In an effort to sure up their interior defense, the St. Louis Cardinals agreed to a trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers, bringing Rafael Furcal back east in exchange for Double-A outfielder Alex Castellanos. The trade was first reported last night, but could not be made official until Furcal – a 10/5 player – waived his no-trade clause to complete the transaction.
At 47-43, the Pittsburgh Pirates sit just one game back in the NL Central standings. The club has a winning record after the All-Star break for the first time since Sid Bream slid and Barry Bonds bolted. And for the first time since the 1997 “Freak Show” edition of the club, whose entire payroll was less than what Albert Belle made that year, the Bucs will play pennant-altering games in the second half. The fans are taking notice: attendance is up by 3,000-4,000 per game at PNC Park, and local TV ratings have increased by a third.
But there’s one major weakness that could turn the Pirates’ resurgent season sour: the offense. Pittsburgh ranks 11th in the NL in on-base percentage, 14th in slugging and 12th in runs scored. Outside of MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen, no current starter has been comfortably above-average in the batter’s box. It’s going to be hard to keep up with the Cardinals and Brewers with such a tepid lineup.
When the Dodgers hired Joe Torre this offseason they envisioned a manager whose calm demeanor could offer stability to a rumored dissentious clubhouse. Regardless of whether or not this worked, the team was 14-13 through the first month and sat five games over .500 at 19-14 on May 6th. Unfortunately, that May 6th victory came without shortstop Rafael Furcal who had been, by all accounts, their best player to date. I discussed Furcal’s numbers both here and at Baseball Prospectus as he got off to an absolutely scorching start.
When he went down with injury, here is what the Dodgers lost:
154 PA, 49-134, 12 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 11.2 K%, .366/.448/.597, 1.045 OPS
The injury quickly worsened and, following a few more setbacks, it appears that Furcal will miss the rest of the season. Now, losing a player to injury is generally only as bad as the performance level(s) of those replacing him; think Lou Gehrig for Wally Pipp, or, in football, Brady for Bledsoe. Unfortunately for Dodgers fans the inverse has happened with Furcal.
Since he went down the others occupying his position have produced the following:
218 PA, 33-199, 6 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 19.1 K%, .166/.317/.231, .548 OPS
Looking at most of these numbers it seems that his replacements have combined to produce at around half his level. Filling in the majority of the time has been the triumvirate of Chin-Lung Hu, Luis Maza, and Angel Berroa. More recently it has been Nomar Garciaparra, a former all-star shortstop, though the jury is still out on whether he can come anywhere near Furcal’s early season production. Granted, Furcal wasn’t very likely to sustain those numbers all season—a .386 BABIP compared to his career rate a bit over .300 entering this year—but that isn’t to say his performance would regress to the poor numbers above.
With the trade deadline fast approaching it might be wise for the Colletti gang to look into a serious upgrade at shortstop—barring an offensive surge from Nomar—considering they are currently only one game behind the first place Diamondbacks despite a record two games under .500.
With the hot starts of Chase Utley, Derrek Lee, and even Nate McLouth, Dodgers shortstop Rafael Furcal has posted tremendous numbers seemingly under the radar. Entering last night, Furcal had the 8th best OPS, 4th best OBP, and ranked behind just Utley and Chipper Jones in Runs Created. Even though we have only played one month, Furcal currently sports a slash line of .369/.453/.585, and has been a major force behind the Dodgers current surge.
What initially strikes me as odd is how he has virtually posted the same LD/GB/FB percentages as last year. In 2007 it was 18.7/49.7/31.6; this year it is currently 18.5/50.9/30.6. Based on his frequency of line drives his xBABIP is around the .300-.310 mark. While it met expectations at .298 last year, it is almost one-hundred points higher so far at .396.
Though his strikeout rate has stayed the same he is walking over four percent more often. In turn, he is seeing 3.95 pitches per plate appearance, more than the 3.69 in 2007 and 3.84 in 2006.
Luckily for Fangraphs fans, David recently added the swing data, which adds new avenues of exploration. Furcal is swinging at three percent less pitches outside of the zone, relative to last season, but is making contact three percent more often. His selectivity can be seen on an overall level, too, as he is swinging about five percent less at pitches inside the strike zone while maintaining his contact rate from a year ago; pitchers have also been throwing more in the zone to him.
Has something clicked? Will Furcal establish a new level of production? The signs tend to suggest he will not be this productive all season but, if he can remain selective and wait for “his pitch,” he may be able to sustain these contact rates.
While his likely regression will prevent him from an OPS over 1.000 come September it does not mean his season cannot continue to be stellar. He has been an integral part of a Dodgers team that has caught fire and it will be very interesting to see what happens to the success of the team if and when his flame begins to flicker.