Archive for Phillies

In Game 3 of the division series, the oft-frustrating Dave Bush shut down the powerful Phillies offense to bring the Brewers-Phillies series to 2-1. Yesterday, another unlikely “hero” emerged in the form of Joe Blanton, who managed to walk nobody and fan seven hitters, allowing just one run over 6+ innings. The Phillies won the series, their first playoff series win since 1993, and advanced to the NLCS to take on the Dodgers. The Torre Gang swept the Cubs in their division series, thanks to solid pitching and timely hitting with two outs. This sets up quite the interesting matchup given that the two teams played each other eight times after Manny Ramirez was acquired, with the home team sweeping a four-game set each time.

The Dodgers did not have Rafael Furcal in either series, but since both offenses are impressive, this will likely come down to which starting pitchers can truly perform well enough to not only shut down the opposing offense but also limit the bullpen usage. Not that either bullpen is bad, but I am sure fans have more confidence in their starters facing tough hitters in crucial situations than, say, Ryan Madson or Cory Wade, regardless of how effective each has been. Let’s take a look at the potential rotations for both teams, using their regular season statistics:

Phillies
Cole Hamels: 3.09 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 76.0% LOB, 3.70 K/BB, 2.83 WPA/LI
Brett Myers: 4.55 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 72.6% LOB, 2.51 K/BB, -0.40 WPA/LI
Jamie Moyer: 3.71 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, 76.6% LOB, 1.98 K/BB, 1.01 WPA/LI
Joe Blanton: 4.20 ERA, 5.03 FIP, 1.37 WHIP, 74.4% LOB, 1.58 K/BB, -0.07 WPA/LI

Blanton’s stats are strictly in a Phillies uniform. Brett Myers is a much better pitcherthan his ERA, FIP, and WPA/LI would indicate, and since returning to the majors at the end of July, has been fantastic in all but two starts. Unfortunately for the Phillies, those starts were his final two of the regular season. Fortunately, however, he rebounded quite nicely and tossed a gem against the Brewers in the division series. Moyer was not very accurate in Game 3, and was squeezed a bit by the home plate umpire, so he is the wild card of the Phillies rotation.

If he is getting calls and pitching in and out like he did during the regular season, he will be very tough. If, however, he struggles with control and is not getting calls, there honestly is no point in keeping him in the game. 82-mph fastballs might be tough when the ump is generous with the strike zone, but as he has to adjust to a tighter zone, they become very hittable. Quick sidenote: all four of these guys have 10-letters in their names.

Dodgers
Derek Lowe: 3.24 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 70.8% LOB, 3.27 K/BB, 2.61 WPA/LI
Chad Billingsley: 3.14 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, 78% LOB, 2.51 K/BB, 0.91 WPA/LI
Hiroki Kuroda: 3.73 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 68.5% LOB, 2.76 K/BB, 0.62 WPA/LI
Clayton Kershaw: 4.26 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 1.50 WHIP, 75.7% LOB, 1.92 K/BB, -0.61 WPA/LI

Derek Lowe had an outstanding season and is going to land a hefty contract this off-season. His ability to strike batters out, keep balls in play on the ground, and limit his walks deemed him over two and a half wins better than an average pitcher this year. If you are unsure just how good that is, look at Cole Hamels‘ season, a 2.83 WPA/LI, and it should become clear how good Lowe’s season really turned out. Lowe is always tough on the Phillies lineup, primarily due to their reliance on the longball for runs. They will need to steal bases and be more patient with him, rather than attempt to launch everything in orbit.

Billingsley is very interesting because his season is pretty much what fans in Philadelphia hoped for from Brett Myers. Both are power-pitchers with nasty breaking pitches. They also both had nearly identical K/BB ratios and WHIPs this season. Whether or not it speaks volumes to Lowe’s effectiveness against the team or Billingsley’s repertoire—if there is anything the Phillies offense does well it is hit 93+ mph fastballs—and lack of experience, the word around Philadelphia is that Billingsley should be a much easier game than Lowe. I would highly doubt either game will be easy, but Myers-Billingsley is very intriguing because both pitchers essentially rely on the same ingredients to concoct their outs-recipe.

