Archive for Phillies

In case you have not yet heard, the Phillies optioned struggling starter Brett Myers to Triple-A Lehigh Valley yesterday. The move followed a very disappointing more-than-start to this season in which expectations were quite high. In light of this development I decided to take off my unbiased analyst cap and discuss this from my perspective as a Phillies fan. Quite simply, in terms as layman as layman can get, I think this is stupid. I feel the Phillies have completely mishandled Brett Myers since signing his three-year/25-million dollar deal following the 2006 season.

This wouldn’t even be the first time they have mishandled a player in the last few years either, as both Ryan Howard and Chase Utley were brought to the bigs later than they should have been. As it stands, both of these stars are currently approaching 30, rather then the perhaps 26-28 mark fans might expect given their service time. With Myers, however, it all started last year, with his shift to the bullpen. In 2005 and 2006 he posted the numbers below, more than proving he was a well above average major league starter:

2005: 3.72 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 215.1 IP, 68 BB, 208 K, 3.06 K/BB, 1.21 WHIP, .289 BABIP
2006: 3.91 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 198.0 IP, 63 BB, 189 K, 3.00 K/BB, 1.30 WHIP, .309 BABIP

He got off to a bad start last year, when, in 15.1 innings he allowed 16 earned runs to the tune of a 9.39 ERA. The strikeouts were still there at 19 but he had surrendered 5 home runs and walked 9 batters. Unfortunately, with Tom Gordon’s injury, the Phillies panicked and moved Myers to the bullpen. While there he actually performed quite well: 53.1 IP, 46 H, 17 ER, 4 HR, 18 BB, 74 K, 2.87 ERA. Despite the relative success this was a terrible move for Myers in the long term considering what he had proven himself capable of and how quickly the move was made; a drastic move like this should not be done after just three starts.

Myers then fell in love with the bullpen, where he could really let loose and throw his plus-fastball without having to pace himself. A combination of adapting to this new hard-throwing environment and perhaps being used too much resulted in an injury last May. Upon his return he continued his success and his love for the crucial moments grew, almost becoming addictive to Myers. It came as no surprise, then, that he did not welcome a move back to the rotation this season with open arms. In acquiring Brad Lidge the Phillies found a closer and could move Myers back to the rotation, where he truly belonged. Never one to shy away from his feelings he admitted how much he enjoyed the bullpen and his hesitancy to become a starter again. In fact, I can recall working in the television truck with my father during a Ricky Bottalico rehab start a while back in which Myers verbally expressed anger at Bottalico pitching the first couple of innings, delaying his (Myers) start to the game.

To show Myers how committed they were to him as a starter they even handed him the ball on opening day. He has not come close to expectations this year, posting a 5.84 ERA/5.71 FIP, 1.56 WHIP, and a league high 24 home runs surrendered. His K/BB has dropped to 2.00 as well. Plenty of us analysts have attempted to deduce the reasoning behind his struggles, finding that he has lost velocity and has struggled with location, but the Phillies are 4-13 in his starts (1-11 in his last 12) and his 3-9 W-L record is actually very indicative of his performance level so far.

The Phillies again found themselves in a Myers dilemma because he was hurting more than he was helping but another move to the bullpen could perhaps typecast him in that role. Essentially, because they miffed a decision last year, it is truly coming to haunt them this season. Perhaps a move to the minors can fix his mechanics or whatever the actual cause of his struggles is, but if Myers cannot rebound from said struggles, the blame from this Phillies fan goes towards their management for truly mishandling the situation. I personally felt the solution posed by Mitch Williams was better than a minor league demotion: lock him in a room somewhere or leave him in an empty clubhouse and just let the hot-headed guy go crazy, breaking things, and hope he gets that bulldog mentality back. The club went the other way and I am not too optimistic. I surely hope I am wrong though.

In my inaugural post here at Fangraphs, back on April 14th (seems like forever ago), I wrote about Phillies leftfielder Pat Burrell and how he had been extremely consistent in his productivity over the last few years. Despite this, his low batting averages, combined with a disastrous 2003 season have led some fans to value and appreciate his production much less than they should. Two months later, Burrell is still producing at a very high level; in fact, according to some metrics he is producing at a higher level than anyone else in the league.

