The non-appendix portion of The Book is 367 pages long. Chapter 9, “To Sacrifice or Not” is 50 pages long and represents nearly 14% of the entire book. The math within may not be for everyone to read, but the information is simplified with the addition of several “The Book Says” callouts that would be easy for any reader, say a manager, to find.
Ron Washington tells us to take those “analytics on that and shove it up our [bleep][bleep]”
Roy Oswalt is getting closer to signing a contract, and while his reported preference is to pitch for one of the Rangers, Cardinals or Braves, the surprising first-place Orioles are quickly emerging as a dark horse candidate for his services. The Orioles may have lost a recent waiver claim to the Rangers based on their better record — which is still strange to type — but an aggressive pursuit of Oswalt, with a relatively lofty salary for three months, may pry him away from the Rangers, the current favorites in his sweepstakes.
The Orioles have been diligent in their pursuit to date, with Dan Duquette avoiding the topic or speaking in generalities when Oswalt is mentioned. Though he may not want to reveal his hand, the club has to have interest in Oswalt on some level.
Pitching is one of their biggest needs — despite relatively strong performance early on — and he is the perfect type of pitcher for the Orioles to pursue: he won’t cost a ton for half of a season, won’t require a commitment beyond this season, and is frankly better than some currently staffed rotation members.
One of my favorite moments in baseball this decade occurred when Bobby Abreu broke all home run derby records in Detroit, garnering thunderous applause from hordes of fans who, quite honestly, had probably never heard of him before. Watching Josh Hamilton’s performance in the 2008 derby, however, seemed to dwarf that moment. Putting on that display at Yankee Stadium, complete with his overly discussed past personal issues, was definitely a highlighted moment of this past season. About a week prior to the derby, Hamilton put that beautiful swing to use to deliver the seventh biggest swing in win expectancy from an offensive standpoint.
As you can see, the game took place on July 9, against the Angels. In case this moment has yet to click for you, this was the highly publicized game during which Josh Hamilton hit the walkoff home run against Francisco Rodriguez. Without exaggerating, I probably saw the highlight fifteen times from July 9 until the end of the month. Granted, the play itself was pretty amazing to watch develop.
The game was knotted at 2-2 until Juan Rivera hit a two run home run in the seventh inning. This put the Halos up 4-2, and the score would remain the same until the bottom of the ninth. Rodriguez entered the game and, at that juncture of the season, had posted a 1.88 ERA and .538 OPS against in 41 appearances. He had also recorded 35 saves out of his record-breaking saves total.
At the start of the frame, the Rangers had a 13.3% probability of winning. Ramon Vazquez led off with a walk, increasing the expectancy to 23.7%. K-Rod promptly fanned Ian Kinsler to bring it back down to 14.4%. Frank Catalanotto then grounded out, advancing Vazquez to second base. Despite having a runner in scoring position, in trailing by two runs, with two outs, the Rangers had a 6.4% probability of winning the game. Had Hamilton’s big play come next, it would have been, by far, the top play of the year. What actually followed was an RBI single to leftfield off the bat of Michael Young, increasing their chances to 12.6%.
Young then stole second base with Hamilton at the dish, which resulted in a jump to 17.1%. Then, on a 3-1 count, Hamilton demolished the ball, hitting a walkoff two-run homer. The play, which saw a swing in win expectancy of 82.9%, was the seventh biggest of the season. K-Rod didn’t necessarily have a breakdown afterwards, preventing a run from scoring in each of his next seven outings, but Hamilton’s home run definitely helped cap off an extremely impressive first half for a player with an extremely interesting story.
The Texas Rangers are known this year for a very, very potent offense. With Josh Hamilton, Milton Bradley, and Ian Kinsler all producing top-of-the-league numbers it becomes very easy to overlook other contributing players on the team. Granted, none of these players are in the pitching department, but Marlon Byrd is having a very solid season and, over the last two weeks has arguably been the best player in baseball.
Byrd has had an interesting and underachieving career. He was once considered a super-prospect in the Phillies farm system but never met expectations in red pinstripes and soon found himself sent packing to the Nationals in exchange for Endy Chavez… yes, the Mets legend once played for the Phillies! He then signed with the Rangers as a free agent prior to the 2007 season and remains there today, roaming all three positions in the outfield.
In 82 games this season, Byrd has produced a .298/.381/.477 slash line, good for an OPS+ of 128. He also has an RZR (fielding metric developed at The Hardball Times) of .957. Though he doesn’t technically qualify for inclusion on their leaderboard, the current leader in the outfield is Adam Jones of the Orioles, whose RZR is .948. Take from that what you will.
Though Byrd’s seasonal line is pretty impressive, he has been extremely hot lately. Since July 8, he has hit .383/.463/.636, for a 1.099 OPS, drawing 14 free passes and fanning just seven times in these 29 games. Since the start of August, however, Byrd has been even better. Using the ‘Last 14 Days’ filter here at Fangraphs, Byrd is hitting .480/.559/.740, a 1.299 OPS. His WPA/LI is 0.84 in this span, which ranks atop the American League. Additionally, his BRAA (12.65) and REW (1.22) rank above all other AL players.