Kuroda won’t win the rookie of the year award but he should merit some love in that regard. Despite a well below average strand rate of 68.5%, Hiroki produced just a 3.73 ERA. His controllable skills were even better, earning him a 3.59 FIP. The fourth spot in their rotation will likely go to Clayton Kershaw, as he is a lefty while the other three are righties. Torre seems enamored with using Greg Maddux out of the bullpen, but I would not be surprised if Maddux gets the call at some point in this series.

This has all the makings of a very fun series, with top-notch pitching, impressive starting rotations, and both finesse and flames out of the bullpen. I firmly believe that if the Dodgers had Rafael Furcal and Manny Ramirez all season long, they would have won more games than the Cubs, or at least been within striking distance. They are not the team they were in May, and are much more potent now, with a scarier 1-8 than the Phillies. If Myers is on, then both Game 1 and Game 2 will essentially see ace vs. ace. I can honestly see this going all seven games, but either team will need to fire on all cylinders to take the series, and neither can get satisfied after taking a lead.

In my very first post here at Fangraphs, back on April 14, I took a look at Phillies leftfielder Pat Burrell, and how his numbers had been very consistent over the last few years. They had also been consistently better than his reputation would suggest; his reputation was seemingly spawned from a very poor 2003 season following his 6 yr-50 mil extension. His batting average will only be high thanks to very high BABIPs, but based on his 2005-07 numbers, he was as much of a sure thing in the OBP, SLG, OPS, and BB department as you can find. He might not have been atop the leaderboards for each of these metrics, but you knew exactly the type of production he would provide. And, to top it off, he cut back on his strikeouts.

He started out scorchingly hot, hitting 8 home runs with a 1.126 OPS in 28 April games, before cooling in May. June and July saw “the bat” range from .956-.973 in OPS, before his much documented slide in August and September. Even when he struggled, however, he seemed capable of stepping up in crunchtime, and his 1.15 clutch score, ninth highest in baseball this year, seems to agree. On the whole, Pat hit .250/.367/.507 this year, an .875 OPS, with 33 doubles, 33 home runs, and 102 walks. Using win based metrics, he was worth about 2.5 wins above an average hitter via WPA/LI, and his 3.78 WPA ranked 12th in the sport.

As I did back in April, let’s compare his last few seasons:

2005: .389 OBP, .504 SLG, 27 2B, 32 HR, 99 BB
2006: .388 OBP, .502 SLG, 24 2B, 29 HR, 98 BB
2007: .400 OBP, .502 SLG, 26 2B, 30 HR, 114 BB
2008: .367 OBP, .507 SLG, 33 2B, 33 HR, 102 BB

His OBP was down from the previous three years but his SLG outranked his marks in 2005-07, even if by the slightest of margins. His home runs and doubles increased, evidenced by his .257 ISO, his highest in this span. Pat’s BABIP, which went from .341 to .298 to .283 from 2005-07, fell to .275 this year. The Phillies won the NL East for the second straight season, thanks in part to his hot early season performance, which made up for the slow start of Ryan Howard. Howard returned the favor over the last month of the season, but if the Phillies want to avoid a repeat of last year’s division series, both sluggers will need to be at the top of their games.

Pat will be a free agent at the end of this season, and while he has expressed a strong desire to remain in Philadelphia, it just does not seem like a viable option. His fielding has deteriorated to the point that some teams in the senior circuit may seriously shy away from him. It would appear that he would fit best in the American League, where he could work as a designated hitter, but we will have to wait and see. He has been one of the top offensive leftfielders over the last four years and it is a shame that so many in Philadelphia could not get over his very poor 2003 campaign. Burrell is not a hall of famer, and he has never even been named to the all star team, but there are many teams out there, including the Phillies, that could continue to benefit from his bat for the next few years.

