Archive for One Night Only

Like with Transformers, there’s more than meets the eye in this edition of One Night Only.

Also like Transformers, this edition of One Night Only will someday be made into a giant Hollywood film starring Megan Fox.

(Games listed in order of likely awesomeness. NERD scores in parentheses.)

Featured Games
New York Americans (7) at Tampa Bay (10), 7:10pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Ivan Nova (7) and Matt Garza (5). Nova has impressed in limited time this season, posting a line that looks precisely like this: 24.2 IP, 6.20 K/9, 2.19 BB/9, 49.4% GB, 3.89 xFIP. Though his curve is getting all the love from our pitch-type linear weights (+1.43 per 100 thrown), it’s his change that makes for the most compelling viewing. He throws it around 87 mph, and it just disappears. I mean it: this guy’s like frigging Gob Bluth over here.
• At the team level, it’s a fact: these teams are at the top of the AL East standings. After last night’s victory, Tampa Bay now has a 0.5-game lead.
• You should take note of Joe Girardi’s bullpen management. Last night, in the bottom of the 11th inning, in a tie game, he bypassed Living Legend Mariano Rivera in favor of Merely Decent Sergio Mitre. The first batter of that inning, Fresh Faced Reid Brignac, hit a 3-2 change for a home run.

San Diego (10) at Colorado (6), 8:40pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Jon Garland (3) and Jason Hammel (7). Allow me to admit this: I didn’t know the difference between Hammel and former Rays’ teammate Jeff Niemann until maybe late June or early July of this year — i.e. when his (i.e. Hammel’s) name became a fixture atop the NERD leaderboards. In reality, he’s doing the same thing this year as last. Seriously. Here’s 2009: 176.2 IP, 6.78 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, 46.2% GB, 3.81 xFIP. Now here’s this year: 161.2 IP, 7.35 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 46.3% GB, 3.75 xFIP. I mean it: this guy’s a frigging metronome over here.
• At the team level, we have here two clubs that are trying to assassinate each other.
• You should take note of Colorado’s leadoff spot, on account of it’s been occupied by Eric Young since mid-August. There’s no guarantee he has even a league-average bat (90 wRC+ currently) or that his speed will translate into runs (16-for-21 on SB attempts, maybe slightly better than breakeven), but there’s something terribly exciting about a rookie leading off for a team that has recently — and dramatically — clawed its way back into playoff contention.

Philadelphia (4) at Florida (7), 7:10pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Cole Hamels (9) and Adalberto Mendez (N/A). Who’s Mendez? That’s the exact question I asked Michael Jong of Marlin Maniac. He said, and I quote:

Adalberto Mendez is a career minor leaguer saddled with the great burden of having a cool first name. If not cool, certainly long. He has bounced around a couple organizations due to the fact that he cannot control his pitches, with a career minor league walk rate of 10.3%. He only recently reached the Triple-A level with some semblance of permanence, and only this season has he pitched fairly well. He has fairly mundane stuff (fastball/slider mostly, as he has worked primarily out of the bullpen) and has a flyball-heavy batted ball profile. In other words, if the Marlins weren’t down their top two starters, he probably wouldn’t be making his second major league start.

Here’s Mendez’ line at Triple-A New Orleans: 71.2 IP, 9.17 K/9, 3.64 BB/9, 3.77 FIP. Also, as Jong notes, the righty’s approach is flyball heavy: Mendez has routinely posted minor league groundball rates in the mid-30% region.
• At the team level — well, I don’t know if you’d call it the team level or what, but it’s a fact, nonetheless: Marlin coach Edwin Rodriguez has batted Emilio Bonifacio leadoff for about the last week or so. One the one hand, yes, Bonifacio is currently doing this: .320/.360/.416, .357 wOBA, 124 wRC+. On the other hand, he’s currently sporting a .385 BABIP. And also, he did this exact thing last year — i.e. get lucky on balls in play — before seriously regressing and ending up with a 66 wRC+ and -0.8 WAR in 509 PAs.
• You should (continue to) take note of the Marlin outfield, which features in Mike Stanton a 20-year-old who’s currently third in the NL in ISO (among anyone with more than 300 PAs).

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

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This edition of One Night Only swears that it was only trying to help.

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

Texas (7) at Toronto (8) | 7:07pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Rangers: Colby Lewis (6)
170.2 IP, 8.70 K/9, 2.90 BB.9, .299 BABIP, 37.6% GB, 8.7% HR/FB, 3.99 xFIP

Blue Jays: Shawn Hill (N/A)
21.0 IP, 3.86 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, .218 BABIP, 4.30 FIP (Triple-A)

A Bad Thing
Even though there’s a show by that name, I don’t know for a fact that everybody loves Raymond. In fact, I seem to recall people — friends, acquaintances, I don’t know — saying explicity about how they don’t love Ray Romano and/or his comedy stylings.

