Archive for Randy Johnson

Recording 20 strikeouts is an amazing feat — and a rare one, too: this past Wednesday, Max Scherzer joined Roger Clemens, Kerry Wood, and Randy Johnson as the only players ever to accomplish it in nine innings. What they’ve done is exceptional and, naturally, separates them from other pitchers. And while similar, each performance occurred in the context of different variables which made it distinct: era, opponent, ballpark, etc. No one is required to decide which pitcher faced the most challenging set of circumstances among those five games (Clemens did it twice). Yet, I’ve elected to make an attempt, anyway.

When first trying to understand which game posed the most difficultly, we immediately turn to the opponent. Roger Clemens, for example, achieved both of his 20-strikeout games with the designated hitter in play. Striking out 20 players of major-league caliber — regardless of how low they are on that particular scale — is still incredibly difficult. It’s more difficult to record 20 strikeouts against good hitters. The Detroit Tigers lineup Scherzer faced, meanwhile, is a top-heavy one. But solid overall, even if it didn’t feature a DH.

The table below depicts the lineup the Tigers deployed against Scherzer as well as each respective hitter’s rest-of-season projected numbers for wRC+ and strikeout percentage. (Jordan Zimmermann‘s career numbers were used, and his strikeout percentage and wRC+ were combined proportionally with pinch-hitter Jarrod Saltalamacchia’s. Weighted average accounts for the top of the order getting more plate appearances than the bottom)

Tigers Lineup Against Max Scherzer

Player	wRC+
Ian Kinsler	101
J.D. Martinez	124
Miguel Cabrera	145
Victor Martinez	119
Justin Upton	118
James McCann	71
Anthony Gose	80
Jose Iglesias	84
Jordan Zimmermann	33
AVERAGE	97
Weighted AVG	100

*Zimmerman’s wRC+ averaged proportionally with pinch-hitter Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

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Yesterday, Dave discussed the Jon Garland signing, largely criticizing the acquisition based on the fact that they failed to offer Randy Johnson, a superior pitcher even at this stage, a deal as lucrative. While I am not going to continue the discussion about that particular signing, the idea arose that 200 innings from Garland is less productive than 120 or so innings from Johnson should he sustain injuries. This reminded me of something Tango posted last year showing that Albert Pujols‘ numbers were almost equivalent to the production of Mark Teixeira and Jeff Francoeur combined. Whew, spelled both correctly.

All too often, injury-prone pitchers are written off as ineffective. This could not be further from the truth as certain pitchers who fit this mold are wildly productive in the time they spend on the field. Even though they fail to stay healthy enough to log 200 IP in 35 GS, they end up posting some very solid numbers.

Take a look at Ben Sheets, for starters, who produced a 2.43 FIP in 106 IP back in the 2006 season. He made 17 starts, with a 9.83 K/9 and 0.93 BB/9, good for a K/BB of 10.55. Even with a .344 BABIP and 67% LOB, Sheets still managed a 3.82 ERA. All told, his half-season produced +4.0 wins. In the same season, the aforementioned Garland produced +3.9 wins in 211 innings. Yes, Sheets was slightly more productive than Garland even though he pitched almost exactly half of the innings.

This is not the only example either. In 2007, Randy Johnson made just 10 starts, pitching in 56 innings. His 3.20 FIP and 5.54 K/BB helped him produce +1.6 wins that season. In one-fourth of the season, he produced more than 200 innings of Tom Glavine, or 170 innings of Boof Bonser. His win value also surpassed the combined output of Kip Wells, Livan Hernandez, and Scott Olsen in ~520 IP.

Granted, we never know what would have happened if the injured pitchers lasted the entire season. Still, do you really believe Johnson and Sheets would have declined so rapidly that their statistics would drop them into the average category? When pitchers with half of a season or so of statistics are evaluated, the most common reaction is to think they could not possibly be as productive as innings-eaters who stay on the field. This simply is not a universal truth. 106 IP of Ben Sheets in 2006 (+4 wins) + 105 IP of Replacement Level pitching (+0 wins) is equal to, or greater than, 211 IP of Jon Garland (+3.9 wins).

Examples like this will not always surface, but injury-prone pitchers do have value, even if that value is only seen for half of a season.

We’ve discussed here as well as at Statistically Speaking with regards to Pedro Martinez’s pitching in 1999-2000 as perhaps the best we have ever seen, but another peak for a different pitcher in a similar span should not be overlooked. Though the numbers compiled in this peak may not be as impressive in the grand scheme of things they point to a domination of hitters. I’m speaking of Randy Johnson and his performance from 1999-2002.

For starters, here are some of his peripheral numbers in each of these seasons:

1999: 35 GS, 271.2 IP, 207 H, 75 ER, 70 BB, 364 K, 1.02 WHIP, 2.48 ERA, 2.75 FIP
2000: 35 GS, 248.2 IP, 202 H, 73 ER, 76 BB, 347 K, 1.12 WHIP, 2.64 ERA, 2.53 FIP
2001: 34 GS, 249.2 IP, 181 H, 69 ER, 71 BB, 372 K, 1.01 WHIP, 2.49 ERA, 2.12 FIP
2002: 35 GS, 260.0 IP, 197 H, 67 ER, 71 BB, 334 K, 1.03 WHIP, 2.32 ERA, 2.66 FIP

Let those babies sink in. Those are four absolutely ridiculous seasons. His 2000 campaign “looks” worse than the other three seasons yet his FIP of 2.53 comes in as the second lowest. In 1999 he led the NL in ERA, CG, IP, and Strikeouts. In fact, his 364 K outranked everyone by a very wide margin; second place was Kevin Brown and his measly-in-comparison 221 punchouts. He also finished second in WHIP by two-hundredths of a point.

The following season he again ranked in the top three in just about every category, finishing first in CG and K (347 to Chan Ho Park’s 217); he also finished 2nd in ERA and 3rd in IP and WHIP. In 2001, he led the league in ERA, Strikeouts, and WHIP while finishing 2nd in IP to teammate Curt Schilling. And in 2002, he led in ERA, CG, IP, and Strikeouts while finishing 3rd in WHIP. Those are just the peripheral numbers.

In terms of Win Probability, here are his WPA/LI and REW numbers, as well as their ranks in each of these seasons:

1999: 5.04 WPA/LI (1st), 5.93 REW (1st)
2000: 4.41 WPA/LI (2nd), 4.82 REW (1st)
2001: 5.84 WPA/LI (1st), 6.25 REW (1st)
2002: 4.43 WPA/LI (2nd), 5.91 REW (1st)

We all know RJ as a strikeout machine, and his K/9 counts in these four seasons did not disappoint. 12.06 in ’99, 12.56 in ’00, 13.41 in ’01, and 11.56 in ’02. He of course led the league in each of these seasons. Equally impressive are his K/BB ratios; it isn’t as if he struck out a ton of batters but walked many as well. No, Johnson’s lowest K/BB in this span was 4.57 in 2000. In 1999 he clocked in at 5.20; a 5.24 in 2001, and a 4.70 in 2002. These ratios placed him either second or third in each season.

All told, Johnson led the league or finished no lower than third in all of these categories for four straight seasons. He is without a doubt a Hall of Fame pitcher and the kind of guy whose starts used to be considered “events.” While it usually takes a few years after a player retires to detach ourselves from the most recent performance—for instance, it’s tough to really remember every facet of Johnson’s peak when we see his most recent seasons on the Yankees and again DBacks—let’s not forget that the man who induced a Lou Collins flyout in the film Little Big League had arguably the second best peak in baseball history.