Three games remain for both the Phillies and Mets. The Phillies currently hold a one game lead in the NL East, and the Mets are deadlocked with the Brewers atop the Wild Card standings. The Mets have not blown a 7.5 game lead like last year, but the similarities to last year at this same time are pretty striking. Entering the final series in 2007, the Phillies and Mets were tied, and were set to host the Nationals and Marlins at home, respectively. In the first game, Cole Hamels looked dominant, striking out thirteen Nationals en route to a 6-0 win. Up north, Oliver Perez fell to Byung-Hyun Kim, 7-4, giving the Phillies a one game lead.

The next day, John Maine had a Hamels-like performance as the Mets beat up on the Marlins, 13-0. The Phillies were not as lucky, and why should they have been, with Adam Eaton on the mound? Why Eaton was pitching on such an important day will forever escape me and the multitude of Phillies fans. Anyways, they lost 4-2, once again bringing the division to a tie. On the final Sunday, I will never forget watching in shock (and glee) as Tom Glavine imploded and the Marlins erupted for seven runs in the first inning. Ramon Castro came a few inches short of a grand slam to make the score 7-5, and the Mets were down and out. Jamie Moyer, meanwhile, looked brilliant for the Phillies, as they clinched the division with a 6-1 victory.

Weather permitting, the Phillies will host the Nationals for three this weekend, while the Marlins visit Shea Stadium. Below are the tentative matchups:

Phillies vs. Nationals
Friday: Joe Blanton vs. Collin Balester
Saturday: Jamie Moyer vs. John Lannan
Sunday: Cole Hamels vs. Odalis Perez

Mets vs. Marlins
Friday: Mike Pelfrey vs. Chris Volstad
Saturday: Brandon Knight (?) vs. Ricky Nolasco
Sunday: Johan Santana vs. Scott Olsen

The question mark is not meant to serve as an insult towards Knight but rather it points towards the fact that the Mets seemingly have not decided who will pitch Saturday. The New York announcers speculated Knight would toe the rubber tomorrow and he very well might. Should the Phillies or Mets clinch prior to the final game, Hamels and Santana will likely be given the day off in order to pitch in the first game of a playoff series. With the way the forecast looks this weekend, these final games may be Monday or Tuesday. The circumstances of this season’s division race is different than last year, but just like then, both teams will have to stave off potential spoilers to earn their way into October baseball.

While we have discussed here how solid or awful performance very early in the season can “make or break” the reputation of a player for that given season, so too can similar performance at the end of the season. Most don’t remember that Carlos Delgado stunk early on, but since they cannot remember exactly when he started performing well, feel it has been for a very long time, maybe all year. A player in a somewhat similar situation is Ryan Howard. Howard, the Phillies first baseman and former NL MVP, got off to an extremely slow start, but has been so good recently that he is now creeping his way into award discussions.

Over the last 30 days, Howard is second in baseball with a 1.41 WPA/LI, leads baseball with both 11 home runs and 29 RBI, and has added 10 doubles as well. While RBIs are not the greatest evaluative tool, they are gospel to the mainstream, and he is not disappointing in that area. In this span, he has hit .291/.381/.709, a 1.090 OPS.

His overall WPA/LI is just 2.08, meaning that prior to this recent 30-day stretch, Howard had gone the whole season being no more than 2/3 of a win better than an average hitter. Sure, he has 44 HR and 133 RBI, and seems to be on a streak hot enough of helping him reach 48-50 longballs, but his numbers have taken serious hits. In 2006, he posted a .425 OBP/.659 SLG. Last year, a .392 OBP/.584 SLG. This year, however, even with the home run and doubles and RBIs, his slash line included a .332 OBP/.526 SLG. His batting average over the last three years has gone from .313 to .268 to its current .244.

Since his extra-base hits appear to be the same, it seems that Howard is just plain hitting less. His BABIP helps explain that, as it ranged from .336-.363 in 2005-07, and is just .283 today. Add to that his dearth of walks this year—108 in 2006, 107 in 2007, just 74 in 2008—and it’s no wonder why his slash line has plummeted. On the season, his .858 OPS is not terrible, but many would claim his numbers are much better based on how great he looks right now, “when it matters.” This same group likely would not believe that teammate Jayson Werth, with an .881 OPS, has a higher count in the same metric.