Based on his win probability statistics, Burrell has a higher WPA (4.48) than anyone in the sport. Additionally, his WPA/LI of 2.94 ranks second and his clutch score of 1.29 deems him the third clutchiest player in the major leagues.

He has 18 home runs this year, putting him in a tie for sixth even though it is the third-highest raw total (ironically, the first and second highest raw total belong to, among others, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard). Last year, 51.4% of his balls in play were of the flyball variety; this year it has dipped to 42.4%. However, his HR/FB has actually risen from 16.2% to 24.0%.

Through 70 games, he has produced a .289/.433/.614 slash line, ultimately resulting in a 1.047 OPS. Compare that to his 2005-2007 numbers:

2005: .389 OBP, .504 SLG, .893 OPS
2006: .388 OBP, .502 SLG, .890 OPS
2007: .400 OBP, .502 SLG, .902 OPS
2008: .433 OBP, .614 SLG, 1.047 OPS

The numbers this year are so high they don’t even align in the above table! Okay, it’s still early and it’s doubtful he has changed his pre-season projection that much but he has definitely showed signs of improvement in recent years. This improvement is not evident anywhere moreso than his BB% and K%:

2004: 14.8 BB%, 29.0 K%
2005: 15.0 BB%, 28.5 K%
2006: 17.5 BB%, 28.4 K%
2007: 19.5 BB%, 25.4 K%
2008: 20.3 BB%, 23.2 K%

This has led to a BB/K increase from 0.51 in 2003 to 1.09 right now. Back on April 14th I called for the Phillies to sign Pat the Bat to a short extension, in large part due to his consistent production, love for the city and willingness to offer a hometown discount sorts; it is not very likely this will happen due to the financial situation/obligations of the team and the fact that Burrell has essentially become an AL-type player. If this is indeed Burrell’s last year with the Phillies, fans really need to appreciate the offense he provides so as to avoid generalizing an entire tenure—a quite productive one, might I add—based on one very poor year and a bad barometer such as batting average.

In one of my first posts here at Fangraphs I discussed some odd name similarities amongst players on the Phillies. One I did not mention was that, since 1909 there have only been two major leaguers with the last name of Durbin—JD and Chad—and both are currently on the Phillies; incidentally, they are not related either. JD is pitching in AAA this year but Chad signed a 1-yr/900k deal to pitch for the big club. Through the first two months this low-risk signing has definitely brought with it high reward.

In 23 games, Durbin has a 1.80 ERA, 3.46 FIP, and 1.20 WHIP. He has pitched in 35 innings, surrendering just 28 hits, only one of which was a home run. His walks and strikeouts are a tad suspect, 14 BB – 21 K, but opponents are hitting just .221 against him; additionally, despite a career BABIP ~.300, his current mark is .258. Not many runners have been getting on and 86.5% of those who do have been stranded.

What’s different now from a year ago? For starters, his rates of balls in play have changed. Compare his LD/GB/FB:

2007: 15.6% LD/44.0% GB/40.5% FB
2008: 21.4% LD/42.7% GB/35.9% FB

The grounders are very similar but he has traded in a reduced percentage of flyballs for an increase in line drives. A percentage of line drives like that, via the xBABIP tool of LD% + .120, should in theory produce a BABIP close to the .334 range; Durbin’s .258 is much lower. Though the xBABIP is not a good predictive tool for pitchers, mainly because the LD% is not stable, it can be effective when retrospectively analyzing a pitcher’s results. In Durbin’s case it appears he has either been lucky so far or, as The Professor at Rays Index recently hypothesized, the lower BABIP for certain pitchers could be a byproduct of enough movement to make the batters miss the sweet spot.

Durbin has increased slider usage by 12%, meaning 85% of his pitches are fastballs and sliders. As a reliever, conventional wisdom chimes in that he should be able to get away with a lesser repertoire. Whatever he’s doing is working, though, as his 10.15 BRAA ranks 7th amongst all relievers in the game, and 4th in the National League.

For most of the season all eyes directed towards the Phillies offense have been focused on Chase Utley. And why not? After all, Chase can be found in the top five or top ten in just about every offensive category in the National League. Recently, though, Utley has hit a coldspell, posting a .203/.294/.356 slash line in his last sixteen games. Luckily for the Phillies, others have stepped up and filled the void.