Now, The Book showed us that hot streaks, even the most flammable of the bunch, have next to no predictive value with regards to what will happen from that point on. So, it isn’t to say that because Byrd has produced these numbers over the last two weeks that he will continue to stay hot, or has any type of advantage over someone not as hot lately. Still, he has had a good season thus far and I think it’s safe to say very few people have noticed.
Is he living up to the potential that made its way into his corner as a minor leaguer? No, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a quality major league player
Without checking, can you name the top five players with the highest OPS totals from the beginning of last season until right now, with at least 100 games played? On second thought, this won’t work as well as I had planned, since there is no way for me to know who you named. In that case, I’ll just list them:
Chipper Jones, 1.058
Alex Rodriguez, 1.056
Barry Bonds, 1.045
Albert Pujols, 1.028
Milton Bradley, 1.015
Yes, Milton Bradley ranks fifth behind these four surefire (in my book, at least) Hall of Fame players with regards to offensive production via OPS. Bradley and his 2.16 WPA currently ranks third in the AL behind only Manny Ramirez and teammate Josh Hamilton. Additionally, he has a 2.81 WPA/LI that leads the league and an equal 2.81 REW that ranks second behind Hamilton’s 2.83.
In 64 games this season he has a .332/.452/.627 slash line—good for an OPS of 1.079—as well as a .295 ISO and .384 BABIP. Astonishingly, each component of that slash line ranks atop the American League leaderboard. His .332 BA is tied with Alex Rodriguez, and his OBP/SLG come in ahead of everyone else in his league.
When the Padres acquired him last season Bradley provided a spark and energy that came close to propelling the team into the playoffs. If not for a freak injury suffered at the hands of his manager, they might have played into October. Here are Bradley’s 2008 numbers stacked up next to his 2007 numbers with the Padres:
2007 w/SDP: 42 GP, 45-144, 11 HR, 30 RBI, 23 BB, 27 K, .313/.414/.590
2008 w/Tex: 64 GP, 73-220, 15 HR, 48 RBI, 47 BB, 54 K, .332/.452/.627
All told, since July 8th, 2007, Bradley has a .324/.439/.613 line in 106 games, complete with 26 HR, 78 RBI, and a 1.052 OPS. The guy may have some personality issues and he may have struggled to find a “home” throughout his career thus far, but this guy can flat out rake.
It is not uncommon for a famous or successful closer to either hang around too long or accept a lesser bullpen role as he gets up there in age. Eddie Guardado, however, has gone from starter, to reliable reliever, to famous and successful closer, to a “he’s still pitching??” guy, to a forgotten entity, all the way to a big part of the Texas Rangers’ early relative success. I say relative success due to their current performance vastly exceeding pre-season expectations.
In 24 games this season, Guardado has pitched 20.2 IP, giving up 15 hits, while walking six and striking out ten. Just one of those hits has been a home run. His performance has garnered a 3.05 ERA, 3.51 FIP, and 1.02 WHIP. Of those 24 games, just three have resulted in an overall negative WPA, and one of them was a miniscule -0.007. In fact, when we look at what I am officially calling The WPA Slash (WPA/WPA-LI/Clutch) Guardado has a very productive 1.18/0.58/0.53.
His K/9 of 4.35 is abnormally low when compared to his past rates; in fact, the last time it dipped this low in a full season was 1993, his rookie year, when he actually started 16 of his 19 games. A strikeout rate that low suggests hitters are making plenty of contact off Guardado, meaning the majority of his outs have come from balls put in play. We may expect pitchers with a high percentage of balls in play to in turn have high BABIPs—more balls in play would provide more opportunity for those balls to fall in for hits—however Eddie’s is currently a miniscule .225. While it has been speculated that elite relievers may consistently post lower BABIPs it is not very likely he will sustain one this low while simultaneously sustaining that low of a strikeout rate.
Still, the man with the rubber arm has helped stabilize an otherwise suspect bullpen, in turn helping the Rangers to a 34-34 start.
Last year, the Texas Rangers had arguably the worst statistical pitching rotation in all of baseball, perhaps one of the worst in a long time. Their numbers?
Brandon McCarthy: -1.03 WPA, -7.63 BRAA, 1.59 WHIP, 4.74 FIP, 1.23 K/BB
Kameron Loe: -1.65 WPA, -19.81 BRAA, 1.60 WHIP, 4.66 FIP, 1.39 K/BB
Kevin Millwood: -1.81 WPA, -15.99 BRAA, 1.62 WHIP, 4.55 FIP, 1.84 K/BB
Robinson Tejeda: -2.45 WPA, -27.15 BRAA, 1.78 WHIP, 6.19 FIP, 1.15 K/BB
Vicente Padilla: -2.84 WPA, -22.51 BRAA, 1.63 WHIP, 5.26 FIP, 1.42 K/BB
The rotation cost the rangers about 10 wins on the seasons and finished 93.1 BRBA (Batting Runs Below Average). The lowest WHIP of the group came in at 1.59 and the highest K/BB was 1.84. Additionally, any rotation in which the top FIP is 4.55 is less than stellar. How are the Rangers pitchers performing this year?