As an analyst, it’s important to remember that Howard’s dominance in the month of September so far does not come close to telling the whole story. As a fan, however, it is very exciting for this guy to finally start performing like everyone in the Philadelphia area has wanted him to for months. If the Phillies make the playoffs this year, he is definitely going to receive MVP votes, as unjustified as it may be, but that’s how it seems to go. Perform tremendous early on and stay the course for the rest and your reputation will remain in tact or perform tremendous at season’s end and it’s all anyone will remember.

Teams either in a pennant race or that believe they are in a pennant race tend to make moves to bolster some area of their roster in which a perceived weakness exists. The Brewers landed CC Sabathia. The Cubs traded for Rich Harden. The Mets went for smaller upgrades like Luis Ayala and Fernando Tatis, believing that those underachieving would eventually regress. The Astros turned to the likes of Randy Wolf and Latroy Hawkins. While the Cardinals, as Matthew noted last week, stood pat, the Phillies attempted to fix a problem in their starting rotation by bringing in Joe Blanton.

Now, on paper, Blanton is nowhere near as impressive as Sabathia or Harden, but Phillies fans and the local media justified the trade based on the idea that Blanton is an “innings eater.” He apparently would pitch well enough to keep the team in the game, and long enough to avoid having to overuse a bullpen that the team has been reliant upon. I’m not sure exactly what eating innings means, though. If it means that Blanton would get the definition of a quality start, IE, 6 IP and 3 ER, or that he would go for 7 IP and give up 3-4 ER, that at least sounds plausible and could very well be positive for a team with an offense like the Phillies.

He has been giving up the 3-4 runs consistently, except they aren’t coming in 6-7 innings. Rather, Blanton has not exactly been eating innings in red pinstripes, as he has gone for 59.2 total innings in 11 starts, an average of just over 5 IP/GS. Entering yesterday’s action against the Brewers, just 4 of his 10 starts with the Phillies involved pitching 6 or 7 innings. Interspersed throughout were appearances of 2 IP, 5 IP, 5 IP, 5.2 IP, 4 IP, and 5 IP. When someone advertised with only one real positive trait suddenly fails to exhibit that trait, well, you can imagine what that person looks like to fans.

Most of Blanton’s issues have been chalked up as control problems, as he throws plenty of pitches, is walking more hitters, and is running deeper counts. His BB/9 in Oakland earlier on was 2.48, but it has been 4.39 while on the Phillies. His K/9 has risen to over one more batter per, as well, but not enough to counteract the increase in free passes. All told, his 4.53 ERA/5.36 FIP for the Phillies have not exactly killed them in the standings or severely hindered their playoff chances, but they have not done much to help. Yesterday, Blanton made arguably his most important start of the season, going 7 IP and giving up 3 ER to the Brewers in the first game of a doubleheader that eventually put the Phillies and Brewers into a wild card tie.

He has been just about the definition of average with the Phillies, as his partial season sports a 0.05 WPA/LI, but the fact that he was brought in to “fix” a situation makes his numbers and performance seem much worse. He has not lived up to expectations as an “innings eater” consistently and is nothing more than a fourth starter, but he has kept Adam Eaton out of the rotation, so at least he has that. With several Phillies starters making appearances on short-rest recently, they are going to need Blanton to build upon his performance yesterday or else this will end up being a carbon copy of the 2001-2006 seasons, where the Phillies have great personnel, and plenty of talent, but end up a few games short of the promised land.

While researching for the article my brother and I are writing in this year’s THT Annual, I stumbled across an interesting tidbit regarding Pat Gillick: he loves acquiring players he formerly employed. I won’t go through the whole list now, but, with the Phillies at least, he signed or traded for Jamie Moyer, Arthur Rhodes, Greg Dobbs, Freddy Garcia, and Ryan Franklin. Another former player of his is Jayson Werth. Werth never played for Gillick’s Blue Jays, Orioles, or Mariners, but he was drafted by Gillick’s Orioles in the first round back in 1997.