That’s fine. I mean, I’m no Ray Romano apologist. He was pretty funny on Dr. Katz. But if there are people out there not loving Ray Romano — well, I guess I’m willing to accept that.

A much more sensible show — or so I would have thought — would be one called Everybody Loves Colby Lewis. Because, look, the guy was a prospect, and then he wasn’t one, and then he pitched awesome in Japan, and then he started pitching awesome in America. The only reasonable reaction to that whole scenario is, “I love it.”

But a couple starts ago — literally, the first start all year in which he’d conceded more than five runs — Texas fans started not-loving Lewis in an audible way as he was lifted in the sixth inning of an 8-2 loss versus Oakland. These people booed Colby Lewis, is what I’m trying to say.

Lewis wasn’t so happy about it, as he noted via ESPN:

“I thought we had better fans than that,’’ Lewis said. “I mean, it’s the first time I’ve given up more than five runs. I walk a guy, and now they boo me?

“It was disappointing,’’ he said.

Let’s assume for a second that you care what I think about this. This is what I’d say if that were the case:

I can’t even make clear the degree to which I’m in the pro-Lewis camp on this issue. With the exception of C.J. Wilson (3.60 FIP, 3.8 WAR), Lewis has been the team’s most valuable pitcher (3.69, 3.5). Also, he’s only making $1.75 million this year — i.e. less than Scott Feldman and Darren Oliver and Frank Francisco and some of the team’s more recent acquisitions, too. Also, his skin emanates a beautiful golden light to which certain young-ish sportswriters are drawn like moths.

Another Bad Thing
Listen, America, I don’t mean to turn your frown into an even harder frown, but another bad thing happened to Colby Lewis. In his most recent start — this time at Minnesota — he gave up 9 R (all earned) in just 3.2 IP. And he had only 2 K in 22 TBF. And he also had 2 BB.

On the slightly brighter side, it’s possible that he was unluckly. Like, he gave up 6 H on 15 BIP. And he also conceded 2 HR on only 7 FB.

The Bottom Line
Ask not what your Colby Lewis can do for you; ask what you can do for your Colby Lewis.

Additionally
Shawn Hill is pitching today. If the name sounds familiar, it’s because he had a nice (if brief) 2007, during which he posted this line for the Nationals: 97.1 IP, 6.01 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 54.7% GB, 4.02 xFIP. His career since then is best described as a “cavalcade of injuries.”

Said cavalcade ended in Tommy John surgery a little over a year ago. Hill was then signed to a minor league deal by Toronto in January. He’s made 10 or so minor league starts and now, tonight, just miles from his hometown of Mississauga, makes his triumphant return to major league baseball.

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The editors of FanGraphs invite you to put the following in your pipe and smoke it.

Or just read it with your eyes. You choose.

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

Friday, August 13
Milwaukee (Yovani Gallardo, 9) at Colorado (Jorge de la Rosa, 9) | 9:10pm ET
• Casey McGehee entered Wednesday’s game versus Arizona batting .272. Entering play today, that number’s risen to .285 — mostly on account of he’s gone 9 for his last frigging 9. “But, Cistulli,” maybe you’re saying, “didn’t you even know that batting average is so 1997?” “Well,” I reply, “it also makes up about 80% of a player’s on-base percentage, so stick it.”
• Jorge de la Rosa currently sports a 5.01 ERA, but only a 3.73 xFIP. Impress your friends and/or enemies by reciting this loudly in a public place.
• If I had my druthers: We could all impress each other without even trying.

Toronto (Marc Rzepczynski, N/A) at Los Angeles Americans (Scott Kazmir, 2) | 10:05pm ET
• Hear me now and believe me whenever you want: this game isn’t being featured because of Scott Kazmir’s sweet pitching skills. Kazmir has below-average strikeout, walk, and groundball rates. No, the real pleasure will be watching Toronto, currently the only team with a collective ISO greater than .200 (specifically, .210), take massive hacks at Kazmir’s junk*.
• Jose Bautista hit his league-leading 36th dongpiece last night. Hear him roar!
• Ah, man: I love the Rze and so can you. Like Tom Cruise in a certain 1983 cinematic masterpiece, Marc Rzepczynski has all the right moves. He doesn’t qualify for a NERD score yet, but has a 3.41 xFIP against a 7.15 ERA. And he’s only 25. And even the vowels in his name are consonants.
• Peter Bourjos! Peter Bourjos! Peter Bourjos! (Yes, this is what passes for baseball analysis these days.)