My brother, who covers the Phillies at Phanatic Phollow Up, wrote yesterday about how not just one but many Phillies hitters are stepping up at this juncture. In his first 19 games, Shane Victorino had a .626 OPS; in his last 19 games it has been .773, raising his season OPS to .703. Geoff Jenkins had a .237/.284/.329 slash line through 24 games; in his last 21 it has been .339/.358/.468. Even Pedro Feliz is at a .304/.333/.478 clip over his last 12 games.

Of all the players stepping up, none is more satisfying to Phillies fans than Ryan Howard. Since May 7th, Howard has played 18 games, with a .264/.321/.681 slash line, 4 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR and 18 RBI. On the season he has 14 HR, coming in just behind Lance Berkman, Dan Uggla, and teammate Utley. Howard is still striking out, 28 K in these 18 games, but the extra base hits, about half of which have been to the opposite field, are definitely a promising sign.

He puts about one-third of his flyballs into the stands and hits a lot of balls hard, as evidenced by his ~20% line drives. Despite lacking anything resembling speed, Howard has had very high BABIPs for his career; .375 in 2004, .358 in 2005, .363 in 2006, .336 in 2007. This year, however, it is only .245. This should regress to his mean as the season progresses meaning Howard could, and probably will, defy his critics by having what ends up as a good season.

The strikeouts are definitely a problem but, unlike in April, when he was just striking out, now he is striking out and hitting the ball hard, often out of the stadium.

For a few years running Phillies pitcher Brett Myers has entered the season with the “he could (insert positive breakout pitching feat)” analysis seemingly attached to his hip. Following stellar seasons in 2005 and 2006, he was moved into the closers role last year when Tom Gordon went down with an injury. As a closer he was essentially lights out, though he himself also missed time with an injury. The Brad Lidge acquisition pushed Myers back into his regular role as a starter and, suffice it to say, he has not lived up to expectations so far.

In looking at his numbers I found that he has some pretty significant splits. Below are his overall numbers on the season, followed by his splits against lefty and righty hitters:

Overall: 8 GS, 49.0 IP, 15 BB, 42 K, 5.33 ERA, 5.53 FIP, 1.47 WHIP

LHH: 87 PA, 10 BB, 21 K, .227/.314/.480
RHH: 132 PA, 5 BB, 21 K, .325/.359/.569

Righties have hit him harder and more often. Another area of significance is his Home/Away splits, where he has pitched an equal amount of times:

Home: 4 GS, 2-0, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 27 IP, 6 BB, 25 K
Away: 4 GS, 0-3, 8.18 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, 22 IP, 9 BB, 17 K

Here are his Home/Away splits against batters faced:

Home: 109 PA, 5 HR, .210/.266/.390
Away: 110 PA, 7 HR, .367/.417/.634

Myers is pitching very well at home yet struggling on the road, which defies conventional wisdom in the sense that his home park is arguably the most hitter-friendly in the entire National League. In looking at his starts on the road, though, he has pitched in Arizona, Colorado, and Cincinnati; three stadiums also known for their hitting prowess.

He has also struggled when a runner gets on first base, a problem that in part led to the minor league demotion of Dave Bush:

Nobody On: .269/.320/.538
On First: .367/.387/.767

Batters have performed better against him early in the game than later, as evidenced by the numbers against the first and second times through the batting order:

1st: .329/.373/.557
2nd: .266/.319/.469

Myers recently stated that he attributes his struggles to lost velocity on his fastball. A quick check of the wonderful data here at Fangraphs shows that, in 2005 and 2006, his fastball averaged between 91 and 93 miles per hour; it is currently averaging 89 mph. The decrease in velocity may or may not be a direct cause of his inconsistency this season, but his career splits are nowhere near as drastic in these areas as they are right now; in fact, the times through the order numbers are actually reversed in his career splits as the first time through generally struggles while the second and third time through tends to do better.

Regardless, something is going on that needs fixing, whether it be his selection or sequencing, because whatever he is currently doing has not worked. If this keeps up, he could enter next season as a disappointment rather than a potential breakout candidate.

Last season, the Phillies employed a season-long strategy in which Pat Burrell would play six or seven innings before a defensive replacement helped rest his ailing feet. Usually coming in the form of speedster Michael Bourn, the strategy often worked to perfection; a natural centerfielder, Bourn could cover more ground and get to more balls. Those against the move argued that the Phillies shaky bullpen would give up many leads; in doing so, the Phillies were likely to have Chase Utley and Ryan Howard followed by Bourn in crucial situations, rather than Burrell.