It should come as no surprise, then, that when Werth was let go by the Dodgers following injury recovery, Gillick jumped up and brought him to the Phillies. He performed well in a platoon role last year and looked to possess all the raw skills that make a player successful. This year, the plan was for Werth to platoon with Geoff Jenkins in right field. Jenkins was inconsistent—or consistently below average depending on how you want to phrase it—and is now hurt, while Werth has been a rock for the Phillies. In fact, over the last fourteen days, no other hitter has contributed more wins to his team than Werth.

That’s right… over the last fourteen days, Jayson’s 1.16 WPA/LI leads all major league hitters. Mark Teixeira is in second place at 0.90, just about one quarter of a win lower. Werth’s WPA in this span ranks third in the NL and fifth in the whole sport, behind three Carlos’s (Beltran, Delgado, Pena) and Shin-Soo Choo. This impressive run is built upon a .370/.492/.804 slash line, complete with 5 home runs and 5 doubles.

All told, Werth is hiting .279/.377/.525 this year, a .902 OPS, with 21 home runs in 326 at-bats. He has turned some of his grounders into flyballs and has a 22.6% HR/FB, up from last year’s 13.3%. His 2.52 WPA/LI on the season ranks, believe it or not, 15th in the National League, ahead of Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Dan Uggla, Prince Fielder, and Adrian Gonzalez. Whether or not some of those players are having down years, the fact remains that Jayson Werth, a low risk acquisition prior to last season, is one of the main reasons the Phillies are still within striking distance of the NL East.

Following last night’s absolutely insane game between the Phillies and Mets, Ryan Howard staked claim atop the NL leaderboard with his 35th home run of the season. With a little over a month to go in the season it seems perfectly reasonable, especially given his projection, to expect six or seven more dingers, which would put him over 40 for the third straight year. This year isn’t like 2006 or 2007 for Howard, however, as once you get past the home run and RBI totals, he isn’t having anywhere near a good or great season.

In 2006, his MVP campaign, he hit .313/.425/.659. Last year, .268/.392/.584. Sure, last year was a downgrade but he still posted an OPS around the 1.000 mark and showed the ability not just to hit for power but also to work a count and get on base. This year, that slash line has plummeted to .227/.317/.477, “good” for a .794 OPS.

No, batting average does not tell the whole story, especially in the case of power hitters—the value of their hits accounts for much more than singles—but this isn’t a situation like Adam Dunn’s, where a poor BA is masking a great OBP and SLG. All three components of Howard’s slash line are at very reduced rates. There are a few major reasons for this dropoff.

His BABIP has gone from .336 to .269 since last year. His BB-rate has dropped from 16.8% to 11.4%. And lastly, he strikes out all the time and has hit balls on the ground at an alarming rate this year (43.5% compared to 31.5% last year). You might think he has actually reduced his strikeout rate, as it went from 37% to 34%, but this isn’t exactly true. Because he has walked so much less this year, he has more official at-bats, and the punchouts cover a lesser percentage of these at-bats. Just looking at a straight up K/PA, the numbers come in around 30% for both this and last year.

Howard’s current OPS is .794. Players with marks better than his: Jason Kubel, Skip Schumaker, teammate Shane Victorino, and Stephen Drew.

His WPA/LI is 0.58. Players with marks better than his: Reed Johnson, teammate Jimmy Rollins, Ray Durham, and Ramon Santiago.

There is no way you really thought Howard would find himself alongside Jason Kubel and Ramon Santiago in any leaderboard this year. In the comments section of a recent post, someone mentioned that Howard might be having the worst 40-HR season in history. I decided to check if there have been any instances in history where a player hit 40+ home runs but failed to break the .800 OPS plateau.

The answer? No. Nobody has ever hit 40+ home runs with a sub-.800 OPS. Since offense wasn’t as prevalent in some periods back in the day I adjusted this to check for OPS+. Howard’s is barely over 100 right now, so I wanted to see if anyone has ever hit 40+ home runs with an OPS+ lower than 110. The only season I got belonged to Tony Batista, in 2000. Essentially, if Howard continues to mash dingers but fail to do anything else productive, this will be the worst 40-HR season in history, as I find it highly unlikely any other 40-HR club member ever found himself alongside the likes of Ramon Santiago or Jason Kubel in offensive categories.