*And by “junk,” I mean his pitches, of course.

Saturday, August 14
San Diego (Mat Latos, 10) at San Francisco (Madison Bumgarner, 7) | 4:10pm ET
• Damn, Mat Latos, you’re only 23 and have one of the best xFIPs (3.56) among starting pitchers.
• Damn, Madison Bumgarner, you’re better than I thought you were going to be.
• Damn, Ryan Ludwick, who died and gave you a career 7.9 UZR/150 in right field?

Oakland (Trevor Cahill, 5) at Minnesota (Brian Duensing, 4) | 7:10pm ET
• Neither Cahill nor Duensing are real edge-of-your-seat exciting pitchers. Both are below average in terms of swinging-strike rates, and hence K/9. But they’re also pretty-really good at inducing grounders. On the season, Cahill is sporting a 56.4% groundball rate; Duensing, 52.4%. How many will they induce tonight?!? Tune in to find out!
• In case you didn’t hear, Oakland recently promoted prospect Chris Carter to the big club. I had the opportunity to see all 6’5″, 230 of Carter this spring when Triple-A Sacramento visited Portland, Ore. Here was my first thought: “I could totally take that guy.” Here was my second: “I must be pretty sauced right now.”
• If I had my druthers: I could totally take that guy.

Boston (Jon Lester, 9) at Texas (Colby Lewis, 6) | 8:05pm ET
• Lester has groundball rate of 54.3%. That’s surprising to me, and, because I’m not that special, I’m guessing it surprises you and you and you. How’s he doing it? Well, I asked the internet that question — specifically, StatCorner’s awesome scouting tool — and here’s what I found. (All pitches are graded on 20-80 scouting scale in each cat).

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
FB	58%	93	70	60	75
SI	16%	89	80	65	50
CB	14%	77	65	45	70
CH	8%	85	60	25	75
Overall	--	--	70	50	75

What we find here is that, with the exception of Lester’s sinker, he’s getting near league-best groundball rates on all his pitches. Now you know!
• Colby Lewis is dynamic. That’s it: he’s just frigging dynamic.
• If I had my druthers: Someone would design a plane or something modeled after Colby Lewis’s dynamism.

Sunday, August 15
Cleveland (Justin Masterson, 8) at Seattle (Felix Hernandez, 10) | 1:05pm ET
• Fact One: Justin Masterson has 63.4% groundball rate.
• Fact Two: The Cleveland infield has had a whole lot of Jason Donald and Asdrubal Cabrera and Mark Grudzielanek and Anderson Hernandez and Jhonny Peralta and Andy Marte up in it.
• Fact Three: Literally, all those guys have negative UZRs. Yeah, it takes some time for UZR to stabilize, but that’s a bad trend, at the very least.
• Fact Four: Justin Masterson has a .347 BABIP against.
• You fill the blanks, America.

Baltimore (Jake Arrieta, 1) at Tampa Bay (Jeremy Hellickson, N/A) | 1:40pm ET
• He’s only pitched 14 innings, so whatever, but here are the (very impressive) nerd scouting numbers for Hellickson. (Again, per StatCorner, on the 20-80 scouting scale.)

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
FB	51%	91	65	25	80
CH	27%	81	80	80	35
CB	18%	75	80	80	80
Overall	--	--	80	70	80

• Who’m I kidding? I’m just watching this so the computer-robot known as R.J. Anderson doesn’t freak out on me.
• If I had my druthers: R.J. would someday get his wish to become a real boy.

Milwaukee (Manny Parra, 7) at Colorado (Ubaldo Jimenez, 8) | 3:10pm ET
• Dear Future Self, Is Casey McGehee 18 for his last 18 now? What’s it like where you are? Do they have frozen yogurt still?
• Manny Parra is a lefty who throws 92-94 mph and has a killer split-finger pitch. He’s also someone who’s been cursed by God, as his career .352 BABIP-against confirms.
• Experiment: Sit at a sports bar and tell the dude next to you that Ubaldo Jimenez isn’t the best pitcher in the majors. Wait for his reaction.

Actually, we’re not all special: that’s tonight’s important message.

Nationals at Americans | Tuesday, July 13 | 8:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Nationals: Ubaldo Jimenez (NERD: 8)
127.0 IP, 8.01 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, .248 BABIP, 51.9% GB, 5.4% HR/FB, 3.71 xFIP

Americans: David Price (NERD: 8)
115.1 IP, 7.80 K/9, 3.36 BB/9, .276 BABIP, 47.2% GB, 7.8% HR/FB, 3.95 xFIP

A Logic Problem
The All-Star Game, as the urban youth of our country would likely say, “is what it is.” “Is what it is,” as the academics in our country would likely say, represents an instance of tautology. Therefore, it can be said that the All-Star Game is itself tautological.