Said proponents of leaving Burrell in the game could not deny that Bourn’s defensive prowess definitely helped the Phillies. Bourn was shipped to Houston in the Brad Lidge deal and so So Taguchi (yes that was planned) signed with the team to serve a similar role.

The problem thus far has been Taguchi’s inability to field his position in replacing Burrell. Add on the facts that Burrell has been posting gaudy numbers and the Phillies bullpen is still suspect and the move does not look good. Taguchi has only recorded one error on the season but there have been three other plays he should have made and did not. That accounts for four plays in his ten leftfield replacements that were not made. The plays in question have not necessarily been terrible but ones that a fan/manager/sane person would definitely expect to be made by a defensive upgrade.

In last night’s Phillies/Mets game, Taguchi misplayed a tough fly ball in the eighth inning, poorly timing his dive/slide. The ball bounced off of the front of his glove, allowing Raul Casanova to slide safely into second. Though the play ultimately did not result in a run it definitely did nothing to ease the pressure placed on the shoulders of JC Romero, now in the midst of his second inning of work. Here’s a graph of the game:

While it is not very likely Burrell would have produced different results if still in the game, Taguchi has not done a very good job as a defensive replacement. Looking at the Phillies likely 7th-9th inning pitchers we get the following:

• 7th: JC Romero – GB% increased from 57-63 % from 2005-2007
• 8th: Tom Gordon – career GB/FB of just 1.27
• 9th: Brad Lidge – career GB of 39.6 %, career FB of 38.6 %

Since Romero is primarily a ground ball pitcher it would make more sense to let Burrell stay in the game for the seventh inning, especially if his batting position is nearby in the offensive half of the inning. If Romero stays in for the eighth inning, like last night, it would not necessarily hurt to leave Burrell in as well due to his vast offensive advantage over Taguchi. With Gordon or Lidge on the mound it would make more sense to look for a defensive replacement but preferably one that would provide a significant upgrade. Nineteen games into this season Taguchi has not lived up to expectations.

Last year, Kyle Kendrick finished fifth in NL Rookie of the Year voting, following a successul 3/5 season with the Phillies. His performance supremely aided a depleted starting rotation and he was expected to be a key cog in their plans this year. Due to his low strikeout count and high home run total, Kendrick’s 3.87 ERA translated to a 4.90 FIP. All of the projection systems pegged him to experience a severe regression in 2008 and, after his first two starts, said systems hit the nail on the head. After his first two starts, Kendrick had lasted only 7.1 IP, surrendering 12 hits and eight walks while striking out just one batter. With an ERA of 6.14, a WHIP hovering near the 3.00 mark, and a ghastly K:BB of 0.13, Kendrick seemed primed for a sophomore slump.

Prior to last night’s game against the Astros, manager Charlie Manuel told broadcaster Chris Wheeler that Kendrick had to stay out of “hafta’ counts” to be successful. Inquiring what that meant, Manuel told Wheeler that Kendrick had to avoid counts wherein he would “hafta'” throw a strike. Manuel continued to say that, because Kendrick’s stuff is not overpowering, he needed to get ahead of batters; when he got himself into counts of 2-0, 3-1, or 3-0 batters could wait and rake. Coming into this start, here are Kendrick’s numbers against in these counts:

• After 2-0: 7 PA, 1-4, 2B, 2 BB, K, SF
• After 3-1: 8 PA, 0-3, 4 BB, SF
• After 3-0: 2 PA, 0-1, BB, K

And here are his numbers when throwing a first pitch strike: 22 PA, 5-18, 3 2B, 4 BB, 4 K.

From these numbers it appears that batters did not necessarily feast on Kendrick in these counts; however, he gave up two sacrifice flies and walked seven batters, which greatly contributed to his 11 surrendered runs on the season (5 earned). Of the 44 batters he faced first pitch strikes were thrown to just 22 of them, 50 percent.