Back towards the end of June, when the Phillies decided to send struggling starter Brett Myers to the minor leagues, I voiced my disgruntled opinion at the way they had mishandled his situation on more than one occasion. Turning him into a reliever after just three starts last year was terrible for his long-term success and then reversing the move this year, to me at least, spelled problems from the get-go. Based on his true talent level there simply was no way he could sustain the terrible performance witnessed up to that point and, since his recall, he has been very good.

Much has been discussed about his home runs allowed, and many attempts have been made, by myself included, to determine the cause of his struggles. My looks at his Pitch F/X data showed that he was throwing with less velocity on his fastball, in poor locations, with slightly less movement in certain circumstances.

A straighter 88-89 mph fastball located right around the middle of the plate isn’t exactly going to get guys out. Additionally, Myers did not change his approach; he stuck with the approach of the 93-94 mph guy he used to be and this hurt him. The slower your velocity is, the more careful you need to be with other aspects of pitching, such as sequencing and location.

Since rejoining the big league team, from July 23 until last night, he has put up some great numbers. In 6 starts, he has gone 41.2 innings, surrendering just 30 hits while giving up 9 earned runs. On top of that, he has walked just 10 hitters to go with his 32 strikeouts. His home runs? 2 in this 41.2 inning span, compared to 24 in his previous 101.2 innings.

Here are the starts, broken down:

7/23 @ NYM: 5 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 2 K
7/29 @ Was: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
8/3 @ StL: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
8/9 vs. Pit: 7.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
8/14 @ LAD: 7 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
8/20 vs. Was: 9 IP, 9 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

Prior to July 23, he had a WPA of -2.52. Since then, he has contributed 0.933 wins in six starts, lowering his seasonal mar to -1.59. His numbers for the entire season likely won’t turn out as well as he hoped, but if he pitches like this, you would be hard pressed to show me a team that wouldn’t love his services. And, more importantly, if he can sustain some semblance of this performance for the duration of the season, he could prove to be a huge factor in helping the Phillies make the playoffs.

The Phillies fell to the Marlins last night, 8-2, dropping their lead in the NL East to just one and a half games. I missed the game due to attending a Hootie and the Blowfish concert, but upon learning the score, developed a real gut feeling that Shane Victorino was somehow involved in those two runs. You see, Victorino, otherwise known as “The Flyin’ Hawaiian,” has been on an absolute tear over the last month and yet very few have realized. Sure enough, the box score revealed that the Phillies two runs came as a result of a two-run homer off the bat of Victorino. Granted, replays showed it was likely a foul ball, but that isn’t changing the stat sheets or the fact that he has been one of baseball’s best over the last month.

Thanks to the ‘last 30 days’ feature here we can definitively check how his performance has been and gauge it relative to the rest of the league. Here are his numbers:

Last 30 Days: .347/.386/.705, 1.091 OPS, 6 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 1.30 WPA/LI

His WPA/LI ranks behind just Ryan Ludwick and Ryan Braun, meaning that Victorino has arguably been the most productive players in the NL over the last thirty days, let alone the most productive centerfielder. Additionally, his 1.091 OPS and 8 HR top all centerfielders. To add even more fuel to the fire, all of this has been built upon a .316 BABIP; while the BABIPs of other hot performers in this span are ridiculously high and unsustainable, Shane’s has been relatively normal.

The recent stretch has brought his overall seasonal line to read: .288/.351/.451, 20 2B, 11 HR, 1.20 WPA/LI, 1.00 REW. His WPA/LI ranks fourth amongst NL centerfielders behind Rick Ankiel, Nate McLouth, and Carlos Beltran; his REW comes behind just McLouth and Beltran.

As The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball as well as a few other studies have shown, hot and cold streaks have very little predictive ability, so this isn’t to say Victorino will outslug Ryan Howard from here on out. Still, he has been very productive and I would be willing to wager that the vast majority of baseball knows next to nothing about him.