Well, Millwood and Padilla are still there but GM Jon Daniels turned in his hand and asked for three new cards in the forms of Kason Gabbard, Jason Jennings, and, gulp, Sidney Ponson. Here are their numbers:
Kason Gabbard: 0-1, 2.12 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 0.79 K/BB, 1.42 WHIP, 0.80 WPA
Kevin Millwood: 2-3, 4.88 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 1.55 K/BB, 1.69 WHIP, 0.41 WPA
Vicente Padilla: 5-2, 3.23 ERA, 4.64 FIP, 1.84 K/BB, 1.42 WHIP, 0.27 WPA
Sidney Ponson: 2-0, 3.16 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 1.33 K/BB, 1.40 WHIP, 0.02 WPA
Jason Jennings: 0-5, 8.56 ERA, 8.07 FIP, 0.67 K/BB, 1.94 WHIP, -1.20 WPA
Though the numbers appear to be better in the early going, just about anything would be better than the numbers from last season.
In just four starts, Ponson has a very solid 3.89 FIP and, an about league average 1.40 WHIP. Overall, though, his 0.02 WPA suggests his efforts have essentially evened out to just about no contribution. Padilla has the highest K/BB and an improved 1.42 WHIP; however, his FIP implies his ERA has been very lucky. Gabbard and Millwood have contributed a good amount, via WPA, but their efforts are cancelled out by Jason Jennings’ terrible performance.
Overall, their rotation this year has an aggregate +0.30 WPA compared to the -9.78 WPA from a year ago. Lastly, here are the rotation averages:
2007: 4.82 FIP, 1.64 WHIP, 1.41 K/BB, -1.96 WPA
2008: 4.94 FIP, 1.56 WHIP, 1.25 K/BB, +0.06 WPA
Take out Jason Jennings and his awful statistics and the 2008 rotation looks a whole lot better, but in the early going, it appears to be very comparable to last season. It is too early to say the rotations are definitively similar in quality but they are currently below average statistically, and Sidney Ponson has not yet imploded.
Brewers reliever Brian Shouse is a late bloomer. Graduating from Bradley University in 1990 he debuted in the big leagues with the Pirates in 1993 albeit for just six mostly ineffective games. For the better part of the 1993 season up until 2002, Shouse shuffled around farm systems, playing for minor league affiliates of the Pirates, Orioles, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Mets, Astros, and Royals. His only other major league experience came with the Red Sox in 1998 as he struggled in only seven appearances prior to a demotion to Pawtucket.
In 2002, nearly ten years after his major league debut, Shouse found himself appearing in 23 games for the Kansas City Royals. While the numbers were subpar–15 hits, 10 runs, and 9 walks in 14.1 innings—he has been on a major league roster ever since.
He was terrific out of the bullpen for the Rangers in 2003 and 2004, going for 105.1 IP in 115 games; he struck out 74 while walking 32 as well as posting a 3.08 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. After a shaky 2005 and just six games in 2006, Shouse was sent to the Brewers for Enrique Cruz and cash. Since arriving in Milwaukee he has been stellar and consistent out of the bullpen. In 2006 he stranded 42 of 56 inherited runners and allowed his own runs in just 10 of his 59 appearances. His ERA of 3.97 may not come off as flashy but specialist relievers can have their numbers vastly changed with one or two bad appearances; since they are usually only in for one out, giving up one run looks much worse in 0.1 IP as opposed to 1.0 IP. In fact, take away an August 29th outing against the Astros, wherein he surrendered four runs, and Shouse finishes 2006 with a 2.91 ERA for the Brewers, allowing just 25 percent of inherited runners to score.
In 2007, Shouse built on his success the previous season by posting this line: 73 G, 47.2 IP, 46 H, 16 ER, 14 BB, 32 K, 3.02 ERA, 1.26 WHIP. On top of that he he allowed just 18 of 78 inherited runners to score. Those numbers are a little skewed as well because eight of those 18 scored in Shouse’s final five appearances. Up until September 16th Shouse had stranded 58 of the 68 runners he inherited.
This year, Shouse has made eight appearances, allowing just one run and five baserunners in 6.1 innings. He has stranded all 11 inherited baserunners, with a .159 BABIP. Shouse truly makes the best of what he has to work with as he primarily throws a 79-80 mph fastball and a 72 mph slider.
His WPA of 0.34 comes down to a WPA/LI of 0.28 due to his appearances largely coinciding with baserunners allowed by other pitchers. Despite this, Shouse has allowed just 32 of 145 inherited runners to score throughout his Brewers tenure, just 22 percent. In fact, of non-closer relievers with at least 120 games in the span of 2006-2008, Shouse ranks tied for seventh in percentage of inherited runners scored. Not too shabby for a near 40-year old with just about 14 years of minor league experience.
Whether or not this will continue is left to be seen but this 39-yr old lefty who failed to find a secure major league home until the age of 35 is definitely doing all he can to show why he belongs.