.362/.350. On the plus side, he’s the only Sizemore in the Majors not to’ve taken weird pictures of his naked body in a bathroom mirror.

Win some, lose some, is the message there.

Cleveland at Oakland | Sunday, April 25 | 4:05 pm ET
Indians: Justin Masterson (R)
15.0 IP, 12.00 K/9, 4.20 BB/9, .433 BABIP, 59.5% GB, 14.3% HR/FB, 2.80 xFIP
Projected FIP: 4.34 (FAN) 4.91 (CHONE) 5.13 (ZiPS)

Athletics: Gio Gonzalez (L)
15.0 IP, 9.60 K/9, 6.00 BB/9, .347 BABIP, 45.0% GB, 8.3% HR/FB, 3.99 xFIP
Projected FIP: 4.33 (FAN) 4.57 (CHONE) 4.88 (ZiPS)

Masterson enters the weekend with the third-lowest xFIP among qualified pitchers. “Qualified to do what?” maybe you’re asking. “To dominate right-handed batters,” is my answer. Another thing you might be saying is “Hey, Cistulli: small sample size much?” And to that I reply, “I’ve never heard those words in my life. The numbers tell me he’s the third best pitcher in the Majors, and I believe them without question.”

All-Joyer Alert! Three of baseball nerdom’s most exciting players — Adam Rosales, Ryan Sweeney, and Kurt Suzuki — take the field tonight. Watch as Rosales fills in admirably for the injured Mark Ellis! Watch as Sweeney attempts to defeat Colby Rasmus for the title of Most Baseball-y Looking Baseballer! Watch as Suzuki does everything just well enough not to be noticed at all!