Plugging him into the in-season Marcel, Shane would go .278/.343/.421 with 10 2B and 5 HR. This would bring his overall line to .284/.346/.441, with 30 2B and 16 HR. Compare then his projected 2008 finish to his 2006 and 2007 seasons:

2006: .287/.346/.414, .760 OPS, 19 2B, 6 HR
2007: .281/.347/.423, .770 OPS, 23 2B, 12 HR
2008: .284/.346/.441, .787 OPS, 30 2B, 16 HR

His BA and OBP would stay virtually the same while the value of those hits—more doubles and home runs—would increase. He may not get much better considering his age of 27 years old, but teams could do a lot worse than having a solid centerfielder with a very good arm who would top their speed charts and add a dimension of power. He may not get the publicity of Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, or Ryan Howard, but his contributions have definitely been key in getting the Phillies out of their recent funk.

Last night was one of many emotions for me, all of which happened to coincide with the Phillies-Mets game. Johan Santana took on Phillies newcomer Joe Blanton in a contest that would eventually result in a sole owner of first place for the time being. While my night got off to an exciting bang thanks to a Jayson Werth RBI single in the first inning, it quickly turned sour when the Mets tied it up and pulled ahead thanks to a blown call from the umpire two run homer from the ever-so-torrid Carlos Delgado. The deflation quickly shifted to awe as Santana once again just cruised through the high-powered offense of the Phillies. Eventually that awe turned back into some form of sadness as Ramon Castro added to the Mets’ lead, before pulling a complete 180 to elation as the Phillies scored six runs in the ninth inning once Johan was taken out.

After the game, however, the baseball fan and analyst in me angered at the audacity of some mainstream writers to suggest, in so many words, Johan doesn’t have that “it” factor anymore, or that he isn’t nearly as good and seems to be on the decline. And the major reasons for these opinions stem from last year’s 15-13 W-L record and this year’s mere 8-7. From reading some of these articles or listening to some Baseball Tonight analysts you would think that Johan would struggle to cut it as the #3 option on most teams.

Frequent Fangraphs commenter Bill Baer wrote a great piece at Crashburn Alley that echoed my feelings last night during the game, that Johan has been incredibly unlucky this year, just like Phillies ace Cole Hamels. My feeling was that if Santana’s record was 11-3 or even 10-4 that most people would feel very differently about his performance this year. But then I looked at his numbers and calculated his projection over the remainder to see what his end of season statistics might look like… and my anger that he has lost something based on his W-L shifted to surprise.

See, even though his record doesn’t do his season justice, Santana does appear to have lost some semblance of effectiveness. Entering this season his projection called for around a 3.26 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, 2.24 BB/9, 9.23 K/9, and a 4.12 K/BB. Here are his 2008 numbers, his projection over the remainder, and what his overall numbers would be should this projection hold true:

2008 to date: 3.75 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 2.47 BB/9, 7.79 K/9, 3.16 K/BB
Second Half: 3.45 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 2.41 BB/9, 8.58 K/9, 3.57 K/BB
2008 Overall: 3.64 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 2.44 BB/9, 8.08 K/9, 3.31 K/BB

If his season ends up like this, it would mark his worst K/9, BB/9, WHIP, K/BB, and BAA since becoming a full-time starter in 2004. Don’t confuse this with ineffectiveness, however, as he has been very productive this year, ranking in the NL’s top ten in several pertinent categories. As I mentioned above, if his record were 11-3 or something along those lines most of these conversations would cease to exist because most fans are usually quite content in believing a pitcher with a record that good is impervious to luck.

In his seven losses this year, Johan has pitched 45.2 innings and surrendered just 17 earned runs, good for a 3.35 ERA. That’s an extremely solid ERA for games in which he received a loss. In these same seven games, he has received only nine runs of support. Nine. That’s 1.77 RS/9 in these games. Of course he’s going to lose some of these if his team fails to score any runs. While I was shocked to see his strikeout numbers decline and baserunners increase, he is still among the elite in my eyes and the eyes of many others, I’m sure. If someone wishes to poke holes in his production this year it would make much more sense to note some of the aforementioned numbers, not to say his record is a disappointing 8-7, especially when considering how well he has pitched in some of these losses and how little support he has received.

He may not be the 2004 Johan and his true talent level may have changed a bit, but he is still a darned good pitcher.