Discuss.

(Seriously. Do it. Now.)

Service, With or Without a Smile
I think I’m stating the obvious when I say that we at FanGraphs view ourselves — more than baseball fans or ruthless capitalists — we view ourselves as public servants. (Indeed, no other reasonable explanation exists for Jack Moore’s decision to tweet factoids about Joe Morgan’s career, with no prompting whatsoever, at approximately 3am local time.)

To further continue this commitment to our readership, I’ve included the complete rosters for each team at the end of this post — all with links to each respective All-Star’s FanGraphs player card.

An Obligatory Comment in re Colby Lewis
Paddy McMahon of Around the Majors and Knuckle Curve Semi-Drop tweeted the following almost-true truth:

PadmanJones colby lewis is tied with the AL’s ASG starter (price) in WAR. lewis is not on the team. @cistulli mad.

I say “almost true” for this reason: I’m not mad. Rather, it’s probably something more like melancholy that I’m feeling. Colby Lewis, as is widely known, has been responsible for a very many, very intense spiritual experiences. Yet, millions will be robbed tonight of Lewis’s extraordinary mound presence and his darting slutter.

“Fie, for shame,” is the only reasonable response to that.

If I Had My Druthers
• In the midst of a high-leverage situation, American League coach Joe Girardi would come to the mound and signal for a right-handed reliever.
• Simultaneously, Colby Lewis would enter Angel Stadium, from the sky, via parachute, and land on the mound part of the field.
• Also, Lewis would breathe fire. (Note: I recognize that fire-breathing isn’t entirely related to the rest of the fantasy, but if I had my druthers, that’s what would happen.)

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For better or worse, today’s edition of One Night Only was penned by a white person.

Ya heard!

Minnesota at Toronto | Wednesday, July 7 | 7:07pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Twins: Kevin Slowey (NERD: 4)
88.2 IP, 6.39 K/9, 1.83 BB/9, .325 BABIP, 27.9% GB, 8.7% GB, 4.64 xFIP

Blue Jays: Marc Rzepczynski (Season Debut)
61.1 IP, 8.80 K/9, 4.40 BB/9, .280 BABIP, 51.2% GB, 14.9% HR/FB, 3.70 xFIP (2009)

Hot Button Topic
It’s amazing how, for all the handwringing and outrage in re the ethics of human cloning, how no one’s mentioned that the Minnesota Twins have been doing it for years. Brad Radke, Carlos Silva, every single pitcher in their current starting rotation: they’re genetically engineered not to walk batters. (Actually, come to think of it, maybe “Twins” isn’t just an allusion to regional geography, but a sly clue as to the organization’s illicit bioengineering operation.)

In any case, Kevin Slowey is very clearly a product of the Twinkers’ advanced scientific efforts. On the season, 54.1% of his pitches have been in the zone. That places him fifth overall among 109 qualified pitchers.

Quick, Get a Graphing Calculator!
And plot the following points (x, y): (2008, 36.1%), (2009, 32.0%), (2010, 27.9%). Now insert a best-fit line up in that piece.

Notice anything? Those y-coordinates are Slowey’s groundball rates. They’re going down, down, down — like, to the point where they might be negative someday.

Question: Should the Twins just play with three infielders when Slowey pitches? Like, have a first baseman, two other infielders, and then a softball-type outfield? I’m not joking a lot.

Actually, What I Wanted to Say Is
Tonight’s starter for the Blue Jays, Marc Rzepczynski, is making his season debut after missing the first three months of the season to a fractured middle finger that he sustained while attempting to field a comebacker during spring training.

You can tell from his numbers above that the Rze had a pretty excellent major league debut, inducing strikeouts and ground balls at an above-average rate, and thus leading to his sub-4.00 xFIP. The Rze profiles — at least, statistically — like a couple others guys: Jonathan Sanchez (but with more grounders), Gio Gonzalez (but with more grounders), Jorge de la Rosa, and Manny Parra.

The thing is, the Rze’s fastball velocity (88.0 mph in 2009) doesn’t even come within 2 mph of the slowest guy on that list (Sanchez, who averages about 91 mph). Moreover, his (below-average) swinging-strike rate of 7.3% suggests that his strikeout totals might have been flukish. Even so, he’s an interesting case study.

How to Pronounce Rzepczynski
Put your lips together and blow — but while you’re blowing, say the entire alphabet in Polish.