From watching the starts it was evident Kendrick either got behind batters and struggled to recover or got ahead of hitters and proceeded to nibble until he lost them. Manuel told Kendrick to attack the batters and, last night at least, he surely did. Here is last night’s breakdown of his performance:

• After 2-0: 1 PA, L-9
• After 3-1: 1 PA, K
• After 3-0: Never had a 3-0 count
• After 0-1: 17 PA, 3-17, HR, 4 K

Kendrick really changed his approach, throwing a first pitch strike to 17 batters; as mentioned before he had done this just 18 times in his prior two starts. He only found himself in “hafta’ counts” twice and neither effected him. The game graph is below and his end line looked like: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K.

He threw 68 strikes out of 96 pitches, a much higher strike percentage than his previous two starts–91 strikes and 74 balls in 165 pitches prior to last night. Ironically, he lost the game as Roy Oswalt finally regained his form. If the Phillies seriously want to contend, Kendrick will need to build on this rather than let it be a positive outlier in a mostly negative season.

Before getting into the good stuff I wanted to take a paragraph to introduce myself. My name is Eric J. Seidman and I am a baseball fanatic/statistical analyst/superfan from Philadelphia. I am extremely grateful for the opportunity to write here at Fangraphs in order to help further the tremendous work David Appelman has done. In addition to posting daily at this great site I currently write for Statistically Speaking, MLB Front Office, and occasionally The Hardball Times. I welcome all questions, comments, and/or post suggestions via e-mail and you will definitely find me hanging with Dave Cameron around the comment threads.

For my inaugural post I am going to take a look at Phillies leftfielder Pat Burrell – a guy that somehow has the ability to garner the monikers of both overrated and underrated – and why the Phillies should not even think twice about whether to re-sign him. Burrell, the former #1 pick out of Miami came up to “the show” in 2000 as a first baseman. He had played third base in college but with Scott Rolen manning the hot corner needed to learn a new position. Then, with the acquisition of Travis Lee as part of the Curt Schilling deal, Burrell was forced out of the infield entirely. Never known for his fielding prowess Burrell has not been atrocious defensively but definitely will never win any gold gloves.

Early in his career Burrell was known as nothing but a power threat: he couldn’t run, he couldn’t field, he struck out too much, and his batting average too often hovered near the .255-.260 mark. Take away a horrid 2003 season, though, and Burrell has without a doubt shown signs of improvement and consistency. His strikeouts have decreased, walks have increased, and his confidence has seemingly returned. I wrote an article a couple of months ago on Burrell showing how his BABIP, save for 2003, had historically been consistently high. On top of that, here are his OBP, SLG, and HR figures from 2005-2007:

• 2005: .389 OBP, .504 SLG, 32 HR
• 2006: .388 OBP, .502 SLG, 29 HR
• 2007: .400 OBP, .502 SLG, 30 HR

Already off to a great start Burrell has really been the glue so far holding this injury-plagued Phillies team together. As of right now Burrell ranks 1st in all of baseball in WPA/LI with a 0.98; his 0.98 is a full eighteen percent ahead of closest competitor Mark Reynolds. Burrell also ranks 1st in BRAA and REW, ahead of Joe Crede in both; in BRAA he is a full half-run ahead of Crede. Much of the talk surrounding the Phillies this season has pertained to whether or not Chase Utley would be the third straight Phillie to win the MVP award. If the season ended today, for whatever reason, Burrell would be the Phillies frontrunner.

His 6-yr/50 mil contract expires at the end of this season and Burrell has made it adamantly clear he wants to stay in Philadelphia. This raises an interesting question: Should the Phillies re-sign him? As that article states Burrell is no longer the franchise-savior and he is 31 yrs old. Being a devout Phillies fan my initial reaction is “heck yes they need to re-sign him!” On a more logical approach though, I decided to look at the 2009 Free Agent Class, via Cot’s Contracts, to see who his replacements could be should they go in a different direction. According to the site, the only left-fielders available via free agency, following this season, are:

• Moises Alou
• Garret Anderson
• Adam Dunn
• Raul Ibanez
• Jacque Jones

There are two other notables in Carl Crawford and Manny Ramirez but both have options for 2009 that I fully expect to be exercised. This means that, unless the Phillies can pull off some sort of magical trade to land Matt Holliday, there choice is going to be between Burrell and the five guys listed above. None of those five are remarkably better than Burrell. Throw in the facts that Burrell wants to stay in Philadelphia above all else, will likely give some type of hometown discount to ensure that happens, and his power hitting is perfect for a bandbox stadium and it just makes sense for the Phillies to get moving on an extension.