Ta-da!

If I Had My Druthers
• Either Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion would hit a Kevin Slowey fastball all the way to America.
• U.S. armed forces would shoot down said home run ball — via both air and ground fire — at the very moment it crossed into American air space.
• The entire thing would be videotaped using the same technology as in The Matrix.

Today’s edition of One Night Only is totally organic and farm-raised and all that crap.

Cleveland at Texas | Tuesday, July 6 | 8:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Indians: Justin Masterson (NERD: 8)
94.2 IP, 7.32 K/9, 3.99 BB/9, .345 BABIP, 64.2% GB, 9.8% HR/FB, 3.91 xFIP

Rangers: C.J. Wilson (NERD: 2)
102.1 IP, 6.42 K/9, 4.22 BB/9, .258 BABIP, 51.0% GB, 5.9% HR/FB, 4.64 xFIP

A Possible Comment You’re Making
Hey, chief: what’s the deal? C.J. Wilson has a crap NERD score. What’re you thinking? Why not talk about Jered Weaver (8) versus Jake Peavy (6) tonight. Or CC Sabathia (7) versus Trevor Cahill (6)?

Two or Three Comments I’m Making Right Back
1. Don’t call me “chief.”

2. Yes, it’s true: we live in a post-NERD world now. And, yes, we have to face it: things just aren’t as simple as they used to be. I get it. But we also have to make sure that — despite the fact that simply because the incredibly proprietary and deadly accurate NERD score is designed to make our lives easier — we have to make sure that we don’t stop using our mind grapes. It’s like that part in the Bible where God says, “And I giveth thee Mind Grapes, so that ye will always use them, etc., etc.” That’s a direct quote. I’m not lying.

Anyway, if you’ll recall, when Jerome Holtzman invented the Save, he was doing so merely to credit a certain breed of pitcher for their otherwise nebulous contributions to the game. What happened, as we generally know, is that coaches began to deploy relievers not according to leverage (if they ever really did in the first place, I don’ know), but according to the criteria of the save. That’s what we in the industry refer to as “totally lame-o.”

3. My point: C.J. Wilson has become a credible starting pitcher — one with a groundball rate above 50% — after relieving all of last season and for most of his career before that.

Cleveland’s Rookie Crop
If, like that great philosopher Socrates, you’re into hairless youths, then the Cleveland Indians are very probably your jam. Here’s the Cleveland lineup from last night’s game at Texas.

Michael Brantley, CF, 23
Jayson Nix, 2B, 27
Carlos Santana, C, 24
Travis Hafner, DH, 33
Austin Kearns, RF, 30
Jhonny Peralta, 3B, 28
Matt LaPorta, 1B, 25
Trevor Crowe, LF, 26
Jason Donald, SS, 25

Per Baseball Reference, the average age of a field player in the MLB this year is 29.2 years old. Cleveland’s lineup last night had an average age of 26.8 years old.

Briefly, On Carlos Santana
He’s so good. Right now, he’s slashing .297/.436/.622. That’s good for a .447 wOBA and 184 wRC+. He’s walking (19 BB) more than he strikes out (14 K). He hit a ball 444 feet last night.

Briefly, On Jayson Nix
He appears to be the new second baseman for the Indians. He hit two homers for the Tribe last night. Also, if, hypothetically speaking, you’re the sort of person who owned both Dustin Pedroia and Chase Utley on your fantasy team, Nix might not be the worst replacement in the world. He had 12 homers and 10 stolen bases for the White Sox in just half a season last year.

If I Had My Druthers
The next person to whom I mention the name Carlos Santana will not, like almost all of his predecessors, make an allusion to Black Magic Woman or sweet guitar licks or anything else like that.

Stephen Strasburg is pitching tonight (at 4:35pm ET, versus Brian Bannister and Kansas City). It goes without saying that every American boy should watch that game while holding his father’s hand. But there are other baseball games, too, and one of them — Minnesota at Milwaukee — is deserving of the baseball nerd’s attention.

For this edition of One Night Only, I contacted certain members of the nerdosphere who possess intimate knowledge of the teams participating in tonight’s game. I also contacted my friend Dan Lurie, who, despite not being a member of the nerdosphere proper, is a bang-up gentleman and Minnesota native.

Of each contributor I requested two or three bullet points in response to the following prompt:

Knowing your team the way you do, what’s something a general audience should know ahead of this contest?

Their responses (in the relevant sections below) are almost entirely verbatim, copied right from my email account to these electronic pages. Thus, if the syntax differs from one section to the other, well, you’re invited to deal with it.

Voila:

Minnesoter at Mawaukee | Wednesay, June 23 | 8:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Twins: Francisco Liriano (NERD: 10)
87.2 IP, 9.55 K/9, 2.46 BB/9, .339 BABIP, 48.7% GB, 2.7% HR/FB, 3.07 xFIP

Brewers: Manny Parra (6)
48.1 IP, 9.31 K/9, 4.10 BB/9, .362 BABIP, 49.3% GB, 10.6% HR/FB, 3.81 xFIP

From Larry Granillo, Owner-Operator of Wezen Ball
• There’s little doubt that the Brewers’ terrible pitching has done the most damage to the team’s chances this season. A close second, however, is the terrible defense. The only positions to have a positive UZR among the regulars are Carlos Gomez in CF (UZR of 0.6 in 338 innings) and Alcides Escobar at SS (1.9 in 518 innings). Jim Edmonds has a 1.3 UZR in 264 innings across all three outfield positions.
• Despite that porous defense, and despite Fielder’s career -6.4 UZR/150 at first base, the Brewers have started someone other than Prince at first only once in the last 260 or so games, and that was only last week. Also, since Prince announced his vegetarianism before the start of the 2008 season, he has hit 93 home runs, driven in 270 runs, and put up a .930 OPS. If he’s still on that diet, it hasn’t exactly sapped his strength.
• The Brewers have not won a game in which the Chorizo won the sausage race… Ok, I made that one up. But the Brewers do have an NL worst 11-19 record at home. The only team with a worse home record in baseball is the Orioles. That’s not exactly the company you want to keep

From Jack Moore, Math Snob and Owner-Operator of Disciples of Uecker
• Parra’s [been] awesome [in his] last three starts, as we talked about in the pod. [The pod, that is, which I am almostly defintely editing as you read these words. Promise! – Cistulli]
• Jonathan Lucroy is a relatively exciting prospect, as he’s a solid defensive catcher, and a good contact hitter who should be a solid, above-average ML catcher.
• For all the talk about Jim Edmonds being a poor fielder, he’s hitting extremely well this year at age 39 and coming off a year away from baseball. This is the second time the Brewers have come up big on a guy who was out of baseball, after Gabe Kapler in 2008.
• John Axford is awesome and has a fantastic mustache and a 94-97 MPH fastball.

From Bryz, Owner-Operator of Off the Mark
• If you are communicating online or via text about Francisco Liriano during the game, you must call him FranKKKKie (one K for every strikeout he has recorded. If he has none, then default to Liriano). Bonus points if you do this verbally and/or can include backwards Ks.
• Prince Fielder may be a vegetarian now, but Delmon Young has been far more successful in losing weight.
• Insiders claim that Carl Pavano and John Axford have a $500 wager on who will have the better mustache by the end of the season.

From My G, Dan Lurie, Front Man of The Grapefruit League
• There’s the coming-of-age story of Delmon Young who is cooking right now (maybe because he can finally be confident that he’ll be in the lineup almost every day). Dude has been notching some clutch hits lately and seems to have cut down a bit on his wild free-swinging. He’s also much more svelte, as we’ve discussed during past viewings. [This is true. We’ve talked about this. Dan Lurie is absolutely not lying. – Cistulli]
• As for prospects, Danny Valencia has been up for a couple weeks and started 3B again Tuesday night, after Gardy got bold the past few days and had Cuddyer starting over there.
• Also, please note this ridiculous Punto t-shirt.

A Tweet from Dayn Perry
In the event that you haven’t seen the face part of John Axford yet, this tweet from Dayn Perry will give you an idea of what to expect:

John Axford looks like he should be in a Victorian stage play tying a chaste maiden to the railroad tracks.

One Other Match-Up That’ll Probably Be Pretty Great
Randy Wells (8) at Cliff Lee (10), 10:10pm ET.

If I Had My Druthers
• Manny Parra would throw off the burdensome yoke of Fortune. I mean, it’s a seriously heavy yoke that probably hurts him alot.

Tonight’s array of games might best be described as “dizzying” — or, if not “dizzying,” then “wicked dizzying.”

Seriously, the five games below (analyzed in depth via the wonder of bullet point) are only the tip of the NERD iceberg, and completely omit tonight’s highly anticipated showdown between Scott Baker and Chris Narveson. Ya heard!

(Totally infallible NERD scores in parentheses.)

Jaime Garcia (8) at Brett Cecil (7), 7:07pm ET
• Startling fact: Between them, Garcia and Cecil are younger than Jamie Moyer.
• Likely occurrence: Jose Bautista hits an a-million-foot home run.
• Word of warning: The Rogers Centre, or whatever you wanna call it, is un peu de sad and depressing — on TV, in person, whatever.

Justin Verlander (8) at Jonathon Niese (6), 7:10pm ET
• Not-that-startling-but-still-true fact: Justin Verlander throws his fastball at an average of 95.8 mph.
• Additionally: He often follows it up with a curveball best described as “stoopit.”
• In conclusion: It’s a little bit mystifying that he’s only running an 8.2% swinging-strike rate. Not that I’m complaining.

Tim Lincecum (10) at Roy Oswalt (9), 8:05pm ET
• Direct quote: “Hi, my name’s Tim Lincecum. I have kinda a dumb haircut. But also, guess what? I’m about to throw you my changeup and you’re going to (a) swing at and (b) miss it.”
• Other direct quote: “Hi, my name’s Roy Oswalt. You may have forgotten about me, on account of I play on a team that blows. But guess what? I’m averaging more strikeouts per nine innings (8.68) than I have at any other point in my career, save my very first season in the majors, 2001, when I also threw a whole bunch of relief innings.”
• Jason Castro and Chris Johnson are the closest things the Astros have to bone fide prospects. They’re also very likely to play tonight.

Jon Lester (8) at Jhoulys Chacin (7), 8:40pm ET
• Some people — including resident philosicator Matt Klaassen — have suggested that lefties deserve a velocity adjustment of sorts for NERD. Like, lefties should get 3 mph added to their fastballs, or something. In fact, Lester already has one of the league’s fastest fastpieces
• Startling fact: The Red Sox are only a game out of first place. Say wha-?
• Shocking discovery: Ryan Spilborghs is not related to a certain, incredibly famous Hollywood director.

Andy Pettitte (5) at Dan Haren (9), 9:40pm ET
• Dan Haren might be the single most interesting fantasy trade target right now, given how far his ERA (4.71) is above his xFIP (3.43). His BABIP and HR/FB are way higher than in previous years. His LOB% is way lower. Carpe the diem outta that crap, is what I’m saying.
• Cole Gillespie will probably start in left for Arizona. He’s youngish and worth a damn.
• Adam LaRoche. What? I like Adam LaRoche. So sue me. (Actually, on second thought, maybe don’t sue me. That’s not gonna work out well for anybody.)

On this Father’s Day Weekend, One Night Only wants to know: is Steve Garvey your Padre?

Friday, June 18
Behold: Gavin Floyd (NERD: 7) at Stephen Strasburg (10), 7:05pm ET
• On account of he’s as yet to top the 20 IP mark, Strasburg doesn’t show up on the proprietary NERD spreadsheet yet. But were he to, he’d probably break the frig out of it. His xFIP (1.55), swinging-strike rate (15.3%), and fastball velocity (97.8 mph) are all multiple standard deviations from the mean. And also, he’s only 21. So, boom goes that particular brand of dynamite, I guess. Nor should Gavin Floyd’s contribution to this game be overlooked entirely. Despite sporting a 5.64 ERA, his xFIP is a considerably tidier 3.99.

If You Can Handle It: Johnny Cueto (8) at Cliff Lee (10), 10:10pm ET
• Lee is one of only five pitchers — along with Josh Johnson, Francisco Liriano, Roy Halladay, and Tim Wakefield — currently sporting a perfect NERD score. He does it just by having an h-o-t xFIP and throwing strikes. Cueto gets there by a pretty different route: his age (24) and fastball velocity (93.3 mph). Cueto’s four-seamer also has a 11.8% whiff rate. Pretty good.

What to Make Of: Dontrelle Willis (0) at Armando Galarraga (3), 7:05pm ET
• To what degree does Galarraga’s very famous and mostly perfect game affect our desire to watch him after the fact? Certainly, the start right after a historical game is worth a look. But the fact remains: he’s still Armando Galarraga. He doesn’t really get swing-and-misses, he’s got a lifetime 4.78 xFIP (4.92 through 33.2 IP this year), and he not gonna throw another perfect game.

Saturday, June 19
Behold: Vicente Padilla (9) at Tim Wakefield (10), 4:10pm ET
• Padilla’s elevated score is a result of there being no point deduction for having a giant, fat head. That and he has an xFIP of 3.95 versus an ERA of 6.65. It’s also worth noting that this weekend marks Manny Ramirez‘ return to the scene of at least some of his crimes. Fun drinking game: take a shot every time Joe Buck either (a) waxes moralistic about “players these days” or (b) subtly suggests that football is better than baseball. You’re gonna get wasted, believe me!

Also Consider: Zack Greinke (7) at Kris Medlen (7), 7:10pm ET
• It’s like a Zen koan: is the pleasure of watching Zack Greinke worth the pain of watching the Kansas City offense (or defense, for that matter)? With Kris Medlen pitching, it might be. The young Atlantan has two pitches that are a joy to watch. First, there’s his two-seamer, which hella tails. Second — and perhaps most impressively — there’s his changepiece. Medlen gets whiffs on 28% of his change-ups, compared to a league-average of just 15% on the same pitch.

I Don’t Care, I’m Still Watching: Colby Lewis (5) at Brian Moehler (0)
• Colby Lewis is in my heart and he’s in my soul. Also, he’s probably gonna be my breath should I grow old. So, back off.

Sunday, June 20
Speed Round!
• This marks, I think, the fourth or fifth consecutive time that Roy Halladay and Josh Johnson have pitched on the same day. Two of those were against each other, and they were excellent games both times. Today the former faces Carl Pavano (6) at 1:35pm ET, while the latter takes on David Price (6) at 1:10pm ET. In re Tampa, do you wanna guess who’s the team-leader in OBP, or do you want me to tell you? How about you guess.

• Ian Kennedy (5) and Max Scherzer (8) were involved in a three-way over the winter. Oh snap! (Note: this bullet is brought to you by the 18- to 34-year-old male demographic.)

• More will be made of Johan Santana (4) at CC Sabathia (7) than is probably right.

• What sort of bonus does a major league debut deserve? How about the second and third starts for the same pitcher? Do we give 3, 2, and then 1 extra point? In any case, today is Brad Lincoln’s third career start. That may or may not appeal to you. Two things that are more appealing, probably, are Justin Masterson (8) and all of Pittsburgh’s youth — including the recently promoted Pedro Alvarez.

• Felipe Paulino is alternately devestating and terrible. Either way, if you like to see ball go fast, he’s your dude. He’ll be throwing fastpieces at 96 mph against C.J. Wilson &co. at 2:05pm ET.

Tonight’s main event is of the “no-brainer” variety.

In other words, you can watch it even if you don’t have a brain.

Florida at Philadelphia | Wednesay, June 09 | 7:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Marlins: Josh Johnson (NERD: 10)
77.0 IP, 9.00 K/9, 2.81 BB/9, .286 BABIP, 48.5% GB, 4.8% HR/FB, 3.25 xFIP

Phils: Roy Halladay (NERD: 10)
93.0 IP, 7.45 K/9, 1.26 BB/9, .302 BABIP, 53.4% GB, 4.3% HR/FB, 2.93 xFIP

First, It Needs to Be Said
The NERD scores you see above are slightly different than the ones I introduced to the wide readership last week. One of the biggest flaws of NERD 1.0 was the total absence of velocity as a component. In NERD 1.1 — or whatever’s the nerdiest possible name for it — I’ve added the absolute value of each pitcher’s z-score (i.e. standard deviations from the mean) for velocity. That gives a bump not only to Ubaldo Jimenez (+2.23) and Justin Verlander (+1.95), but also to Tim Wakefield (+6.10) and Jamie Moyer (+3.30). I’ll submit a recalculation, probably with some other improvements, as soon as sloth allows.

Second, It Also Needs to Be Said
There are only five pitchers (out of about 160) with perfect NERD scores at the moment: Cliff Lee, Dan Haren, Francisco Liriano, and the two guys pitching tonight. Actually, go ahead and add Stephen Strasburg to that list, just for Esses and Gees. Still, that’s not too many.

Watch For
• Roy Halladay’s Command. Is there a difference between command and control? I’m not convinced — although I’m willing to be. In any case, if there is a difference, my bet is that Halladay is likely an object lesson in such a thing. It’s not just that Halladay doesn’t walk guys — Doug Fister has about the same BB/9 — it’s that he owns the strike zone.
• Josh Johnson’s Fastball. Johnson has the fourth-fastest average fastball velocity among qualified starters. Not until I engaged upon this absurd experiment — i.e. NERD and its attendant concerns — have I truly realized how thrilling velocity is to behold. And it’s some combination of velocity and placement that gives Johnson’s fastball a 9.2% whiff rate on the season — compared to a 7% or so whiff rate across all major leaguers on same pitch.
• Mike Stanton, Part Deux. The 20-year-old outfielder made his debut for Florida yesterday. Here’s his line from Double-A Jacksonville: .311/.441/.726. So, uh, that happened.

If I Had My Druthers
• Hallday would throw his cutter to lefties a whole bunch. Halladay can throw said pitch right at the back foot of a lefty batter. Like, he threw two of them to Chase Headley in the the third inning of his last start. Headley swung and missed at both. Voila: